POLITICO Massachusetts Playbook: Healey’s in pole position

 

View in browser   BY LISA KASHINSKY Presented by National Grid FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: NEW UMASS LOWELL POLL — State Attorney General Maura Healey holds a commanding 45-point lead over her Democratic gubernatorial rival, state Sen. Sonia Chang-Díaz, in a new primary poll. Healey garnered 62 percent support in the UMass Lowell survey of likely Democratic primary voters, compared to 17 percent support for Chang-Díaz. Another 20 percent said they were either undecided or planned to vote for another candidate. That’s a wider lead for Healey than in the last public poll of the race in January, though note that the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion survey of 800 likely Democratic primary voters also includes leaners in the results. Healey is also the Democrat most likely to win the general election, according to 62 percent of those who responded to the UMass Lowell poll conducted between April 2 and 11. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points. “Primary voters want someone they ideologically align with, but they also want to vote for a winner,” UMass Lowell pollster and Center for Public Opinion associate director John Cluverius told Playbook. “The more and more Healey looks like a frontrunner, the more and more voters who aren’t perfectly aligned with Healey, but find her acceptable, are willing to vote for her.” Chang-Díaz “gains some ground” on Healey among likely voters who are ages 18 to 44 and who are non-white, the pollsters said. Respondents also picked the first Latina and Asian American elected to the state Senate as the candidate best suited to handle race relations. But when it comes to which woman is more progressive — one of Chang-Díaz’s selling points to Democratic primary voters — likely voters thought they were about even. Cluverius said Chang-Díaz could benefit from finding “something pivotal to contrast herself with Healey.” Pinning Healey down on policy specifics remains difficult. But her broad-based campaign appears to be resonating with likely voters who see her as the stronger candidate on issues ranging from the economy to Covid-19 to policing reform and health care without reviewing a single policy plan. And as for why Healey keeps praising outgoing Gov. Charlie Baker? The GOP governor has a 78 percent favorability rating in this poll. While Healey remains dominant in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, down-ballot races are much more in flux, the UMass Lowell pollsters say. Andrea Campbell continues to lead her rivals for attorney general with 30 percent support compared to 11 percent for Shannon Liss-Riordan and 6 percent for Quentin Palfrey. More than half of those surveyed were undecided, according to results previewed for Playbook. UMass Lowell will release the full poll online at 11 a.m. GOOD TUESDAY MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS. Speaking of the governor’s race, POLITICO’s Steve Shepard is out with a new election forecast that rates the contest for the corner office as “Likely Democratic.” All of our U.S. House seats are rated “Solid Democratic” — except for Rep. Bill Keating’s MA-09, which Shepard says is “Likely Democratic.” That’s all well and good for Democrats in blue Massachusetts, but it’s not going to help their party hold onto power in Washington, where both the House and the Senate are predicted to go red. Check out the full election forecast to see which races you need to watch — and who we think will win each one. POLITICO's 2022 election rating for Massachusetts governor. | POLITICO screenshot TODAY — President Joe Biden is in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, to tout his administration’s infrastructure law. Baker and Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito highlight Tax Day at 2 p.m. at the State House. Baker participates in a Boston Globe Sustainability Week virtual fireside chat at 11 a.m. LG hopeful state Sen. Adam Hinds hosts a “Conversation on Achieving Equity in Education” at 1 p.m. on Twitter Spaces. Tips? Scoops? Email me: lkashinsky@politico.com. A message from National Grid: There Is A Better Way. National Grid is announcing our path to a fossil-free energy future. By using renewable natural gas, and green hydrogen produced from water using wind energy, we can achieve a fossil-free energy future by 2050 or earlier.   