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UNDER CONSTRUCTION - MOVED TO MIDDLEBORO REVIEW AND SO ON https://middlebororeviewandsoon.blogspot.com/
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182. Closing the Book on OT2024As the October 2025 Term officially begins, it's worth taking a moment to highlight the record-setting—and revealing—final statistics for how the justices handled emergency applications during OT2024.
Welcome back to “One First,” a (more-than-)weekly newsletter that aims to make the U.S. Supreme Court more accessible to lawyers and non-lawyers alike. I’m grateful to all of you for your continued support, and I hope that you’ll consider sharing some of what we’re doing with your networks. Every Monday morning, I’ll be offering an update on goings-on at the Court (“On the Docket”); a longer introduction to some feature of the Court’s history, current issues, or key players (“The One First ‘Long Read’”); and some Court-related trivia. If you’re not already a subscriber, I hope you’ll consider becoming one—and upgrading to a paid subscription if your circumstances permit: Even relatively casual Court-watchers know the significance of the First Monday in October: Today marks the formal (statutory) beginning of the Supreme Court’s new term—officially, the “October 2025 Term,” or “OT2025.” I’ve written before about both the history of “First Monday” and why, especially given the pace of emergency docket rulings across recent summers, it makes increasingly little sense to “close the book” on the previous term when the justices rise for the summer recess in June—as opposed to today. Rather than rehash those analyses, I thought I’d just make good on that second point about when the previous term really “ends”—and use the occasion of the official end of OT2024 to report and analyze the final statistics for how the Court handled emergency applications over the last 364 days. In a nutshell, the numbers are eye-opening. There were 140 rulings by the full Court on emergency applications (compared to a total of 55 signed opinions in cases argued on the merits docket).¹ The Court granted emergency relief 31 times. And 46 of those 140 rulings included at least one public dissent, including 19 orders from which all three Democratic appointees dissented (16 in which they were the only public dissenters); and seven that split the Court 5-4. Obviously, Trump cases were responsible for much of this data—but not for all of it. In today’s “Long Read,” I’ll go into more detail about just how unprecedented these numbers truly are. But the topline is and ought to be wholly undeniable: both quantitatively and qualitatively, the [whatever-the-heck-we’re-calling-it] docket is crowding out the merits docket as a source of the Court’s work—and is increasingly the most important thing the justices are dealing with on a daily basis. Whatever one thinks of the results the Court is reaching in these cases, that is a stunning transformation in the business of the Supreme Court—and not, in my view, either a healthy or a sustainable one. But first, the news from a very busy last week of OT2024. On the DocketI’m going to try something new—breaking the “On the Docket” section into subcategories for (1) the merits docket; (2) the emergency docket; (3) the week ahead; and (4) “miscellaneous.” The Merits DocketLast week brought two sets of orders out of the justices’ “Long Conference” (which took place last Monday): housekeeping orders on Tuesday for cases already set for argument; and five new grants of certiorari (adding cases to the OT2025 merits docket) on Friday—the biggest of which is, almost certainly, a Second Amendment case out of Hawaii. Five grants may seem like a lot for a single set of orders, but it’s actually remarkably low for the Long Conference (last year, for comparison, the Court added 13 total cases to its docket after the Long Conference). It’s possible that more grants from the Long Conference are coming (either later today or later this week), but it’s also possible that the justices are indulging the possibility that they’ll need to save some room on the OT2025 merits docket for late-breaking (Trump-related) cases. The Emergency DocketThe Court once again made a bunch of headlines on emergency applications—with one significant ruling per day from Tuesday to Friday, beginning with Tuesday’s denial of a stay of execution (over no public dissents) to Florida death-row inmate Victor Jones, who was executed later that afternoon. Wednesday’s headline was the Court’s punt on the Trump administration’s application in the Lisa Cook case—deferring for a January 2026 argument the question of whether Cook can continue to serve on the Federal Reserve Board while she challenges President Trump’s (transparently pretextual) attempt to fire her “for cause.” Because Chief Justice Roberts declined to issue an “administrative” stay, Cook will remain on the Board at least until the Court rules on the application—so Wednesday’s ruling is a short-term victory for her. But this will be the fifth time the Court has held oral argument on an application since 2022 (and since 1971); in each of the previous four cases, the Court eventually sided with the applicant (most recently in the birthright citizenship cases earlier this year). We’ll see if that pattern holds, here.