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Monday Afternoon News Update: Groundhog Day in the Gulf –7/27/26
Your midday Monday update has arrived
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Hi all, Ben here. It’s Monday afternoon. I hope you enjoyed your weekend and were able to escape the chaos for a bit. Thanks again to all those who continue to let me know you preordered the book I wrote with my brothers, WTF America?!: The Way Out of This Hell and Back to Democracy. If you preorder your copy today, be sure to let me know in the comments!
We’ve got a lot to catch up on, so let’s start with the headlines.
Here’s what we’re tracking today:
Trump tells Israeli Channel 12 he’s “not going to give Iran that much time,” claims Iran is begging for a deal (yes, again)
Iran’s Foreign Ministry publicly denies any negotiations with the U.S., says talks are only with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz
CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper reportedly recommends halting the Hormuz bombing campaign, says it’s “hit the limit of its effectiveness”
Massive fires at Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq facility, the world’s largest crude processing plant, after drone strikes
Saudi Aramco’s Jizan refinery still burning days after Houthi missile strikes, hit again today
Another U.S. MQ-9A Reaper drone reportedly shot down over Iraq’s Babil province
U.S. troop casualties in the Iran war have surpassed 600
Iran’s Foreign Ministry mocks U.S. “war management,” references the collapsed Saudi nuclear deal
Major Duma session in Russia, Putin says Russia will achieve its objectives in the “Special Military Operation”
Zelenskyy arrives in the UK to meet with Prime Minister Andy Burnham
Netanyahu departs for his eighth meeting with Trump since his election
Israeli National Security Minister Ben-Gvir calls for Israeli settlements in Gaza and encouraging emigration from the territory
Trump demands Senate Majority Leader Thune terminate the filibuster to pass “The SAVE America Act”
Congressional Republicans blame Jimmy Carter and Joe Biden for the war and the economy
NYC Mayor Mamdani defends his criticism of Netanyahu and vows to attend 9/11 memorial services
Mitch McConnell’s office releases a new “proof of life” statement
New CBS poll shows only 13% of Americans, a new low, say Trump’s policies have left them better off financially
Trump jets off to Michigan
Before I go any further, if you haven’t yet joined as a paid subscriber, consider doing so now by clicking here to support our work. This is how we grow. It will give you access to all recaps like this, our exclusive Ask-the-Editor series, and more. Plus, it is the best way to help support the growth of this network.
Now let’s get into it.
More Trump War Chaos
Donald Trump tried to manipulate the markets again this morning by claiming the United States is close to a deal with Iran, and it backfired almost instantly. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei came out and said, in effect, don’t listen to him. According to Baghaei, Iran currently has no negotiations with the United States at all. The only talks happening are with Oman, and those are strictly about arrangements around the Strait of Hormuz, not about ending the war.
Trump, meanwhile, called up Israeli Channel 12, which has become his go-to overseas outlet, and delivered the greatest hits. He told the network the mediating countries asked him not to launch further military operations, that he believes Iran wants a deal, but that “the room to get a deal is very short.” He said he doesn’t have much time, that talks are ongoing, and that he’s ready for “strong military action” if things fail. In other words, it’s Groundhog Day again. He told Axios’s Barak Ravid virtually the same thing almost word for word.
And behind the bravado, there’s a real reason for the retreat. Axios is reporting that CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper actually recommended halting the bombing campaign around the Strait of Hormuz, saying it had hit the limit of its effectiveness. Translation: the United States is running low on precision munitions and interceptors, and this Trump regime got forced into begging for a ceasefire while posting deranged AI-generated victory images claiming we’d taken Kharg Island.