DATELINE BEACON HILL — STREAMING WARS: Governor’s Councilors Eileen Duff and Mary Hurley are calling for all future Governor’s Council meetings to be livestreamed using the same platform the House and Senate use to stream legislative sessions and hearings, after the council stopped streaming its meetings on YouTube. “As a candidate and as a member of the Governor’s Council, I have repeatedly called for a more transparent and open Council,” Duff said in a statement shared with Playbook. “What Councilor Hurley and I are advocating is for the Governor’s Council to utilize the same platforms as other Commonwealth legislative bodies as a matter of consistency, security, and economics.” The council’s move last month to stop broadcasting its meetings online has divided its members. Councilor Marilyn Devaney has been unsuccessfully trying to bring it back amid pressure from outside groups to restore the livestream and pushback from other council members who’ve cited a lack of resources to keep it going. — “Senate plan mandates coverage for heating oil spills,” by Christian M. Wade, Eagle-Tribune: “Homeowners would be required to get property insurance coverage to protect against home heating oil contamination under a new proposal that its backers say is aimed at shielding them from costly cleanups for spills. The measure, which unanimously passed the state Senate on Thursday, would require insurers to add coverage for accidental home heating oil spills.” — “Cape town leaders oppose radioactive water release in Cape Cod Bay, in letters filed at hearing,” by Sarah Carlon, Cape Cod Times: “Lawmakers, environmentalists and Cape officials are rallying behind legislation that would permanently put the plug into a plan to dump one million gallons of treated radioactive wastewater from the now-closed Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station into Cape Cod Bay. The bill was filed in response to a 2021 proposal by Holtec International— the company that bought the Plymouth plant from Entergy Corporation in 2019 to take over its decommissioning — to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to discharge the water.” — “Massachusetts RMV provides update on 2,100 drivers who were granted licenses without road tests,” by WCVB: “On Monday, the RMV told NewsCenter 5 that it conducted a total of 1,074 road tests between Feb. 14 and Feb. 25 as a result of its internal investigation into the matter. During that period, the affected customers were able to call a dedicated phone line to schedule their road test pursuant to the letter they received from the Registry. Of those who completed their road test requirement through this method, 381 people passed their exam while 693 failed.”   DON'T MISS ANYTHING FROM THE 2022 MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: POLITICO is excited to partner with the Milken Institute to produce a special edition "Global Insider" newsletter featuring exclusive coverage and insights from the 25th annual Global Conference. This year's event, May 1-4, brings together more than 3,000 of the world’s most influential leaders, including 700+ speakers representing more than 80 countries. "Celebrating the Power of Connection" is this year's theme, setting the stage to connect influencers with the resources to change the world with leading experts and thinkers whose insight and creativity can implement that change. Whether you're attending in person or following along from somewhere else in the world, keep up with this year's conference with POLITICO’s special edition “Global Insider” so you don't miss a beat. Subscribe today.     VAX-ACHUSETTS — “Harvard, Boston Children’s study casts new light on COVID-19 inflammation,” by Martin Finucane, Boston Globe: “The study, published April 6 in the journal Nature, included the surprising finding that the SARS-CoV-2 virus infects and kills certain immune system cells in the blood and lungs, the medical school and hospital said in a pair of news releases. As the cells die, they set off alarms for the immune system.” FROM THE HUB In the top left, Boston Mayor Michelle Wu is pictured with Gov. Charlie Baker and Secretary of Labor Martin Walsh. The other photos show runners in various stages of the Boston Marathon. | Top left: Winslow Townson/AP Photo; Top right: Jennifer McDermott/AP Photo; Bottom left: Charles Krupa/AP Photo; Bottom right: Mary Schwalm/AP Photo — MARATHON RUNDOWN: Tears and triumph mixed with cheers and cowbells as the Boston Marathon returned to its rightful Patriots’ Day after a three-year hiatus. Henry Richard embraced his family after finishing the race in honor of his younger brother, Martin Richard, who was killed in the 2013 marathon bombings. Adrianne Haslet, who lost a leg in the explosions, finished with Marblehead favorite and Olympian Shalane Flanagan at her side. Boston Herald reporter Rick Sobey ran all 26.2 miles and still managed to