FOCUS: Michael McFaul | Are Putin and Xi as Close as Everyone Assumes?

 

28 March 23

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FOCUS: Michael McFaul | Are Putin and Xi as Close as Everyone Assumes?
Michael McFaul, McFaul's World
McFaul writes: 'Did Putin read my last Substack article? The one in which I called the Xi-Putin summit a 'big win for Xi' and a 'small win for Putin'? Maybe Putin wasn’t so thrilled with that assessment. Because over the weekend, Putin struck back against Xi.' 

Putin's decision to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus bluntly contradicts a joint statement that he just signed with Xi. Some “friend”!

Did Putin read my last Substack article? The one in which I called the Xi-Putin summit a “big win for Xi” and a “small win for Putin”? (If you missed it, here it is: https://michaelmcfaul.substack.com/p/deliverables-vs-nice-words-reflections.) Maybe Putin wasn’t so thrilled with that assessment. Because over the weekend, Putin struck back against Xi.

While Xi was in Moscow last week, the two leaders signed a joint statement which among other things declared, "All nuclear-weapon states should refrain from deploying nuclear weapons abroad and withdraw nuclear weapons deployed abroad." Putin then announced plans to do the exact opposite over the weekend, agreeing with Belarusian dictator, Mr. Lukashenko, to deploy Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Apparently, Putin’s Belarusian buddy is more important to him that his “dear friend,” Xi.

If Putin was planning this move for a while, he could have left that phrase out of the Chinese-Russian joint statement. Or he could have waited for a while so that we analysts could have all forgotten about the joint statement as we almost always do with time. There is nothing urgent, after all, about this deployment. Putin has plenty of nuclear weapons with capabilities against Ukraine already. So, the timing seems on purpose. Maybe Putin was so disappointed with the lack of gifts that Xi brought to Moscow – no weapons, no economic assistance, a pledge to buy Russian energy at discounted prices – that he wanted to get back at Xi with the only power card he holds in his hand: nuclear weapons.

Xi cannot be happy. Putin disrespected him. So too did Lukashenko, who Xi just hosted in Beijing at a very fancy summit at which Xi championed China’s “unbreakable” friendship with Belarus. And if Putin felt no obligation to adhere to the part of the resolution, does he feel the same lack of commitment to all the other sections of the joint statement? Are these just meaningless documents to him? I wonder what Xi thinks.

The Biden administration should try to find out. Now would be a perfect moment for Secretary Blinken to take his postponed trip to Beijing. The United States has an interest in fostering a wedge between Putin’s Russia and Xi’s China. Blinken should travel now.

The Biden administration also should use this moment to finally sanction more Belarusian individuals and companies for supporting Putin’ invasion of Ukraine. They should have done so long ago since Lukashenko has been aiding Putin’s barbaric war from the very beginning. But now is the perfect moment to finally do so. The more and harsher sanctions the better.

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