Baghaei also took direct aim at how the war has been “managed,” pointing out that this was supposed to be a war that collapsed Iran within three days and forced a surrender, and five months later the U.S. is stuck in what he called a quagmire of its own making. He also brought up the collapsed Saudi-Iran-U.S. nuclear framework either, arguing the deal fell apart within 24 hours because Israel objects to any regional country having independent nuclear technology, and reminding everyone that peaceful nuclear use is a right under the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Saudi Arabia’s Oil Infrastructure Is on Fire
While all that noise plays out, the actual physical war keeps escalating. Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq facility, Aramco’s largest crude processing plant and the eastern hub of the East-West Pipeline, has a massive column of smoke rising from it after drone strikes hit multiple times over several hours. Satellite imagery shows large fires and visible burn scars across the site, and Sentinel-2 imagery reviewed by Egypt’s Intel Observer shows burn damage across four of six crude processing spheroids there, with two appearing destroyed. Saudi officials claimed their air defenses intercepted drones launched from Iraqi territory, while the Houthis separately claimed responsibility for hitting multiple crude facilities. Abqaiq alone processes something like 5 to 7 percent of the entire global oil supply.
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And it’s not isolated. The Jizan refinery in southwestern Saudi Arabia is still burning more than two days after being hit by Houthi ballistic missiles, with a smoke trail stretching 77 kilometers visible on satellite imagery, and it took additional hits today on top of that. Combined with the earlier strike on Yanbu port infrastructure, that means both ends of Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, the entire strategy meant to bypass a blocked Strait of Hormuz, are now damaged and burning at the same time.
Here’s the bigger picture. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthis control the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Together they’re enforcing a squeeze on tanker traffic while simultaneously destroying the pipeline infrastructure that Gulf states were counting on to route around that squeeze. This looks like a deliberate, sequenced escalation, and years of pipeline construction projects meant to create alternate routes aren’t going to matter if the infrastructure keeps getting hit as fast as it’s built.
On top of that, another U.S. MQ-9A Reaper drone appears to have been shot down over Iraq’s Babil province, reportedly by pro-Iranian militias.
The Real Casualty Numbers
CNN is now reporting that U.S. troop casualties from the Iran war have surpassed 600, with more than 140 wounded service members added to the war casualty database over the weekend. I said weeks ago this number was going to climb, and it has. There are also indications the administration is trying to reclassify killed-in-action and injured designations under a new operational framework.
Russia and Ukraine Updates
Over in Moscow, there was a major State Duma session today. Chairman Volodin opened with “Russia! Putin! Victory!” and Putin followed by declaring Russia will achieve its objectives in the “Special Military Operation.” He called this a historic, difficult, and fateful stage for the country, and said ordinary Russians understand that as clearly as anyone in government does. None of that reads like a leader preparing to negotiate a ceasefire any time soon.
Meanwhile, Zelenskyy has arrived in the UK, where he’s set to meet with Prime Minister Andy Burnham.
Netanyahu Heads to Washington, Again
Netanyahu posted before departing for his eighth meeting with Trump since Trump’s election, more than any other foreign leader has managed, framing it as a mission to secure Israel’s future with Iran topping the agenda. Eight visits.
At the same time, Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir gave an interview arguing there’s no basis for any peace council or dialogue in Gaza, that Hamas needs to be completely crushed, and that he envisions Israeli neighborhoods, settlements, police and military communities built inside Gaza itself.
Trump’s Filibuster Meltdown
Back home, Trump posted a Truth Social rant demanding Senate Majority Leader Thune keep the Senate in session until it passes the Republicans’ voter suppression bill, AKA the SAVE America Act, or better yet, terminates the filibuster entirely so Republicans can ram through the budget and deal with the looming debt ceiling, which he directly compared to 1929. He also warned that whichever party kills the filibuster first will be the one that “survives and thrives,” while the other becomes a “Third World Nation.”
Trump is invoking the Great Depression by name while pushing policies that economists have warned could trigger exactly that kind of collapse. That’s the setup for the blame game he always runs: if the bill fails, it’s Congress’s fault; if the economy collapses afterward, it’s because his plan never got passed. It is the same scheme he’s run his entire career, right before every one of his bankruptcies.
