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Morning Digest: GOP gerrymander pushes Black Democrat into retirementLouisiana Republicans dismantled a majority-Black district to make it heavily white—and deep red
We’re trying something brand new this week: We’re broadcasting The Downballot’s weekly podcast as a video livestream, and we’ll take your questions in realtime! Join us at 5 PM ET on Substack Live by clicking this link or downloading the free Substack app. For regular listeners, you’ll still be able to find the show in your favorite podcast app afterwards. We hope to see you there live! Leading OffLA-06Democratic Rep. Cleo Fields announced on Tuesday that he will run for the state Senate rather than seek reelection to Louisiana’s 6th Congressional District after Republicans passed a new gerrymander that eliminated its Black majority and made it deep red. The previous iteration of the 6th District came into being thanks to litigation under the Voting Rights Act, which found that the state had unlawfully discriminated against Black voters by failing to draw an additional seat where they would have the ability to elect their preferred candidates. Field comfortably won it in 2024, defeating his Republican opponent 51-38. But not only did the Supreme Court strike that district down as an illegal racial gerrymander in April, it also gutted the provisions of the VRA that had barred states from diluting the strength of minority voters by divvying them up between districts. That freed Republicans to dismantle the 6th—which they had just drawn two years earlier—and replace it with a new version that shares little in common with its predecessor beyond its number. Under the old lines, Black residents comprised 55% of the district’s eligible voting-age population, but in the overhauled constituency, they now make up just 26%, according to Dave’s Redistricting App. That shift brought with it a huge political transformation. According to new calculations by The Downballot, Donald Trump would have carried the revamped 6th by a 64-34 margin, making it all but impossible for any Democrat to win it. By contrast, the district that Fields won two years ago went for Kamala Harris 57-42. It’s a painfully familiar experience for Fields, who won his first race for Congress in 1992 in a district that was also drawn to allow Black voters the opportunity to elect their candidates of choice. But after prolonged court battles, that district was likewise invalidated as a racial gerrymander, prompting Fields to forgo a reelection bid in 1996. Instead, the following year he returned to the state Senate, where he’d served previously. He remained there until 2008, when term limits prevented him from running again. In 2019, though, his successor was also term-limited, paving the way for a third comeback. This time, Fields was followed in office by fellow Democrat Larry Selders, who died earlier this month at the age of 44. A date for a special election has not yet been set. Several Republicans are running for the 6th District, most notably state Sen. Rick Edmonds. However, it’s still possible that another state senator, Blake Miguez, could switch over from the 5th District, where he’s running with Trump’s endorsement. Candidates have until Aug. 7 to file. Election RecapsAZ-Gov (R) (52-47 Trump)Rep. Andy Biggs cruised to victory over fellow Rep. Dave Schweikert as all the polling prophesied, but the far-right congressman will match up awkwardly against Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in swingy Arizona. Every poll taken this year has shown Hobbs ahead (though we haven’t seen fresh data in a while), and she’s dominated Biggs in fundraising, too. AZ-01 (R & D) (51-48 Trump)Former state Rep. Amish Shah has likely defeated former TV anchor Marlene Galan-Woods for the Democratic nomination in Arizona’s swingy 1st District. With an estimated three-quarters of the vote counted when we put the Digest to bed, Shah leads 42-32, per the Associated Press. Two years ago, Shah lost to Schweikert 52-48, but the DCCC intervened to help Galan-Woods, reportedly because the committee had a fraught working relationship with Shah in 2024. For the third time this cycle, though, it appears that a candidate preferred by the DCCC has fallen short. The November general election will still be hotly contested no matter what. Republicans nominated former Arizona Cardinals kicker Jay Feely, who beat a pair of opponents on the strength of an endorsement from Donald Trump. Major super PACs for both parties have already made massive ad reservations for the fall that could be used in this district. AZ-04 (D) (53-46 Harris)Moderate Democratic Rep. Greg Stanton comfortably turned back a challenge from his unheralded progressive opponent, activist Kai Newkirk, though his final margin could shrink as more ballots are tallied. With roughly three-quarters of the vote in, Stanton leads Newkirk 68-32. AZ-05 (R) (59-39 Trump)Former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb weathered some weird sex scandals and allegations that he threatened two women to defeat construction contractor Daniel Keenan in the race to replace Biggs. Lamb, a failed 2024 Senate candidate with a history of affiliating with QAnon figures and white nationalists, benefited from Trump’s endorsement. AZ-AG (R)State Senate President Warren Petersen leads attorney Rodney Glassman 56-44 with approximately 65% of the vote counted for the right to take on Democratic Attorney General Kris Mayes, who won four years ago by just 280 votes. There isn’t much contrast between the two GOP candidates, though, as both Petersen and Glassman have spread conspiracy theories about the 2020 election. AZ-SoS (R)Republicans nominated