Lindsey Graham to face the music in election theft probe

 

It's Our Democracy!

Today’s Action: Join Indivisible for their Text Training and Action Hour!

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Today's Top Stories:

Appeals court orders Sen. Lindsey Graham to testify in Georgia election probe
The spineless MAGA senator, who has fought tooth-and-nail to avoid testifying about his role in Trump's scheme to overturn the 2020 election in Georgia, must finally face the music after a three-judge panel of the 11th Circuit US Court of Appeals unanimously disagreed with Graham's ridiculous argument that his actions were protected under the US Constitution's speech and debate clause.

Take Action: Demand the FBI reopen the investigation into Brett Kavanaugh!

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VIDEO OF THE DAY: Marco Rubio absolutely torched by Val Demings on debate stage
During their first debate for US Senate in Florida, Democratic challenger Val Demings dressed down her milquetoast Republican opponent in stunning fashion for his steadfast refusal to do literally anything about the epidemic of gun violence in Florida and across America.

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Trump faces consequences amid January 6 Committee's bombshell move
No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen: Finally.

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Justice Barrett rejects effort to block Biden’s student debt relief program from taking effect
In a surprising demonstration of prudent judgement from the Trump-appointed religious fanatic, Amy Coney Barrett refused to aid the reactionary forces working against President Biden's transformational debt relief plan.

Take Action: Demand Congress pass the Respect for Marriage Act!

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Leaked footage shows Lauren Boebert telling Republicans we are at the end of the world
The Republican Party's refusal to take any steps that might improve the lives of average Americans makes a lot more sense when you realize they don't think that any of us will be alive much longer.

Take Action: Call on President Biden to commit to phasing out fossil fuels!

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Comedian trolls Herschel Walker by giving him a huge roll of condoms on stage
The humiliating prank was a clear riff on Walker’s recent scandals involving reports the bumbling Senate candidate and supposed "family man" paid for an ex-girlfriend’s abortion and has fathered multiple children with multiple women who were not previously made public.

Take Action: Pass the congressional stock trading ban!

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Afghan couple accuses US Marine of abducting their baby
US Marine Corps attorney Joshua Mast is accused of snatching up an Afghan war orphan (whose parents had been killed in an American raid) and praising it as an act of Christian faith to save her. Letters, emails, and documents submitted in federal filings show that Mast used his status in the US Armed Forces, appealed to high-ranking Trump administration officials, and turned to small-town courts as he prepared to kidnap the unsuspecting child from her rightful guardians.

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McConnell's hand-picked Republican is still running elections in one of the largest BLUE cities in the South
OD Action partner: Louisville, Kentucky, has just one citywide Republican elected official — a handpicked McConnell disciple who oversees — of all things — elections. This year she has a strong challenge from Democrat Tina Ward-Pugh in a race that could be a game changer for voting rights for years to come. Can you chip in to make sure Democrats in Kentucky can exercise their right to vote?

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Ohio Senate Candidate Michele Reynolds (R)

Republican candidate says that Jewish people will “Jew you down”
The GOP's appalling embrace of bigotry writ large is as sure a sign as any that we are barreling towards an all-out battle between fascism and freedom.

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Trump claims pardons, immigration records seized at Mar-a-Lago are his personal property
There's garden variety delusion and then there's Trumpism, folks.

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Biden on Dr. Oz: "Delaware was smart enough to send him to New Jersey"
The president trolled the MAGA candidate's carpetbagging efforts as Oz — a noted dog killer from New Jersey — hurtles towards an electoral showdown with Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman that could decide which party controls the US Senate.

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Trump-appointed judge blocks New York from banning guns in church
The preposterous ruling marks the latest victory for gun nuts in an ongoing tug-of-war with the state of New York over its strict new life-saving statute, which makes obtaining a firearm license more difficult and prohibits guns in "sensitive" public and private places.

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Ain't that America?

Steve Bannon to be sentenced today for flouting House 1/6 committee

Oregon sheriff arrests Forest Service employee for controlled burn

New York mayor declares war on rats

Elon Musk plans to cut 75% of Twitter staff if he takes over company

Kevin Spacey found not liable in sex abuse suit

Day care workers who used "Scream" mask to terrorize children charged with felony child abuse

Hyundai to "sever relations" with Alabama factory accused of child labor..."as soon as possible"

Around the world in the 80 seconds...

