Friday, June 19, 2020

RSN: Charles Pierce | John Bolton Is a Sunshine Patriot, but What He's Written Is Important Evidence






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19 June 20

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Reader Supported News
18 June 20
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Charles Pierce | John Bolton Is a Sunshine Patriot, but What He's Written Is Important Evidence
John Bolton. (photo: Logan Cyrus/Getty)
Charles Pierce, Esquire
Pierce writes: "The Department of Justice announced on Tuesday that it intends to shovel taxpayer dollar bills into the furnace of the president*'s imbecilic rage in a futile attempt to kill the publication of John Bolton's upcoming book. Predictably, the book has found its way into the hands of Peter Baker at The New York Times."
READ MORE


Joe Biden. (photo: Getty)
Joe Biden. (photo: Getty)

Biden Vows to Make DACA Permanent on 'Day One' if Elected President
Tal Axelrod, The Hill
Axelrod writes: "Former Vice President Joe Biden vowed to make the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program permanent on 'day one' if he's elected president."
READ MORE


Colin Kaepernick, during a private NFL workout at a Georgia high school last November. (photo: Carmen Mandato/Getty)
Colin Kaepernick, during a private NFL workout at a Georgia high school last November. (photo: Carmen Mandato/Getty)

Colin Kaepernick Is Joining Medium's Board of Directors and Will Write Stories About Racial Justice
Gwen Aviles, NBC News
Aviles writes: "Former San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick will join Medium's board of directors, the company announced Thursday."
READ MORE



John Bolton listens as U.S. president Donald Trump holds a cabinet meeting. (photo: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)
John Bolton listens as U.S. president Donald Trump holds a cabinet meeting. (photo: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)


John Bolton Shows That All the President's Men Are Cowards
Michael Tomasky, The Daily Beast
Tomasky writes: "The book is 592 pages, and it's already #1 on Amazon even before it's out next week. Trump sued to block publication, with Bill Barr inevitably doing his hopeless dirty work there. He will lose. The book will be published. And the news is already here."
READ MORE


Angela Davis. (photo: Vanessa Wruble)
Angela Davis. (photo: Vanessa Wruble)

Angela Davis on Abolition, Calls to Defund Police, Toppled Racist Statues and Voting in 2020 Election
Democracy Now!
Excerpt: "This is an extraordinary moment. I have never experienced anything like the conditions we are currently experiencing, the conjuncture created by the COVID-19 pandemic and the recognition of the systemic racism that has been rendered visible under these conditions because of the disproportionate deaths in Black and Latinx communities. And this is a moment I don't know whether I ever expected to experience." 








Soldiers from the Indian Border Security Force on Wednesday guarding a highway leading toward Leh, near the border with China. (photo: Tauseef Mustafa/Getty)
Soldiers from the Indian Border Security Force on Wednesday guarding a highway leading toward Leh, near the border with China. (photo: Tauseef Mustafa/Getty)

India-China Border Tension: A New Flashpoint in South Asia
Saif Khalid, Al Jazeera
Khalid writes: "At least 20 Indian soldiers have been killed after a violent confrontation with Chinese troops in the Himalayan region of Ladakh in the deadliest clash in nearly 50 years, with experts warning of a new geopolitical flashpoint in South Asia."
READ MORE


Amazon river dolphin. (photo: Kevin Schafer)
Amazon river dolphin. (photo: Kevin Schafer)

Amazon River Dolphin Risks Extinction if Bolsonaro Administration Doesn't Renew Brazil Moratorium
Peter Yeung, Mongabay
Yeung writes: "Occupying the Amazon and Orinoco river basins, which cut across the northern half of the South American continent, these freshwater mammals were historically abundant, and are protected today by Brazilian law; it is illegal to kill them. But for years, poachers have targeted the dolphins, using their fatty blubber as bait to catch a carnivorous catfish called piracatinga, which is drawn to the scent of rotting flesh."


