Showing posts with label OCTOBER SURPRISE. Show all posts
Showing posts with label OCTOBER SURPRISE. Show all posts

Monday, October 19, 2026

Trump Didn’t Wait for an October Surprise. He Hired One.

                                                                                                                                                

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Trump Didn’t Wait for an October Surprise. He Hired One.

Katie Zacharia didn’t even last a week as White House press secretary. But the damage ha been done.


Kristoffer Ealy is a political scientist, political analyst, and professor in Southern California. He teaches American Government and political behavior, with a focus on political psychology, voting behavior, and political socialization. Subscribe to his Substack, The Thinking Class with Professor Ealy.

I have heard of October surprises. Every political junkie has. An October surprise is that deliciously inconvenient political bombshell that drops in the final weeks before a November election, sending campaign managers into cardiac arrest, communications directors scrambling for explanations, and candidates suddenly discovering the importance of spending more time with their families. The phrase took hold during the 1980 presidential election, and ever since, October surprises have become something of an American political tradition.

George W. Bush had his old drunk-driving arrest surface days before the 2000 election. Donald Trump had the Access Hollywood tape in 2016, when America learned that the Republican nominee thought sexual assault sounded like a perfectly reasonable perk of celebrity. Usually, campaigns spend October worrying about what devastating information their opponents might uncover. They have researchers digging through decades of records, consultants preparing emergency talking points, and lawyers standing by in case somebody discovers their candidate once committed a felony, fathered a secret family, or spent an afternoon with Jeffrey Epstein. It’s the political equivalent of waiting for someone to throw a grenade through your living room window.


But Donald Trump, a man who has never encountered a perfectly functioning disaster he couldn’t make considerably worse, decided to revolutionize the entire concept. Why spend October nervously waiting for Democrats to uncover some embarrassing scandal when you can manufacture one yourself? Why let the opposition research department do all the heavy lifting when you have the authority to appoint your very own catastrophe? Trump looked at the Republican Party’s already miserable political situation, surveyed the approaching midterms, and concluded that what his administration desperately needed was another public relations emergency.

And because this man has never believed in doing anything halfway, he personally hired one, gave her access to the White House briefing room, and allowed the entire country to watch the experiment collapse in real time. Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome Katie Zacharia, the first October surprise to come with a federal job title and an introductory press briefing.

Zacharia joins an increasingly distinguished collection of MAGA employees whose White House careers have had roughly the same life expectancy as a mosquito at a backyard barbecue. Sean Spicer, Trump’s first press secretary, spent six miserable months defending presidential nonsense with the frantic desperation of a man trying to convince his wife that the lipstick on his collar came from a particularly affectionate cashier at CVS. Anthony Scaramucci, affectionately known as the Mooch, lasted 11 days as communications director before giving The New Yorker a profanity-filled interview that made him sound like a cocaine-fueled character from Goodfellas who had accidentally wandered into the West Wing.

Michael Flynn made it 24 days as national security adviser before his conversations with the Russian ambassador helped send him packing. Reince Priebus got thrown out as chief of staff during the same week Scaramucci was busy turning the administration into an HBO crime drama. Tom Price resigned from Health and Human Services after discovering that taxpayers were less enthusiastic about financing his private-jet lifestyle than he was. Stephanie Grisham somehow managed nine months as White House press secretary without holding a single press briefing, which is the professional equivalent of being hired as a lifeguard and refusing to acknowledge the existence of water...



Friday, November 1, 2024

5 Days

 

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5 Days

Evening Dispatch

How could this have tanked a campaign?

N.B. Tomorrow night at 7:00 p.m. ET, I’m holding a live Q&A for paid subscribers. I’ll send an email in advance to remind everybody. Can’t wait!


Remember when the slightest missteps could derail a campaign? Michael Dukakis, who ran against George H. W. Bush in 1988, was leading by 17 points before the above picture was taken. He lost in a landslide.

This wasn’t an October Surprise, but it’s a good illustration of just how little it took for a campaign to be derailed—as far as public opinion was considered, Michael Dukakis allowed himself to look ridiculous.

Yesterday, Donald Trump dressed up as a sanitation worker. His bright orange vest, with yellow reflective stripes, clashed crisply with his red tie and burnt umber bronzer. He was barely able to open the door to the garbage truck his campaign was using as a prop.

