Middleboro Review 2: POLITICO NIGHTLY: Biden, McCarthy and the power of low expectations

Monday, January 30, 2023

POLITICO NIGHTLY: Biden, McCarthy and the power of low expectations

Then-Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy at a meeting with President Joe Biden, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and other congressional leaders in November. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

STAREDOWN — After facing a multitude of hurdles during his fight for the speakership, now Kevin McCarthy confronts his next challenge: negotiating a high stakes deal with President Joe Biden to raise the nation’s borrowing limit. The two will meet Wednesday to discuss a path to raising the $31 trillion debt ceiling, which hit its limit earlier this month and resulted in what Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen calls “extraordinary measures” to keep the U.S. afloat.

The first official meeting between the speaker and the president takes place with the two sides seemingly at loggerheads. Biden has publicly stated that he will not negotiate on the issue, arguing that Congress has an obligation to prevent a national default. McCarthy, channeling House Republicans who will not approve a debt ceiling increase without cuts to spending programs, says he views the meeting as an opportunity to propose budget cuts as a possible solution.

Despite leading a narrow and fractious House majority, McCarthy has expressed optimism that he can cut a deal with Biden and insisted the U.S. wouldn’t default on its debt. When asked what his message to McCarthy would be, Biden said: “Show me your budget. I’ll show you mine .”

Nightly spoke with POLITICO White House reporter Adam Cancryn on what to expect from Wednesday’s meeting and what it will take for the two to reach an agreement. This interview has been edited.

Do we have any insight into what kind of relationship Biden and McCarthy have, if any? How optimistic do you think they are going into the meeting?

They don’t have much of a relationship at all, and that’s going to be one of the key elements in how this debt ceiling saga plays out — can Biden and McCarthy develop some sort of a productive working relationship that helps find a resolution before we hit a crisis point? At least at the outset here, I think both sides aren’t expecting too much from this meeting. Biden has pledged to essentially say to McCarthy what he’s said publicly: There’ll be no negotiation. And while McCarthy has tried to cast this meeting as an early victory, there’s no expectation that he’ll somehow emerge with a deal — or even the starting point of a deal — in hand.

What pressures do McCarthy and Biden face from within their own parties?

For McCarthy, just take a look at what it took for him to secure the speakership in the first place. He had to cut all manner of deals with his conference’s most conservative members, including the ability for any one lawmaker to call for a vote to kick him out of the job. So he’s going into this severely limited in terms of the power he has to credibly negotiate on behalf of his party, much less agree to any deal that might be short of the severe spending cuts those conservative members are demanding. And for Biden, he’s already said he won’t negotiate, so anything he does that appears to back off that position could expose him to criticism — especially from progressives who believe he should hold out and force Republicans to fold on their demands.

What will the outcome of the meeting look like with Biden already pledging that there’ll be no negotiation?

Don’t get your hopes up for any concrete progress. The best guess as of now is the two sides will end up reiterating their positions, with Biden stressing he’s open to talking about other fiscal policies but not if they’re tied to the debt ceiling, and McCarthy urging the White House to relent and hammer out a deal. But at the very least, it’ll represent a start to this lengthy process, an opportunity for Biden and McCarthy to talk face to face and maybe give us a glimmer of how the rest of this showdown is going to play out.

Could you go into more detail on what it would take for Biden or McCarthy to shift their positions and settle on a deal? What can we expect from this process going forward?

Firstly, McCarthy is going to need to lay out what Republicans actually want in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. While the GOP has floated a number of demands, it’s unclear what his conference can agree on and whether it’s something Biden would be willing to understand. So until we have a better sense of the parameters, these talks aren’t going to go very far. Whenever McCarthy does starts to sharpen his demands, we’ll be closely watching A) Whether the White House is willing to come off its no negotiation stance and engage, and B) For any signs of discord within the GOP House over their leadership’s approach.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at klong@politico.com or on Twitter at @katherinealong .

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WHAT'D I MISS?

— Southwest hires its first new lobbyist in years amid multi-prong controversies: Southwest Airlines has brought on new lobbying firepower for the first time in almost half a decade, as the airline weathers new scrutiny in Washington over the scheduling meltdown last month. The carrier hired former Rep. Jerry Costello (D-Ill.) earlier this month to lobby on the upcoming Federal Aviation Administration reauthorization, according to disclosures filed over the weekend. The Illinois Democrat, who left Congress in 2013 after 25 years in the House, previously served as chair of the aviation subcommittee of the House Transportation and Infrastructure panel.

— Oversight leaders will work on a legislative fix after classified documents fiasco: House Oversight Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) and Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) have agreed to work on a legislative fix to how documents are packed up at the end of the administration . The disclosure comes after last year’s search at Mar-a-Lago for classified documents at Donald Trump’s residence, as well as recent disclosures from Biden and former Vice President Mike Pence that they had classified records. The agreement could mark a rare moment of bipartisanship in a largely partisan fight over the steady drop of statements from Biden and his legal team over the documents.

