The Downballot is taking off today for Yom Kippur, so the next Morning Digest will hit your inboxes on Monday. But! Be on the lookout for a new special report tomorrow morning detailing exactly which states could enact new congressional maps in time for the 2026 midterms. The piece will only be available to paid subscribers, so if you’re able, we encourage you to upgrade your subscription today. It’s just $7 a month or a steeply discounted $60 a year, which works out to just $5 a month. Morning Digest: Madison Cawthorn is back—as a Florida ManThe scandal-drenched loudmouth has ditched North Carolina for a Sunshine State comeback
Leading OffFL-19Former North Carolina Rep. Madison Cawthorn announced Wednesday that he would wage a campaign to return to Congress—albeit in a different state than the one he briefly represented. “Florida is the heart of the MAGA movement leading America, and leading the world, toward freedom,” Cawthorn says in his launch video. The former congressman, whose video features a 2020 tweet in which Charlie Kirk wrote that “America needs more fighters like Madison Cawthorn,” tells the audience, “This state believes in you. And it needs you to fight for this country.” Cawthorn joins a busy Aug. 18 primary for the 19th District—a contest that features an unusual lineup of defeated politicians from other states. The winner should have no trouble winning the general election for this safely red seat in the Fort Myers and Cape Coral area, which Rep. Byron Donalds is leaving behind to run for governor.
Both Donalds and Cawthorn were first elected to Congress in 2020 and soon achieved prominence—albeit in very different ways. Donalds quickly established himself as a high-profile Donald Trump ally, and Trump’s endorsement has been key to making him the favorite to lead the nation’s third-largest state. Cawthorn, by contrast, became a sensation when, at the age of 24, he emerged seemingly out of nowhere to decisively defeat a Trump-backed primary opponent in western North Carolina. (He turned 25, which is the minimum age to serve in the House, before Election Day.) The new congressman then went further than most of his colleagues in embracing Trump’s election lies, saying in 2021 that “if our election systems continue to be rigged and continue to be stolen, then it’s going to lead to one place—and it’s bloodshed.” But while Trump was a fan of this “very special guy,” as he put it, most of his colleagues weren’t so fond of him. Cawthorn, among other things, drew widespread derision in 2022 with his evidence-free insinuations claiming that an unidentified colleague had invited him to an “orgy” and that he’d witnessed prominent conservatives doing “a key bump of cocaine.” He narrowly lost renomination later that year to state Sen. Chuck Edwards after a bruising campaign during which the challenger and his allies highlighted the one-term congressman’s various scandals, embarrassing videos, unhinged rhetoric, and run-ins with the law. Trump himself acknowledged during the campaign that Cawthorn had made “foolish mistakes” even as he unsuccessfully urged Republicans to “give Madison a second chance.” Cawthorn actually has a history of district-hopping, though his last attempted jump only wound up undermining him. When he was seeking reelection in 2022, he alienated local voters by announcing a campaign for an even more conservative district in the Charlotte area that he had almost no links to. A new court-drawn map soon foreclosed that possibility, but Cawthorn’s enemies were happy to leverage his apparent distaste for western North Carolina against him. Soon after his loss, Cawthorn proved his detractors right, and then some: He decided he was done with any part of the Tarheel State and bought a $1 million house in Cape Coral after his defeat in the primary. Cawthorn began talking about running for Congress in his new home state last year, and Donalds—who would not have to serve with him again—is open to giving him another chance. “He was 25 years old when he came to Congress,” Donalds told Axios last month of his one-time colleague. “Everybody has an opportunity to grow and mature.” The congressman made those comments shortly before news broke that Cawthorn had just been arrested for failing to appear in court for allegedly driving without a valid driver’s license. Cawthorn, though, isn’t the only scandal-ridden former congressman from elsewhere who sees southwest Florida as his springboard back to office. Chris Collins, a New Yorker who resigned in 2019 after pleading guilty to his part in an insider-trading scheme, launched his own comeback effort in June. But Collins, 75, recently suggested that he wasn’t coming out of involuntary retirement purely because of his desire to serve his new community. “If I then retire as the congressman for Florida 19 in Marco Island and Naples, I think I would be welcomed then to serve on some of the, you know, the not-for-profit boards and hospital boards and being invited to the, you know, fundraisers and galas and be welcomed,” Collins told a podcast in August. “And that would be a great retirement. Because right now it’s kind of lonely,” he continued. “You know, I’m not invited to any of those things because all I am is, you know, the former congressman who resigned in disgrace, convicted felon.” The GOP field additionally includes former Illinois state Sen. Jim Oberweis, a dairy magnate whose many failed campaigns back in the Land of Lincoln long ago earned him the nickname “Milk Dud.” And yet another failed congressional candidate from Illinois, former Trump administration official Catalina Lauf, has also filed paperwork. Businessman Jim Schwartzel, whose company owns several conservative radio and TV stations, is running as well. David Nir here, publisher of The Downballot! We love bringing you the Morning Digest every day, because shining a spotlight on overlooked elections is as important to us as it is to you. But it takes a lot of hard work—and resources. If you’re able to support The Downballot by upgrading to a paid subscription, we’d be incredibly grateful. Redistricting RoundupNV RedistrictingA group of Nevada activists who’d been seeking to place a measure on the ballot that would establish an independent redistricting commission have withdrawn their proposal after a prominent Democratic law firm filed a suit challenging the plan. The Downballot PodcastHow Rob Sand plans to win Iowa’s governorshipRob Sand may be the last remaining Democrat holding statewide office in Iowa, but as he wages a bid for governor, he lays out a compelling case for why the state is purpler than you might think on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast. Sand tells us about the massive lottery scandal he busted, which thrust him onto the national radar; how he hung on to win reelection as auditor by just 3,000 votes in 2022, even as all his fellow Democrats lost; and why Iowans are especially fed up after a decade of one-party rule, giving him an opening next year. He also shares his love of cartograms—those maps that depict population rather than area. After all, land doesn’t vote! The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript! 3Q FundraisingThe third fundraising quarter of the year, covering the period from July 1 through Sept. 30, has come to an end, meaning federal candidates will have to file campaign finance reports with the FEC by Oct. 15. But as per usual, campaigns with strong hauls are releasing numbers early, which we’ve gathered below. (Note that candidates for state and local office often file disclosures on different timetables.)