 pair of pink Amazon river dolphins emerges for just a moment, arcing above the chocolate brown waters inside the Mamirauá Institute for Sustainable Development, a research facility at the tropical heart of the Brazilian Amazon. Powerful jets of water spray out of their blowholes as these freshwater mammals take in air before submerging.
Moments later the duo reappear on the other side of the Japurá River, playfully dovetailing, and skirting the edge of the várzea rainforest — a seasonal floodplain where, in this part of Amazonia, river levels can rise and fall by up to 12 meters (39 feet) a year, at times opening up vast swathes of rainforest to these graceful swimmers.
“They are very special creatures,” says Natanael dos Santos, a guide working at the Mamirauá Institute. “They are extremely intelligent and can display a complex set of behaviors, even like humans.” These skilled, sharp-toothed hunters, often reaching more than eight feet in length, are well adapted to shifting river levels. During highwater periods they penetrate deep into the rainforest using echolocation to search murky pools amid submerged tree roots for prey including dozens of fish species, turtles and freshwater crabs.
The Amazon river dolphin (Inia geoffrensis) or boto, already classified as “endangered” since 2018 by the IUCN, the International Union for Conservation of Nature, is now coming under even more serious threat across Brazil and Latin America. An estimated population in the low tens of thousands is thought to exist in the wild, though counting the animals accurately in the Amazon’s murky streams is challenging. Like other river dolphins, the boto communicates with variable whistle tones.
Occupying the Amazon and Orinoco river basins, which cut across the northern half of the South American continent, these freshwater mammals were historically abundant, and are protected today by Brazilian law; it is illegal to kill them. But for years, poachers have targeted the dolphins, using their fatty blubber as bait to catch a carnivorous catfish called piracatinga, which is drawn to the scent of rotting flesh.
In January 2015, under the government of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, that chronic criminal behavior led to the introduction of a five-year moratorium on catching piracatinga in order to better protect the dolphins.
But that moratorium ended earlier this year and has yet to be renewed by the Jair Bolsonaro administration, which is undermining many other of Brazil’s environmental laws. Experts warn that the failure to extend it could lead to the extinction of the largest freshwater dolphin in the world — a fate that befell China’s Yangtze river dolphin (Lipotes vexillifer) in 2007, following years of overfishing, pollution and habitat degradation.
“I believe [the lack of a moratorium] could make them extinct,” warns Dr. Vera da Silva, a researcher for INPA, the Amazon research institute, who has been studying Amazonia’s dolphins for more than 30 years. “Not all the objectives of the moratorium were fulfilled, therefore the moratorium must be extended,” she explained.
Research by da Silva, published in 2017, found that a female dolphin’s pregnancy typically lasts 13 months. After that, the mother feeds a calf underwater for two years. Due to that long gestation and nursing period, females only reproduce every three to five years.
“They are a very slow reproductive species,” da Silva notes. “If the removal is higher [than the reproduction and rearing rate] the species does not have the capacity to replace itself.”
Separate findings by da Silva published in 2018 revealed that the Amazon river dolphin population in Brazil is halving every decade.
Prosecutors in Amazonas state, where the Mamirauá Institute is based, originally asked for the moratorium which started in 2015, warning that as many as 2,500 dolphins were being killed illegally each year for bait.
Da Silva reports that in November 2019 she met with officials from the Secretariat of Production of the State of Amazonas (SEPROR), to discuss the extension of the moratorium in Amazonas. But nothing has happened since, and the peak fishing season is due to begin in July.
“There is a huge amount of ignorance,” she warns. “We need better information on fishing practices. There aren’t strong enough laws to make fishermen report what they catch.”
Marcelo Oliveira, a conservation specialist at World Wildlife Fund Brazil (WWF), agrees with that analysis. “Fishing is a threat but we don’t have enough data,” he says. “If we don’t know where the river dolphins are, we can’t say how bad [the threat] is. But it’s expensive to do expeditions to monitor population trends.”
WWF has been innovating — utilizing drones to accomplish the difficult job of making improved population estimates, flying 2.5 kilometer strips of river to record footage. “It’s much cheaper and more efficient,” than doing boat observations, he says. The NGO is currently partnering with British universities to analyze the drone findings using artificial intelligence.
But even with better data recording practices and an improved data set, Oliveira says that the river dolphins are still at great risk from a broad range of threats. “Bycatch sees so many dolphins caught in fishing nets, gold mining in the region has led to mercury poisoning in the water, and the construction of hydroelectric dams has reduced their habitat and genetic pool,” he explains.
Oliveira believes that for now the focus of dolphin conservation should be on improved community engagement across the Amazon basin, with strong outreach to fishermen, in a region whose burgeoning population has now topped 34 million.
“Extending the moratorium could be a way to protect the dolphins, alternative baits could be a way, but we need to have a balance between development and biodiversity conservation,” he says. “It’s not a fight between the two. If communities are involved in conservation, the dolphins will be safer.”
Fernando Trujillo, scientific director of the Fundacion Omacha, a Colombia-based environmental NGO specializing in protecting river dolphins set up in 1993, says that conservation must also be addressed on an international level.
“The end of [Brazil’s] moratorium will send out the message that fishing is okay — even in other countries across Latin America,” he says. “We need to work together with all the countries in terms of policy, agreeing on the same criteria and same legislation, especially when it comes to monitoring the borders.”
Trujillo, who is also co-chair of the International Whaling Commission’s small cetaceans committee, is calling for the Brazil moratorium to be extended another five years. “For so many reasons, it’s a species we need to conserve and save,” he says. “Alive dolphins can produce more money than dead ones for local communities through ecotourism.”
Indigenous beliefs hold that the river dolphin — which transforms from grey to pink as it ages — is a magical creature. Males and females are both said to have the ability to morph at will into either a handsome man, or beautiful woman respectively, in order to seduce villagers in the dark of night. But scientists see the mammals as top predators of the Amazon aquatic ecosystem — considering them the jaguars of the rivers.
A spokesperson for the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply said it had not yet extended the moratorium because “it is necessary to evaluate its effects on the recovery of populations of porpoises and caimans in order to verify the effectiveness of this fisheries management measure.” When asked by Mongabay to comment, the ministry did not provide a timeframe for this evaluation period.
There is another myth about the Amazon river dolphin. It is said that to kill one is bad luck. Not knowing what negative aquatic impacts might radiate from the extinction of this top predator, authorities may want to heed this legend as they try to decide whether or not to renew Brazil’s moratorium.













