Wednesday, October 4, 2023

POLITICO Massachusetts Playbook: Granite State of primary play

 


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BY LISA KASHINSKY

Presented by

Delta Dental of Massachusetts

With help from Kelly Garrity

POLL POSITION — Nikki Haley’s New Hampshire momentum is for real. A new poll of likely Granite State GOP primary voters shows it’s the former South Carolina governor — not Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — who’s making the strongest play for second place in the first primary state.

But Donald Trump remains immovable atop the field. The former president leads his Republican rivals with 49 percent support in a new Suffolk University/Boston Globe/USA TODAY survey out this morning — putting him 30 percentage points above his closest rival.

That would be Haley, the former U.N. ambassador who notched 19 percent support in this survey. DeSantis is at 10 percent. No one else cracked double digits in the poll of 500 likely GOP primary voters that was conducted after the second debate and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.4 percentage points.

The poll captures three trends that have come to define the 2024 Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire and across the early nominating states: Trump remains dominant, DeSantis is on the decline and Haley’s rise looks increasingly real.

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley waves with supporters standing behind her.

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley waves while arriving for a campaign event, on July 6, 2023, in North Conway, N.H. | Charles Krupa/AP Photo

And it’s against that backdrop that the GOP candidates will flood New Hampshire next week, starting with the former president on Monday and most of the rest of the field at a weekend cattle call hosted by the state GOP.

A real race for second place could energize Republicans on both sides of the state line at a time when it increasingly looks like the nation is headed for a rematch between Trump and President Joe Biden that few voters want . The MassGOP is quite literally banking on it, as it looks to GOP hopefuls not named Trump to help replenish its depleted coffers as it tries to pay off its debt.

But DeSantis’ continued struggles in New Hampshire — now reflected across several recent surveys that have showed support for the Florida governor waning and Haley climbing — also illustrate how Trump alternatives who’ve been tailoring their pitches to his voters and to conservative-skewing Republican activists now have to figure out how to broaden their appeal beyond the party’s base.

That will be particularly key in New Hampshire and Massachusetts (yes, as a Super Tuesday state, we matter, too). Independents who make up the largest share of both states’ voters are poised to play a significant role in their GOP primaries without a big draw on the Democratic side.

The only major candidate who's making clear overtures across the aisle: former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, whose political operation is now going so far as to try to recruit Democrats to switch their party registration and play on the GOP side, my colleague Alex Isenstadt scooped. There’s definite, though likely limited, interest in Christie from the left , Mia McCarthy and I reported over the summer. Now New Hampshire just needs to schedule its primary.

GOOD WEDNESDAY MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS . Maura Healey is getting ready to deliver on one of the centerpieces of her gubernatorial campaign.

The governor plans to sign the sweeping tax breaks lawmakers passed last week into law without any changes during a 1 p.m. ceremony at the State House alongside Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll and Democratic legislative leaders.

TODAY — Healey also makes a “major announcement” at the Offshore WINDPOWER Conference at 8:30 a.m. at the Hynes Convention Center and visits the American Red Cross blood drive at the State House at 2:30 p.m. Driscoll speaks at MassDOT’s Moving Together Conference at 8:45 a.m. at the Sheraton Boston. Boston Mayor Michelle Wu is on “Java with Jimmy” at 9 a.m. and attends an Italian flag raising at 10:30 a.m. outside City Hall.

Tips? Scoops? Polls? Email me: lkashinsky@politico.com .

 

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DATELINE D.C.

MCCARTHY MAKES HISTORY — Republican Kevin McCarthy is out as House speaker in a historic vote that’s rocked Capitol Hill. And he’s not going to try to regain his gavel , POLITICO’s ace Congress team reports.

The Democrats who helped seal his downfall aren’t mincing words as chaos yet again consumes their chamber.

As Rep. Seth Moulton put it on X , “Democrats bailed [McCarthy] out” on a deal to extend government funding. “[W]e weren’t going to bail him out again.”

Democrats said they just couldn’t trust the California Republican. “Through his duplicitous misuse of power, profound disregard for the needs of the American people, and disloyalty to anyone but himself, Kevin McCarthy has proven unworthy of presiding over the House,” Katherine Clark , the No. 2 House Democrat, who whipped votes against McCarthy , said in a statement after the vote. “Hakeem Jeffries is the only person in command of this Chamber, and House Democrats will be proud to cast yet another vote to put him in the Speaker’s chair.”