file a story about it before deadline. Some runners carried Ukrainian flags. Boston’s three mayors of 2021 — Marty Walsh, Kim Janey and Michelle Wu — snapped a selfie near the finish line. In Cambridge, MIT honored Police Officer Sean Collier nine years after he was killed in the aftermath of the Boston Marathon bombings. ICYMI: “Nearly 10 years after the Boston Marathon bombing, a survivor and her congresswoman fight for healing,” by Manya Chylinski and Rep. Ayanna Pressley, Dorchester Reporter: “[W]e must continue centering the needs of survivors of all disasters and provide them the resources and counseling they need to recover from their trauma and begin to heal. We can start by enacting the Post-Disaster Mental Health Response Act, a simple fix that will help people in their hour of need and have a lasting impact on the health of our communities. — THERE’S A NEW PLANNER IN TOWN: Boston Mayor Michelle Wu has appointed Arthur Jemison as chief of planning, a wide-ranging job that will oversee the city’s planning and development aims — and that “will also play a central role in structurally reforming the Boston Planning & Development Agency,” per a press release. Wu pledged to “abolish” the BPDA when she was running for mayor, though she hasn’t answered questions recently about whether she still plans to do so. The BPDA’s leader, Brian Golden, announced his resignation last week, paving the way for big changes, though this job isn’t a direct replacement. Jemison is no stranger to working in Boston or Massachusetts, and he returns to the city after working as principal deputy assistant secretary of housing and urban development for the feds. Wu is also announcing that Devin Quirk will serve as deputy chief for operations and organizational transformation, and that the city is looking to hire a deputy chief of urban design.   A message from National Grid:     IT'S NOT EASY BEING GREEN — "As Earth’s temperature rises, Massachusetts residents’ sense of urgency on climate change declines," by Sabrina Shankman and Dharna Noor, Boston Globe: "Despite increasingly urgent international warnings and an onslaught of catastrophic wildfires and weather linked to global warming, fewer Massachusetts residents see the climate crisis as a very serious concern than they did three years ago, according to a new poll. It’s not that respondents weren’t aware of the climate threat; a large majority acknowledged that symptoms of the crisis such as increased flooding, extreme heat waves, and more powerful storms are either already happening or very likely within five years, according to the poll, a collaboration of The Boston Globe and The MassINC Polling Group. And more than three quarters called climate change a 'very serious' or 'serious' concern. But with a pandemic and war in Ukraine as a backdrop, fewer than half, 48 percent, ranked climate in the highest category of concern, down from 53 percent in 2019, the last time the poll was taken." PLANES, TRAINS AND AUTOMOBILES — “MBTA says it’s reviewing a federal judge’s decision to overturn mask mandate on public transit and airplanes,” by Martin Finucane, Boston Globe: “The Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority said Monday afternoon it was reviewing the decision by a federal judge in Florida voiding the national mask mandate on airplanes and public transit. ‘The MBTA is continuing to follow CDC guidelines and will review the court order. The MBTA is also reaching out to its federal partners to get further guidance,’ MBTA spokesman Joe Pesaturo said in an e-mail Monday afternoon.”   INTRODUCING DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED:  Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today.     ON THE STUMP — “GOP gubernatorial candidates Geoff Diehl, Chris Doughty once again spar over pre-convention debates,” by Alison Kuznitz, MassLive: “As Boston Marathon runners traversed 26.2 miles from Hopkinton to Copley Square on Monday, Republican gubernatorial candidates Geoff Diehl and Chris Doughty remained focused on the virtual campaign trail as they traded sparring messages. … Diehl’s campaign on Monday morning — based ‘on information and belief’ — accused Doughty’s campaign of failing to pay the $25,000 convention fee. Diehl, for his part, noted his campaign submitted the fee in December. … Doughty’s campaign refuted that claim. In a campaign email, Doughty shared a photocopy of a check for $25,000 from the Doughty Committee — based in Beverly — to the Massachusetts Republican Republican Party, based in Woburn. The check was dated April 13.” — SPEAKING OF DEBATES ABOUT DEBATES: Maura Healey and Sonia Chang-Díaz will participate in a Democratic