RSN: 'Hat in Hand': Putin Meets Xi at Summit in Samarkand

 

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RSN: 'Hat in Hand': Putin Meets Xi at Summit in Samarkand

excerpts: 

Putin’s predicaments – a military quagmire in Ukraine, waves of sanctions on the Russian economy, and growing international isolation – meant that he now came “hat in hand” to meet with China.

Yet, too little support for Putin could endanger ties with the leader of a country with whom China shares a more than 4,000-kilometre-long border, and whose economic and trade needs are compatible – cheap Russian fuel and raw materials in exchange for Chinese liquidity, Gabuev said.

... while Russia has become increasingly reliant on Beijing for its economic survival.

China’s deep reliance on trade with the West means that Beijing will not want to do anything that jeopardises its economy rebuilding after the COVID-19 pandemic, said Seva Gunitsky, associate professor of political science at the University of Toronto.

“It’s not a good time to risk anything to come to the aid of Russia, particularly when Russia is doing so poorly in the war,” Gunitsky told Al Jazeera.

And while Putin is doing so badly in the conflict, Beijing is not going to “jump in the same pool of fire” with Russia.

One notable tectonic change in international relations since the invasion of Ukraine has been the price Russia is paid for fuel exports by its new Asian customers.

Chinese data showed this week that China is buying more of less expensive Russian energy supplies. Russia became China’s top crude oil supplier from May to July, a volume amount that accounted for 19 percent of all China’s crude imports, Reuters reported.

For liquified natural gas (LNG), China’s imports from Russia rose 26 percent in the first seven months of this year compared with the same period in 2021. China’s coal imports from Russia also jumped to their highest level in at least five years in July.

“China saved about $3bn in buying Russian oil versus other imports between April and July,” Reuters calculated, noting that China paid about $708 per tonne for Russian crude while the value of imports from other importing countries was $816 per tonne.

And while the financial gains for China are obvious, Russia remains more reliant on the trade than China, analysts said.

India, too, is reaping the benefits of cheap Russian energy, according to Reuters.

Rarely purchasing Russian oil in the past, India has now become Moscow’s second-largest oil customer after China as Indian refineries have snapped up discounted Russian oil that has been shunned by Western countries.

Tarnished the authoritarian ‘brand’

“That is why Putin has resorted so readily to military force – in Georgia, Syria, Ukraine and, more covertly, in Iraq, Libya, Mali and the Central African Republic,” Lo says.

The invasion of Ukraine has also weakened China’s hand on Taiwan, as both US Democrats and Republicans now agree on the need to defend the island, which also means confronting China, Lo said.

China can see that Putin has made many missteps in Ukraine, Lo said, where his actions have revealed the Russian president “to be not only vicious, but also acutely fallible”.

Xi, he said, can not be happy with Putin’s tarnishing of the authoritarian “brand” through a failing military campaign that had undermined “authoritarianism’s reputation for efficiency”.

Putin has set a very poor example, he added.

“The Russian invasion of Ukraine has become an anti-modal of how an authoritarian state should pursue its interests.”

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