DATELINE BEACON HILL

— “Goodbye, Columbus. Bill proposes Indigenous Peoples Day across Mass.,” by John L. Micek, MassLive: “Next Monday, Oct. 9, around two-dozen communities across the commonwealth will pause to celebrate Indigenous Peoples Day — and not Columbus Day. But if a Central Massachusetts lawmaker has anything to say about it, by the time Oct. 9, 2024 rolls around, the entire Bay State will officially celebrate Indigenous Peoples Day.”

— “Calls for changes to Bridgewater State Hospital come with dark details,” by Matthew Medsger, Boston Herald: “Bridgewater State Hospital is more like a prison than a mental health hospital, lawmakers are being told. … Legislation offered by state Rep. Ruth Balser, H2985 or An Act transferring Bridgewater State Hospital from the Department of Correction to the Department of Mental Health, would do exactly as its name suggests.”

 

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MIGRANTS IN MASSACHUSETTS

— “More than 1,200 families entered Massachusetts emergency shelter since August,” by Chris Van Buskirk, Boston Herald: “More than 1,200 families have entered Massachusetts’ emergency shelter system nearly two months after Gov. Maura Healey declared a state of emergency, according to data provided by the administration.”

FROM THE HUB

— “Boston Chamber urges City Council to fund police intelligence to ‘quell recent violence’,” by Gayla Cawley, Boston Herald: “The business community is urging the City Council to approve millions of dollars in grant funding for the Boston Regional Intelligence Center, saying that the money is needed to 'quell recent violence' that has put public safety at a 'crisis point.’... The City Council is expected to vote on funding the intelligence arm of the city’s police department on Wednesday, three weeks after rejecting three $850,000 grants set aside for the BRIC. A fourth $850,000 grant was later filed by the mayor.”

 

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THE RACE FOR CITY HALL

ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Revere Acting Mayor Patrick Keefe is picking up support from one of his former mayoral rivals, City Councilor Gerry Visconti , in his bid for a full term atop the city. Keefe , who’s been serving as mayor since Brian Arrigo left in the spring to run DCR, faces former mayor and current Councilor Dan Rizzo in November.

AND THEN THERE WERE TWO — New Bedford voters set up a rematch of the city's 2019 mayoral election when they sent Mayor Jon Mitchell and Air Force veteran Richard Tyson Moultrie through to the November ballot yesterday. See the unofficial preliminary election results.

PLANES, TRAINS AND AUTOMOBILES

— “Weeks later, T chief still reviewing how Green Line extension got so bad, so quickly,” by Taylor Dolven and Daniel Kool, Boston Globe: “The T’s top official said Tuesday he’s still in the middle of reviewing why so much of the MBTA’s new subway expansion became so defective it’s been slowed to walking pace for safety. Three weeks after MBTA data show the agency began to impose extreme slow zones that stretched to cover more than a mile’s worth of Green Line extension track, T general manager Phillip Eng declined to share any new information about how the failure happened.”

— “Lynn ferry service extended through October,” by James Bartlett, Item Live.

 

Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here .

 
 
THE LOCAL ANGLE

— “Leaving money on the table? Worcester doesn't have 'capacity' to plan events at Polar Park,” by Craig S. Semon, Telegram & Gazette: “Three city councilors are disappointed the city is ‘leaving money on the table’ by not cashing in on the allotted ‘city revenue days’ at Polar Park, part of the lease agreement with the Worcester Red Sox.”

— “Deal will keep 95-year-old artist Salvatore Del Deo in Provincetown dune shack, family says,” by WCVB.

MEANWHILE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE

— “New Hampshire trolls Massachusetts in lottery ad: ‘The no-good Massachusetts Tax Shark … stealing all our lottery winnings’,” by Rick Sobey, Boston Herald: “As the Powerball jackpot continues to spike well above $1 billion, Bay Staters who live near the New Hampshire border may want to consider heading over the state line for a lottery ticket. That’s the message from the New Hampshire Lottery, which in a new ad trolls Massachusetts — warning of the prowling Bay State ‘Tax Shark’ that devours lotto winnings.”

 

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Your dentist can help provide you with a wide array of plastic appliances, similar to mouthguards or orthodontic retainers, which can be worn while sleeping and assist with snoring. Some appliances reposition the lower jaw forward which, as a result, helps maintain an open, unobstructed airway in the throat. Speak with your dentist for more information on how to alleviate snoring or visit ExpressYourHealthMA.org to learn more.

