POLITICO NIGHTLY: Counting the Senate votes to convict Trump

BY RENUKA RAYASAM TRY, TRY AGAIN — Now it’s the Senate’s turn to decide whether President Donald Trump will make history again, this time either as the first president to be removed from office or as the first president to be convicted for impeachable offenses after leaving the White House. In a historic first, Trump was impeached for the second time today. Mitch McConnell threw the outcome of the Senate trial — and Trump’s future political ambitions — in doubt Tuesday night when he privately indicated that Trump’s actions qualify him for removal from office, according to a source familiar with his thinking. But that doesn’t mean McConnell would vote to convict, congressional reporter Andrew Desiderio told Nightly today. McConnell sent a note to his GOP members this afternoon stating, “I have not made a final decision on how I will vote.” At the same time, Lindsey Graham has been calling his Republican colleagues in the Senate to urge them against convicting. What happens next? The Nightly chatted over Slack with Andrew about what to watch for in Trump’s second Senate trial, which Andrew expects to start next week when the Senate reconvenes on Jan. 19. This conversation has been edited. So, wow, this revelation that McConnell thinks the president could be guilty. What is behind that? McConnell has put up with a lot over the past four years to get what he wants — things like conservative judges and Supreme Court justices, as well as tax cuts and deregulation. He is said to be sick of Trump, especially after the Georgia runoffs. He is looking for the best way to diminish Trump’s influence within the GOP moving forward. If McConnell votes to convict — which is now more of a possibility than it was before today — then I think it’s nearly certain that 17+ Republicans will vote to convict. What about Graham’s thinking? The reality is that the GOP base is still firmly behind Trump. And some Republicans worry that impeaching and convicting Trump would just embolden him. They’re already afraid of Trump-backed primary challenges in 2022 and 2024. As for the possible 2024 candidates, I’d expect them to ultimately stick with Trump during the trial even as they have condemned the president’s rhetoric leading up to the riots. It’s quite notable that Graham and McConnell are now taking such different approaches to all of this. I really do think it’s more of a matter of whether Trump is good for the party, especially after so many Republicans blamed him for the Georgia losses. Last year, Senate Democrats wanted to call witnesses in the impeachment trial while Republicans voted against calling new witnesses. Do you think their positions will be reversed this time around with Democrat Chuck Schumer as majority leader? It’s a moot point because there was no inquiry in the House this time — no committee hearings, no subpoenas, no witness testimony. In this case, there are no witnesses to call because the entire effort is focused on Trump’s public posture and public statements in the run-up to Jan. 6. House Democrats felt that there was really no investigation that was necessary here and that they had all of the information they needed. Of course, a single senator could make a motion to hear from a witness. But I would expect that Democrats want to get the trial done as soon as possible in order to clear the schedule for Biden’s Cabinet nominees as well as another Covid-19 relief package. Any chance that Congress could use the 14th Amendment to bar Trump from running for office again, even without a conviction in a Senate trial? Not really. I would say it’s too early for that and not really worth addressing yet to be honest. If you had to place a bet on how many Republicans will vote against Trump, what would you say? I’ve been burned on these types of predictions in the past, but as of this writing, I would bet that at least five Republican senators vote in favor of conviction. Mitt Romney, Lisa Murkowski, Ben Sasse, Pat Toomey and Susan Collins are the five, I would say. But it’s really fluid. If McConnell votes to convict, that number will be much higher. But as of right now, I think it’s safe to say that there will be at least five. But that is well short of the 17 Republicans, plus all 50 Democrats, required for a conviction. I’d put it at, like, a 20 percent chance he gets convicted. Any not-guilty votes expected on the D side? Nope, they’re all unified here. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Nightly will be off Monday, Jan. 18. We’ll be back and better than ever Tuesday. Reach out at rrayasam@politico.com or on Twitter at @renurayasam.   