State Rep. Alex Kolodin, an election denier who sued to overturn Trump’s loss to Joe Biden, in the race to take on Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes. While Kolodin will be an easier opponent for Fontes in November than the more sober rival he defeated in the primary, former state GOP chair Gina Swoboda, he’d pose a serious threat to democracy in Arizona should he win. AZ Corporation Commission (R)The three-way Republican primary for Arizona’s Corporation Commission, a powerful body that regulates utilities, was uncalled when we put the Digest to bed, but one incumbent was in serious danger of failing to advance to the general election. Two GOP members of the commission, Nick Myers and Kevin Thompson, are seeking reelection, but they were challenged by far-right state Rep. Ralph Heap, who had argued that the two had failed to support Trump’s pro-coal agenda with sufficient vigor. With approximately three-quarters of the vote counted, Thompson was in first place with 36.2%, while Heap was in second with 32.3% and Myers in third with 31.5%. The top two vote-getters will appear on the ballot, so Heap could leave Myers in the cold if these results hold. Regardless of which candidates the GOP nominates, Democrats Jonathon Hill and Clara Pratte are hoping to flip both seats in the fall (they faced no primary opposition). While all five commissioners are Republicans, Democrats are eager for a good showing this year that could set them up to take control of the board in 2028. SenateME-SenIn addition to former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson, who all but locked up the Democratic nomination for Senate at local party meetings last weekend, two other candidates will compete at Saturday’s statewide convention in Bangor: former government official David Costello and pharmaceutical executive Saundra Pelletier. According to the Maine Morning Star, 478 of the 500 convention delegates who were elected at gatherings in all 16 of the state’s counties on Saturday and Sunday appeared on lists of supporters put out by Jackson’s campaign. Another 101 delegates are members of the state Democratic Party’s governing board, virtually ensuring victory for Jackson. Nonetheless, Costello and Pelletier submitted the necessary 500 voter signatures to also compete at the convention. Costello took 8% of the vote in last month’s Senate primary while Pelletier does not appear to have run for office before. NE-SenRepublican Secretary of State Bob Evnen said on Tuesday that he would accept Democrat Cindy Burbank’s paperwork withdrawing from Nebraska’s Senate race, bringing the contest closer to a one-on-one matchup between independent Dan Osborn and Republican Pete Ricketts. Burbank, who launched her bid with the express intention of dropping out to help Osborn, said she had submitted papers to remove her name from the general election ballot last week. However, Evnen, who previously sought to bar Burbank from running, had indicated he might not allow her to quit. But in a new statement, he acknowledged that, under state law, “when a candidate has declined a nomination by the deadline, the Secretary of State has no discretion to refuse it.” One other candidate remains on the ballot, though: former union official Mike Marvin, who won May’s primary for the Legal Marijuana Now Party. Marvin has not said whether he plans to drop out, but other party members have called him a “Dan Osborn plant,” an accusation he denies. If he chooses to leave the race, he has until Aug. 3 to do so. SC-SenSouth Carolina Rep. Nancy Mace, who opted not to run for the late Sen. Lindsey Graham’s seat earlier this week, has endorsed fellow Rep. Ralph Norman. Graham’s sister, appointed Sen. Darline Graham, previously earned the backing of another member of the state’s congressional delegation, Rep. William Timmons, who expressed his support for the new incumbent before she announced a bid for a full term. The third major Republican running in the Aug. 11 special primary, Rep. Russell Fry, has yet to secure any endorsements from notable figures in North Carolina. Would-be contenders have until Tuesday to file, though the compressed timeline appears to violate a federal law requiring that ballots be mailed to overseas voters at least 45 days in advance of an election. GovernorKY-GovRocky Adkins, a longtime fixture in Kentucky politics who once served as majority leader in the state House, announced on Tuesday that he would run for governor next year. Adkins’ decision makes him the second notable Democrat to enter the race to succeed Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear, who is term-limited. He joins Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman, who kicked off a bid in April. The two have faced off before, albeit not directly: In 2019, Beshear and Coleman defeated Adkins and his running mate, former school board member Stephanie Horne, by a 38-32 margin in the Democratic primary. The Beshear-Coleman ticket went on to oust Republican Gov. Matt Bevin and his No. 2, state Sen. Ralph Alvarado, in a stunning 49.2 to 48.8 upset. Adkins entered Kentucky politics in an era when Democratic victories were routine rather than remarkable. The party had dominated the governor’s mansion and the legislature for decades when Adkins first won a seat in the lower chamber representing eastern Kentucky in 1987. There, he rose to the rank of majority leader by 2004, but in 2016, as Donald Trump was cruising to victory, Democrats finally lost their majority in the House. He continued on as minority leader before running for governor in 2019 and endorsed Beshear after losing the primary. Following his former rival’s win that fall, Adkins became a senior advisor to the