 
HEARD ‘ROUND THE BUBBLAH

TRANSITIONS — Crystal Rountree will join Jumpstart for Young Children as CEO in January. Rountree is currently EVP and chief revenue and development officer at Teach for America.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY — to Special Envoy for Northern Ireland and former Rep. Joe Kennedy III ; Boston Mayor Michelle Wu communications chief Jessicah Pierre, Max German, Miles Halpine, Eliza Adelson, Alexis Cantor, Will von Meister, Steve Picheny, Jon Tapper, Justin Dynia and DFER’s Mary Tamer . Happy belated to Massachusetts Fiscal Alliance’s Paul Craney , who celebrated Tuesday.

Want to make an impact? POLITICO Massachusetts has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Bay State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness among this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com .

 

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POLITICO Nightly: Sam Bankman-Fried’s long shadow’s long shadow


POLITICO Nightly logo

BY DECLAN HARTY

Presented by

PhRMA

MCCARTHY OUT — For the first time in history, the House has deposed its speaker . Democrats joined with Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and his small group of conservative allies to vote to strip Kevin McCarthy of his gavel today. It’s unclear who would succeed McCarthy long term, though his allies expect he will try to run for speaker again and members pledged to continue supporting him. Gaetz joined with seven other Republicans to vote against McCarthy: Reps. Eli Crane (Ariz.), Ken Buck (Colo.), Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Matt Rosendale (Mont.), Bob Good (Va.), Nancy Mace (S.C.) and Tim Burchett (Tenn.). The House clerk announced Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) would act as a temporary speaker immediately after the vote concluded.

Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried at a bail hearing at Manhattan Federal Court on August 11, 2023 in New York City.

Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried at a bail hearing at Manhattan Federal Court on August 11, 2023 in New York City. | Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

TOXIC CLEANUP — Sam Bankman-Fried once dominated Washington. The scruffy founder behind fallen cryptocurrency exchange FTX pressed lawmakers for friendly regulations, commanded meetings with high-ranking regulators and gave millions to Democrats across the country — all while slyly running one of the biggest financial frauds in American history, as prosecutors have alleged.

Now, as the one-time crypto kingmaker’s criminal trial kicks off today in lower Manhattan, the crypto lobby is taking up a different playbook in the nation’s capital. The goal: Divorce the market from Bankman-Fried.

“Sam’s spectacular and ongoing implosion has created space for groups that have a broader perspective,” said Sheila Warren, who leads the Crypto Council for Innovation, an industry trade group that counts Andreessen Horowitz, Coinbase and OpenSea as members. “Sam was really looking out for Sam — not even necessarily FTX.”

Bankman-Fried, who is facing a slate of criminal fraud and conspiracy charges, quickly became a force in the endless policy debates around how the U.S. should regulate crypto, as FTX emerged in recent years as a powerhouse in the market. But when FTX crumbled as a house of cards late last year, so too did just about everything else with Bankman-Fried’s fingerprints on it.

Crypto has been scrambling to escape Bankman-Fried’s shadow ever since. Executives and lobbyists have primarily done so by pointing out that the 31-year-old’s alleged misdeeds were fraud — plain and simple. But the SBF-sized hole that has emerged within Washington’s crypto operation is a vacancy that few want to fill themselves — or even be seen as filling. Bankman-Fried’s name is still toxic to many across Washington. Becoming his successor as the face of crypto is a prospect that few idealize, especially as they continue to advocate for new rules around the $1 trillion market in the face of a crackdown from Wall Street regulators like the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Instead, the crypto lobby is pushing to make digital assets regulation a grassroots issue that hits entrepreneurs, developers and companies across the country. Crypto exchange giant Coinbase, for instance, recently launched a nonprofit advocacy organization called the Stand with Crypto Alliance that is pushing to advance crypto legislation on Capitol Hill. A lynchpin of the group’s pitch? The size of the U.S. crypto market: the company touts around 52 million people.

“The idea that one man and one company dictated an entire industry was frustrating for a lot of people,” Kara Calvert, head of U.S. policy at Coinbase, told Nightly. “At the end of the day, the industry is so broad based. Nobody wants to let the whole future of technological development in the United States be dictated by a criminal.”