Iran sent advisors to Ukraine to help Russia use Iranian-made drones, just like America does for Saudi Arabia's murderous Yemen war

Pakistan election commission disqualifies former PM Imran Khan

At least 150 killed in two days of Sudan ethnic clashes in Blue Nile state

Man accidentally backs car into 15th-century Japanese toilet

Colombia beats its own coca growing record

Boris Johnson picking up steam in bid to return as UK prime minister

How an abandoned baby led to traumatic strip-searches in Qatar

Hope...

GoodGoodGood: 19 best gifts for animal lovers

Scientists improve cervical cancer prediction with new test

42% have fallen back in love with a partner after going on vacation together

Larry the Cat outlasts fourth UK prime minister

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Today’s Action: Join Indivisible for their Text Training and Action Hour!

There are so many critical progressive initiatives on the line this election — reproductive rights, LGBTQ+ rights, gun safety reform, climate change action, etc. — which means we all have to do our part to ensure Democrats show up and VOTE on November 8th.

There are lots of great opportunities on Mobilize to connect with voters in key races, with varying levels of engagement and necessary experience. If phone banking or canvassing door to door doesn’t feel like a good fit, text banking could be for you — and Indivisible is holding no-experience-necessary Text Training and Action Hours twice a week until Election Day!

Sign up to attend a one-hour text-banking training session with Indivisible at 12:30PM EDT this coming Monday! The voters you reach could mean the difference between a red or blue victory next month. If this session doesn’t work with your schedule, you can also reach out for a one-on-one informational meeting.

The margin of error for keeping the House and Senate in Democratic hands is far too thin for comfort. It’s never been more important to get out the vote and fight for our cherished rights. Sign up with Indivisible and do your part today!

PS — Please don't forget to sign the petition telling prosecutors to charge Lindsey Graham after he was caught plotting election fraud for Trump, and be sure to follow OD Action on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram.

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Demings: Marco Rubio Is Clearly Concerned About His Political Future

Rep. Val Demings, D-Fla., joins Morning Joe to discuss Tuesday's debate against challenger Sen. Marco Rubio and why she says Sen. Rubio is 'clearly' concerned about his political future.

 

POLITICO NIGHTLY: Inside the Senate’s two most pivotal races

 