primary forum hosted by Boston Ward 4 and Ward 5 Democrats and moderated by GBH’s Callie Crossley at 6:30 p.m. tonight, one of the two April forums the AG agreed to in response to the state senator’s request for three pre-convention debates. Also in the virtual hot seat tonight are lieutenant governor candidates Salem Mayor Kim Driscoll, state Sens. Eric Lesser and Adam Hinds, state Rep. Tami Gouveia and Bret Bero; secretary of state hopeful Tanisha Sullivan; and auditor rivals Chris Dempsey and state Sen. Diana DiZoglio. WARREN REPORT — “Elizabeth Warren: Democrats Can Avoid Disaster in November,” by Sen. Elizabeth Warren, New York Times: “Democrats win elections when we show we understand the painful economic realities facing American families and convince voters we will deliver meaningful change. To put it bluntly: if we fail to use the months remaining before the elections to deliver on more of our agenda, Democrats are headed toward big losses in the midterms. Time is running short. We need to finalize a budget reconciliation deal, making giant corporations pay their share to fund vital investments in combating climate change and lowering costs for families, which can advance with only 50 Senate votes. Other priorities can be done with the president’s executive authority [like canceling student loan debt].” DATELINE D.C. — LABOR SECRETARY … BERNIE SANDERS? Apparently, “the country came closer than you think,” my POLITICO colleagues write in West Wing Playbook. “...in his new book looking back at the 2020 campaign, top Sanders’ aide Ari Rabin-Havt writes that [Joe] Biden told Sanders he’d nominate him to the post as long as Democrats didn’t win both Senate seats in Georgia,” Sam Stein, Alex Thompson and Max Tani write. “The visions of power were for naught. Democrats won both seats, grabbed control of the Senate, Sanders stayed in the chamber, and Biden nominated Marty Walsh to the labor secretary role instead.” A message from National Grid: National Grid is announcing our path to a fossil-free energy future for our customers and communities. Our fossil-free plan will help achieve the Northeast’s aggressive climate goals and set a new standard for energy companies. We will use renewable natural gas, green hydrogen generated from wind and solar power, battery storage, and greater energy efficiency to make our National Grid system fossil-free by 2050 or earlier. Climate scientists say renewable natural gas is a win-win for the environment. There Is A Better Way to keep energy affordable, reliable, and clean. That’s why we are creating a hybrid pathway that preserves customer choice while delivering the clean, affordable energy future our customers want and deserve. See How.   THE LOCAL ANGLE — “Short-term rental battle riles Nantucket,” by Shira Schoenberg, CommonWealth Magazine: “An effort is now underway to dramatically restrict short-term rentals on the island. Proponents have seized on the argument that short-term rentals are limiting the availability of much-needed housing for lower and middle-wage workers. But opponents say professions of concern over workforce housing are being used to mask a battle between uber-rich homeowners who don’t need to rent their homes and those who rely on income from summer rentals to afford a second home on an island where the median assessed value of homes used for rentals is $1.6 million. Business owners, meanwhile, worry that significant restrictions on short-term rentals will decimate the island’s tourism-based economy.” — “Worcester police, including officers on ‘last chance’ agreements, top list of highest salaries paid to city employees in 2021,” by Erin Tiernan, MassLive: “Of the city’s 100 highest-paid employees, 92 work for the police department. However, Worcester’s list of highest earners also includes several police officers on ‘last chance’ agreements. Regular police department salaries accounted for $40.1 million, but Worcester taxpayers paid members of the force another $13.7 million in detail pay and $4.7 million in overtime last year, records show. … Last-chance agreements essentially give officers a ‘last chance’ to keep their jobs so long as they refrain from behavior that could lead to further discipline or termination.” — "Many police officers suffer trauma. But not everyone gets the mental health support they need," by Ally Jarmanning, WBUR: "Law enforcement experts say it's all too common for officers to struggle emotionally after going through something traumatic. It could be a shooting, like the one involving [Jim] Creed, losing a colleague to suicide or responding to a horrible incident involving a child. But officers don't always get the help they need and many wind up resigning in the months and years that follow." TRANSITIONS — Christine McCay has been named office managing partner of Locke Lord’s Boston office. HAPPY BIRTHDAY — to the Boston Globe’s Emma Platoff, Anya van Wagtendonk, Ron Kaufman, Kyle Grabowski and Hampden, Hampshire & Worcester state Senate candidate Sydney Levin-Epstein.  