| | |  | BY STEVEN SHEPARD | | 
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis trails former President Donald Trump in recent polling. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images | EARLY DAYS — There are still 10 months to go before Republican voters actually begin choosing between Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis and numerous other candidates to be the GOP’s 2024 presidential nominee. But the former president is already taking something of a victory lap. DeSantis, Trump bragged this weekend at a rally in Waco, Texas, is “dropping like a rock.” That’s overstating the case. But it’s true that DeSantis, who hasn’t even announced he’s running for president, is receiving the kind of scrutiny reserved for frontrunning candidates — and the attendant slippage in national polling that can come with it. Just last week, polls from Monmouth and Quinnipiac universities showed Trump gaining on DeSantis. Trump netted 14 points against DeSantis in the Monmouth poll, compared to last month, and 8 points in the Quinnipiac poll. Most notably, Trump’s gains appeared to be concentrated among the voters most skeptical of his candidacy eight years ago: those with higher incomes and greater levels of educational attainment. On balance, those groups still lean away from the former president and toward DeSantis as Trump’s leading competitor. But any gains from Trump among this cohort severely damages the chances of dethroning him next year. The good news for DeSantis? There are some polls, including in the key early states, that suggest the Florida governor is still neck-and-neck with Trump at the top of the field. And, of course, there’s no national primary — just a succession of contests, each influenced by those coming before. That’s one reason why new polling showing DeSantis tied with Trump in Iowa and down by 12 points (but deadlocked in a hypothetical head-to-head race) in New Hampshire raised eyebrows. The polls, from the major GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies, were first reported by Axios and were conducted last week for an unidentified outside group (polls without an identified sponsor do not meet POLITICO’s standards for reporting). It’s not surprising that Trump would be weaker in Iowa — where he finished second to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in the 2016 GOP caucuses — than New Hampshire, where Trump’s victory in the first-in-the-nation primary the next week started his march to the nomination. Taken together, the national and state polling points to a competitive race — but one where Trump has an undeniable early advantage. So what’s next for Trump, DeSantis and the rest of the field? There’s the Florida governor’s all-but-inevitable formal entry to the presidential race this spring. History (and political science literature) says most major candidates see a bump in their poll numbers after their campaign rollouts. Of course, there’s the likely — though perhaps not as imminent as previously reported — Trump indictment in New York (and perhaps others to follow in Atlanta and federal courts). Trump’s scandals are already largely baked in among the Republican electorate, though constant reminders of his legal jeopardy could threaten his standing among less enthusiastic supporters as the primary voting nears. And then there’s the made-for-television element of the campaign: the debates, which will begin in August. These are make-or-break moments, especially for DeSantis and other first time candidates who’ve never been tested in that format or before that large an audience. Amy Walter, the publisher of the Cook Political Report, noted this week that 24 million people watched the first Republican primary debate eight years ago — a far greater number than are actively following the campaign at this early stage. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at sshepard@politico.com or on Twitter at @POLITICO_Steve .
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| | OIN POLITICO ON 4/5 FOR THE 2023 RECAST POWER LIST: America’s demographics and power dynamics are changing — and POLITICO is recasting how it covers the intersection of race, identity, politics and policy. Join us for a conversation on the themes of the 2023 Recast Power List that will examine America’s decision-making tables, who gets to sit at them, and the challenges that still need to be addressed. REGISTER HERE . | | | | | | | — Judge says Pence must testify to Jan. 6 grand jury: A federal judge presiding over the special counsel investigation into Trump’s attempt to subvert the 2020 election has largely rejected an effort by the ex-president to assert executive privilege over the testimony of his former vice president, Mike Pence , according to a person familiar with the ruling. However, Chief U.S. District Judge James Boasberg agreed that Pence does enjoy a degree of immunity from testifying due to his role as president of the Senate on Jan. 6. — Austin admits admin should’ve notified Congress ‘earlier’ about Syria strike: The Biden administration should have notified Congress about a deadly attack on an American contractor in Syria “earlier” than it did , Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told lawmakers. During a Senate Armed Services hearing, lawmakers pressed Austin on a more than 13-hour lag between a drone attack launched by Iranian proxies last Thursday that killed a U.S. contractor and wounded six other Americans. The remark comes as Republicans question whether the information was withheld to avoid influencing a war powers vote. — White House: U.S. has no current plans for Netanyahu visit: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not have any current plans to visit the United States following days of mass protests in Israel over plans for a judicial overhaul. This morning, U.S. Ambassador to Israel Tom Nides said in a radio interview that the White House would soon invite Netanyahu to visit. But a White House spokesperson told reporters earlier today that “Prime Minister Netanyahu will likely take a visit at some point, but there’s nothing currently planned.”
| | ISRAEL IS THE NEW IOWA — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who once vowed to be the most “pro-Israel governor in America,” will make his second visit to the nation right before he’s expected to jump into the 2024 presidential race. His late April trip abroad will come after swings through several states next month, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Utah , reports POLITICO’s Gary Fineout. CAGEY CHRISTIE — Chris Christie reunited a group of his New Hampshire backers on Monday night, when he returned to the state for a town hall at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics — a prerequisite for any presidential hopeful — followed by a private dinner with close friends, former supporters and some donors. The former New Jersey GOP governor was cagey about whether he is actually running for president again in 2024 , writes POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky. But if he is — he’s said a decision could come in 45 to 60 days — he spelled out a clear lane for himself as Trump’s critic in chief. THE CRUZ CREW — Several former top lieutenants from Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-Texas) 2016 presidential campaign have gravitated to DeSantis, Trump’s likely top competitor in the 2024 primary, reports Yahoo News’ Tom LoBianco . The question now is whether they can draw on that 2016 experience — the failures, the successes, the lessons learned — in order to beat Trump next year.
