Thursday, October 20, 2022

POLITICO NIGHTLY: The other issue driving the midterms

 

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BY DAVID SIDERS

With help from Lisa Kashinsky

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul speaks.

Recent polls show New York Gov. Kathy Hochul's lead over challenger Rep. Lee Zeldin has narrowed. The Republican has made the issue of crime a centerpiece of his campaign. | Hans Pennink/AP Photo

CRIME AND PUNISHMENT — You know Democrats are in trouble when polls start tightening in New York.

And they are, according to two polls out this week that suggest Gov. Kathy Hochul, the Democratic incumbent, may have a closer race than expected.

Democrats aren’t truly sweating yet in New York, where Hochul is still the clear favorite. But what is concerning for Democrats nationally is what appears to be one reason the polls are tightening. In a Quinnipiac University poll of the New York contest, 28 percent of likely voters listed crime as the most urgent issue facing the state — more than mentioned inflation or abortion.

The crime issue isn’t just resonating in New York. While the overarching narrative of the midterm election has been one of economic concerns versus abortion rights, Democrats are suddenly taking a beating on crime across the map — including in competitive states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada.

It was following a barrage of advertising on crime in Wisconsin that Ron Johnson, the Republican U.S. senator from Wisconsin, overtook his Democratic challenger, Mandela Barnes, in public polls . Republican Mehmet Oz has narrowed Democrat John Fetterman’s lead in the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania, where Republicans are also hammering Fetterman as soft on crime. It’s the same story in Oregon’s open race for governor, where crime has become a central issue in the campaign — and where Democrats are so worried about losing in the reliably blue state that President Joe Biden campaigned there over the weekend.

Nationally, the economy and inflation remain top concerns for voters, according to a POLITICO-Morning Consult poll released today . But nearly two-thirds cite crime as a “major issue,” according to the poll. That’s more than mention abortion, gun policy or immigration.

For Democrats, it all adds up to more bad news as the election nears. What looked for much of the summer like a post-Roe v. Wade bump for Democrats appears to be fading somewhat.

In part, that may simply be a reflection of the calendar. One reason Democrats appeared to be in better position in many races earlier this year is that some Republicans and independents were still “on the fence” — not wanting to vote Democratic, but not falling in with the hard-line Republicans running in some states, either, said Molly Murphy, a Democratic pollster who is president of Impact Research, the firm that was Biden’s lead pollster in the 2020 election.

“A lot of those Republicans are coming home,” she said.

What recent movement in races like New York suggests is that Republicans’ heavy advertising on crime — which includes spots pounding Democratic candidates over calls to defund the police or bail reform efforts — may be helping to ensure it.

“It is the issue,” said Hank Sheinkopf, a longtime Democratic strategist based in New York.

Crime, he said, “is part of a cluster of issues called ‘chaos and disorder,’” including inflation, the supply chain and broader economic uncertainty.

“For the people who are the most alienated from this political system,” he said, “they’re less concerned about abortion than chaos and things being out of control.”

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at dsiders@politico.com or on Twitter at @davidsiders .

ELECTION FORECAST UPDATE — With three weeks left until Election Day, Senior Campaigns and Elections Editor Steven Shepard has tweaked our 2022 Election Forecast once again. POLITICO still rates the House “Likely Republican,” with 10 individual races shifting in favor of Republicans. Here’s what you need to know .

 

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DISPATCH FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

Former Cranston, R.I., Mayor Allan Fung greets supporters at his campaign kickoff event.

Former Cranston, R.I., Mayor Allan Fung greets supporters at his campaign kickoff event, Tuesday, April 26, 2022, at the Varnum Memorial Armory in East Greenwich, R.I. | David Goldman/AP Photo

Surprisingly, one of the most competitive House races in the country is taking place in deep-blue Rhode Island, where veteran Democratic Rep. Jim Langevin’s retirement has opened the door for a potential Republican pick-up. POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky was in Providence last weekend where she got a glimpse into why.

CRACKS IN THE BLUE WALL — New England has become a wasteland for Republican candidates in recent years. Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont — there isn’t a single GOP member of the House who hails from the region. Sen. Susan Collins of Maine is the lone Republican senator.

But all that could change this year. A handful of moderate Republican House candidates are running competitive races across the region, none of them better positioned than Allan Fung.

Fung, the former mayor of Cranston, Rhode Island, is leading Democratic state treasurer Seth Magaziner in public polls and forcing Democrats to pour money into a race for a seat they’ve held for three decades. In an otherwise deep-blue state, Fung is capitalizing on the name recognition and goodwill he’s engendered during his 12 years as mayor of the state’s second-largest city and two failed runs for governor, not to mention a midterm environment that’s been rough on many Democratic candidates.