And his allies are already rehearsing their excuses. On Newsmax, Rep. Jack Bergman was asked where things stand with Iran and responded by invoking a “multi-thousand year old” regional history and blaming Jimmy Carter. On Fox Business, Rep. Pat Fallon was asked about affordability and immediately pivoted to blaming Joe Biden. And Rep. Michael Rulli was touting new polling that shows Democrats favored to retake the House this cycle, even as Rulli tried to spin affordability numbers in his own party’s favor.
Mamdani Won’t Back Down
NYC Mayor Mamdani addressed the backlash over his criticism of Netanyahu directly, saying his comments were not personal attacks but statements of objective fact, and that belonging in his city isn’t conditional on how anyone feels about the mayor. He also responded to critics who don’t want him attending 9/11 memorial events this year, saying he intends to stand with the families, survivors, and first responders to honor the day, full stop.
While we’re on Mamdani, there’s actually fresh news today on his city-owned grocery store plan. The mayor released new pricing and stocking details this morning. Prices at the city-run markets will run about 30 percent below regular grocery stores, which his office frames as an offset to the roughly 30 percent jump in food prices New Yorkers have absorbed since 2019, with prices reset monthly. The stores will carry a core set of staples including meat, seafood, produce, cheese, bread, and more than a dozen other kitchen basics.
McConnell’s “Proof of Life”
We got a new “proof of life” photo of Senator Mitch McConnell with his Elaine Chao this morning, alongside a statement from McConnell’s office describing intensive physical therapy and confirming he won’t be attending Fancy Farm in Kentucky this Saturday for the first time in over four decades of attending. Still no video.
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The Numbers Don’t Lie
Last but not least, a new CBS poll asked Americans whether Trump’s policies are making them better off financially. Only 13 percent said yes, a new low. Fifty-eight percent said worse off. The net “better off” score has fallen 57 points since expectations measured back in January 2025.
That’s it for now. More to come! Buckle up, folks. We’re under 100 days out from the midterm elections.
And if you haven’t yet, preorder WTF America.
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"NYC Mayor Mamdani defends his criticism of Netanyahu and vows to attend 9/11 memorial services"
Well done. You should be there, you are the mayor of NYC. It shouldn't matter your religious affiliation.
Among the victims of the Sept. 11 attack were Muslims, as well as people of many other religions. Also, not all the victims were Americans. Many other countries lost citizens in the attack on the twin towers.
Exactly. That was my point. The criticism is based solely on his religion from these racist people.
I just hope the MTN stands with Mamdani on this and not with AiIPAC Shikur Jeffires who never showed up for Mayor Mamdani's victory celebration.
9/11 was carried out by extremists, not mainstream members of their culture and religion
Right. The new "proof of life" photo isn't proving anything. It raises more questions actually. IMO he looks 5-10 years younger than he did 2 months ago. I'm very disappointed in Andy Beshear. I thought he was stronger than that. I was so wrong.
They’re keeping McConnell “alive” until August 3rd when the time runs out that Beshear can fill that seat and have to wait for the election!
Right. This guy voted for us to lose health benefits but he's being well taken care of with our tax dollars. That is if he's even alive.
august 4 there will be an announcement that he had a "sudden" set back and died.
Yep. They’re stalling until the 8/3 deadline. In the meantime they’re playing “Weekend at Bernie’s “.
Ahh Bernie! Perfect end for Mitch. He will not be remembered kindly in history. What he said about his wife he should have stuck a knife in him.
Great Visibility Brigade !….MITCH MCCONNELL IS ON ETERNITY LEAVE
https://www.reddit.com/r/ProgressiveHQ/comments/1v4qj44/mitch_mcconnell_is_on_eternity_leave/
I thought so, too, at first, but if you do a close comparison the facial expressions are a bit different and the heads are tilted a bit differently. However, they are extremely similar which makes me suspect it is the only pose that they can use to make him look somewhat normal. Again, look at how she is gripping his arm in a strange way, I think to keep it in place.