View in browser   BY CALDER MCHUGH With help from Alice Miranda Ollstein Sen. Raphael Warnock speaks next to an empty podium set up for Republican challenger Herschel Walker, who was invited but did not attend, during a U.S. Senate debate. | AP Photo/Ben Gray SOUTH BY SOUTHWEST — We’re roughly three weeks away from Election Day, and control of the U.S. Senate is coming down to a few key races where the polling margins remain small. POLITICO’s Election Forecast has four Senate seats in the toss-up category: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada. At the moment, Sens. Raphael Warnock of Georgia and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada appear to be the most imperiled Democratic incumbents. If Democrats can hold those two seats, they are likely to retain control of the Senate. Warnock maintains a small advantage over Republican Herschel Walker while Cortez Masto trails ever so slightly against Republican Adam Laxalt, according to polling averages. To understand the pivotal nature of these two states this year and break down the two Senate races, Nightly spoke with POLITICO’s Senior Campaigns and Elections Editor Steven Shepard . Why are these two races so important to control of the Senate and what are some similarities and differences between them that you see? At its core, the battle to control the Senate is a numbers game. Republicans need to net one seat and get to 51 in order to flip the majority, and the two most vulnerable Democratic incumbents are clearly Sens. Raphael Warnock and Catherine Cortez Masto. If Republicans hold all of their vulnerable seats, they only need to flip one Democratic seat. But if they lose Pennsylvania, they need two seats — and Georgia and Nevada are their best bets. These are two of our toss-up races, but the most obvious difference is — for now — Cortez Masto trails Republican Adam Laxalt in the polling average, while Warnock leads embattled GOP challenger Herschel Walker. Exactly how much spending can we expect to see between these two races? Is there a significant spending gap between the parties and affiliated PACs? Are there different messages in, say, Laxalt vs. Walker ads, or Cortez Masto vs. Warnock ads? The numbers are staggering. We just got the candidates’ financial reports for the third quarter over the weekend. From July 1-Sept. 30 alone, the four candidates combined to spend more than $70 million — and that doesn’t count the outside groups, which are set to combine for roughly $100 million in Georgia and just a little less than that in Nevada, when all is said and done. While Warnock and Cortez Masto have more money than their opponents, GOP outside groups have spent big to close the gap. Republicans’ ads have an overwhelming focus: inflation, namely tying the spike in prices to legislation passed by the Democratic Congress and signed into law by President Joe Biden. The Mitch McConnell-linked Senate Leadership Fund is currently hitting Warnock for “enabling Joe Biden and crushing Georgians, voting for trillions in reckless spending, causing inflation and higher prices.” And in Nevada, their latest ad says Cortez Masto “rubber-stamped” Biden’s “reckless spending, triggering record inflation and sky-high prices.” The Democratic messages do differ between the states, but that’s mostly because of Walker’s unique vulnerabilities. Warnock’s most recent ad featured Republican voters talking about why they can’t support Walker, citing his “lies,” “bizarre statements” and “history of violence.” The latest ad from Democrats’ top super PAC in Nevada, meanwhile, tries to spin high gas prices around on Laxalt, calling him “Big Oil’s best buddy.” Some recent polling suggests that the inflation message may be breaking through , cutting into Democrats’ leads or widening deficits from over the summer. Is it correct to say that message has had more success in the Nevada Senate race than in Georgia, where Warnock’s small lead has remained steady? Or are there other factors at play? To the extent that the inflation argument is working better for Republicans in Nevada than Georgia — and, to be clear, the polling is clear that inflation is the dominant issue most everywhere — it might be because the spike in prices is greater in Nevada than in Georgia. I also want to mention the longer-term political trends in each state: Georgia went from Romney +8, to Trump +5, to Biden +0 over the past three presidential elections. Its demographics — a sizable Black population and lots of well-educated white voters — point to why it’s been trending leftward. Nevada, by contrast, went from Obama +7, to Clinton +2, to Biden +3. It’s not moving as quickly to the right as Georgia is moving left, but Nevada’s demographics (more working-class voters