Fung could hardly walk five feet at an Armenian food festival in Providence’s Federal Hill on a sunny and unseasonably warm Saturday afternoon without stopping to shake hands with potential voters — in between their bites of seasoned rice and chicken kebabs — or being stopped for photos, or a back slap, or a quick word about the issues. Fung spent nearly an hour working the picnic tables and beverage lines in the bustling parking lot of Sts. Vartanantz Armenian Apostolic Church, asking people for their support and lending an ear to their concerns from education to the economy.

Even when he tried to step away for an interview, Fung was waylaid by a man who ran up to shake his hand and say: “I’m a lifelong Democrat and you’re getting our vote. A bunch of my friends, we’re all gonna vote for you.”

Fung believes those crossover votes will make the difference in what remains a close race.

“That last gentleman, lifelong Democrat, a lot of them, our message is resonating with them because it’s talking about their priorities, about this economy,” Fung said.

Still, Fung must deal with the problem of the national party brand in a state where former President Donald Trump won just 39 percent of the vote in 2020. Fung has said he would vote for Trump ally and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy as speaker of a Republican-led House — and that alone is giving Magaziner plenty of campaign fodder for the election homestretch .

POLL WATCHER

65.5 percent

The share of gun owners nationwide who are concerned about the increase in gun-related homicides and gun crimes in cities, according to a new survey from 97Percent , a bipartisan group of gun owners and non-gun owners that conducts research on gun safety policies.

WHAT'D I MISS?

— Trump signed court document that knowingly included false voter fraud stats, judge says: Trump signed legal documents describing evidence of election fraud that he knew were false, a federal judge indicated today. U.S. District Court Judge David Carter wrote in an 18-page opinion that emails from attorney John Eastman, an architect of Trump’s last-ditch effort to subvert the 2020 election, needed to be turned over to the Jan. 6 select committee. Those emails, Carter wrote, “show that President Trump knew that the specific numbers of voter fraud were wrong but continued to tout those numbers, both in court and to the public.” The emails are among the files that Eastman had been declining to turn over to the committee, citing attorney-client privilege.

— Biden pressures oil companies on gas prices: Biden today urged American oil companies to increase production and refining to bring down the price of gas for consumers . “Invest in America for the American people. Bring down the price you charge at the pump to reflect what you pay for the product,” he said during a speech at the White House. Biden made the plea to the oil industry while also announcing the planned release of 15 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in December, a move aimed at bringing gas prices down. With the price of a barrel of oil having fallen about 30 percent since the spring, Biden said the price of gas at the pump should reflect that drop.

President Joe Biden speaks.

— Trump deposed in defamation suit filed by E. Jean Carroll: The former president answered questions under oath today in a lawsuit filed by E. Jean Carroll, a magazine columnist who says Trump raped her in the mid-1990s in a department store dressing room. The deposition gave Carroll’s lawyers a chance to interrogate Trump about the assault allegations as well as statements he made in 2019 when she told her story publicly for the first time. His legal team worked for years to delay his deposition in the lawsuit, which was filed when he was still president. A federal judge last week rejected Trump’s request for another delay.

— Fetterman is well enough to serve, his doctor says: Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nominee John Fetterman “is recovering well from his stroke and his health has continued to improve,” according to a letter from Fetterman’s primary care doctor released by his campaign today. Fetterman “has no work restrictions and can work full duty in public office,” Dr. Clifford Chen wrote in the medical report. GOP Senate nominee Dr. Mehmet Oz has repeatedly suggested Fetterman’s recovery leaves him unfit to serve. Fetterman’s health has sparked contentious debate after the candidate suffered a stroke in May, leaving him with lingering auditory processing issues. As a result, Fetterman requested to use a closed-caption monitor in his single debate with Oz on Oct. 25.

AROUND THE WORLD

AN ‘ENTIRE CITY’ DEPORTED — Russian President Vladimir Putin today imposed martial law in the four regions of Ukraine illegally annexed by the Kremlin’s forces, against the backdrop of mass deportations of Ukrainians to Russia and as Moscow lays the ground for further losses of territory, write Wilhelmine Preussen and Zoya Sheftalovich .

Kremlin-backed authorities in the Ukrainian city of Kherson are planning to “relocate” about 50,000 to 60,000 people to Russian territory, the Moscow-installed regional governor Vladimir Saldo said in a television interview Tuesday.