— Meadows ally set to plead guilty for illegal campaign finance contribution: A family friend of former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows has agreed to plead guilty to accepting an illegal campaign contribution during an ill-fated 2020 run to succeed the former Trump White House chief of staff in Congress, according to newly-released court papers. Lynda Bennett, who lost in a 2020 Republican primary campaign to former Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.), accepted a contribution from a family member exceeding $25,000, according to charging paperwork filed by prosecutors. That contribution was given “in the name of another person,” according to the papers, signed by U.S. Attorney Matthew Graves and Corey Amundson, chief of the Justice Department’s Public Integrity Section.

AROUND THE WORLD

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Israel Minster of Foreign Affairs Eli Cohen. | Amir Levy/Getty Images

CLASHES IN THE WEST BANK — U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Israelis and Palestinians to calm tensions after a weekend of bloody clashes in the disputed territory of the West Bank.

"To take an innocent life in an act of terrorism is always a heinous crime but to target people outside their place of worship is especially shocking," he said while visiting Jerusalem, referring to a shooting outside a synagogue Friday which killed seven Israelis, in the deadliest attack in the city since 2008.

“We condemn all those who celebrate these and any other acts of terrorism that take civilian lives no matter who the victim is or what they believe. Calls for vengeance against more innocent victims are not the answer. And acts of retaliatory violence against civilians are never justified.”

Blinken’s visit comes amid a flare-up of violence between Israeli security forces and Palestinians which has escalated in recent weeks. The same day as the Friday massacre, rockets were fired from the Palestinian territory of Gaza and Israeli jets attacked a bomb-making facility operated by the militant Hamas, according to Israeli intelligence.

The rising conflict comes after Israeli soldiers killed nine Palestinians and injured 20 in a military raid on Thursday, which Israel claimed was conducted to apprehend members of Jihadist groups involved with attacks against the government.

Since the new year, more than one Palestinian has been killed a day on average, which puts 2023 on track to double the rate of lethal violence in the West Bank in 2022, which was already the highest on record.

The hardline administration of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a statement on Sunday that vowed to explore “additional deterrent measures regarding the families of terrorists that express support for terrorism.” That includes the ability for the Israeli government to strip residency and citizenship and a vow from the right-wing president to “strengthen” settlements in the West Bank.

The Biden administration has said it will “strongly oppose” construction of new settlements in the disputed territory, and most of the international community see Israeli expansion over land claimed by Palestinians as a barrier to peace.

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NIGHTLY NUMBER

$222 million

The amount of money that the German government has pledged towards fighting climate change and funding environmental projects in Brazil , German development minister Svenja Schulze announced today. Germany halted any investment in preserving the Amazon rainforest, after former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro dissolved a committee that selected projects to finance and called the Amazon an internal affair. But after the election of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Germany has recommitted to preventing deforestation in the country.

RADAR SWEEP

GOT A PLAN FOR THAT — Just about 60 miles from the center of Beijing, China is building a new city — called Xiongan — from scratch. Chinese President Xi Jinping has staked his personal reputation on the success of Xiongan, which already includes a massive, high-speed train hub opened in 2020 and plans to house three million people. They’re also building a huge hub for data collection. As Xiongan is built under the direct supervision of Xi and the Chinese Communist Party, it reflects many of their goals for the country — quick economic growth through central planning and an increased commitment to surveilling their citizens. But as growth slows around China, the future of Xiongan has become imperiled. Andrew Stokols reports for Foreign Policy Magazine.

PARTING WORDS

POLITICO illustrations by Jade Cuevas/Photos by Getty Images/AP/iStock

GUIDE TO THE GOP PROBES — Speaker Kevin McCarthy has told House Republicans to treat every committee like the Oversight panel — that is, use every last bit of authority to dig into the Biden administration. That work begins in earnest this week, writes Jordain Carney .

Several sprawling probes — largely directed at Biden, his family and his administration — set the stage for a series of legal and political skirmishes between the two sides of Pennsylvania Avenue. It’s all with an eye on the true battle, the 2024 election, as Biden flirts with a reelection run and House Republicans hope to expand their control to the White House.

The GOP’s conservative base, in particular, is hoping for fireworks, calling on Republican leaders to grill several Biden world figures, including Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, retired chief medical adviser Anthony Fauci and presidential son Hunter Biden.

But GOP leadership has to mind its swing-district members and centrists, whose jobs are on the line if the strategy backfires in 2024, as early calls to impeach Mayorkas have sparked grumbling in that camp. Striking the right balance will be a difficult lift, even without Democrats constantly blasting the investigations as revenge politics run amok.

Regardless, the GOP’s investigative firehose will leave few parts of the administration untouched. Check out a field guide to the GOP’s plans , assembled after chatting with Republican lawmakers, aides and outside allies, with hearings expected to start this week.