SenateAL-SenAttorney General Steve Marshall has earned the backing of the Alabama Farmers Federation, which has long been an influential organization in state politics, in next year’s Republican primary for the state’s open Senate seat. GovernorsMA-GovBusinessman Michael Minogue, who is a major Republican donor, announced Wednesday that he would challenge Democratic Gov. Maura Healey. Minogue, who hosted a fundraiser for Donald Trump last year headlined by JD Vance, joins former state cabinet official Mike Kennealy and venture capitalist Brian Shortsleeve in next September’s GOP primary. The eventual Republican nominee, however, will have a tough task convincing enough voters in Democratic-friendly Massachusetts to dump Healey. OK-GovFormer state cabinet member Chip Keating on Wednesday joined the Republican primary for the office that his father, former Oklahoma Gov. Frank Keating, held more than two decades ago. The younger Keating previously served as secretary of public safety under Gov. Kevin Stitt, a fellow Republican who cannot seek a third term next year. Keating, though, did not mention his old boss in his kickoff statement, instead pledging to “follow the Trump playbook to keep Oklahoma safe.” The June 16 GOP primary lineup already featured Attorney General Gentner Drummond, former state House Speaker Charles McCall, and former state Sens. Mike Mazzei and Jake Merrick. Candidates need to win a majority of the vote to avert a runoff on Aug. 25. Whoever earns the nomination will likely face House Minority Leader Cyndi Munson, who has no serious opposition in the Democratic primary. PA-GovQuinnipiac University: Josh Shapiro (D-inc): 55, Treasurer Stacy Garrity (R): 39; Shapiro (D-inc): 56, state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R): 39. (Garrity is running; Mastriano is still considering.) HouseAZ-01Three Arizona Republicans tell Axios’ Jeremy Duda that they’re interested in running to succeed Rep. David Schweikert, who is giving up the swingy 1st District to run for governor: state Rep. Joseph Chaplik, state party chair Gina Swoboda, and former state Sen. Michelle Ugenti-Rita. A friend of former Arizona State University football coach Todd Graham also informs Duda that he’s thinking about waging a campaign here. Graham, who later had a turbulent tenure at the University of Hawaii after leaving ASU in 2017, is now a member of the coaching staff at Texas Christian University. AZ-07House Republicans are refusing to swear in Democrat Adelita Grijalva, whose signature would be the last one needed to force a vote on releasing files related to the investigation of Jeffrey Epstein, until next week at the soonest. The delay means that Grijalva, who won a special election last month for the Arizona district previously held by her late father, would have to wait at least two weeks to be seated. Following three prior special elections this year, the winners were all sworn in the following day. MN-02State Rep. Kaela Berg announced Wednesday that she was joining the race to succeed Rep. Angie Craig, a fellow Democrat who is leaving Minnesota’s 2nd District to run for the Senate. Berg, who works as a flight attendant for the Delta subsidiary Endeavor Air (the Minnesota legislature is a part-time body), entered the contest with an endorsement from EMILYs List. The Democratic primary also includes state Sen. Matt Klein and former state Sen. Matt Little. The main Republicans are Marine veteran Tyler Kistner, who lost competitive races to Craig in 2020 and 2022, and state Sen. Eric Pratt. Kamala Harris carried this suburban Twin Cities constituency 52-46. MO-02Army veteran Fred Wellman, who hosts a podcast on the MeidasTouch network and was once executive director of the Lincoln Project, launched a bid against Republican Rep. Ann Wagner on Wednesday. Wellman is the first notable Democrat to run for Missouri’s 2nd District, a conservative district in the St. Louis suburbs and exurbs that Republicans just made redder via their new gerrymander. Under the old map, the district voted for Donald Trump by a 53-45 margin, but he would have carried the new version by a 55-43 spread. MO-04Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas is hinting he might run for the revamped version of Missouri’s 4th Congressional District, a conservative district that would become somewhat less so under the GOP’s new gerrymander. “Regarding a candidacy, I will do whatever I can to ensure all Kansas Citians, including in a newly formed district, have a choice at the ballot box that represents Kansas City viewpoints and values,” Lucas told the Kansas City Star in a statement. “I do not believe that candidate is the current U.S. Congressman for the Fourth District.” The city Lucas leads had long been contained entirely within the 5th