Well, he's always had mobility problems since having polio when he was young, but surely if he could stand up they would have taken a photo of him standing. His expression in both photos also looks rather blank, the way he did when he'd freeze on camera a few times over the last couple (?) years. I doubt his mind is firing on all thrusters.
It’s AI for sure. But all the memes that come out late in the afternoon, evening are really hilarious 😂
Look closely at this photo and the previous one.
--In both, McConnell's left eye is partially closed and not focused.
--His wife is gripping his arm like she is holding it in place, not in a normal hand-on-arm pose. A lot of sites have cropped the photo to remove this.
--In both photos, the two of them are looking in different directions which is odd.
--I totally agree that his face looks so different and so much smoother than it did a few months ago. I think it is quite swollen.
--My other impression is that in both photos his shirt is wrinkled in odd ways, not the way a shirt hangs when you've been actually wearing it and moving in it. The shirts are also oversized. The seams connecting the arms and the body of the shirt are way over his shoulders.
There is definitely something very fishy about these photos. Obviously, if he really is as well as they are saying, he'd be on video. I suspect that he can't speak any more.
Bibi meeting with Trump again only means one thing. More war. More war crimes. More money from our tax dollars. More deaths.
Considering how gullible Trump is, Bibi could talk him into doing anything at all.
I don’t call him bibi I call him Nutty Nety and he’s 8th visit to the W.H. What does that tell me? It tells me that we’re in for more trouble with this guy. He’s here to get more money for munitions. Our taxpayer dollars will be used to pay for his war with the Gaza Strip. I’m so sick and tired of watching my taxes go to waste for other countries but nothing for our country. Trump and Nutty Nety are 2 that have committed war crimes against humanity in their own countries. They should be held accountable
I'm so tired of seeing our money used to attack helpless people who have nothing & no way to defend themselves!
I like that, "Nutty Nety." You're absolutely right. Don't forget, he's also here to push the merging of the militaries as well.
Jennifer Welch on IHIP has forever said that 30% was far to high!!!! She called it months before anyone else ever thought it up!!........'it should be in the teens".....and now it is!!!!!!! 13%...thank you CBS!!!!
Thats is why I have pre-oredered 5 copies of "Not Today Fascissts"!
Sorry byt WTF will have to wait!!
Merging the militaries on whose dime, and who will be in command?
I hope bulillybibi gets arrested and delivered to international police! djt®ime too!
Wishful thinking. Highly unlikely though. Sad but true.
But they’re almost out of ammunition, now what, maybe they’re going digging in the closets for sling shots & bow an arrows! What a totally FUBAR!
Yep. These two war criminals scheming.
How much more money will Trump and family get from the Gulf?
As much as they can! Example, its like that game show where a person is given a shopping cart and a set time to fill & keep what you can load in it in that allotted time. The trumps have the cart & the allotted time, it’s game on for them! So how much, again AS MUCH AS THEY CAN!
Thank you! The Trumps will take as much as they can. Now, If the Saudi oil fields are continually attacked by various Shia groups, what will the Saudis still give?
A lot, they're grafting military suppliers and selling gov. contracts! And covering up Rump-Epstein files, priceless for djt & regime!
Someone zoom in on his wife’s watch and see if there is a date.
It wont zoom in enough to see clearly! But really good idea!
Jimmy Carter! They’re really reaching into the magicians hat!
What Netanyahu has that the Gulf states need is Iron Dome. Same with Ukraine.
Trump's handlers AI: Co-Production and Revenue AllocationBecause the U.S. government has provided billions in funding for the Iron Dome, congress attaches a strict requirement: a massive portion of the money must be spent directly on U.S. manufacturers.
RTX (Raytheon) is the primary U.S. partner to Israel's Rafael Advanced Defense Systems.