and a larger Latino population) mean Republicans have opportunities to grow even though GOP presidential candidates have lost four consecutive elections there. And in the last three weeks, what should we be looking for that might move the needle in either of these important races? Well, it won’t be debates. Last Friday’s meeting between Warnock and Walker was their only one on the books, and there’s no debate planned in Nevada whatsoever (the two candidates combined to commit to five debates, though there was no overlap). In Georgia, I’m most interested in seeing where views of Walker land after all of these negative ads and Walker’s well-documented checkered past. Can he get swing voters and moderate Republicans to pull the lever for him? In Nevada, the final three weeks will put Democrats’ once-vaunted turnout machine in the state to the test. Outside of Dems’ 2014 flop, the party has a history of getting its voters to the polls and pulling out close races. But this year, Republicans have momentum, and there are questions about whether Democrats have their act together . Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on Twitter at @calder_mchugh .   NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS  – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID .     DISPATCH FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL Thousands of canvassers are hitting the streets of Michigan in the final weeks of one of the most heated abortion rights battles in the country. Our health care reporter Alice Miranda Ollstein just returned from a week of trailing them as voters prepare to decide on Nov. 8 whether to insert language into the state constitution to explicitly protect the right to abortion.  Abortion-rights protesters attend a rally outside the state capitol in Lansing, Michigan, in June 2022. | AP Photo/Paul Sancya, File ABORTION RIGHTS BATTLEGROUND — Recent polls indicate overwhelming support for the referendum in the swing state, and the pro-abortion rights side had a significant head start in fundraising, amassing more than $8 million before the measure even officially qualified for the ballot. But anti-abortion groups are not taking the fight lying down. They’ve spent more than $4 million on TV ads alone in recent weeks, and are also pushing their message to churches, college campuses, local chambers of commerce and at voters’ doors. Last Wednesday in Wyoming, Mich., just south of Grand Rapids, one staffer and one volunteer with Students for Life, a national anti-abortion group opposing the amendment, handed out leaflets in the pouring rain. Their Michigan deployment is part of the group’s multimillion-dollar post-Roe goal of knocking on 250,000 doors in 33 states to elect anti-abortion canadidates and defeat ballot measures that would enshrine the right to the procedure. The reception that day was decidedly mixed. While some enthusiastically agreed with the group’s argument that the proposed amendment goes too far in lifting restrictions on abortion, others took one look at the canvassers’ shirts reading “the pro-life generation votes” and slammed the door — with one resident adding, “Get that shit out of here.” One man who said he had already cast his ballot for the amendment declined to give his name out of fear of retaliation, citing how heated the debate around the issue has been in his community. “The government has got no business telling a woman what she can or can’t do,” he said. “I personally think it’s wrong to take a life, but in certain circumstances, I think it’s fine and dandy. It should be up to the woman. They’re the ones who are going to have to deal with the big guy up there.”   LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today .     POLL WATCHER 18 percentage points Republicans’ current lead with independent women voters, a huge swing from Democrats’ 14-point edge with the group in September, according to a new poll of likely voters from The New York Times/Siena College . The survey also showed that the economy is a more salient issue with voters than abortion. WHAT'D I MISS? — Trump and Kanye speak amid rapper’s anti-Semitic rants, aquisition of Parler: Former President Donald Trump spoke with Kanye West over the phone following the rapper’s decision to buy his own social media platform , a personal familiar with the call told POLITICO. West placed the call, during which the two confirmed plans to have dinner though nothing is currently scheduled. Parler has agreed to fully sell the app to West, but the parties have yet to enter into a definitive purchase agreement. They expect to close on the deal in the fourth quarter of 2022. — DOJ recommends 6-month jail term for Bannon: The Justice Department is recommending a six-month jail