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Morning Digest, sponsored by Oath: Republicans steer cash to Nebraska's Senate race
The GOP is trying to label independent Dan Osborn a Democrat
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Leading Off
NE-Sen
A well-connected Republican group has begun spending millions to stop Dan Osborn, the independent candidate seeking to unseat GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts in Nebraska’s closely watched Senate race.
Cornhusker Majority, an organization Axios reports has ties to the deep-pocketed Senate Leadership Fund, uses its opening ad campaign to portray Osborn as a “phony ‘independent’” who’s really a Democrat.
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“[N]ational Democrats got caught spending nearly $10 million to help elect Osborn after they tried to hide it,” declares the narrator. “This summer, the Democrat nominee dropped out to help Osborn.” The ad continues, “Osborn was caught on tape admitting he would support the Democrats in the Senate.”
The offensive, which CNN’s Patrick Svitek says is backed by a $3.8 million buy, marks a notable escalation. FEC reports show that allies of Ricketts had already spent about $3 million before Cornhusker Majority’s investment, while Osborn’s supporters had deployed a nearly identical sum.
Osborn, a former labor leader and Navy veteran, ran for Nebraska’s other U.S. Senate seat in 2024 and held GOP Sen. Deb Fischer to a 53-47 victory. That same year, Ricketts won a special election for the seat he’d just been appointed to by a far wider 63-37 margin against a Democrat.
Osborn, who was Fischer’s only opponent, told Politico during that race that he wanted to create an “independent caucus” in the Senate rather than ally with either party, and he’s once again pledged not to caucus with either Democrats or Republicans.
The GOP, however, is arguing that Osborn would simply empower Democrats in a race where, following Cindy Burbank’s withdrawal in July, the Democratic Party again is not fielding a candidate. Ricketts labeled his rival “Democrat Dan” no fewer than 40 times at a recent debate, according to a tally by the Omaha World-Herald.
“Pete’s gonna talk about a lot of this guy that I don’t know, his name’s ‘Democrat Dan,’” Osborn said at the event, joking, “We should actually have a third podium here for him.” But Osborn, who posted a video snarking that viewers should “take a shot every time Pete says ‘Democrat Dan,’” may have given his adversaries fodder to undermine his independent bona fides.
The World-Herald published a story on Wednesday featuring previously unreported comments Osborn made this summer in which he tried to explain to supporters why he believed many voters in Nebraska still backed Donald Trump even as the economy worsened.
“Billy Bob in fucking Red Cloud, Nebraska, who lives next door to the fucking Trump store as you pull into town and is waving the Trump flag—all he knows is he’s like on the winning team,” Osborn said in a recording shared by the paper. “And Trump—that is why he’s been so effective.”
The candidate continued, “He’s been so effective at taking Billy Bob and his wife Mary Jane or Mary Jo and telling them, look, we’re winning, you’re on the winning team. And that’s all they care about, because their lives probably suck so fucking bad.”
In February, the Plain Sentinel, a conservative site, reported that Osborn suggested he could ultimately caucus with Democrats at a town hall last year.
“If what I’m trying to do isn’t working, there’s only one party I would caucus with,” the piece quoted Osborn telling the audience at an event. When one attendee pressed him on which party, Osborn reportedly responded, “Not Pete Ricketts’ party.” Cornhusker Majority cited that piece in its ad to bolster its case that Osborn would side with Democrats.
The group’s intervention has helped the GOP secure a huge advertising advantage for a contest where limited recent polling has shown a tight race. AdImpact reported Wednesday that the GOP has $4.9 million booked for the remainder of the general election, more than ten times the $423,000 Osborn’s side has reserved.
Osborn, though, has reason to be optimistic that he’ll receive more outside support, including from Democrats who want Ricketts out of office.
In 2024, pro-Osborn outfits spent more than $20 million in 2024 to aid him against Fischer, which was more than twice what Republicans spent. Democratic groups like the Senate Majority PAC funded the main pro-Osborn super PAC rather than air ads directly, a move that made it tougher for Republicans to link Osborn directly to a party he doesn’t belong to.
It remains to be seen if Cornhusker Majority’s entry into this race will lead to a similar response in a contest where Osborn lacks one of the advantages he had two years ago. While he was Fischer’s sole opponent, there are three other candidates on the ballot this time who could draw voters who don’t like Ricketts but aren’t sold on Osborn.
The field consists of Chuck Conboy of the America First Party and Robin Richards of the Nebraska Working People Party, who both represent new parties that only came into being this year. The final name belongs to Legal Marijuana Now Party nominee Mike Marvin, who remains on the ballot even though he dropped out last month and endorsed Osborn.