new governor, a position he occupied until last week. In launching his new campaign, Adkins cited his long experience in an interview with Spectrum News 1 Kentucky. “I don’t need any special class. I don’t need any special training,” he said. “On day one, I’ll be ready to hit the ground running to be a great governor for the people of the Commonwealth of Kentucky, and I hope they give me the opportunity to do just that.” Republicans will be eager to win back the governorship next year, though none have launched campaigns yet. Possible contenders include Secretary of State Michael Adams, Rep. James Comer, and Rep. Thomas Massie, whose bid for an eighth term came to an end in May when he was defeated by a Trump-backed challenger, former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein. OH-GovBillionaire businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, the GOP nominee for Ohio’s open race for governor, is locked in an extremely tight race with Democrat Amy Acton despite massively outspending her in recent weeks. Acton, a former state health director, spent just $100,000 on advertising together with her supporters from mid-May through the end of June, according to data from AdImpact shared by News 5 Cleveland. During that same time period, by contrast, Ramaswamy and an allied super PAC poured $9 million onto the airwaves. Yet even with that huge gap, a New York Times/Siena poll fielded in the second half of June found the two candidates tied at 47 apiece. Surveys taken earlier this year have shown a similarly close contest. Acton appears to be conserving her resources for now. She raised $10.6 million in the first half of the year, according to new disclosures, while Ramaswamy brought in $10.2 million from donors. However, the wealthy Republican also self-funded $25 million, and with an estimated net worth of almost $3 billion, according to Forbes, he could put in much more. HouseFL-07Republican Rep. Cory Mills is under investigation by the Department of Justice, according to unnamed sources who spoke with MS NOW, though the nature of the probe is not clear. Since at least 2024, the House Ethics Committee has also been investigating Mills for a wide range of alleged wrongdoing, including allegations of sexual misconduct and campaign finance violations. Mills faces three opponents in next month’s primary, chief among them former TV anchor Ryan Elijah. Three Democrats are also hoping to oust Mills, with former NASA chief of staff Bale Dalton receiving the most attention. Dalton outraised Mills by a wide margin in the second quarter of the year, taking in more than $500,000 to just $60,000 for the congressman. The Democrat also ended the month of June with far more cash available, $763,000 versus $81,000 for Mills. IL-04Illinois’ Board of Elections voted unanimously on Tuesday to remove Chicago Alderman Byron Sigcho-Lopez and political organizer Mayra Macias from the general election ballot in the 4th Congressional District, following recommendations issued last week by investigators. Those decisions set up a one-on-one race between Democrat Patty Garcia, the chief of staff to retiring Rep. Chuy Garcia, and Lyons Mayor Chris Getty, a Democrat who is running as an independent. Sigcho-Lopez and Macias had also sought to qualify as unaffiliated candidates after the congressman engineered his retirement to ensure that only his aide (who is not related) would appear on the primary ballot. But officials who examined the signatures they submitted found that both had come up short. (Getty’s submissions went unchallenged.) Under Illinois law, though, independents face a daunting obstacle compared to major-party candidates. Patty Garcia needed to submit just 697 signatures to run as a Democrat, while the independent hopefuls had to collect 10,816. Both Sigcho-Lopez and Macias came up about 1,000 short apiece, according to the state. The matter may not be completely resolved, however, as both disqualified candidates have indicated that legal challenges might be forthcoming. NJ-12A mystifying effort to thwart a Democratic candidate in a safely blue district may have been led by New Jersey power broker George Norcross rather than Republicans, Politico reports. In May, a group with ties to the GOP called the Florence Avenue Initiative spent $265,000 to attack labor organizer Sue Altman, who at the time was running for the open 12th Congressional District. But unlike the many other races that Republicans have meddled in this year, there was no apparent upside here, since the district is hopelessly out of reach for the GOP. In any event, Altman wound up finishing in sixth place with just 8% of the vote. (The ultimate winner was surgeon Adam Hamawy, one of the most progressive candidates in the race.) The mystery prompted reporter Matt Friedman to ask a spokesperson for Norcross, whose influential political machine appears to have a beef with Altman, whether he was involved in the campaign to sabotage her. That aide, Daniel Fee, would not answer the question directly. “Sue Altman lost yet another race — she came in 6th! — because not enough members of the media, who are her only real constituency, reside in the 12th Congressional District, not because of anything George Norcross did or did not do,” Fee said. Friedman dubbed this a “nonanswer” and concluded that “we’d all be better served to not have to read between the lines.” Apparently, though, we have no other choice. Given Fee’s non-denial, we’ve removed this race from our database tracking elections where one party has meddled in another party’s primary, since this appears to have been a case of one Democrat seeking to undermine another. Poll Pile
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