BALLOT MEASURE BATTLES — On Tuesday, voters in 41 states will decide on a total of 146 statewide ballot measures. That’s up from 116 from the last presidential year in 2020 and down slightly from 162 in 2016. They tell us a lot about the priorities of voters across the country — and how major political parties use the ballot initiative process to define their policy priorities and gin up turnout. There’s no clearer way to measure this than to examine Democrats’ abortion advocacy. Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in the summer of 2022, every time an abortion rights protection-related initiative has been on the ballot — no matter whether the state is red or blue — it has passed. Abortion is Democrats’ strongest issue among the American electorate this year, and as such, Democrats across the country engaged in campaigns to get abortion-related initiatives on state ballots. This year, various abortion-related ballot initiatives are at issue in 10 separate states, from the red (South Dakota) to the purple (Arizona) to the blue (Maryland). That theoretically serves two purposes for liberals: It protects a woman’s right to choose and while also juicing Democratic turnout. Other issues don’t fall along such neat ideological lines, pitting different coalitions against one another without clear consequences for one party or another. Still, both kinds of ballot measures have significant policy and political implications. To help understand them, here’s a guide to the five ballot initiatives that will tell us the most about American politics — and why they’re important. Amendment 3, Florida: The latest in the series of marijuana legalization ballot measures that have swept the country in the last decade, Amendment 3 would make Florida the 25th state to legalize recreational cannabis (it’s also on the ballot Tuesday in North Dakota, South Dakota and Nebraska). The constitutional amendment is remarkable for the amount of money that’s been raised to support or oppose it — more than $100 million, over $80 million of which is through Smart & Safe Florida, a ballot measure committee that supports legalization. It feels almost inevitable that the march to legalize marijuana will continue throughout the country; since Colorado first legalized recreational weed in 2012, only a few states have rejected recreational marijuana legalization initiatives. But as the rollout to actually sell weed has been fraught with issues in states that have previously voted to legalize — and GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis has vigorously opposed it — Amendment 3 in Florida will be useful in understanding just how strongly Floridians believe in loosening restrictions on the drug. Issue 1, Ohio: This proposed constitutional amendment would change Ohio’s redistricting process for congressional and legislative districts — and a group dedicated to ending gerrymandering in the state called Citizens Not Politicians has raised almost $40 million in support of the measure. If Issue 1 passes, it would create a 15-member, independent, bipartisan commission responsible for redistricting, replacing the current seven-member commission of elected officials that draws lines for the state legislature and the multi-step process used for congressional seats. The change isn’t welcomed by Ohio’s ruling party, the GOP, since it could theoretically imperil some safe Republican seats. But independent redistricting commissions — designed to take politics out of drawing congressional or state legislative maps — have been popular with voters elsewhere and similar ballot initiatives have passed in red states including Missouri and Utah. Proposition 36, California: Proposition 47, a California ballot measure that passed with almost 60 percent support in 2014, reduced the penalties for some drug offenses and property crimes. But in the decade since, it’s become a boogeyman for conservatives across the nation, who argue that it’s the basis for increased disorder in the Golden State. Prop 36 — backed by prosecutors and Target and Walmart in the state — would roll back some of the provisions in Prop 47, making it easier to prosecute retail crime like shoplifting in particular. Gov. Gavin Newsom and top statewide Democrats have come out against the measure, but it’s attracted some support from Democratic mayors, and polling suggests it will pass by a landslide. The likely popularity of Prop 36 speaks to a broader turn right on criminal justice in California and elsewhere. In 2022, progressive San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin was successfully recalled by voters, while a separate effort to recall Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascó, fell short after recall supporters failed to get enough signatures. This year, fellow reformer Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price faces her own attempted recall. It’s reflective of a backlash against progressive criminal justice policy and reforms after a brief shift to the left. THOSE 'TIPS' WOULD BECOME THE EMPLOYERS'.... Question 5, Massachusetts: A ‘yes’ on Question 5 would increase the minimum wage for tipped workers in Massachusetts to the state minimum wage — currently $15/hour — by 2029 (tipped workers’ minimum wage in Massachusetts is currently $6.75/hour). Increasing the minimum wage has long been a staple of the progressive movement, but this question has turned into an intra-Democratic Party fight. Earlier today, Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey and Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll came out against the measure , arguing that increasing the minimum wage would actually lower servers’ total compensation as well as raise costs on customers. Tipped workers themselves are divided on the issue. Workers who favor the proposal argue that the heavy turnover among staff in service jobs largely has to do with a lack of a steady paycheck — and a higher minimum wage could help staffers who want to remain in their jobs without having to rely almost entirely on tips, which fluctuate. Restaurant owners insist that they’ll have to cut jobs and express concern for their survival if they have to more than double the minimum wage. A simple question of whether to increase the minimum wage has suddenly become a much thornier political problem, as Massachusetts progressives find themselves up against the state’s Democratic governor. Proposition 139, Arizona: Prop 139, one of 10 abortion-related measures on the ballot across the country, is not the most expensive or contentious abortion-related initiative (that distinction belongs to a similar measure, Amendment 4, in Florida). But it’s the most representative of the Democratic strategy of putting abortion in front of voters to drive turnout in swing states. Abortion rights are an essential moral issue for many voters. But there’s also a political component at work. Victory in Arizona looks shaky for Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris. Democrats, though, believe Harris’ chances are enhanced in the state by placing one of their strongest issues directly on the ballot along with the presidential race. The question is whether that support can translate directly into votes for Harris herself. September polling from The New York Times/Siena College showed that 58 percent of likely voters supported Prop 139, but only 45 percent supported Harris. That’s a whopping 13-point gap — and potentially speaks to a new kind of ticket splitter, one that supports Democrat-backed issues but not necessarily the Democrat at the top of the ticket. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh.
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