HAPPENING THURSDAY - THE COVID-19 VACCINE ROLLOUT: What are the logistical challenges facing the coronavirus immunization campaign? Who is overseeing the process and working to overcome obstacles to ensure that vulnerable groups have access to the vaccine? Join POLITICO for a virtual discussion on the outgoing Trump administration's plan to prioritize lower-income, rural, and communities of color for vaccine distribution and what the Biden administration can do to streamline plans and fill in any gaps. REGISTER HERE.     FIRST IN NIGHTLY NEW KOCH — The powerful Koch political network, funders of the Tea Party, will “weigh heavy” the actions of members of Congress in the days leading up to and after last week’s siege of the Capitol when considering future donations, in a sign that the Republican Party’s mega-donor class is uncomfortable with the party’s recent actions, Maggie Severns writes. In a statement to POLITICO, the Koch network said it will take last week’s events seriously when deciding where to put its millions of dollars in spending next election cycle. “Lawmakers’ actions leading up to and during last week’s insurrection will weigh heavy in our evaluation of future support. And we will continue to look for ways to support those policymakers who reject the politics of division and work together to move our country forward,” said Emily Seidel, CEO of Americans for Prosperity, the main Koch super PAC. Seidel’s statement follows months of the network working to operate more independently of the Republican Party, as billionaire Charles Koch has become increasingly dissatisfied with the tactics and policies of Trump. Numerous corporate PACs began suspending their donations to Republicans who challenged President-elect Joe Biden’s victory last week. Many of those businesses were acting in response to pressure from clients and customers. The Koch action suggests that mega-donors — a small class of brand-name billionaires who give from tens to hundreds of millions of dollars each election cycle — also feel that their reputations are on the line if they back lawmakers who supported Trump’s claims of election fraud. METRO DESK SECURITY HIGH THROUGH D.C. — More than 20,000 members of the National Guard could be stationed throughout Washington after federal officials authorized a 5,000 member increase, the city’s police chief said today. And the threats considered by officials include IEDs, with Guard units being told to prepare for the possibility that improvised explosive devices will be used by individuals plotting to attack the Capitol in the days surrounding the inauguration, according to two Guardsmen briefed this week. National Guardsmen sit in the U.S. Capitol Visitors Center. | Stephen Voss for POLITICO SEVEN DAYS. ONE HUGE CHALLENGE — Impeachment. Inauguration. The transfer of power. The next seven days will be critical, and intelligence officials are already warning of possible “armed protests“ across the country. Garrett Graff joins the latest POLITICO Dispatch and explains how the security failures during last week’s insurrection raise questions about how prepared the country is for more threats. Listen to the latest POLITICO Dispatch podcast TRANSITION 2020 ‘CALAMITY AT THE CAPITOL’ — Trump issued a last-ditch appeal to nonviolence in a video statement this evening , just after the House voted on impeachment. In a video posted to the White House Twitter account, Trump called on his supporters not to engage in violent demonstrations that federal law enforcement warns might be brewing in state capitals and Washington. BIDEN TO HILL: PICK UP THE PACE — President-elect Joe Biden’s transition team today made a public plea for swift hearings and confirmations for his national security picks , saying such action is critical in light of ongoing threats of violence around the inauguration next week. Lawmakers were briefed privately this week on new security threats, as House Democrats were advised of violent plots against members of Congress. Biden will be getting briefed daily to make sure that the “transition unfolds smoothly,” the statement from Biden's team said, as well as “engaging with the current administration to gain as much information as possible on the threat picture.” ACTING TO FIND ACTINGS — Biden’s transition team is working with its agency review staff and Obama administration alumni to pinpoint federal officials who could be elevated to key administration positions until the president-elect’s nominees are confirmed. Biden is unlikely to have critical Cabinet secretaries or other senior officials in place by the time he’s sworn in on Jan. 