² On Thursday, Justice Alito entered an administrative stay in an international custody dispute—in which the father of a Venezuelan asylum applicant (who is currently living in Houston with her mother) is seeking the child’s return to Venezuela (even though he currently resides in Spain). The district court had rejected the father’s request, but a divided panel of the Fifth Circuit granted it—and then refused to stay its mandate pending an appeal, opening the door to the possibility that the child (and her mother) would be removed to Venezuela while their appeal is pending. Justice Alito has now temporarily paused things while the full Court considers whether to issue a stay pending appeal—and has ordered the father to respond by 4 p.m. (ET) on Thursday, October 16.³ And speaking of Venezuela, on Friday, the full Court granted the Trump administration’s new application in the back-and-forth dispute over Secretary Noem’s efforts to “revoke” Temporary Protected Status for Venezuelan migrants in the United States. (More on the first round of litigation here.) Although the district court and the Ninth Circuit had both concluded that circumstances had changed since the Supreme Court stayed an earlier ruling on the same issue back in May, a majority of the Court (apparently) disagreed. Friday’s order was, as usual, light on analysis; it provided only that “Although the posture of the case has changed, the parties’ legal arguments and relative harms generally have not. The same result that we reached in May is appropriate here.” Alas, the Court’s May order didn’t actually analyze those “legal arguments and relative harms” (there was no explanation whatsoever). But this is where we are with precedent on the emergency docket. The three Democratic appointees all dissented from the ruling in Noem v. National TPS Alliance. Justice Jackson’s dissenting opinion is especially sharp in its critique of the majority—noting that “We once again use our equitable power (but not our opinion-writing capacity) to allow this Administration to disrupt as many lives as possible, as quickly as possible.” Justice Jackson has come in for a lot of (to my mind, unfair) criticism from the Court’s defenders for her rhetoric in these cases; as I’m planning to explain in a future issue, the substance of the charge here (and in virtually all of her dissents in these cases) continues to be spot-on. Even if you accept the (debatable) proposition that the executive branch suffers irreparable harm when any of its initiatives are blocked (even actions that are seemingly in defiance of the relevant statutes), the notion that it suffers more harm than tens (if not hundreds) of thousands of Venezuelan migrants who are now subject to the specter of immediate arrest, detention, and removal from the country is just not persuasive. The Week AheadTurning to this week, we should receive the full Order List out of the Long Conference at 9:30 ET this morning. This is usually the biggest and most significant overall set of orders the Court hands down all year—including hundreds of denials of certiorari; a handful of summary dispositions in pending cases; and a bunch of separate opinions respecting those first two categories. If any of them are especially newsworthy, I’ll try to flag them on Bluesky. At 10:00 (ET), the justices will take the bench for the first time since June—and Chief Justice Roberts will formally open the October 2025 Term. Then, we’ll have the first arguments of the term—starting with a criminal procedure case on direct appeal from Texas state courts (the Court went the entire October 2024 Term without hearing a single direct appeal in a state criminal case). The Court has six arguments scheduled in all this week—the headline of which is almost certainly Tuesday’s argument in Chiles v. Salazar, on whether Colorado’s ban on “conversion therapy” violates the First Amendment. As busy as the Court will be on the merits docket, the emergency docket isn’t showing any signs of slowing down even as the Court’s “regular” workload is ramping up. Besides the now-deferred application in Cook, the justices still have one application pending from the Trump administration (about whether to put back into effect a State Department policy requiring new U.S. passports to reflect the biological sex at birth of their holders). In non-Trump applications of note, we have:
Suffice it to say, OT2025 is going to start much the way OT2024 ended—with the Court just as busy (if not busier) with emergency applications as it is with its “regular” workload. MiscellaneousFinally, I thought I’d flag two potentially useful media resources and two upcoming events. On the resources front, my friends at CNN have produced a (to my mind, very helpful) video explainer on how the Court handles emergency applications (and how it differs from the merits docket). You can watch that here. And I was a guest on the National Constitution Center’s “We the People” podcast this week, looking ahead to the upcoming term. You can listen to that here, or wherever you get your favorite podcasts. And speaking of SCOTUS and events, I’ll be at the University of Chicago’s Institute of Politics tomorrow night speaking about the Court as part of a panel on “D.C. Drama.” And Wednesday at lunchtime, I’ll be joining the Nashville Lawyers Chapter of the American Constitution Society for their annual Supreme Court preview (details here). The One First “Long Read”: |
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In an extraordinary late-night rebuke of executive overreach, U.S. District Judge Karin Immergut, a Trump appointee, issued her second temporary restraining order in as many days blocking Donald Trump from sending National Guard troops into Oregon. This time, the order came after the administration attempted to sidestep her Saturday ruling by deploying California’s National Guard instead. Moments ago, California Attorney General Rob Bonta joined Legal AF host Michael Popok to break down the legal and constitutional stakes of what has become a dramatic showdown between the federal government and the states.
