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*This transcript was generated by a third-party transcription software company, so please excuse any typos.
In the 20 plus years that I have been covering American politics, working for progressive media, every single presidential election cycle, we get Democrats starting all the way back in 2004 when I started. Is this the year that Texas is gonna turn blue? We heard it in oh 4, 0 8 12 16 20. And now of course we are hearing it once again in the year 2024. Except things might actually be a little bit different this time. I know, uh, in recent segments, honestly, I have, uh, kind of poo-pooed the idea that this is gonna be the year Texas turns blue. Uh, I have said it could certainly happen in the future, but it's not gonna happen this year. And I'm at the point now where I'm going to stop making predictions like that. Uh, because based on the latest survey from the University of Houston, it could happen this year.
The University of Houston came out with a poll that I gladly admit is, uh, kind of proving me wrong, although not quite yet. But according to this new poll, Donald Trump's lead over the Democratic opponent who at this point obviously is Kamala Harris has been cut in half. He was beating President Biden, you know, a month or so ago by nine points in the state of Texas. And now Donald Trump only has a four point lead over Kamala Harris in the state of Texas. Let me read you this 'cause it's not just bad news for Donald Trump either. Ted Cruz is also in deep, deep trouble in Texas. Here's what the poll said. The survey conducted by the University of Houston found Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris, 49.5% to 44.6%. So I'm sorry, it's actually, you know, 4.9%. While Ted Cruz led representative Colin Allred, 46.6% to 44.5% in Texas, which is a substantial turnaround from an earlier poll that found the Republican nominee leading President Joe Biden by 49% to 40% Trump is plus four 4.9.
So we're gonna call that five Cruz is plus two. And here's the funnier part about Ted Cruz's poll numbers. The margin of error in the poll was 2.65%. So if the margin for error is 2.65% and Ted Cruz only has a 2.1% lead, that means technically by definition it is actually a statistical tie that is insanely shocking. And here's why this turnaround has happened. A poll conducted in June by the university's Hobby School of Public Affairs found Biden with just 40% in a head-to-head matchup with Trump. But the new survey found Harris gained 8% over the president among women, 13 points among voters who did not participate in 20, 20 16 points among generation Z voters and
21 points with independence. So Harris has now energized people in Texas who either were not old enough to vote in 2020. So these are new voters, so that could change the landscape in the state of Texas. She won over people that simply didn't vote in 2020. Now they're saying, okay, I'll vote this year and I'm not gonna vote for the Republican, the independents, the people who either election, you know, maybe I'll go this way, maybe I'll go that way. I don't know they're going to Harris. This is insane. And of course, obviously Harris is making huge strides with women as Donald Trump continues to turn away suburban women voters. Now here's the thing, and this is what is really interesting to me about this. A poll came out last week that Republicans were freaking out about, and they are freaking the hell out about this one too, trust me, uh, describing it as a five alarm fire.
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