RSN: Norman Solomon | California "Berning" for Ro Khanna to Chair the State's Delegation to Democratic National Convention




Reader Supported News
18 June 20

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18 June 20
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RSN: Norman Solomon | California "Berning" for Ro Khanna to Chair the State's Delegation to Democratic National Convention
Rep. Ro Khanna. (photo: Getty)
Norman Solomon, Reader Supported News
Solomon writes: "The Democratic Party is at a crossroads in California, where Bernie Sanders defeated Joe Biden in the presidential primary three months ago, winning more than half of the state's delegates to the national convention. In recent days, over 110 Sanders delegates - just elected in 'virtual caucuses' across the state - have signed a statement calling for Congressman Ro Khanna to be the chair of California's delegation to the Democratic National Convention in mid-August."

Fairness, logic, and even party unity all argue for Khanna to chair the delegation.
Noting that “Sanders received appreciably more votes in the California primary than any other candidate,” the statement points out that “Khanna has been a national champion on issues supported by California Democrats – health care for all, national budget priorities based on human needs and opposing Trump on huge increases in military spending and endless wars, criminal justice reform, and a path to citizenship for immigrants.”
Released by Our Revolution, Progressive Democrats of America, and RootsAction.org (where I’m national director), the statement has been endorsed by the California Nurses Association as well as by Amar Shergill, the chair of the state Democratic Party’s large Progressive Caucus. Four-fifths of the state’s Bernie delegates elected in congressional districts have already signed it.
“Having our state delegation chaired by one of the Bernie 2020 campaign's national co-chairs would send an important message of inclusion to disaffected voters across the country,” the statement says. “As state delegation chair, Congressman Khanna would be well-positioned to serve as a voice for authentic unity behind a ticket headed by Biden for the imperative of defeating Trump.”
But whether the powers that be in the Democratic Party are truly interested in such “authentic unity” will be put to a test at a June 28 statewide delegates meeting, where California’s delegation chair is scheduled to be chosen. (I’ll be part of the meeting as a Bernie delegate.) Rules for that meeting – or even information on who will run it – have not yet been disclosed.
A common steamroller technique at such meetings is for an omnibus package with myriad provisions – including decisions made in advance by those in power – to be presented for a single up-or-down vote. Instead, what’s needed is a truly democratic election, with nominations for delegation chair and a ballot enabling each delegate to cast a vote for one of the candidates. (What a concept.)
Sanders defeated Biden by a margin of 8 percent in the California primary. But hidebound tradition as well as raw political power are arrayed against the Bernie delegates pushing for Khanna to chair the delegation.
Traditionally, the Democratic governor would be the chair of the state’s delegation to the national convention, as was the case four years ago with Gov. Jerry Brown. And the current Democrat in the governor’s office, Gavin Newsom, is unlikely to favor giving up this chance to enhance his national stature and aid his evident presidential ambitions.
For progressives, however, much more is at stake than political prestige.
Every indication is that only a state delegation chair will be allowed to introduce proposals or amendments to the entire convention. Simply having the option of doing so, on issues like Medicare for All and a Green New Deal, could give the state party chair leverage for programs championed by the Bernie 2020 campaign. That’s exactly the kind of leverage that party power brokers want to prevent from falling into the hands of genuine progressives.