Today, the bigger story was that Joe Biden called Donald’s supporters trash. Which is a lie.

This was Politico’s take:

“[F]or Trump, the controversy allowed him a pressure-release valve to change the subject from his rally. He won the day.”

After the bizarre garbage truck episode, Donald held a rally in Green Bay, WI during which he said informed us he will “protect” women whether they want it or not, and he wants to bring us back to the good old days of 1798. But Biden didn’t speak articulately enough for people to understand that he said “supporter’s” not “supporters,” so Donald won the day.

It’s all enough to make your head explode—or mine, at any rate.

This is something we’re going to have to grapple with for a long time—why is Donald Trump never held accountable? Why are the rules changed to accommodate his egregious behavior? Why, after all of the crimes and treason and cruelty, is he allowed to roam free?


In modern American presidential elections, an October Surprise has referred to any game-changing revelation that could shift an election in one person’s favor or another. This originated in 1980 when Ronald Reagan worried that the release of the American hostages in Iran would help Jimmy Carter win.

In 2016, the Access Hollywood Tape, was that elections October Surprise. At least it should have been, but then James Comey announced the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s use of an email server, while simultaneously choosing to say nothing about the investigation into Russia’s attempt to help Donald Trump.

The reason October Surprises tend to have an impact is because, since they come so close to an election, they get attention—even if, in retrospect, they don’t deserve to. Not every election has an October Surprise. Although there were two in 2016, usually, there’s only one.

That was then, this is now. In the last 31 days there have been more news stories that qualify as October Surprises than every other election in American presidential history combined.

Here’s a not-quite comprehensive list:

  • October 2nd: A federal judge revealed what we all knew—Donald acted as a private citizen, not as president, when he tried to overthrow our democracy.

  • October 8th: Bob Woodward revealed the existence of seven secret calls between Donald and Putin since leaving office.

  • October 8th: Woodward also revealed that, at the height of COVID, when there was a dangerous scarcity of test kits in this country, Donald sent Putin a COVID testing machine.

  • On October 9th: Donald pulled out of participating in the candidates’ traditional pre-election on 60 Minutes because the producers of the show insisted on fact-checking him. (Let that sink in: The guy who wants to be president believes he should be able to lie prodigiously with impunity.)

  • October 11th: Donald repeats the kind of eugenicist language he has often used in the past – that some people have "bad genes,” that criminality is genetic.

  • October 12th: At a donor dinner, Donald called Vice President Harris the R-word, which the Special Olympics has been labeled hate speech against people with intellectual disabilities

  • October 14th: In the middle of a so-called town hall, Donald stopped answering questions and, for thirty-nine minutes, wandered around the stage, swayed his shoulders, and looked lost and disoriented while an extremely bizarre playlist, including Ave Maria and YMCA, played on a loop.

  • October 20th: Donald threatened to use the military against Americans, the people he purports to want to lead.

  • October 22nd: John Kelly, Donald’s longest-serving Chief of Staff—a retired four-star General—revealed in a New York Times interview, that Donald often praised Hitler. He said that Hitler "did some good things" and he wanted his generals to be as loyal as Hitler's. Kelly said that Donald "fit the definition of a fascist." (The NYT buried the story on page A12.)

  • October 24th: A former Sports Illustrated model came forward with detailed allegations that Donald Trump sexually assaulted her in the presence of Jeffrey Epstein, a notorious rapist and sex-trafficker of young women and girls.

  • October 25th: Jeff Bezos informs the editorial board of The Washington Post that, for the first time in 36 years, the paper will not be endorsing a candidate.

  • October 27th: Donald holds a fascist hate rally at Madison Square Garden:

The case has been made. We just have to hope enough people are getting the message.



FEATURED VIDEO: I spoke with Lawrence O’Donnell in The Last Word about the rally at Madison Square Garden; the origins of Donald’s worsening grievances, insecurities, and psychopathologies; and the right’s hypocrisy on immigration, especially as it is embodied by Donald Trump.

Sunday, July 12, 2020

RSN: FOCUS: Bill Barr Is Running an October-Surprise Factory at Justice





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FOCUS: Bill Barr Is Running an October-Surprise Factory at Justice
William Barr. (photo: Joshua Roberts/Reuters)
Chris Smith, Vanity Fair
Smith writes: "Speculating on an October surprise has been a quadrennial media ritual, much like chatter about the possibility of a brokered convention. This year's version will be a Bill Barr production."

