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Morning Digest: A toxic GOP nominee for governor has Democrats eyeing Boebert for defeat
Even in Colorado's reddest precincts, Republicans are on defense
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Leading Off
Colorado
Colorado Democrats have a chance to run the table this year as Republicans head into the midterms dragged down by a toxic nominee for governor whose own party is abandoning him.
That nominee is Victor Marx, a Christian ministry founder who, among many other things, responded to a question from News9 earlier this year asking how many people he’d killed as an adult by saying, “Does it matter?”
Marx’s fellow Republicans have largely kept their distance from a candidate who continues to draw the kind of national attention that no one should ever want. But former Rep. Ken Buck, a conservative hardliner who became an unlikely Donald Trump critic, went even further on Wednesday by crossing party lines to endorse Attorney General Phil Weiser, Marx’s Democratic opponent.
Weiser would have been favored to defeat any GOP nominee in Colorado, a former swing state that has shifted sharply to the left over the last decade, but the downward pressure from Marx’s disastrous campaign is being felt especially acutely in all four of the state’s Republican-held congressional districts.
Democrats had always planned to target the 8th District, a swing seat that Republican Gabe Evans narrowly flipped two years ago. They also had reason to think that Donald Trump’s weak approval ratings might give them an opening in the more conservative 3rd and 5th Districts even before Marx became the GOP’s standard-bearer this summer.
The GOP’s mighty struggles across the state, though, have now given Democrats an unexpected opportunity to go after Rep. Lauren Boebert, one of the most infamous Republicans in Congress, in Colorado’s reddest district.
Two years ago, Trump scored a 58-40 victory in the 4th District, which includes Colorado’s rural eastern communities and Denver’s conservative exurbs.
Boebert had originally represented the 3rd District on the other side of the state, but last cycle, fearing a repeat of her unexpectedly close shave in 2022, she jumped over to the 4th District after Buck chose not to seek reelection. Still, she ran several points behind Trump with her 54-42 win.
Boebert, one of the rare officeholders to endorse Marx during the primary, now faces Democrat Eileen Laubacher, a former Republican who retired from the Navy as a rear admiral. Though she faces a tough race, Laubacher has taken advantage of Boebert’s national notoriety to raise millions, just as prior Democratic challengers have.
Most notably, though, deep-pocketed outfits on both sides are also directing money to the contest.
The far-right House Freedom Caucus spent roughly $760,000 in September to aid Boebert, according to FEC data, though it doesn’t appear to have deployed any further resources this month.
At the same time, the Invest in Tomorrow Coalition, a group funded by wealthy renewable energy investors, is making Boebert’s defeat a priority. The organization, which is targeting Republicans in conservative districts, released a poll last week showing the congresswoman leading Laubacher by a modest 45-40 margin, with a hefty 9% going to Libertarian nominee Douglas Mangeris.
That late September survey, conducted by Impact Research, came as Invest in Tomorrow began what’s now a $1.5 million campaign against Boebert, an effort that includes ads reminding viewers of what may be the strangest episode of her bizarre career.
“’Beetlejuice’ is the 80s family classic,” begins the narrator. “Also the show Lauren Boebert was kicked out of for groping her date in a room full of children.”
The audience sees 2023 surveillance footage of Boebert and her then-partner just before they were ejected from a performance of the Beetlejuice musical in Denver. The narrator continues, “Costs are skyrocketing in Colorado, and politicians are failing us. If Lauren Boebert can’t be trusted in a room full of kids, then she can’t be trusted in the halls of Congress.”
That incident occurred three years after Boebert became a far-right sensation thanks to her shock victory over Rep. Scott Tipton in the 2020 Republican primary for the 3rd District. Just as rapidly, Boebert became notorious among Democrats for spreading QAnon conspiracy theories. Though she convincingly won the general election that fall, her behavior in office quickly alienated voters across the political spectrum.
Just two years later, Boebert managed to defeat Democrat Adam Frisch by just 546 votes—a squeaker almost no one saw coming. Following his near-miss, Frisch soon announced he’d seek a rematch. Boebert’s troubles only intensified in the summer of 2023 when attorney Jeff Hurd kicked off a primary campaign against her—a launch that came before that fateful Beetlejuice performance.
Boebert, though, unexpectedly seized on a chance to flee to redder turf after Buck announced he wouldn’t seek reelection to the 4th District. Boebert successfully executed her district jump even after Buck resigned in the middle of his term, a move she characteristically claimed was part of “a swampy backroom deal to try to rig an election” against her.
Laubacher, however, is also new to the district. At a recent debate, she defended her connections to the 4th, as well as her political beliefs. Moderator Kyle Clark, the 9News anchor who interviewed Marx this spring, asked the challenger about her decision to switch her voter registration from unaffiliated to Democratic in 2024, less than a year after she left the GOP, as well as why she’d relocated to the 4th District that same year.
Laubacher responded that she didn’t believe a person’s “political party is a defining characteristic of who we are.” She also said she’d moved “10 miles” to an area she already knew because it was the best choice for her family.
Democrats in western Colorado, meanwhile, are aiming to flip Boebert’s former district even though they no longer have her as a foil.
The 3rd District, based in the Pueblo area and Western Slope, is now held by Hurd, who beat Frisch by a relatively close 51-46 spread in 2024 as Trump was prevailing 54-44. His opponent this fall is Army veteran Dwayne Romero, who served in then-Gov. John Hickenlooper’s administration over a decade ago.
A pair of super PACs funded by Trump’s MAGA Inc. seem to think Romero might pose a threat and have spent more than $1 million to thwart him. Democratic groups, however, have yet to show comparable interest in the race.