“This was an Oregon case until about half a day ago,” Bonta explained. “Then it became a California and Oregon case” as Trump ordered roughly 300 federalized California National Guard personnel “moved a thousand miles up north to Portland, where a judge had already said yesterday that the conditions on the ground absolutely do not justify the federalization of National Guard.”
Judge Immergut’s original 31-page order on Saturday held that Trump lacked the legal authority under federal statutes to commandeer Oregon’s National Guard. She wrote that the case “involves the intersection of three of the most fundamental principles in our constitutional democracy” — the relationship between the federal government and the states, the limits on using armed forces for domestic law enforcement, and the role of the judiciary in ensuring the executive branch abides by the law. Quoting James Madison, she warned that “a standing military force with an overgrown executive” is “not long… safe companions to liberty” and concluded, “This is a nation of constitutional law, not martial law.”
Yet within hours, the Trump administration had begun sending California’s Guard into Oregon. According to Bonta, Judge Immergut was “completely miffed” by the attempt to circumvent her ruling. “Her first set of questions of the federal government were, how does this not violate my order from yesterday? And I think she’s right,” he told Popok. “This sort of super-technical approach… was untethered from reality.”
Bonta also revealed that just minutes before Sunday’s emergency hearing, his office learned through a memorandum from Trump’s Defense Secretary that the Texas National Guard had also been federalized, with hundreds slated for deployment to Portland and Chicago. “It is clear that it’s a sort of whac-a-mole approach… you stop the Oregon National Guard from being federalized, [they] bring up the California National Guard. You stop the California National Guard, [they] bring in the Texas National Guard,” Bonta said. “So we asked the judge to issue a broad order… that applies to every National Guard in every state and the District of Columbia.” Immergut granted that request from the bench.
Bonta praised the teamwork between California and Oregon’s legal teams, working overtime on a Sunday to protect constitutional limits. “Democracy needs to be protected every day. And the rule of law does as well,” he said. He also emphasized the real-world stakes: “The conditions have not changed in 24 hours. National Guard being deployed in Oregon was unlawful yesterday. It’s unlawful today as well. It doesn’t matter where the National Guard comes from — Oregon’s, California’s, or Texas’.”
Popok noted the irony of Trump’s attacks on a judge he himself appointed. Immergut, a former federal prosecutor and U.S. Attorney with deep experience in Portland, has been unflinching in her rulings. “She knows what’s at stake. She knows what the issues are here,” Popok said. “She’s following the facts, following the law. Let the chips fall where they may.”
For now, Bonta expects the federal government to comply with the second restraining order, which bars the California Guard from performing any official duties in Portland. But the legal battle is far from over. Appeals have already been filed, and Trump’s pattern of open defiance suggests further clashes ahead. Still, for the moment, the courts have drawn a line. As Bonta summed it up, “The Trump-appointed judge nailed it and appropriately stopped Trump from this unlawful conduct.”
In a moment when the separation of powers and state sovereignty are being tested, Judge Immergut’s orders reaffirm a basic democratic principle: the president cannot simply deploy troops into American cities at will. This is, as she wrote, “a nation of constitutional law, not martial law.”
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