The attorney general’s probe of the Russia probes will inevitably arrive in the midst of campaign season—just one small detail of the Justice Department’s ugly politicization under Barr.

he “October surprise” is the Bigfoot of presidential politics—much rumored, rarely seen. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s announcement, 12 days before election day 1972, that “peace is at hand” in the Vietnam War comes closest to fitting the profile of a late-breaking, calculated, election-influencing ploy, though President Richard Nixon hardly needed the help against Senator George McGovern. Ever since, speculating on an October surprise has been a quadrennial media ritual, much like chatter about the possibility of a brokered convention.
This year’s version will be a Bill Barr production. In May 2019, the attorney general brought in John Durham, the U.S. attorney in Connecticut, to examine the origins of the FBI’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election. Robert Mueller’s report documented ample reasons for the FBI to have opened a probe; Michael Horowitz, the Department of Justice inspector general, declared that the investigation was justified, though he identified FBI procedural errors. None of which seems to have shaken Barr’s longstanding view that the whole Russia thing was a politically motivated conspiracy, so he assigned Durham to find the real facts.
Perhaps new revelations exist. Perhaps the right’s feverish wish to see former FBI director James Comey indicted will finally be granted. Whatever Durham has found now seems likely to be unveiled—coincidentally, of course—in the run-up to this November’s presidential vote. “The DOJ inspector general identified mistakes in the revised applications for surveillance warrants, so an agent or attorney who was involved in that probably needs a good lawyer,” says Renato Mariotti, a former federal prosecutor who has followed the Russia case closely. “Based on what we know now, the Comey stuff is pretty weak, for a lot of reasons. I’ve seen some creative thinking by right-wingers that the memos Comey wrote about his meetings with Trump that ended up leaking are government property, so Comey should be prosecuted for theft. You’re never going to get a conviction on that. If he writes up his fantasy football draft on the office computer, is that government property? Come on.”
Even if Durham’s work does not result in major criminal prosecutions, he and Barr are expected to issue a report asserting their conclusions—something that would break with DOJ precedent, but be completely in character with Barr’s politicization of the department. The attorney general’s attempt to intervene in the sentencing of Roger Stone and Barr’s firing of U.S. Attorney Geoffrey Berman, head of the Southern District of New York, are only his latest high-profile moves to bend Justice in Trump’s favor.
“Barr has a quite inappropriate policy of regularly having people he especially trusts for some reason handling special issues,” says Donald Ayer, who was a deputy attorney general under President George H.W. Bush, a job in which Ayer supervised Barr, who was then head of the DOJ’s Office of Legal Counsel. “He has people come in and second-guess the career lawyers and sometimes decide they’ve really screwed up. Having somebody higher up look at a case and say, ‘No, I don’t think so,’ that’s fine. But having recurrent ad hoc processes, new review levels that didn’t exist before, that’s a problem. For instance, there’s a person or a group of people who are receiving whatever intake there is from Rudy Giuliani, instead of whoever normally takes such complaints or information. I have not spoken with anyone who is in the department now. But I have spoken with a couple of people who have been there recently, and been in positions to know, who have said that morale is just horrible. That’s p
Erica Newland joined the DOJ’s Office of Legal Counsel as an attorney adviser in 2016, during the Obama administration, and left in November 2018, when Jeff Sessions was still attorney general. Things have not improved under Barr. “OLC seems to have abandoned any pretense of impartiality or any pretense of a commitment to the rule-of-law notion that you have to treat like cases alike,” Newland says. “I was really surprised to see the strong language in the June 26 executive order on monuments. It sounded more like a barn burner political speech rather than something with the imprimatur of the country’s top lawyers. I think there has been a radical reorientation of what the office’s purpose is and what the purpose of the attorneys who work there is. Bill Barr has articulated a view of the president as king, and so loyalty is to this president rather than to the Constitution, which is the oath we all take. Phenomenon number two is a culture of fear that has permeated the department since Trump came into office. Fear of the president’s tweets—people saw Bruce Ohr and Andy McCabe having their professional lives destroyed, and that had a strong silencing effect.”
A last-minute rescue of Trump’s reelection chances would far outstrip all of Barr’s previous actions. But even without knowing the results of the Durham investigation, the damage already done to the DOJ’s credibility has been deep and wide.













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