THE BERNIE EFFECT — If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination and goes on to beat Joe Biden in November, it’ll be hard, looking back, to argue Nikki Haley’s campaign meant much of anything. But if Republicans hitch themselves to Trump and he loses in the general election, Haley’s quixotic campaign will likely be viewed in a different light — and so will her political future. In that sense, Haley’s 2024 effort might, on a smaller scale, have some of the same effect on the GOP that Bernie Sanders had on the Democratic Party in 2016. It seems preposterous at first. In just about every ideological and stylistic way, Haley and Sanders, the independent senator from Vermont, are in different galaxies. His electoral record in the 2016 Democratic primary was far more successful than Haley’s. Whereas Sanders won states, Haley lost decisively in Iowa and New Hampshire and, in Nevada, got pummeled by “none of these candidates. ” Haley doesn’t have the same pull with Republicans that Sanders had with Democrats to sway the party’s frontrunner on policy . But as the last serious alternative to Trump, Haley is performing one of the key functions Sanders fulfilled in 2016 — especially as she has stepped up her criticism of Trump in recent weeks . Like Sanders, she is a vessel for the disaffected in her party. And while Haley’s numbers may be weaker than his — Trump’s hold on the GOP is firmer than Hillary Clinton’s ever was – they aren’t nothing, either. In New Hampshire, Haley drew 43 percent of the primary vote . And even if she gets blown out in her home state of South Carolina, polling averages suggest she’s still pulling close to a third of the vote . She is, in some ways, a “statement” candidate — not like Sanders was, in terms of ideology, but as a vote of resistance to Trump. Today, her campaign was fundraising off Republicans’ loss in a special election in New York , calling Trump a “huge weight” on the party and warning that “Until Republicans wake up, we will continue to lose.” Such warnings, in the event of a Trump loss, would look prescient, and could lead to subtle directional changes and primary reforms in the party, just as Sanders accomplished after 2016. It’s valuable that she keeps running, one Republican National Committee member granted anonymity to speak freely told Nightly, “because those of us who don’t want Biden or Trump have to hold out some kind of hope.” “My heart wants her to keep going,” the member said, even if “my head knows this is probably a waste of time.” Even Haley supporters who maintain, against all odds, that she still has a shot at winning can see the dual benefit of staying in the race. For Haley to serve as a “champion of traditional conservative positions” and “show there’s still support for those issues in the Republican Party,” said Art Pope, the former chair of Americans for Prosperity and a Raleigh, N.C.-based donor, “is, I think, a good end in and of itself.” A Trump defeat — which would mark a fourth consecutive election disappointment for the GOP — would amplify Haley’s voice and, if she played it right, could lead to a rethinking of party rules and practices that enabled Trump to subsume the party and bend it to his personal will. Much of the effect that Sanders had on the Democratic Party came from the ashes of Clinton’s loss to Trump in the general election, when Democrats voted to strip superdelegates of much of their power in the presidential nominating process. Those superdelegates, including Democratic National Committee members and other top Democrats, had gone heavily for Clinton, and their weakening was a major, lasting victory for the party’s progressive left. In 2024, Haley’s version of the progressive left would be the Republican Party’s old establishment. To have such an impact, she’d have to grit her teeth and endorse Trump at some point, as Sanders did with Clinton, and then do just enough to shut down accusations that her supporters cost Trump the election. That should be relatively easy for her . And at 52, Haley can afford to play the long game. Sanders maintained his viability for one more campaign in 2020 – a campaign in which he was the front-runner at one point. Another option is to do what Sanders and his supporters did with superdelegates at the DNC -- taking her fight to the Republican National Committee. Earlier this week, she gave an indication of what that might look like. After Trump announced he was endorsing North Carolina’s Michael Whatley , who supported Trump’s baseless claims of voter fraud in 2020 , for RNC chair, and Lara Trump, his daughter-in-law, for co-chair, Betsy Ankney, Haley’s campaign manager, released a statement outlining Haley’s plan for the RNC. “Blow it all up,” she said. “Everyone at the RNC will be fired, there will be a full and complete audit of the gross misuse of funds, and there will be a formal application process to become RNC chair based on MERIT, not on back scratching. The days of overpaid consultants getting rich off of the RNC while losing elections will be over, and Republicans will finally get back to WINNING.” Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at dsiders@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @davidsiders .
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