sentence and $200,000 fine for Steve Bannon , the longtime adviser to Trump who defied a subpoena to the Jan. 6 select committee. Prosecutors said Bannon, from the moment he received the select committee subpoena on Sept. 2021, “has pursued a bad-faith strategy of defiance and contempt.” — Biden Covid officials scramble to plan for Omicron subvariant threat: Top Biden health officials are increasingly concerned about the rise of new Covid variants in the U.S. that appear to evade existing treatments used to protect immunocompromised people from severe illness, according to three senior administration officials. The variants — known as BQ1 and BQ1.1 — have spread swiftly throughout the U.S. over the past few weeks, and now account for more than 11 percent of all cases nationwide, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, roughly double the proportion they represented a week earlier. — Trump Org excessively charged Secret Service for hotel stays, House panel reveals: Trump’s company charged the Secret Service excessive nightly hotel rates on dozens of trips , according to new documents released today by the House Oversight Committee. The Secret Service was charged in excess of the government-allowed rate when Eric Trump, the former president’s son and executive vice president of the Trump Organization, stayed in Washington, D.C. at the Trump-owned hotel with his wife Lara Trump, the House panel said. Citing new documents from the Secret Service, the Oversight Committee disclosed five stays at about three times the allowed rate. — Biden to host Israeli president at White House next week: Biden will host Israeli President Isaac Herzog for an official visit next week , White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre said during a briefing today. The visit will be Herzog’s first official trip to Washington since he assumed office in 2021. Biden and Herzog last met in July in Jerusalem. AROUND THE WORLD INSIDE PUTIN’S MIND — It’s hard to imagine how Putin’s war on Ukraine will conclude. Does Putin even have an endgame? If he really wants to control Ukrainian territory, why does he seem so bent on destroying it? To get insights into these questions, Maura Reynolds reached out to Fiona Hill, one of America’s most clear-eyed observers of Russia and Putin, who served as an adviser to Trump and gained fame for her testimony in his first impeachment trial. In the early days of Russia’s war on Ukraine, Hill warned in an interview with POLITICO that what Putin was trying to do was not only seize Ukraine but destroy the current world order. And she recognized from the start that Putin would use the threat of nuclear conflict to try to get his way. Now, despite the setbacks Russia has suffered on the battlefield, Hill thinks Putin is undaunted. She sees him adapting to new conditions, not giving up. And she sees him trying to get the West to accede to his aims by using messengers like billionaire Elon Musk to propose arrangements that would end the conflict on his terms. “Putin plays the egos of big men, gives them a sense that they can play a role. But in reality, they’re just direct transmitters of messages from Vladimir Putin,” Hill says. Read the whole interview here . NIGHTLY NUMBER $22.5 million The amount of money that Democratic Rep. Val Demings raised in the last quarter in her bid to unseat Republican Sen. Marco Rubio in Florida. Rubio brought in $9.8 million. She is one of many challengers — from both parties — who has a cash advantage over an incumbent. RADAR SWEEP WHEN COUNTING IS SUBJECTIVE — What counts as a bestseller in the book world ? It’s a question that many people think has a defined answer — a number of books sold over a period of time, maybe. But “bestseller” lists actually vary from publication to publication and reflect editorial decisions that can often vault a book to success (it’s nice to be able to say “New York Times Bestseller” on a jacket cover) or banish it to oblivion. Jordan Pruett investigates what this means for Public Books. PARTING IMAGE The startup union that clinched a historic labor victory at Amazon earlier this year is slated to face the company yet again, aiming to rack up another win that could force the reluctant retail behemoth to the negotiating table, according to The Associated Press. This time, the Amazon Labor Union and the nation’s second-largest private employer are facing off in the town of Schodack, near Albany, N.Y. Workers at the warehouse there, which employs roughly 800 people according to Amazon, will finish voting in a union election today. The votes will be tallied Tuesday by the National Labor Relations Board. | Rachel Phua via AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh Naomi Andu @naomiandu   FOLLOW US