Just to the east in the Colorado Springs area is the 5th District, where freshman GOP Rep. Jeff Crank is defending a constituency that Democrats have never held since it came into existence following the 1970 census. But Jessica Killin, an Army veteran who served as chief of staff to then-second gentleman Doug Emhoff, has been waging a well-funded campaign for a district Trump won 53-44.
Outside spending has been even heavier here, with GOP groups investing almost $2.9 million so far and Democratic outfits putting in more than $1.2 million.
Finally, there’s the high-profile contest between GOP Rep. Gabe Evans and Democrat Manny Rutinel, a former state representative, for the 8th District. Trump prevailed by a tight 50-48 margin in the 8th, which is based in Denver’s northern suburbs and the Greeley area.
That made it a top Democratic pickup opportunity even before anyone knew just how challenging 2026 would be for Colorado Republicans, though spending has remained high on both sides.
Governors
MI-Gov
Rep. John James is getting some help from the Michigan GOP after the Republican Governors’ Association recently abandoned his campaign for governor, though he still faces a major advertising deficit against his Democratic opponent, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson.
AdImpact reported on Thursday that James’ campaign and the state Republican Party are spending $1 million on a coordinated ad buy, though it’s not clear how much money each entity is spending. And even with this infusion, Benson and her allies have $13.6 million in future ad time booked, while James and the GOP have just $2.3 million reserved.
Last week, the local tipsheet MIRS reported that the RGA had dramatically scaled back its efforts on behalf of James, who faces a serious deficit in the polls. That prompted James to tell the Detroit News that he would instead rely on a “grassroots approach” that included “word of mouth” to bolster his bid.
TN-Gov
Allies of Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn have contributed over $4 million to a group attacking independent David Hatley in the unexpectedly expensive general election for Tennessee’s open governorship, new campaign finance reports reveal.
Choose Freedom PAC has aired ads attacking Hatley over his 1998 conviction for bank fraud and subsequent one-month prison sentence. Blackburn, the frontrunner to lead this dark red state, has also labeled Hatley “Deadbeat Dave.”
But Hatley, the founder of what he calls “the largest hot tub manufacturing operation on American soil,” is using his wealth to get his own message out. The unaffiliated candidate loaned his campaign $5 million last month, bringing his total personal investment to $12 million.
Hatley, who told the Nashville Banner last month that he’s both a “conservative” and “straight down the middle person,” faces Blackburn and Memphis Councilwoman Jerri Green, who is hoping to be Tennessee’s first Democratic governor in 16 years. However, no one has released polling in the last month to indicate whether Hatley is posing a serious threat to Blackburn.
House
NY-03
Republicans finally seem to agree with Democrats that New York Rep. Tom Suozzi isn’t in danger, as Donald Trump’s political network has stopped airing ads following a major spending spree.
No Going Back PAC, which is funded by Trump’s MAGA Inc., spent $6.5 million in the second half of September to help Republican Mike LiPetri unseat Suozzi even as major Democratic groups remained aloof. And it had looked like even more GOP money was on the way, as Newsday reported earlier this month that the PAC’s effort was part of an $11 million onslaught.
But those additional funds never materialized, and apparently never will. On Thursday, Punchbowl reported that “MAGA Inc.-aligned groups are stopping airing TV ads” in New York’s 3rd District, according to AdImpact and other trackers.
Newsday later added that the Congressional Leadership Fund, which had spent about $430,000 to date, also has no future advertising planned.
The massive GOP deployment stood in stark contrast to Democratic confidence that Suozzi was not in any danger, despite unfavorable trends for the party on Long Island. The disparity also caught the notice of political prognosticators.
“Explained to a Senior Democratic Strategist today that Republicans are spending $11+ million to try to beat Suozzi and I think they thought I was on drugs,” Inside Elections’ Jacob Rubashkin commented late last month. “Two parties just seeing entirely different races.”
Now, though, it appears that both parties are seeing the same race.
Poll Pile
All polls must comply with The Downballot’s requirements.
AK-Sen: Public Policy Polling for unidentified client:
Mary Peltola (D): 48, Dan Sullivan (R-inc): 47.
PPP is a Democratic firm.
AR-Sen: Hendrix College for Talk Business & Politics:
Tom Cotton (R-inc): 50, Hallie Shoffner (D): 41, Jeff Wadlin (L): 5.
Aug.: 47-44 Shoffner.
MI-Sen: The Tyson Group for Alliance for a Better Future (pro-Mike Rogers):
Rogers (R): 46, Abdul El-Sayed (D): 44.
Unreleased September poll: 44-43 El-Sayed.
MT-Sen: Concord Public Opinion Partners:
Seth Bodnar (I): 37, Kurt Alme (R): 35, Alani Bankhead (D): 13, Kyle Austin (L): 1.
Concord’s clients (both for this and the South Dakota poll below) are not known, but the firm’s principals are both employed by Democrats for Education Reform, for which it has conducted polling in the past.
SD-Sen: Concord:
Brian Bengs (I): 43, Mike Rounds (R-inc): 42.
NY-Gov: Beacon Research for Secure AI Project:
Kathy Hochul (D-inc): 53, Bruce Blakeman (R): 31.
Secure AI Project, which focused on AI safety issues in its release, does not appear to have made an endorsement in this race.
SD-Gov: Concord:
Larry Rhoden (R-inc): 48, Dan Ahlers (D): 38.
AK-AL: PPP:
Nick Begich (R-inc): 45, Bill Hill (I): 44, Eric Hafner (D): 5, Jim McDermott (L): 2.
St. Petersburg, FL Mayor: St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics:
Charlie Crist: 53, Ken Welch (inc): 32.
Sept.: 52-27 Crist.
Both candidates are Democrats.
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