Norman Solomon is co-founder and national director of RootsAction.org. He is a Bernie Sanders delegate from California to the 2020 Democratic National Convention. Solomon is the author of a dozen books, including War Made Easy: How Presidents and Pundits Keep Spinning Us to Death.
Reader Supported News is the Publication of Origin for this work. Permission to republish is freely granted with credit and a link back to Reader Supported News.














POLITICO NIGHTLY: Don’t blame testing for the Sun Belt spikes










POLITICO Nightly: Coronavirus Special Edition
Presented by
With help from Myah Ward
FAILING GRADES — Echoing arguments President Donald Trump has made in recent speeches and interviews, and advanced by Vice President Mike Pence in a Wall Street Journal op-ed this week, Tea Party-affiliated doctors held a call with reporters today to argue that rising infections in Texas, Arizona, Florida, Alabama and other states that moved early to lift stay-at-home orders are no cause for alarm.
“Most of the case numbers are because of increased testing and increased access to testing,” Simone Gold, a California-based emergency physician, said. “It’s not a public health catastrophe.”
Alabama physician David Williams agreed, pointing to testing criteria that’s been broadened to include people with no symptoms or known exposure.
“We have universities sending their football teams and companies sending their entire workforce to get tested because of the irrational fear of this virus,” he said. “Of course you’re going to find some positives.”
That’s not the whole story. Testing rates have massively improved since the shortages early in the pandemic, and the recent increase has contributed in part to the rise in detected cases. But the argument advanced by conservative advocacy groups and the White House, that the recent spikes in coronavirus cases in more than a dozen states are solely a product of increased testing, doesn’t explain the Sun Belt spikes. Here’s why:
Case counts are rising more quickly than the testing increase in many states. Arizona has seen cases spike 122 percent over the last two weeks, while hitting only 87 percent of its testing target. And Alabama is seeing a 93 percent increase in cases even as it reaches only 73 percent of its testing goals.
The positivity rate — the percentage of people testing positive — is also on the rise. The World Health Organization says governments will know they’re doing enough to root out the virus in their communities when they achieve a sustained rate of 5 percent or less of tests coming back positive. In many states, that percentage is far higher and continues to go up, indicating the virus is spreading faster than testing.
“You have states like Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona, where you see cases rising, and a high rate of Covid positivity — over 7 percent,” Marta Wosińska, the deputy director of the Duke-Margolis Center for Health Policy, told reporters on a call today. “In Arizona, it’s 16 percent and increasing. So it’s not just increased testing we’re seeing.”
Hospitalizations are also up, which means more people are sick. Officials are sounding the alarm about health system capacity — particularly ICU beds — as both cases and hospitalizations hit record rates in some states, increases that cannot be explained by a rise in testing alone.
If more testing means more cases, why are some states seeing fewer cases as they test at record rates? “New York and New Jersey and Rhode Island are all testing well above their targets, yet they’re seeing fewer cases and their ICU availability is looking better than before,” Wosińska said.
Welcome to POLITICO Nightly: Coronavirus Special Edition. Scratching my head trying to figure out what to do with the roselle hibiscus pods and red noodle beans we got in our CSA haul this week. Reach out with cooking and coronavirus tips: rrayasam@politico.com or on Twitter at @renurayasam.