Ivan Fedorov, the Ukrainian mayor of Melitopol in the Zaporizhzhia region, called this “a new manifestation of genocide in the occupied territories,” adding that Russia is preparing a “forcible deportation of an entire city” while claiming “to protect people from hostilities” in an attempt to create an outpost of the “Russian world” in the south of Ukraine.

Similar mass forced deportations have been reported in the other areas of Ukraine under Russian control, with the Kremlin-installed authorities seemingly focused particularly on displacing Ukrainian children. Under international humanitarian law, forced mass deportation of people during an armed conflict is considered a war crime.

 

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NIGHTLY NUMBER

$2.2 million

The amount raised by Trump’s primary political group, Save America Joint Fundraising Committee , in the two days following the FBI’s Aug. 8 search of Mar-a-Lago. The group raised just over $24 million in the third quarter of this year, up from $17 million in the previous quarter, and nearly 20 percent of that haul came from the week after the search.

RADAR SWEEP

TOLKIEN TROLLS — A certain type of fan has long complained when people of color are cast in on-screen adaptations and reboots of beloved classics — they can wrap their heads around mermaids, but a Black mermaid is a bridge too far. Now, fanboys have descended on the new Amazon Prime series “The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power.” Read Sakeina Syed’s deep dive for The Walrus on how these online attacks have become much more sophisticated in recent years.

PARTING IMAGE

People sit in the Kyiv subway, using it as a bomb shelter, in Kyiv, Ukraine.

People sit in the Kyiv subway, using it as a bomb shelter, in Kyiv, Ukraine, today. | Emilio Morenatti/AP Photo

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RSN: FOCUS: Susan B. Glasser | Donald Trump, January 6th, and the Elusive Search for Accountability

 

 

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Before the gavel banged down on the committee's final hearing, the panel voted unanimously to subpoena Donald Trump to testify about his actions. (photo: Alex Wong/Getty)
FOCUS: Susan B. Glasser | Donald Trump, January 6th, and the Elusive Search for Accountability
Susan B. Glasser, The New Yorker
Glasser writes: "The House-select-committee hearings are over, but will the former President ever be held responsible for the tragedy?"


The House-select-committee hearings are over, but will the former President ever be held responsible for the tragedy?

The House select committee investigating January 6th has now rested its public case against Donald Trump. Over nine hearings and more than twenty hours of testimony, culminating in a two-and-a-half-hour session on Thursday, the panel showed that Trump knew he lost the 2020 election; knew that the mob he summoned was violent, armed, and determined to block Congress from carrying out its constitutional responsibility; knew that the Vice-President’s life was in danger; and knew that, in urging his followers to march on the Capitol, he was encouraging them to illegally attack the building. Once the assault began, Trump did nothing except watch the spectacle, approvingly, on television. The select committee’s presentation of these facts was specific, damning, and even occasionally riveting.

In one memorable early hearing, Trump’s Attorney General, Bill Barr, testified that Trump’s baseless claims of election fraud were “bullshit,” adding that he had told the former President so to his face. When Barr publicly said as much to the Associated Press, it so enraged Trump that he threw a ketchup-smeared plate against the wall in his private White House dining room—an indelible image of the petulant President, disclosed by the former Trump aide Cassidy Hutchinson during her blockbuster July testimony. Like others in Trump’s White House, Hutchinson heard Trump and his top aides acknowledge his defeat yet continue to lie about it to the public. “No, Cass, he knows it’s over,” Hutchinson quoted the White House chief of staff Mark Meadows as saying to her, in a clip from Hutchinson’s video deposition shown at Thursday’s hearing. “But we’re gonna keep trying.”

Thursday’s hearing added a few more details to the select committee’s trove of incriminating evidence about January 6th: memorable footage of the Democratic congressional leaders Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, evacuated to a secure location that afternoon, frantically trying to get Trump’s executive branch to do something to stop the violence; a January 4th intelligence warning to the Justice Department and the F.B.I. about extremists talking of “invading the Capitol building”; and new documentation showing that Trump’s decision to claim victory on Election Night was “premeditated.” As Representative Zoe Lofgren said, it was a “plan concocted in advance to convince his supporters that he won.” Trump himself—his wild plotting and his willful indifference to its consequences—was at the center of the events, as he was in each of the committee’s hearings.