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Newly elected leader of the Scottish National Party Humza Yousaf will replace Nicola Sturgeon as Scotland’s first minister on Wednesday. | Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images | SNP SHAKEUP — Humza Yousaf will replace Nicola Sturgeon as Scotland’s first minister on Wednesday , after the Scottish parliament nominated the new SNP leader in a vote earlier today, writes Andrew McDonald . The 37-year-old was elected as leader of the pro-independence SNP party Monday, narrowly defeating Finance Secretary Kate Forbes following a divisive leadership contest. After second preference votes were taken into account, he won 52.1 percent of the vote compared to 47.9 percent for Forbes. Currently first minister-designate, Yousaf will formally become first minister tomorrow morning when he is sworn in at the Court of Session. He will be Scotland’s youngest leader since devolution, as well as the first Muslim to head up the devolved government. The long-serving Sturgeon’s resignation as party leader in February kicked off the leadership contest, which proved to be a fractious contest between Yousaf, Forbes and the third, anti-establishment, candidate Ash Regan.
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| | GO INSIDE THE 2023 MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: POLITICO is proud to partner with the Milken Institute to produce a special edition "Global Insider" newsletter featuring exclusive coverage, insider nuggets and unparalleled insights from the 2023 Global Conference, which will convene leaders in health, finance, politics, philanthropy and entertainment from April 30-May 3. This year’s theme, Advancing a Thriving World , will challenge and inspire attendees to lean into building an optimistic coalition capable of tackling the issues and inequities we collectively face. Don’t miss a thing — subscribe today for a front row seat . | | | | | | | | |
$100 million The security aid Vice President Kamala Harris pledged to provide West African countries as concern over rising terrorism and violence from extremist groups ripple through the region. At least $86 million will be provided within three years to the nations of Ghana, Benin, Ivory Coast, Guinea and Togo. Harris opened her weeklong trip to the African continent by promising to enhance the U.S. relationship with the continent amid growing competition from China and Russia. |
| | | A PRETTY PENNY — There have been significant advances in cancer treatment over the past decade. There is still a lot of luck involved in a diagnosis: where the cancer is located and how early it’s caught among the most significant. A cancer diagnosis today, though, is far from a death sentence. And yet, it can be destructive in another way. New treatments are remarkably expensive, and even if patients have insurance, co-pays can run up the bill in a way that can bankrupt even people or families that had reasonable savings. Reporting for The Baffler, Libby Watson blends personal experience with her mother’s cancer diagnosis with reporting about everything that “curing cancer” means today.
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Jeremy Strong, from left, Sarah Snook and Kieran Culkin in a scene from the fourth season of "Succession." | HBO via AP Photo | WHO WANTS TO BE A MEDIA MOGUL — HBO’s “Succession” kicked off its fourth and final season on Sunday night. Among its many fans, members of the media are some of its most significant devotees, despite consistently being satirized. The premiere included [spoiler warning] a sendup of the kind of digital startup culture that animates a lot of new media companies. “The Hundred is Substack meets MasterClass meets ‘The Economist’ meets ‘The New Yorker,’” Kendall Roy says. Fortunately, POLITICO’s senior media writer Jack Shafer is here to provide analysis of the show’s fictional media startup. “Succession” writers are deliberately sending up the new media genre here, Shafer writes, all but asking their viewers, “Can’t you just smell the mold?” The web abounds with bite-sized parcels, news digests, New York Times breaking news alerts on phones, self-help media, TikTok and other mini-diversions. It’s hard to imagine the “Succession” Kids putting their own trust funds into The Hundred, let alone convincing the investors they’ve summoned to pony up for the “disrupter news brand.” There’s no evidence they understand the new media property they’re conjuring into existence. Do they read any of the publications their pitch name-checks? Do they read anything? Can they read? They talk about finding subscribers, which appears to be essential for modern media plays, but discuss no reason why anybody would pay for their projection. The Hundred proposal also echoes the tale of The Daily, a 2011 iPad-centric start-up that Murdoch personally shepherded into existence before it collapsed almost two years later due to lack of reader interest. “New times demand new journalism,” Murdoch said at the launch of his “visionary” property, which he said was for modern news consumers who expect “content tailored to their specific interests to be available anytime, anywhere.” Its initial investment was about $30 million, reported the New York Times, and the weekly cost of production was $500,000. Read all of Shafer’s column, including a discussion of why the Roy kids are wrong to pursue an acquisition of the more old-school Pierce Global Media as well, here . Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here . | |
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