A message from PhRMA:
America’s biopharmaceutical companies are sharing manufacturing capabilities with each other so that once a treatment or vaccine is ready, they can get it to millions of people fast. And there’s no slowing down. America’s biopharmaceutical companies will continue working day and night until they beat coronavirus. More.

FIRST IN NIGHTLY
LATINO CASES ON THE RISE — Coronavirus infections and hospitalizations have rapidly increased among Latinos in the last two months, outpacing other racial and ethnic minorities, national political reporter Laura Barrón-López writes. Latinos also make up a disproportionate share of the cases in almost every state, more than four times higher than their share of the population in some states.
But while the number and severity of cases among Latino patients has worsened, health experts say that the state-by-state mortality rate among Latinos lags noticeably behind their infection rates. That’s been seen in several states at this stage of the pandemic — higher caseloads but falling death rates. To date, African Americans have had the highest death rates.
Public health officials have offered two potential reasons for the gap: There is a lag in the reporting of deaths — it can take from weeks to as long as a month for death rates to catch up to infections. And the younger age of Latino patients, on average, could make them more likely to survive the disease.
Without targeted contract tracing, language resources, enforcement of protective equipment at essential jobs — and an encouragement of those with uncertain legal status to seek help — the disease is likely to become more lethal as states begin to reopen. “As many industries keep reopening we have more people who are going to be exposed because of their jobs,” said Carlos Rodriguez-Diaz, associate professor at George Washington University School of Public Health.
Latinos between 35 and 44 have a coronavirus mortality rate nearly eight times higher than white people in that age group. Black people in the same age range have a mortality rate nine times higher than white people. Latinos between 25 and 34 and between 45 and 54 have a coronavirus mortality rate at least five times higher than white people, according to new Harvard analysis of National Center for Health Statistics data on reported coronavirus deaths from February to May 20.
Employment, housing, access to care and high rates of uninsured are all thought to contribute to the rates of transmission and mortality.

HAPPENING MONDAY 9 a.m. EDT - "INSIDE THE RECOVERY," PART IV: CONGRESS DURING COVID-19: Join POLITICO Playbook co-authors Anna Palmer and Jake Sherman for a special virtual program featuring congressional reporters Heather Caygle and Burgess Everett. Get a behind-the-scenes look at what it is like to report from inside the Capitol during a global pandemic, what legislation on police reform is gaining traction, and what to expect in the next coronavirus aid package. REGISTER HERE


Workers prepare the Eiffel Tower reopening in Paris.
Workers in Paris prepare the Eiffel Tower for reopening on June 25. | Getty Images
AROUND THE NATION
DESERT STORM — Senior national correspondent Bryan Bender emails us from Scottsdale, Ariz.:
I live in one of the biggest hotspots in the country. And this time it isn’t because of the triple-digit temperatures that blanket much of Arizona each summer.
The spread of Covid-19 has been off the charts here for weeks now. Today was another record day with 2,519 new cases, while daily hospitalizations saw the highest jump on Wednesday to 1,667, compared to 1,582 the day before. Hospital capacity is nearly at a breaking point: 85 percent of inpatient beds and 84 percent of ICU beds are now in use.
A scramble is on to turn the tide of the virus without going back into lockdown. But there are serious doubts the new steps announced this week are binding enough to get the job done.
Republican Gov. Doug Ducey announced a series of enhanced guidelines Wednesday, including requiring businesses to institute social distancing measures and granting municipalities the authority — if they choose — to make citizens wear masks in public places.
Yet that falls short of an appeal to Ducey from nearly 1,000 medical providers to “issue a statewide mandate requiring universal masking in public for those 2 years old and above.”
What happened in a state that had relatively few cases a month ago?
Swapna Reddy, a professor at Arizona State University’s College of Health Solutions, who has been advising local authorities on the public health crisis, said the state gave up the fight too quickly.
“We were a little bit later than some other states in initiating the lockdown, but we did initiate a statewide lockdown,” Reddy said. “It appears like we did a pretty good job of flattening the curve and really controlling the spread here.”
But the reopening lacked one major element that other states, including nearby California and Colorado, banked on: a phased approach. “It felt in many cases and to many people like a bit of a light switch here,” Reddy said.
And there were few requirements — just recommendations.
“I've certainly been to plenty of businesses that have taken the recommendations very seriously, and they don't deviate from it,” Reddy said. “And I've been to places where it's more or less like those recommendations don't exist. That's the danger of having a recommendation and not a requirement. You have this kind of hodgepodge of compliance.”
Will the new steps be enough to turn things around?
“None of us want to lock down again,” Reddy says. “Our only chance is to change course really, really quickly and for people to comply and for us to enforce. And a changing mindset is really, really important at an individual and community level.”
Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego told me today that the city council will vote Friday on whether to mandate face masks for residents going to essential businesses and public spaces. “This is the needed step to allow cities to protect residents as Covid numbers rapidly rise in Arizona,” she said.
Another test comes next week, when Trump is scheduled to attend Tuesday’s Students for Trump Convention at Phoenix’s Dream City Church.
“City officials have been in touch with staff from the president’s team,” Gallego said, “and will continue to be, to update them on city policy.”
Cover me — California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced today he will require masks in most public settings statewide in an effort to slow the spread of Covid-19 as new cases rise by thousands daily in the state, California reporters Carla Marinucci and Victoria Colliver write. The California Department of Public Health released updated guidance today that requires Californians to wear a face covering in most indoor settings, as well as outdoors when social distancing isn't possible. Any workers who engage with the public will be required to wear a mask. So will riders of public transit and anyone visiting a health-related office. California is the 11th state and the first on the West Coast to mandate masks beyond essential workers, according to the National Governors Association.