More than 70% of the components for the Iron Dome's "Tamir" interceptor missiles are manufactured via the Raytheon supply chain in the United States across multiple states.Foreign military aid packages—such as the billions approved recently—act as a financial pass-through that goes straight into U.S. defense production lines to build up interceptor stockpiles
Ukraine was rejected -- Trump as Krasnov?
This could be the big deal -- Abraham Accords + stick it to Iran's principal ally.
IMHO the enriched uranium Saudi deal is completely nuts. Encourages Iran to be a nuclear layer. We have technology to promote inert thorium rather than uranium if they really need nuclear energy.
If Trump wants to scare every oil producer, just unleash American alternative energy. Force refineries to cut prices and increase production. Canada has 10 and Mexico has 4 refineries that can help us cut prices today. Maybe the Defense Department should be in the refinery business. .
Trump pauses the Iran war and can't wait for Netanyahu to arrive to tell him what to do.
We need to distance ourselves from Bibi Netenyahu.
I'm in favor of a far more distant relationship with Israel.
Someone has to hand Donny Dumb Dumb his brains. I wish it was Zelensky not Netanyahu
I pre-ordered your book last week. By the way, I'm not buying that latest proof of life photo either.
McConnell proof of life is more like proof of AI
it really sucks that Iran is more believable than Trump. We are screwed if we cannot check this madman. VOTE VOTE VOTE
Pay attention to rules changing re voting and make sure you're enrolled. I hope his R suckups know that food will not magically appear if we keep the SOH closed, and oil.
Thx MTN.🙈🙉💕
By all accounts she is still in China. He looks like he got a face lift while getting ‘intensive physical therapy’. Not sufficient evidence without audio!
When will this autocratic, unhinged abuse of power end? Congress continues to allow this demented, reactive, irresponsible mobster to do whatever he wants to avoid accountability for an of his illegal actions, ENOUGH IS TOO MUCH!
Trump learned all he knows about War from Putin.
Whoever is briefing the MAGA talking-heads about their talking-points ought to clue them in that the mere mention of the names "Biden", "Obama", "Clinton", "Carter", or even "JFK" in anything smelling like or resembling finger-pointing or a blame-game is a trigger for automatically shutting-down: zero-listening, zero-attention, zero-connection, zero-engagement, zero-patience, no-nothing.
But if we stop bombing, how will Pete prove to his Daddy that he isn't gay?
Netan-the-yahoo to me.
Happy to know that some people read all three of Gulliver's Travels.
It’s all about Tuesday—when Bibi arrives. Trump is waiting for Netanyahu to tell him what to do.
Pre-ordered WTF America! Also, Democrats and Independents must strongly and publicly call out Republicans who are currently attempting to distance themselves from Donald Trump. Republicans cannot simply detach themselves from this administration's actions and corruption. Republicans have allowed this situation to develop and it continues because they haven't impeached Trump and all his Loyal Losers. Especially with the Mid-terms, Democrats need to be shouting from the rooftops.
That looks like another fake picture of Mitch. Chao is way too young looking. The former one they sent out was fake as well. Chao was photoshopped into an old hospital room picture of Mitch when he had rehab after a fall several years ago. Chao's picture in that one was from a really old picture of her & Mitch sitting in chairs beside a pool with drinks in their hands. She was wearing a white blouse & Mitch was wearing his pink checkered shirt, both sitting beside a pool. This is getting so ridiculous! KY governor should get a DC judge to issue a warrant for a recent medical report from the CEO of the hospital Mitch is in. Then he should just call a special election. Mitch would have just appointed a person long ago if he were the KY governor!!
Somebody tell MAGA that Jimmy Carter is DEAD, and that Joe Biden left office on January 20, 2025.
It's possible that Iran has been conducting informal, off-the-record negotiations with the US, but it certainly hasn't begged nor will it beg for any talks with the Americans to end this war. It doesn't need to beg for anything. You can bet that Benjamin Netanyahu does not believe Trump, even for a second, and I certainly don't.
Putin seems to be borrowing Trump’s same lies. Perhaps he’s losing it just like Trump.