The Downballot Podcast
How the USPS’ mail ballot gambit got smacked down
Donald Trump just tried to interfere with the midterms in a very baroque way—and swiftly got smacked down by the courts. But what exactly was he trying to do, and how was he trying to do it?
On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, election law expert Justin Levitt explains how the U.S. Postal Service tried to issue new rules for mail ballots that would have resulted in many never reaching voters, and how election officials fought back by showing that they would have been impossible to comply with—and almost certainly illegal. Levitt also tells us why he doesn’t think similar gambits are likely to succeed in the future.
Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also put a bow on the Missouri redistricting saga, which came to an end just after our last episode went live when the Supreme Court made it clear that the state could not use the GOP’s new gerrymander. The Davids then discuss the belated Republican rescue mission in Texas, where a floundering Ken Paxton is finally getting some help … that may have arrived too late.
Ballot Measures
CA Ballot
A new poll finds a small majority of California voters in favor of a proposed wealth tax, but that same survey shows two rival plans passing by larger margins.
The Public Policy Institute of California says 52% of respondents plan to vote “yes” on Proposition 40, which would levy a one-time 5% tax on residents with a net worth of $1 billion, with 46% against.
But the proposal’s detractors—like Google co-founder Sergey Brin, who is funding an organization to oppose the wealth tax—have a plan in place to stop it even if “yes” prevails. Brin’s side is backing a pair of initiatives that would prevent the wealth tax from going into effect should either receive more “yes” votes than Proposition 40.
PPIC finds that this strategy might work. A 51-44 majority supports Proposition 41, which Politico explains would “require audits of state spending while invalidating the wealth tax because of how it would allocate money.” An even larger 54-43 spread favors Proposition 42, which would stop the state from taxing assets like stocks and investment accounts.
PPIC also polled 11 other statewide ballot measures and found two proposals to change how elections operate badly losing.
A 59-35 majority opposes Proposition 5, which would overhaul the state’s rules for recall elections. Democrats in the state legislature voted in 2024 to place the measure on the ballot after the GOP unsuccessfully tried to recall Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2021.
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Proposition 39, a conservative-backed proposal to require voters to present identification, is likewise losing 55-43. Democrat Xavier Becerra, whom PPIC shows leading Republican Steve Hilton 60-38 in the race to succeed the termed-out Newsom, has made defeating Proposition 39 a priority.
Poll Pile
All polls must comply with The Downballot’s requirements.
IA-Sen: co/efficient:
Ashley Hinson (R): 46, Josh Turek (D): 42, Thomas Laehn (L): 2.
Hinson (R): 48, Turek (D): 43.
Co/efficient, a Republican firm, says this poll was “[n]ot sponsored by any candidate committee, party committee, or other independent expenditure.”
MN-Sen: SurveyUSA for KSTP, KAAL, and WDIO:
Peggy Flanagan (D): 42, Michelle Tafoya (R): 42, Marisa Simonetti (I): 2, Rebecca Whiting (L): 2.
Aug.: 46-41 Flanagan.
CT-Gov: Quinnipiac University:
Ned Lamont (D-inc): 55, Ryan Fazio (R): 38.
IA-Gov: co/efficient:
Rob Sand (D): 46, Zach Lahn (R): 42.
MN-Gov: SurveyUSA:
Amy Klobuchar (D): 47, Lisa Demuth (R): 40, Steve Young (G): 3.
Aug.: 52-36 Klobuchar.
GA-11: Miller Consulting Services for Chris Harden:
Harden (D): 42, John Cowan (R): 40.
MT-02: Rutgers University for the Montana Free Press:
Troy Downing (R-inc): 48, Brian Miller (D): 26, Michael Eisenhauer (I): 9, Patrick McCracken (L): 5.
NE-01: GSG for Fight For Nebraska (pro-Chris Backemeyer):
Backemeyer (D): 43, Mike Flood (R-inc): 42.
The poll also found 7% supporting third-party candidates. Libertarian Nik Sandman was identified by name, while candidates for the Nebraska Working People Party and the America First Party were identified only by party affiliation.
MN-AG: SurveyUSA:
Ron Schutz (R): 45, Keith Ellison (D-inc): 43.
Aug.: 43-43 tie.
MN-SoS: SurveyUSA:
Steve Simon (D-inc): 40, Tad Jude (R): 36, Seth Kuhl-Stennes (G): 3, George Tangen (L): 2.
Aug.: 41-34 Simon.
MN Auditor: SurveyUSA:
Scott Jensen (R): 43, Zack Filipovich (D): 36, Jay Reeves (Forward Independence Party): 4.
Aug.: 39-39 tie.
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