Want to make an impact? POLITICO Massachusetts has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Bay State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness among this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.   Follow us on Twitter Lisa Kashinsky @lisakashinsky   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our politics and policy newsletters FOLLOW US

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POLITICO NIGHTLY: Surgeon general’s warning: Kids get Covid, too

 

BY DAN GOLDBERG With help from Renuka Rayasam Surgeon General Vivek Murthy testifies during a Senate Finance hearing. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images FOLLOWING THE SCIENCE TO A STOP SIGN — Surgeon General Vivek Murthy tweeted this morning that his 4-year old daughter tested positive for Covid-19. “I wish a vaccine was available for my child and for all kids [under] 5,” Murthy wrote. “It would protect kids and help parents. Unfortunately, more data is still needed from clinical trials for the FDA to make a full assessment.” Murthy wondered in his thread whether he could have done more to protect his little girl or whether her positive result was somehow his fault, expressing the angst and guilt so many pandemic parents feel every day. The FDA stunned scientists, parents and possibly the White House when it announced Friday that it would wait for data on how well three doses of Pfizer-BioNTech’s vaccine protected children younger than 5 before deciding whether to authorize the first two shots. The decision, which means roughly 18 million children will have to wait a little longer before they are eligible, was especially devastating for some parents because a vaccine — and all that immunity might mean — seemed, at last, so close. I have a 19-month old and have never been a parent without a pandemic. Murthy said his daughter will likely be fine. Statistically that’s true, but in his thread, he hit on something all parents know: Statistics aren’t reassuring when your child has a fever, or cough or, in his words, “isn’t her usual bubbly self.”  “Few things are worse than worrying about your child’s health,” he wrote. “In these moments, it doesn’t matter if you’re a doctor or Surgeon General. We are parents first.” Which is why the FDA’s delay hit so hard. “It’s a baffling sequence of events,” said Jason Schwartz, associate professor of health policy and a vaccine expert at the Yale School of Public Health. “The FDA went from not being comfortable with the two-dose data to being comfortable enough with it to take an unprecedented approach, to then, hours before the meeting, pulling the plug on that approach,” Schwartz said. The whiplash and the lack of transparency — we still don’t know what the data showed or what led to FDA’s decision — leaves the door open for people to spin the news in ways that make the vaccine seem dangerous and increases hesitancy, said Govind Persad, an assistant professor at the University of Denver Sturm College of Law, where he focuses on health law, and a Greenwall Foundation faculty scholar in bioethics. Some had hoped the FDA would authorize a two-dose regimen while waiting to assess the efficacy of a third dose. But William Schaffner, a professor of infectious disease at Vanderbilt University Medical Center and a longtime adviser to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, argued that waiting for all the data is more likely to convince more parents that the vaccine is safe and effective than scare them because it was delayed for a short time. “‘We don’t know the whole story yet but bring your child in to get vaccinated’ — that made me very uneasy,” he said. “If you go to parents and say, ‘Our recommendation is to vaccinate your children,’ you need to have the whole story.” But most kids will be fine, right? Yes, it is true that very few children under 5 die or suffer serious complications from Covid-19, but that doesn’t mean it’s no big deal for kids to get Covid. A child who tests positive and shows up in the emergency room with a croup-like barking cough may not get admitted to the hospital, but a midnight run to the emergency room is nothing to take lightly. And when some cavalierly suggest that most kids will be fine, they gloss over how a positive test means quarantining from daycare or preschool. For two working parents this can be a lot to juggle, and for single-parents it can be impossible. Parents who are paid by the hour and who are low-wage workers are the ones least likely to have paid-sick leave, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And America’s youngest children are more likely to be people of color and are more likely to live in poverty than older Americans. When children are home from school, it’s more likely to be mom who stays home with them, a pandemic problem that has exacerbated pay gaps and disparities in the workforce. “The effects aren’t borne equally in all sorts of ways,” Persad said. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at dgoldberg@politico.com, or on Twitter at @DanCGoldberg.   STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.     AROUND THE WORLD A DAY OF HEDGING — “Partially pulling back.” “Cautious optimism.” “Not on the agenda.” The language out of Washington, Brussels and Moscow today was uncertain, buoyed by Russian remarks that indicated a desire to continue seeking diplomatic options, but guarded by the reality of 150,000 troops surrounding Ukraine. President Joe Biden, while sending warnings to Russian President Vladimir Putin over targeting Americans and dangerous cyberattacks, urged a continued push to prevent war: “As long as there is hope of a diplomatic resolution — that prevents the use of force and avoids the incredible human suffering that would follow — we will pursue it.” In other Russia-Ukraine developments: — Ukrainian Ministry of Defense websites hit by cyberattack: The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense said in a tweet that the websites were down, and that it was likely being targeted by a distributed denial of service, or DDoS, attack. A separate Ukrainian agency, the Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security, said the website of the Armed Forces of Ukraine had also been attacked. — A ‘swift’ and ‘unified’ sanctions slam on Russia? Not exactly: Behind the scenes, U.S. and European officials are still hammering out the details of how hard to hit Moscow with sanctions, and when . The ongoing talks — both transatlantic and among European states — suggest that repeated statements by Biden and his top aides that Russia will face “swift,” “severe” and “unified” consequences from Washington and its allies are overly optimistic, and that the reality will be more messy. — Russia’s parliament urges Putin to recognize separatist republics in Ukraine: The Duma, the Russian parliament’s lower house, asked Putin to recognize the independence of two Russian-backed breakaway regions in Ukraine, a move that could threaten diplomatic efforts to avoid a broader war between the two countries.   DON’T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO’s new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.     WHAT'D I MISS? People gather along with truck drivers to block the streets during an anti-government and anti-vaccine mandate protest in Ottawa, Canada. | Spencer Platt/Getty Images — Ottawa’s police chief resigns on day 19 of trucker protest: Since the start of the crisis in the core of Canada’s capital city, Peter Sloly and his department have come under fire from city councilors and Ottawa residents for failing to respond decisively to demonstrations that have attracted global attention. Police have been unable — and have mostly appeared unwilling — to dislodge a trucker convoy that has clogged downtown Ottawa with big rigs and transformed the foot of Parliament Hill into an unwanted street party. — Rice says she won’t seek another House term, the latest exit on Long Island: Rep. Kathleen Rice will not run for reelection in November, she announced today, making her the third of four House members on Long Island to announce they are leaving at the end of their terms. She becomes the 30th House Democrat nationwide to announce they would not run this fall as the party hopes to retain the majority in the midterm elections. — Senate confirms Califf for FDA: In a 50-46 vote, the Senate confirmed Robert Califf to lead the Food and Drug Administration, installing permanent leadership after a 13-month holding pattern atop an agency critical to the pandemic response and responsible for regulating roughly 20 cents of every dollar spent by U.S. consumers. — New Hampshire GOP fundraiser draws 2024 hopefuls: A slew of potential 2024 GOP presidential candidates are headlining an upcoming New Hampshire Republican Party fundraiser, an illustration of how contenders are gearing up ahead of the party’s upcoming nomination process. The host committee for the March 30 event