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Val Demings: Marco Rubio Should 'Pay A Price' For Abstaining From Vote On FEMA Disaster Aid

Florida Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate Rep. Val Demings slams Marco Rubio for abstaining from a vote on FEMA disaster aid as their home state continues to reel from the impact of Hurricane Ian. Rep. Val Demings joins Joy Reid sayin, “Over and over again, time and time again, when Florida has needed Marco Rubio the most, he has not shown up. We deserve better.”

POLITICO NIGHTLY: The powerful tide of Black candidates

View in browser   BY CHARLIE MAHTESIAN With help from Myah Ward Rep. Val Demings. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images PIPELINE TO POWER — If everything goes as expected, Rep. Val Demings will emerge tonight as the Democratic Senate nominee in Florida against GOP Sen. Marco Rubio. She’s not the only high-profile Black candidate on the Senate ballot today: T.W. Shannon, a former state House Speaker, will compete in Oklahoma’s GOP Senate runoff. Shannon, who finished a distant second in the June special election primary and trails GOP Rep. Markwayne Mullin in the polls, is the longer shot to win his party nomination. Together, they’re part of one of the biggest and least appreciated stories of the 2022 election — a surge of Black candidates that stands to reshape national politics for years to come. At the House level, 81 Black Republican candidates alone were running in primaries through May , an increase of close to 27 percent over 2020. Counting Demings, there will be at least 11 Black Senate nominees (eight of them Democrats) in November and five Black nominees for governor (all of them Democrats). Depending on how Louisiana votes, it’s possible that every Deep South Senate race could feature at least one Black nominee in November. In Georgia and South Carolina, both parties’ Senate nominees are African American. “It’s extremely significant to have eight Black [Democratic] candidates who made it through the primaries, which is already a huge deal, especially when we’ve only had a handful of Black senators in history,” says Stefanie Brown James, a co-founder and senior adviser with the Collective PAC, which supports progressive Black candidates. “The reverberations will last for decades. It’s definitely a huge and significant development.” Not all of these candidates are running competitive races. In solidly red environs like Alabama and Arkansas, where the Democratic nominees for Senate and governor are both Black, the candidates have little chance of winning. But elsewhere, others are within striking distance of victory in November, and their wins would immediately establish them as powerful party voices — and near-term presidential prospects or veep short-listers. Demings, a former House impeachment manager who hails from a swing region of Florida, the Interstate 4 corridor, already established herself as a possible running mate for Joe Biden in 2020, when she was vetted by his campaign. An upset victory over Rubio would firmly place her among the party’s leading voices and her blueprint in an increasingly red state would be closely followed by Democrats running in similarly difficult terrain. Another candidate who drew mention during Biden’s VP search, Stacey Abrams, is currently the Democratic nominee for governor in Georgia. If she knocks off Republican Gov. Brian Kemp in their November rematch, she’ll rank as the top elected Democrat in a swing state that will be pivotal to presidential election outcomes for the next generation. Senate control could also hinge on the fate of Black Democratic candidates. A reelection victory by Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock, combined with victories by Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin or Cheri Beasley in North Carolina, could keep the Democrats in power. Wins by Barnes and Beasley would also put Black Democrats in statewide office in key presidential swing states, amplifying their clout within the party, their fundraising and their stature as future prospects for national office. There’s another dimension to consider as well. There have only been 11 Black senators in the history of the United States — just two of them women. “We have the potential to double the amount of Black women elected to the Senate in history, in just one year,” says Brown James. The effect of the 2022 class of Black candidates could also ripple across the GOP. With a handful of Black Republicans in competitive House races, the number of Black Republicans in the House — currently two — could easily double. On the Senate side, where Tim Scott of South Carolina is the only Black Republican, Scott’s performance in November could bolster his 2024 presidential prospects . Another blowout victory by Scott — who ran ahead of Donald Trump’s performance in South Carolina in 2016 — will remind his party of his popularity in a key early primary state. Whatever happens in November, whether it’s a GOP wipeout or Democrats hold their own, the effects of the current pool of Black candidates are likely to be long-lasting. Nearly all of the marquee names on the ballot — Abrams, Barnes, Beasley, Scott and others — are in their 40s and 50s, leaving plenty of time to climb the ladder. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at cmahtesian@politico.com or on Twitter @PoliticoCharlie.   STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.     WHAT'D I MISS? — Biden closes in on student loan forgiveness plan and extension of repayment pause: The White House is likely to announce a student loan relief plan as early as Wednesday that would forgive up to $10,000 for some borrowers and further extend the current freeze on loan repayment, according to several people familiar with the plan. The details of the highly anticipated plan remain in flux, those people cautioned. The White House has been considering for months canceling $10,000 for borrowers who make $125,000 or less annually. — Biden administration likely to extend baby formula help for low-income moms: Biden administration officials are considering further steps to avoid a steep drop in infant formula access for low-income Americans as shortages linger in pockets across the country. Administration officials in the coming days are likely to again extend federal flexibilities for low-income moms and infants to access formula through the federal WIC nutrition program, with current waivers set to expire Sept. 30, according to two people, including a Biden administration official. — 2 men guilty of conspiring to kidnap Gov. Gretchen Whitmer: A jury today convicted two men of conspiring to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in 2020 , in a plot prosecutors described as a rallying cry for a U.S. civil war by anti-government extremists. The