Lawmakers have shown signs of warming to the need for crypto legislation, with the House expected to vote on a pair of historic crypto bills this fall. The bills, passed out of committee with bipartisan support, would set up how Wall Street regulators should police the market and the federal oversight of certain crypto tokens.

And yet, crypto still has a ways to go in Washington. Regulators have not eased up on their policing of the market. Senate Democrats appear unlikely to sign onto the bills. And investor advocates and crypto skeptics have questioned basic facts about the market, such as the actual size of it in the U.S..

Ultimately, whether the grassroots movement becomes big enough to lead the industry’s efforts in Washington remains to be seen. For now, though, lobbyists simply hope the industry can soon start to eclipse lingering concerns about Bankman-Fried.

“Over time, the attitude will start to shift, but we’ve still got some work to do,” Blockchain Association CEO Kristin Smith said. “The pieces are coming together, it’s just going to take time to see the results of the investment that the crypto industry is putting into Washington.”

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at dharty@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @declanharty .

 

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WHAT'D I MISS?

— Judge in fraud trial imposes gag order after Trump attacks judge’s aide: The judge overseeing Donald Trump’s civil fraud trial issued a gag order today barring Trump from making comments about court staff after the former president posted a social media attack on the judge’s principal law clerk that included her photo. “This morning one of the defendants posted to his social media account a disparaging, untrue and personally identifying post about a member of my staff,” said Justice Arthur Engoron, addressing Trump as he sat in the courtroom, about 15 feet from the clerk, Allison Greenfield. “Personal attacks on members of my court staff are unacceptable, inappropriate and I will not tolerate them in any circumstances,” Engoron continued.

— Justices voice doubts about challenge to consumer protection agency funding: The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau appears likely to escape a potentially devastating blow from the Supreme Court after several conservative justices expressed doubts about arguments that the agency’s funding stream is unconstitutional. During oral arguments today, all the court’s liberal justices and at least three members of the conservative majority sounded skeptical about claims by financial services companies that Congress’s decision to insulate the CFPB from the annual budget process ran afoul of the Constitution’s clause about appropriations of federal money.

— Biden calls allies amid concerns over support for Ukraine: President Joe Biden convened a call with world leaders today, the White House said, in an effort to reassure allies about U.S. support for Ukraine after Congress passed a short-term government funding bill that did not include aid for the country during its war with Russia. The call comes amid concern from the Pentagon about dwindling resources available to send to Ukraine as the country looks to drive Russian forces out of its territory. The Defense Department still has $5.4 billion worth of weapons available to send to Ukraine, but is fast running out of money to replenish its own stockpiles.

 

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NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024

RULEMONGERS — The Republican National Committee told former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy Monday night that if they went through with a separate joint appearance on Fox News they would be forbidden from participating in subsequent committee-sanctioned debates, reports POLITICO’s Meridith McGraw.

The warning, relayed to POLITICO by a person familiar with the conversations, had an effect. The candidates and network have decided to change up the format. Instead of appearing side-by-side, they will now sit for two separate, back-to-back segments . The RNC approved of the new format, according to another person familiar with the matter and granted anonymity to discuss it freely.

The RNC has explicitly forbidden candidates from participating in non-sanctioned debates, though it is not always entirely clear where the line is drawn. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is slated to debate California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Fox News, but it is believed that such a head-to-head doesn’t violate the committee’s rules as it is not explicitly a GOP primary forum.

KINGMAKER — It’s a Tuesday night, and Chad Connelly is addressing a small congregation inside the Truth Christian Ministries International Church. The church is usually shuttered on Tuesdays, but the pastor has called a special meeting. This is unlike their Sunday worship services or their Wednesday Bible study. Tonight, their guest is sharing his story — how he went from an upbringing in small-town South Carolina, to a career in engineering, to family tragedy, to national politics. Connelly, the church’s guest, has emerged as perhaps the most active evangelical political organizer in the 2024 presidential race , reports Samuel Benson of the Deseret News.

Connelly isn’t your typical evangelical kingmaker. He’s not a pastor, nor is he linked to one of the longstanding powerbrokers, like the Christian Coalition or the Faith & Freedom Coalition. He’s not a traditional politician, either — aside from a stint as the Republican Party chair in South Carolina, he’s never held elected office. But under the banner of his organization Faith Wins, Connelly has amassed an army of some 16,000 evangelical pastors, to whom he’s issued two specific requests: register your congregants to vote, and teach them to vote “Biblical values.”