includes Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, among others. NIGHTLY NUMBER As much as 1 foot The amount sea levels along U.S. coasts will rise by in the next 30 years as climate change accelerates, leading to a “dramatic increase” in millions of Americans’ exposure to flooding, scientists warned in a federal report published today. Climate change driven largely by burning fossil fuels will raise average sea levels adjacent to the U.S. shoreline as much in the next 30 years as they rose in the previous century, according to the study led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. PARTING WORDS PROBING QUESTIONS — Expect many more months of headlines from John Durham’s wide-ranging probe into the investigation of Russian interference with the 2016 election, even as some recent stories have been thoroughly debunked. So far Durham, tasked in 2019 by then-Attorney General William Barr with looking into possible legal violations in the Trump-Russia probe, has charged three people with making false statements: former FBI attorney Kevin Clinesmith; D.C. cybersecurity attorney Michael Sussmann of Democrat-connected firm Perkins Coie; and Russian-born foreign policy researcher Igor Danchenko. Clinesmith pleaded guilty and got a year of probation. Sussmann and Danchenko pleaded not guilty and are set for separate trials later this year. Nightly’s Renuka Rayasam chatted with Josh Gerstein, a senior legal affairs reporter for POLITICO, over Slack today about where the investigation heads from here. This conversation has been edited. What is Durham investigating? The exact scope of the probe has never been publicly defined. The indictments so far suggest that Durham is trying to tell a story of how specious information about Trump and his circle was taken too seriously by the U.S. government. The question defense lawyers are posing is whether these cases and their dockets are an appropriate place to lay out that narrative, which goes well beyond the core issues in those cases. In December, I asked Attorney General Merrick Garland whether these filings followed DOJ policies and he declined to answer, but he said in essence that a special counsel gets more wiggle room under the rules. Garland has vowed that he will release as much as possible of any final report Durham produces. How solid are these two cases? Numerically speaking, the Sussmann case seems tenuous because it is a single false-statement count based on Sussmann allegedly saying that he wasn’t representing a client when he met with FBI General Counsel James Baker in September 2016 to relay concerns about a possible digital trail between someone in Trump Tower and Russia’s Alfa Bank. There’s no recording of the meeting and Baker has given varying accounts of exactly what Sussmann said. Sussmann’s trial is set for May. If it happens, that will be a huge test for the Durham probe for whether it can deliver in court. And of course it’s another opportunity for the Durham team to air its assessment of whatever wrongs it thinks were committed in the lead-up to the 2016 election. Danchenko faces five counts, but he’s not a native English speaker, so may be able to argue that he didn’t fully understand the FBI or they didn’t understand him. I think the concerns about Durham’s actions go beyond the charges, though, and more to the way they’re being pursued. For instance, the indictment of Danchenko says an associate of his told another person that Danchenko was likely working for Russian intelligence. That kind of statement probably wouldn’t be admissible in court, isn’t essential to the indictment and I don’t think it would be included in a typical indictment DOJ filed in a typical case. How does this probe end? There’s no time limit that I know of, although technically Garland could dismiss Durham at any time for “misconduct, dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, or for other good cause.” Danchenko’s trial isn’t scheduled until October, so it seems it runs at least through then, unless there is some deal or resolution in his case. Some observers think Durham may be trying to stack up building blocks here to go after more prominent players, including people who played key roles in Clinton’s campaign. But often these kinds of investigations peter out in ways that some find unsatisfying: with some bit players being charged and perhaps convicted, while others at a higher level remain legally unscathed. Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Chris Suellentrop @suellentrop Tyler Weyant @tweyant Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam Myah Ward @myahward   FOLLOW US

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