jury also found Adam Fox and Barry Croft Jr. guilty of conspiring to obtain a weapon of mass destruction, namely a bomb to blow up a bridge and stymie police if the kidnapping could be pulled off at Whitmer’s vacation home. — White House projects record drop in budget deficit: The Biden administration is projecting a record decline in budget deficits this year as federal tax receipts outpace expectations and spending on pandemic aid programs wanes. The budget gap for fiscal 2022 will total an estimated $1 trillion — $1.7 trillion less than the deficit last year and about $400 billion less than officials projected in March, according to the White House’s mid-year budget update released today. That would be the lowest annual deficit since 2019, before the pandemic plunged the U.S. into a deep recession and prompted a wave of government spending to cushion the economy. — IRS chief orders security review as GOP targets agency with inflammatory rhetoric: The IRS is reviewing the security at all of its facilities after some Republicans charged that the agency would use a major boost in funding from Congress to target regular Americans, in some cases invoking the threat of agents using firearms. IRS Commissioner Chuck Rettig noted in a message to employees that there have been new threats aimed at the agency and its staff , along with “an abundance of misinformation and false social media postings.” The comprehensive security review launched by Rettig will include an examination of how to bolster security and lighting at IRS offices, as well as increased collaboration with federal Homeland Security officials and local police.   SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY.     AROUND THE WORLD Ukranian soldiers set up a machine gun in February. | Anastasia Vlasova/Getty Images ‘WINTER IS COMING’ — As Russia’s war on Ukraine drags on, U.S. security assistance is shifting to a longer-term campaign that will likely keep more American military troops in Europe into the future, including imminent plans to announce an additional roughly $3 billion in aid to train and equip Ukrainian forces to fight for years to come, U.S. officials said. U.S. officials told The Associated Press that the package is expected to be announced Wednesday, the day the war hits the six-month mark and Ukraine celebrates its independence day. The money will fund contracts for drones, weapons and other equipment that may not see the battlefront for a year or two, they said. Unlike most previous packages, the new funding is largely aimed at helping Ukraine secure its medium- to long-term defense posture, according to officials familiar with the matter. Earlier shipments, most of them done under Presidential Drawdown Authority, have focused on Ukraine’s more immediate needs for weapons and ammunition and involved materiel that the Pentagon already has in stock that can be shipped in short order. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg noted the more extended focus today as he reaffirmed the alliance’s support for the conflict-torn country. “Winter is coming, and it will be hard, and what we see now is a grinding war of attrition. This is a battle of wills, and a battle of logistics,” Stoltenberg said, speaking at a virtual conference about Crimea, organized by Ukraine. “Therefore we must sustain our support for Ukraine for the long term, so that Ukraine prevails as a sovereign, independent nation.” NIGHTLY NUMBER $300 billion to $980 billion The amount of money that researchers at the Penn Wharton Budget Model estimate forgiving federal college student loan debt will cost over a 10-year budget window. PARTING WORDS Rep. Matt Gaetz. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images IS MATT GAETZ MAGA ENOUGH? — While it hasn’t received as much attention as other primaries across the map, one of the Trumpiest and most polarizing members of Congress is getting a taste of his own antics in a Florida contest today, writes Nightly’s Myah Ward. Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz has clung to Trump tighter than ever in one of the reddest districts in Florida — the 1st Congressional District, where Trump won nearly 66 percent of the vote in 2020. In the absence of public polling, it’s difficult to gauge just how much trouble the Florida Republican is in. While no one is predicting that Gaetz will lose his seat to “America First” candidate Mark Lombardo, a former Marine and former FedEx executive, it’s clear the congressman is looking over his shoulder. Gaetz, who’s known to float conspiracy theories about everything from the Jan. 6 assault to the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago, is watching his own tactics turned against him. Lombardo released a conspiracy-laden ad last week, questioning Trump’s support for Gaetz. “When Donald Trump really endorses someone, he goes big,” a narrator in the ad states. “You’ve seen none of that for lying Matt Gaetz. What does Trump know? Is Gaetz the informant?” His claim that Gaetz is the FBI informant related to the Mar-a-Lago search is not backed by evidence, but that didn’t stop the challenger from pushing it further. Lombardo has also hit the Republican lawmaker for the Justice Department’s investigation over whether he had a sexual relationship with a 17-year-old and paid for her to travel with him — sex trafficking allegations Gaetz has denied — and notes that Gaetz’s campaign hired an attorney who represented convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein for his defense. The ad goes on to question whether Gaetz is seeking payback for Trump allegedly denying him a “blanket” presidential pardon before leaving the White House. Lombardo revisited these conspiratorial claims in another ad, titled “The Informant - Part II,” over the weekend, questioning why Donald Trump Jr. was stumping for Gaetz. “Is Trump sending him to get the answers everyone wants?” the narrator asked. “Gaetz hired Epstein’s attorney. Another Epstein attorney approved the raid,” the narrator said. “Did Gaetz cut a deal? Don Jr. deserves the truth. So do Northwest Florida voters. It’s time for Gaetz to come clean, on everything.” In response, Gaetz’s ads and tweets have leaned hard into his relationship with the former president, and he’s called in MAGA-approved reinforcements to back him up: Trump allies like Reps. Jim Jordan (Ohio), Lauren Boebert (Colo.) and Thomas Massie (Ky.) have descended on Florida this month to stump for him. Donald Trump Jr. campaigned for Gaetz on primary eve. Trump himself weighed in over the weekend with a post on Truth Social: He called Gaetz a “Champion of our MAGA Agenda” and said he has his “Complete, and Total Endorsement.” Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh Myah Ward @myahward Naomi Andu @naomiandu   FOLLOW US

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