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THE GLOBAL FIGHT
EUROPE’S UNFORTUNATE TITLE — While Covid deaths in the U.S. have continued to rise, when looked at on a per capita basis, many European countries have far higher numbers, with the U.S. ranking below nations like Belgium, Spain and the U.K.
Covid-19 deaths per 1 million population
ON THE ECONOMY
THE JOBLESS HOTSPOTS — Hilton announced earlier this week that it was laying off 22 percent of its workforce. BP said it would lay off 10,000 workers by the end of the year because of the pandemic-related oil crash. Airlines, prohibited by federal aid rules from laying off workers until Sept. 30, are furloughing workers for now, but could cut those jobs come fall. State and local governments and universities facing budget crunches are also shedding workers.
Your host Slack chatted today with POLITICO’s Megan Cassella , who has been covering the employment crisis, about when the jobs will come back, whether filing for unemployment has become easier and how the pandemic’s economic hit could linger long after the health crisis subsides. This conversation has been edited.
Can you help us make sense of the jumble of employment numbers? The May jobs report showed that companies were rehiring some workers, but today we learned that another 1.5 million people filed for unemployment last week.
The continued high level of new unemployment claims — this is the 13th straight week of claims in the millions — is concerning, given that every state has now begun to reopen its economy. That means the new unemployment claims are less likely temporary furloughs due to a shutdown, and more likely to be permanent layoffs due to a company downsizing or closing its doors for good. Even though the overall number of unemployed Americans went down in May, the number unemployed due to permanent job loss went up. The bigger picture is that the lower jobless rate and the boost in consumer spending both suggest the U.S. economy has likely already bottomed out, and it's now on its way back up from the bottom. But it also has a long way to go before things start to get back to normal. And there's no guarantee that these upward trends will continue in a steady line.
Have states improved their unemployment claims process?
It has gotten better. But many Americans still face significant delays, not only in applying but also receiving their checks. Yesterday, hundreds of people lined up outside Kentucky's state capitol building for hours in an attempt to talk to a real person about their stalled unemployment claims. Several states have also reported seeing some fraudulent claims filed, and as they work to root that out, it's led to some laid-off workers seeing payments delayed.
Which states have had the most job losses? In some states this may feel like more of an economic crisis than a health crisis.
In April, the last time we had comprehensive state-level data, political battleground states of the industrial Midwest were among the hardest hit — Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania.
Nevada and Hawaii have also been really brutally impacted because so much of their workforce works in travel and tourism. For the most recent week of initial claims, California and Massachusetts saw the biggest jumps in people applying for benefits, while Florida and Texas had the biggest decreases. We'll have a clearer picture when state-level data for May comes out on Friday morning.
What are some of the surprising long-term effects of stubbornly high unemployment?
The Brookings Institution put out a paper this week on what it calls the “baby bust”: Researchers are predicting 300,000 to 500,000 fewer births in the U.S. next year in large part because of the economic instability the pandemic has caused.
Are these jobs coming back?
As we adjust to life with social distancing measures, almost certainly some jobs will never come back. If a large number of jobs stay remote, that could reduce the need for office support staff or even lead to closures of some lunch spots, etc., near office hubs.
At the same time, new jobs will be created — we may soon need thousands of contract tracers to help track the spread of the disease.
If we see a second wave of the virus leading to more shutdowns, that of course will lead to another spike in jobless claims. One thing nearly all economists agree on is that this is a public health crisis first, and a full economic recovery is extremely unlikely as long as the coronavirus remains a threat.
FOUR SQUARE
THE ZOOM PANEL — Eugene Daniels, Tim Alberta, Alex Thompson and Laura Barrón-López discuss the disconnect between health officials and lawmakers on the pandemic, and Trump’s upcoming Tulsa rally, on the latest episode of Four Square.
Nightly video player
FROM THE HEALTH DESK
HUNTING FOR A CURE — The Trump administration is rushing the production of a coronavirus vaccine. But it probably won’t be widely available until next spring or summer — and that’s if it’s even effective. Health care reporters Sarah Owermohle and Dan Diamond discuss the hard truths about a coronavirus vaccine in the latest POLITICO Dispatch. “The timeline has been accelerated, but there’s no promise that once something gets to Phase 3, the final phase of the study, that it’s going to be a vaccine that works,” Sarah said.
Play audio
ASK THE AUDIENCE
Nightly asks you: Show us what the Summer of Covid looks like in your area. Snap a photo and send it in an email to nightly@politico.com. We’ll select a few to use in Friday’s newsletter.

