 | By Charlie Mahtesian and Calder McHugh | | 
A man stops to watch a screen displaying the U.S. presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump at The Admiral in Washington, DC, on Sept. 10. | Allison Bailey/AFP via Getty Images | NAILBITER — It’s hard to overstate just how close the presidential election is at the moment. The margins are measured in tenths of percentage points — Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are separated by less than a single point in six of the seven swing states, according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average today. Arizona, where Trump has a 1.4 point edge, is the outlier. A similar phenomenon is present in the House and Senate. The difference in the generic ballot — the polling question that asks which political party voters would support in a congressional election with no mention of specific candidate names — is a measly 1.2 points. As of Tuesday, each party had a 50 percent chance of winning the House: a toss-up. Republicans seem poised to win a Senate majority, but much remains up in the air — the Cook Political Report rates three races as toss ups. The larger point is that every vote matters this year — even if you live in a state that’s being ignored by the presidential candidates and where the airwaves are free of non-stop campaign ads. And if you’re still not convinced, a report from the Center on American Progress should make clear that even a few votes can make an enormous difference. Between 1976 and 2021, over 85 Senate elections and 410 House elections were decided by less than three percent of all votes. Over and over again, a tiny sliver of the American public breaking in one direction or another decides who runs the country. On the presidential level, other than Barack Obama’s convincing victories in 2008 and 2012, every other election in the 21st century has been decided on a razor’s edge. The most famous, of course, is in 2000, when George W. Bush won the decisive Florida by just 537 votes. In his 2004 reelection, Bush carried New Mexico by just 5,988 votes. He won Iowa by just over 10,000. And in 2016, the report notes, Donald Trump essentially became president because of 77,744 votes cast across three states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, all of which he won by mere tenths of a percentage point. Joe Biden was also the beneficiary of some close calls in 2020: He flipped Arizona by 10,457 votes, Georgia by 11,779 and Wisconsin by 20,682. All of the polling this year points towards a race that’s just as close — if not closer — than the last two contests. And the House in particular could also be decided on a razor thin margin thanks to a relatively small number of closely contested districts. Over 162 million ballots could be cast this year, according to one projection. As political campaigns get better and better at modeling the electorate and identifying their voters, they can target swing states and swing districts with precision. But even if you are not the target of one of those campaigns, your vote could remain essential in numerous races. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s authors at cmahtesian@politico.com and cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PoliticoCharlie and @calder_mchugh.
| | MUST READ REPORT: — Scientists say climate change boosted Milton rainfall and winds: The devastating winds and torrential rains that Hurricane Milton delivered to Florida were made far worse by human-induced climate change , a team of international researchers reported today. Record-high global temperatures, boosted by the burning of fossil fuels, helped power the storm as it traveled across the balmy waters of the Gulf of Mexico, according to the World Weather Attribution group’s analysis released this morning. Those conditions boosted Milton’s rainfall between 20 to 30 percent and wind speed by 10 percent compared with a scenario without human-caused climate change. excerpts: The type of torrential rainfall from storms like Milton was twice as likely because of the 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming the world has experienced since the middle of the 19th century, WWA said. Milton delivered nearly 19 inches of rain in St. Petersburg, causing what meteorologists described as a 1-in-500-year flood in the city that sits on a peninsula at the mouth of Tampa Bay. The findings come just days after the same research group found climate change also intensified Hurricane Helene, which like Milton intensified rapidly as it barreled toward the U.S. coast. Helene was the deadliest storm since 2017, killing more than 230 people across six states. FLORIDA is hostage to a CLIMATE DENIER: Despite the growing body of science showing the effects climate change is having on making hurricanes more powerful, skepticism remains among many politicians, such as Republican Florida Gov. Ron Desantis, who has downplayed climate change and dismissed any link to the storm this week, saying, “It is hurricane season.” The JEWISH SPACE LASER QUEEN LUNACY: Those remarks came after Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, another Republican, drew ridicule from members of both parties for her post on X saying, “Yes they can control the weather.” She added, “It’s ridiculous for anyone to lie and say it can’t be done.” — Biden to visit Florida as state digs out from Milton: President Joe Biden will visit Florida this weekend, the White House announced today, as the state plows ahead with recovery from two devastating hurricanes over a two-week stretch. Biden is slated to travel on Sunday to areas rocked by Hurricane Milton, which unleashed fierce winds and tornadoes that wreaked havoc on both of Florida’s coasts. The White House did not provide any further details about where in the state he will visit. — Iran has a hit list of former Trump aides. The U.S. is scrambling to protect them: U.S. officials are coming to a troubling realization about Iran’s repeated threats to kill Donald Trump and some of his former top generals and national security strategists: Tehran isn’t bluffing — and it isn’t giving up anytime soon . U.S. intelligence community officials briefed the Trump campaign last month about assassination threats against the former president from Iran, with the Trump campaign saying they were warned the threat has “heightened in the past few months.” The briefing followed a pair of assassination efforts on Trump this summer. No evidence has been presented to link those to Tehran.