Inevitably, the panel also showcased an array of unsavory characters and dispiriting subplots that swirled around Trump’s post-election conspiracy. The smarmy, nihilistic Roger Stone, who featured prominently in Thursday’s session, was shown in a Danish filmmaker’s video footage from before the election: “Fuck the voting,” Stone laughed, as he walked through an airport, wearing a red, white, and blue “Trump 2020” face mask. “Let’s get right to the violence.” Other sessions spotlighted the machinations of Trump’s heavy-drinking personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani, Trump’s failed coup at the Justice Department, and the deceitful advice of the constitutional-law professor John Eastman to have Vice-President Mike Pence singlehandedly reject the Electoral College results. Eastman knew the plan that he pushed on Trump was legally suspect and likely to be unanimously rejected by the Supreme Court, but he pushed it anyway—and then tried to get himself a preëmptive Presidential pardon.

But none of it would have mattered had Trump not been in the White House, urging them all on, demanding something, anything, that would somehow undo the election loss he was desperate to overturn. “The central cause of January 6 was one man, Donald Trump,” Representative Liz Cheney, the apostate Republican who emerged as Trump’s chief tormentor on the committee, said. “None of this would have happened without him. He was personally and substantially involved in all of it.” Cheney lost her seat in a Republican primary this summer because she refused to bow down to the man whom one of her colleagues called the G.O.P.’s “Orange Jesus.” These hearings have been her vindication and her revenge.

Cheney was clear in her remarks on Thursday that she believed Trump deserved not just public excoriation but also criminal sanction. “Our nation cannot only punish the foot soldiers who stormed our Capitol,” Cheney said, and yet so far that is all that has happened. The Justice Department has charged some nine hundred people with participating in the January 6th insurrection—but not a single person close to Trump, who summoned the mob that rampaged in his name and on his behalf, has been indicted. “Without accountability, it all becomes normal, and it will recur,” she warned.

Before the gavel banged down late Thursday afternoon, the panel voted unanimously to approve a motion by Cheney to subpoena Trump to testify about his actions. Members were liberal in their use of the A-word to describe the vote. “This is a question about accountability to the American people,” the committee’s chairman, Representative Bennie Thompson, of Mississippi, said. “He must be accountable. He is required to answer for his actions.”

Yet accountability—at least the kind that comes in a court of law and ends in a prison term—was never the House select committee’s to confer. It made for a compelling headline, but Thursday’s vote was pure symbolism from a committee that may well be out of business in just a few weeks, if the voters, as expected, give control of the House to the Republicans. It’s impossible to imagine Trump willingly testifying before this or any future Congress about anything—at least, not without years of legal wrangling. The real decision about whether and how to hold Trump responsible for the tragedy of January 6th rests, as it always has, with the Justice Department and its enigmatic Attorney General, Merrick Garland. And we will not know the answer to that question anytime soon.

So did any of the committee’s work matter? When the January 6th hearings began, on June 9th, Trump’s average approval rating in the polls was 41.9 per cent, and his average disapproval rating was 53.5 per cent, according to FiveThirtyEight. As the hearings ended, Trump’s average approval rating stood at 40.4 per cent. All that damning evidence, and the polls were basically unchanged. The straight line in the former President’s approval rating is the literal representation of the crisis in American democracy. There is an essentially immovable forty per cent of the country whose loyalty to Donald Trump cannot be shaken by anything.

I pointed out these numbers to Representative Jamie Raskin, a member of the select committee, over the weekend, when my colleagues and I interviewed him during The New Yorker Festival. He insisted that driving down Trump’s poll numbers was not the point. “The point,” he said, “is to deliver the truth to the people and to the Congress because, like Madison said, those who mean to be their own governors must arm themselves with the power that knowledge gives. And we think that we have armed the public with the power to make some serious decisions going forward.”

Since the committee’s formation, Raskin and the other committee members have advanced various arguments for what the panel hoped to achieve. Establishing Trump’s complicity in the storming of the Capitol was always an important goal, and the final report that the panel intends to release before the current Congress expires will no doubt be the most definitive summation yet of this American tragedy. Even by that measure, however, a full accounting for history still awaits. Key witnesses such as Mike Pence, Trump’s final chief of staff, Mark Meadows, and House Minority Leader, Kevin McCarthy, refused to testify; more than thirty witnesses, according to Cheney, invoked their Fifth Amendment privilege against self-incrimination and declined to answer questions. Steve Bannon will be sentenced later this month, after being convicted of contempt of Congress, but he still has not been forced to speak under oath about his dealings with Trump and other White House officials in the days leading up to January 6th. And then, of course, there is Trump himself, newly subpoenaed but not any likelier to testify.

And yet Trump’s essential culpability for January 6th was never really the question. That was more than evident on the day itself. Accountability was always the problem. Will the former President, with his Houdini-like powers of escape, ever face it?


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