District, which has been represented by Democrat Emanuel Cleaver since 2005. But under the new map, Kansas City would be divided between three districts, including a slice in the 4th, where Republican Mark Alford is serving his second term. However, it would still remain very red turf. Under the old lines, the 4th voted for Donald Trump by a giant 71-28 margin; the new iteration would have backed him by a smaller but still intimidating 60-39 spread. PA-03Physician Ala Stanford announced a bid for Pennsylvania’s safely blue 3rd District on Wednesday with an endorsement from retiring Rep. Dwight Evans, whom she’s running to succeed. “I graduated from Penn State, entered med school, and became the first Black woman pediatric surgeon fully trained in the U.S.,” the candidate says in her launch video. Stanford, who founded the nonprofit Black Doctors COVID-19 Consortium in 2020, went on to serve in the Department of Health and Human Services under Joe Biden. Stanford joins a May 19 Democratic primary field that includes state Sen. Sharif Street, who recently stepped down as state party chair, as well as state Reps. Morgan Cephas and Chris Rabb. Also in the running are computer scientist Karl Morris and physician Dave Oxman. Attorneys GeneralVA-AGThe Richmond Times-Dispatch reports that Democrat Jay Jones was charged with reckless driving in 2022 after a state trooper clocked his speed at 116 miles per hour. The story says that Jones’ recompense included 1,000 hours of community service, half of which he wound up devoting to his own political action committee. “Several years ago, I made the mistake of speeding, for which I am regretful,” Jones said in a statement to the paper. “I accepted responsibility for my actions, paid the fine, and fulfilled my responsibility to the court, which was accepted by the New Kent County Commonwealth’s Attorney’s Office and the judge.” Jones is challenging Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares in the Nov. 4 general election. JudgesWI Supreme CourtAppeals Court Judge Maria Lazar kicked off a bid for the Wisconsin Supreme Court on Wednesday, making her the first—and probably the last—conservative candidate seeking to defend the seat held by retiring Justice Rebecca Bradley. She’ll likely square off next year against Judge Chris Taylor, a fellow member of the Wisconsin Court of Appeals who emerged as the consensus liberal candidate almost immediately after launching her campaign in May. Taylor began running several months before Bradley announced her retirement in late August. If no other contenders emerge, Taylor and Lazar will meet one another on April 7. Should anyone else get in, though, a nonpartisan top-two primary would first take place on Feb. 17, though Taylor and Lazar would be the heavy favorites to advance regardless. Liberals are eager to expand their 4-3 majority by flipping Bradley’s seat, while conservatives are hoping to avoid falling further into the hole. If Lazar prevails, the soonest conservatives could win back a majority would be 2028, while a Taylor victory would push that out until 2030. Mayors & County LeadersMiami, FL MayorMiami-Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava on Wednesday endorsed Eileen Higgins, a fellow Democrat who serves on the county commission, in the Nov. 4 race to lead the city of Miami. Higgins and former Miami City Commissioner Ken Russell are the only serious Democrats competing in the 13-person nonpartisan contest to succeed incumbent Francis Suarez, a Republican who cannot seek reelection because of term limits. A runoff would take place on Dec. 9 if no one wins a majority of the vote. Prosecutors & SheriffsHennepin County, MN AttorneyAttorney Matt Pelikan, who is a longtime presence in Minnesota Democratic politics, has joined the race to succeed retiring incumbent Mary Moriarty as the top prosecutor for Hennepin County. Pelikan launched his campaign by arguing that Moriarty, who is a prominent criminal justice reformer, has been a “disaster” when it comes to advancing change. The new candidate told the Minnesota Star Tribune that Moriarty has failed because of her “unjustified attacks on law enforcement” and “real lapses in judgment on specific prosecutions.” Pelikan ran for attorney general in 2018 but placed a distant fourth in the primary against Keith Ellison. Ellison, who is serving his second term, has issued a dual endorsement to Ramsey County prosecutor Hao Nguyen and state Rep. Cedrick Frazier, the two other notable candidates campaigning for the post. All contenders will face off on a single nonpartisan ballot next August, with the top two vote-getters advancing to a fall general election. The next attorney for Hennepin County, a solidly blue community that includes Minneapolis, is likely to be a Democrat. |