 

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AROUND THE WORLD

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (center), European Council President Charles Michel (left) and European Commission President European Commission Ursula von der Leyen (right) give a joint press conference during an EU-Ukraine summit in Kyiv on February 3, 2023.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (center), European Council President Charles Michel (left) and European Commission President European Commission Ursula von der Leyen (right) give a joint press conference during an EU-Ukraine summit in Kyiv on February 3, 2023. | Sergei Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images

ACCESSION PLAN — The European Union is gearing up to open negotiations with Ukraine on its future accession to the bloc with a formal announcement expected as soon as December, report Nicholas Vinocur , Jacopo Barigazzi and Clea Caulcutt .

According to three diplomats with knowledge of the plans, leaders are preparing to give Kyiv the green light to begin formal talks on joining the 27-country bloc before the end of the year.

Ukraine is at the heart of a major new push to expand the EU to as many as 35 countries. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in her annual address to Parliament last month that Ukraine’s future was “in the Union.”

EU countries granted Kyiv status as a candidate for EU membership in June, and the Commission is due to issue a “progress report” on how well Ukraine and other aspiring members are meeting the bloc’s conditions for joining in November, according to an EU official who spoke to journalists today.

Once the progress report has been adopted, the Commission will make a statement that will make it “very hard for member states not to say let’s open negotiations” for Ukraine, said one EU diplomat who, like others, was granted anonymity to discuss confidential matters. “The political push around that will just be too big for individual member states to resist. The working assumption is indeed that by December, the European Council will decide to open negotiations.”

Any decision to open formal negotiations for Ukraine to join the EU is politically and legally fraught. In order to start talks, Ukraine is legally required to meet seven conditions laid out by the Commission, including judicial reforms and curbing corruption. As of August, only two of the seven conditions had been met, the Ukrainian government said at the time.

BREAKING BARRIERS — Canada’s House of Commons has elected Liberal MP Greg Fergus as speaker — the first time a Black Canadian will hold the role , writes Nick Taylor-Vaisey .

Fergus, who represents a Quebec district across the river from Ottawa, bested six other candidates: Chris d’Entremont, Carol Hughes, Alexandra Mendès, Peter Schiefke, Sean Casey and Elizabeth May.

Fergus takes on the task of presiding over a fractious House. “What motivates me, and what I vow to work night and day to promote and advance, can be summed up in one word, respect,” Fergus said during a short speech before polling stations opened in the chamber.

He promised to be “firm, thoughtful, collaborative, consistent and certainly fair.”

Some Conservatives were vocally opposed to Fergus’s candidacy. Calgary MP Michelle Rempel Garner claimed a past ethics violation made him unfit for the role.

MPs voted in person on a secret ranked ballot. The detailed vote breakdowns are never released publicly.

 

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NIGHTLY NUMBER

41

The number of official Canadian diplomats, out of 62 total, that India has told Canada to remove from the country, ramping up a confrontation between the two countries concerning allegations from Canada that India could have been involved in the killing of a Sikh separatist in Vancouver.

RADAR SWEEP

CLEAR THE QUEUE — Netflix shipped its last DVDs last week, finally ending the era of DVDs sent through the mail. It was the death knell in a long move away from physical media shipping to our door or being rented from a video store. Now, we all stream. But what’s the current state of streaming media? It’s necessarily a different business model, prioritizing above all else drawing new subscribers to a service. And with the proliferation of streaming services, sometimes it makes sense for these services to allow shows or movies to move around, going on and off platforms. That changes what TV and movie executives want to make, and so on down the line. The model means that unlike Netflix’s once vast library of DVDs, consumers are now at the whim of the services that they do subscribe to in order to decide what to watch. Streaming has left us with entertainment at our fingertips, but has also in some ways narrowed and changed our choices. Angela Watercutter reports for WIRED, along with some of her own memories of working in a video store.

PARTING IMAGE

On this date in 1967: Thurgood Marshall, the first Black Associate Justice appointed to the U.S. Supreme Court, is shown on his first day in court.

On this date in 1967: Thurgood Marshall, the first Black Associate Justice appointed to the U.S. Supreme Court, is shown on his first day in court. | AP Photo

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Top News | 'He’s Not Going to Run Unopposed': Sanders Rejects Schumer for Majority Leader

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