20. So, as a workaround, the president is trying to “identify people of integrity; people who can be solid leaders” who could lead federal agencies between the time Biden is sworn in and Cabinet nominees are confirmed, transition spokesperson T.J. Ducklo said. And they’ve not ruled out keeping on professionals brought in by Trump, Ducklo acknowledged. The intent, Ducklo said, is to “have as many people as possible on Day One so we can minimize any roadblocks that might happen because we’re waiting on permanent confirmation of our Cabinet secretaries.” ASK THE AUDIENCE Nightly asks you: What are you most hopeful about heading into 2021? Send us your answers through our form, and we’ll use select responses later this week.   KEEP UP WITH THE FIRST 100 DAYS OF THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION WITH TRANSITION PLAYBOOK: It was a dark week in American history, and a new administration will have to pick up the pieces. Transition Playbook brings you inside the last days of this crucial transfer of power, tracking the latest from President-elect Biden and his growing administration. Written for political insiders, this scoop-filled newsletter breaks big news and analyzes the appointments, people, and the emerging power centers of the new administration. Track the transition and the first 100 days of the incoming Biden administration. Subscribe today.     THE GLOBAL FIGHT SOME LIGHTER NON-IMPEACHMENT NEWS — The EU’s food safety agency said today that certain dried mealworms are safe for humans to eat, in the first assessment of its kind on insect-based foods under the bloc’s new novel food laws. The thumbs-up from the European Food and Safety Authority now opens the door for dried mealworms to be approved for sale in European supermarkets as snacks or a powdered ingredient for things like pasta, pending official authorization from national EU representatives. It also offers the makers of other bug-based foods hope that their products too will be accepted. “This first EFSA risk assessment of an insect as novel food can pave the way for the first EU-wide approval,” said Ermolaos Ververis, a scientific officer in EFSA’s nutritional unit. Specialist websites say mealworms, which ultimately grow up to be beetles, taste “a lot like peanuts” and can be salted, dipped in chocolate, sprinkled on salads or added to soups. NIGHTLY NUMBER 10 The number of House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump. They were: New York’s John Katko, Illinois’ Adam Kinzinger, Wyoming’s Liz Cheney, Michigan’s Fred Upton and Peter Meijer, Washington state’s Jaime Herrera Beutler and Dan Newhouse, South Carolina’s Tom Rice, Ohio’s Anthony Gonzalez and California’s David Valadao. PARTING WORDS DON’T MOCK THE RIOTERS — The portrayal of the mob as composed of an easily ridiculed underclass isn’t the right take. Based on the early arrests and news reports from the riot, the Capitol insurrectionists represent a bigger slice of white America than just the low-class knuckle-draggers who rolled in from the sticks on Trump’s command, Jack Shafer writes. Looking down your noise at the proles might feel good, but it obscures the wide-ranging appeal the mob enjoys in America, it underestimates the mob’s true strength, and it slows our understanding of the mob’s motivation and masks the great difficulty we will have in nullifying their violent brand of politics. Yes, there was plenty of class resentment at play at the Capitol and lots of overt racism, but we can’t assume that this was just a revolution by the powerless. Take, for example, Bradley Ruskelas, a tech CEO in suburban Chicago who faces charges of illegally entering the Capitol “with the intent of and impeding government business” or others arrested on similar charges; retired Air Force officer Larry Rendall Brock Jr; Republican state legislator Derrick Evans (who live-streamed his storming of the Capitol Building); Aaron Mostofsky, the son of a Brooklyn Supreme Court judge; Olympic gold-medalist Klete Keller; and former Midland, Texas, mayoral candidate Jenny Cudd. There are no easy ways to quell this national rebellion, a rebellion that appears to be gaining velocity, but the first step has got to be organizing a political taxonomy that doesn’t marginalize them as aliens. The point here isn’t to sympathize with the rioters, or even seek to “understand” them, but to see them as they are and to prepare ourselves for future confrontations. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam Chris Suellentrop @suellentrop Tyler Weyant @tweyant Myah Ward @myahward   FOLLOW US

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