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Follow the Barrels: Trump, Russia, Venezuela—and the China Connection
As prices surge, Trump’s Venezuela deal remains years from delivering—and blaming Ukraine exposes how much the global economy still depends on Russian oil.
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Donald Trump just said the quiet part out loud.
He called on President Zelenskyy to stop attacking Russian refineries and diesel facilities, blaming Ukraine for contributing to the worldwide fuel shortage and higher prices.
Think about what he is saying.
Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia has spent years attacking Ukraine’s power plants, electrical grid and energy infrastructure. Ukraine is now striking the Russian refineries that supply Putin’s military and generate revenue for his war.
But Trump’s response is to tell Ukraine to stop because the world still needs Russian fuel.
Trump just admitted that Russian oil remains important to the global economy.
If Russia were truly isolated—and if its energy exports had been removed from the international market—attacks on its refineries would not have this kind of worldwide impact. Trump’s own argument acknowledges that Russian energy continues to flow through the global system.
But Ukraine is not the only reason prices are rising.
The much larger crisis is unfolding around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil has climbed above $100 a barrel as attacks threaten tankers, ports, pipelines and shipping routes across the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz remains unstable, with no guarantee that normal shipping will resume anytime soon.
Now a Saudi pipeline capable of moving approximately four million barrels of oil a day around Hormuz has been shut following a drone attack. That pipeline alone carries the equivalent of roughly 4% of the world’s oil supply. Repairs could take weeks, while available storage may keep exports moving for only several days. Oil prices rose again following the new attacks.
That is the real scale of this crisis.
This is not about one Ukrainian drone hitting one Russian refinery. It is a widening energy crisis involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Ukraine and some of the most important shipping lanes in the world.
Trump has repeatedly claimed that the Iran conflict is almost over. Now he is saying oil prices may not come down until after the midterm elections.
Why would oil prices follow an American election calendar?
Wars do not end because Election Day arrives. Pipelines do not repair themselves after the votes are counted. Tankers do not start moving because a politician promises that prices will suddenly come down.
Markets respond to supply, risk and confidence. Right now, all three are under pressure.
Trump’s answer is Venezuela.
He is promoting his new agreement as the “biggest oil deal in world history” and promising that Venezuelan oil will lower prices for Americans.
But the truth about what is happening behind that agreement—and how long it would take to deliver meaningful amounts of oil—is another story entirely...
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