JOIN NEXT WEDNESDAY 1 p.m. EDT - THE SPEED OF SCIENCE POST-COVID-19: What does the future of science in a post-Covid-19 world look like? What lessons can we learn to accelerate medical research outside of the coronavirus? How can newly developed drugs and vaccines be distributed equitably? What can we do to minimize misinformation from flawed or inaccurate scientific studies published during a public health emergency? Join Patrick Steel, CEO of POLITICO, and Alexander Hardy, CEO of Genentech, for this critical and timely discussion. REGISTER HERE.


NIGHTLY NUMBER
13
The number of University of Texas football players who have tested positive for Covid-19, according to the university. Texas started voluntary preseason workouts four days ago.
PARTING WORDS
BOOZE YOU CAN USE — Nightly’s Tyler Weyant writes:
Let’s face it: This pandemic has been draining. There are often nights when many of us sit quietly, doom scrolling through Twitter while nursing a beer or something stronger. And this makes today’s news, that an influential government panel suggested men should cut back their alcohol intake to one drink per day rather than two, all the more disheartening.
WHO has advised moderation as well, noting that excess consumption can exacerbate Covid vulnerabilities. And we’ve seen airlines take away alcohol from flights as a safety precaution. Overconsumption is certainly not something to be celebrated, and people who are fighting to maintain sobriety and recovery deserve our support. But for some of us, a “modest but meaningful increase” in the chance of an early death is a risk worth taking.
Walk through a suburban community and you may see neighbors carefully spaced and drinking gin and tonics out of Tervis tumblers. Stroll by D.C.’s Kalorama Park on a weekend afternoon and 20-somethings are mirthfully sipping from the equivalent of cocktail Capri Sun pouches. (Washington’s open container laws seem to be staying at home.)
These are not people checking dietary government websites before a get-together; they are merely attempting to retain some semblance of community and relaxation.
Yes, we need to monitor our health and make sure we aren’t overbending the elbow. But there will always be another map of coronavirus hotspots, another Facebook post from your cousin questioning the legitimacy of mask-wearing. And a good portion of us might read those and think, maybe that second beer isn’t such a bad idea. Maybe it might be nice to sit on the porch and share it with a friend. And, for your mental health’s sake, it wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world.

A message from PhRMA:
America’s biopharmaceutical companies are sharing their knowledge and resources more than ever before to speed up the development of new medicines to fight COVID-19. They’re working with doctors and hospitals on over 1,100 clinical trials.

And there’s no slowing down. America’s biopharmaceutical companies will continue working day and night until they beat coronavirus. Because science is how we get back to normal.

See how biopharmaceutical companies are working together to get people what they need during this pandemic.

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Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam

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