excerpts: Iran has been openly threatening Trump and those who oversaw his national security strategy since January 2020, when Trump ordered a drone strike killing Qassem Soleimani, then Iran’s most powerful military general. Tehran has put out videos depicting the future deaths of Trump and others who helped orchestrate the Soleimani attack, pushed for their arrest and extradition and issued menacing statements promising revenge. POLITICO spoke with 24 people with direct knowledge of the Soleimani strike or the ensuing assassination threat, including current and former U.S. lawmakers, Secret Service agents, congressional aides and senior U.S. officials. Some were granted anonymity due to ongoing threats against them or the sensitivity of their work. The gamble on SoleimaniThe Trump administration knew the killing of Soleimani risked bitter retaliation. | | REPUBLICAN DESPERATION! LOOK OVER HERE — Second gentleman Doug Emhoff dismissed scrutiny of his personal life during an interview today, calling tabloid investigations into his past relationships and comments about Vice President Kamala Harris a “distraction.” Emhoff did not directly address allegations published by the Daily Mail earlier this month that he struck his then-girlfriend in public in 2012 — though the Harris campaign has denied the account in a statement to Semafor. MUSK-YLVANIA — As Election Day inches closer, Elon Musk has further intertwined himself in the race for the White House on an unprecedented level, rooting his pro-Trump strategy in Pennsylvania, a crucial battleground that Musk — and pretty much everyone else — knows is key to a Trump win, writes the Philadelphia Inquirer. In a Pittsburgh “war room,” Musk has surrounded himself with lawyers, PR pros, canvassing experts, and other allies, attempting to apply business and entrepreneurial chops to his operations as Nov. 5 approaches. And Musk’s message is starting to reach beyond that Western Pennsylvania room. He’s proposed a bus tour across the Commonwealth, taking it upon himself to door knock, partly to see how his financial investments have paid off. DENY, DENY, DENY — Heading into the final three weeks of the 2024 election, Senator JD Vance of Ohio will still not say whether his running mate won or lost the last race for the White House. In an interview with The New York Times that will be published on Saturday, Mr. Vance repeatedly refused to acknowledge former President Donald J. Trump’s defeat and went to even greater lengths to avoid doing so than he did during the vice-presidential debate earlier this month. When asked about the previous election during an hourlong interview with Lulu Garcia-Navarro, a host of “The Interview,” a Times podcast published each Saturday, the Republican vice-presidential nominee responded that he was “focused on the future.” It was the same phrase he used to evade the same question during his debate with his Democratic rival, Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota. “There’s an obsession here with focusing on 2020,” Mr. Vance said in the interview. “I’m much more worried about what happened after 2020, which is a wide-open border, groceries that are unaffordable.” WILL TRUMP TELL HIS USUAL LIES? COUNTERPROGRAMMING — Former President Donald J. Trump turned down Fox News’s invitation to debate Vice President Kamala Harris on the air this month. But the Republican nominee will appear on the network next week for an unusual televised town hall , fielding questions from an all-female audience, writes the New York Times. The event, announced by Fox News today, will focus on “issues impacting women ahead of the election,” the network said, including abortion, day care, child care, health care and the economy.
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German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrive for the 2024 Ukraine Recovery Conference on June 11 in Berlin. | Sean Gallup/Getty Images | FRESH GERMAN AID — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced fresh military aid for Ukraine along with support for the country’s heavily-damaged energy infrastructure during a visit by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Berlin today. “Germany is the strongest military supporter of Ukraine in Europe,” said Scholz, receiving Zelenskyy at the tail end of the Ukrainian leader’s tour of European capitals this week. “It will stay that way,” added Scholz. “I can assure you of that.” The military aid totaling €1.4 billion was cobbled together from various sources, including unused federal cash and international fundraising initiatives. Scholz said today that Belgium, Denmark and Norway had also helped provide the new aid. EUROPE’S REFUGEE REPOSITORY — In the wake of Europe’s 2015 refugee crisis, the EU has poured more than €11 billion into Turkey to help the country support, shelter and manage almost 4 million people who had fled northward to escape Syria’s devastating civil war. These funds represent the largest humanitarian effort in EU history, but its purpose is far from altruistic — aiming to minimize asylum-seeker arrivals in the bloc by ensuring they stay in Turkey. The amount includes nearly €1 billion for border security and asylum processing to help Ankara contain refugees. Yet Ankara has grown tired of acting as Europe’s refugee repository. In recent years, the Turkish government started using much of this EU-funded infrastructure to reduce the number of asylum-seekers it hosts by rounding up and forcibly deporting Syrians, Afghans, and others facing danger in their home countries, according to an investigation by POLITICO and eight other news outlets, in partnership with Lighthouse Reports.
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| | | SAIL AWAY WITH ME — A billionaire businessman is trying to deliver the first ever victory to the United Kingdom in the world’s most prestigious sailing tournament. The America’s Cup, a best-of-13 race, began in Great Britain 173 years ago. But an English team has never won it. Now, they have a chance to do so, with the backing of Sir Jim Ratcliffe, the CEO of INEOS chemicals group. His team, Ineos Brittania, will take on a defending champion team from New Zealand in the final, the first time they’ve reached that stage of the race since 1964. For the BBC, Alistair Watkins explains the roots of the Cup, Ratcliffe’s involvement and how the entire enterprise works.
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On this date in 1991: University of Oklahoma law professor Anita Hill testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee on the nomination of Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court on Capitol Hill. Hill testified that she was "embarrassed and humiliated" by unwanted, sexually explicit comments made by Thomas when she worked for him a decade ago. | John Duricka/AP | Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. | |
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