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Morning Digest: Democrats take aim at Nebraska seat they've won just once in nine decades
The House battleground now covers districts few ever thought might be in play
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Leading Off
NE-01
As Democrats seek to put deep-red House seats in play across the country, a top super PAC just launched a last-minute sneak attack on one of Nebraska’s most implacably Republican districts.
The House Majority PAC booked at least $1 million in ad time to target Republican Rep. Mike Flood in the 1st District, AdImpact reported Wednesday.
Flood faces Democrat Chris Backemeyer, a former State Department official, in a constituency Donald Trump carried 56-43 just two years ago. Last week, though, HMP released an internal poll showing Flood up just 46-45.
Prior to HMP’s involvement, Backemeyer had received almost $2 million in outside help, mostly from a group called Retire Career Politicians, which has supported independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn. Just $30,000, by contrast, has been spent to boost Flood.
The 1st District, home to the state capital of Lincoln and surrounding rural areas, hasn’t elected a Democrat in more than six decades, and it hardly looked like a battleground for most of this election cycle. This year, however, has been a brutal one for Nebraska’s long-dominant Republican Party.
Well-funded GOP groups recently triaged the Omaha-based 2nd District, an open swing seat that Democrat Denise Powell is primed to flip. At the same time, Gov. Jim Pillen is in danger of losing to Democrat Lynn Walz, while Sen. Pete Ricketts faces a difficult race against Osborn.
One source of the GOP’s travails is Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” which Flood voted for last year. A month after the vote, the congressman made national news when he was loudly booed at a town hall in Lincoln, where he told angry attendees that there was “a lot of misinformation out there” about the legislation.
Backemeyer was one of those attendees, and he took his chance to ask Flood, “Who do you work for?” The Democrat used that clip in his launch video when he kicked off his campaign last November, almost a year ahead of Election Day.
That bill remains an especially fraught issue in Nebraska, thanks to the state’s decision to enforce new federal work requirements for Medicaid recipients this summer rather than wait until the law’s Jan. 1 deadline. Republican pollster Bob Ward recently told the Washington Sun that Medicaid cuts were some of the most “resonating negatives” he’d learned about rural voters’ impressions of the bill.
Backemeyer is hoping that discontent over Trump’s signature bill, as well as anger toward Trump’s tariffs and his decision to wage war on Iran, will give him an opening to flip a seat Republicans have rarely had to worry about.
Flood’s constituency—which is descended from the same district that Democrat William Jennings Bryan represented in the 1890s before waging his three failed presidential campaigns—has been reliably Republican turf for nearly a century.
In 1938, Republicans unseated a Democratic incumbent in the 1st, which has long included Lincoln and its environs, during Franklin Roosevelt’s second midterm election. The only Democratic breakthrough since then came in 1964 during Lyndon Johnson’s national landslide, but Republicans took the seat back just two years later.
Republican mapmakers were confident their long winning streak would continue when they drew up a map after the 2020 census that sought to protect Rep. Don Bacon by moving competitive communities around Omaha from his 2nd District into the 1st, then represented by fellow Republican Jeff Fortenberry.
Even when Fortenberry resigned in 2022 after being convicted of concealing illegal campaign funds he received from a foreign national, Republicans had little to fear. (A federal appeals court overturned his conviction the following year on jurisdictional grounds, and Trump’s Justice Department later dropped the case.)
In the ensuing special election, Republican leaders tapped Flood, who had already been waging a primary campaign against Fortenberry. Given the district’s history, Flood’s faceoff against Democrat Patty Pansing Brooks, a fellow member of the state’s unicameral legislature, looked like it would be an afterthought.
In an inexplicable twist, the special was held using the new—and less conservative— version of the 1st District that lawmakers had recently approved, even though the winner would represent the turf Fortenberry last won in 2020. Still, despite the unexpected redistricting-related boost, Pansing Brooks drew no outside support, and the contest attracted little attention.
The race, though, took place at the end of June, just days after the Supreme Court issued its ruling overturning Roe v. Wade. Flood prevailed by a surprisingly small 53-47 margin—the first electoral sign that Republicans, who were anticipating a strong year, might struggle now that abortion rights had abruptly become a top issue.
But while the GOP did indeed have a disappointing evening that November, Flood won a rematch against Pansing Brooks by a wider 58-42 spread. The congressman easily locked down a second full term the next cycle, and even when Backemeyer announced his challenge last year, he still looked secure. That, however, may no longer be the case.
The Downballot Podcast
Our hour-by-hour guide to election night 2026
Finally, Election Day is almost here! But with literally thousands of races on the docket, how will you make sense of election night? The supremely knowledgeable Jeff Singer, our managing editor, joins us for the last pre-election episode of The Downballot podcast to give us an hour-by-hour breakdown of the key contests to watch.
Jeff highlights a host of races that will tell us what kind of night Democrats are having and whether they’re on track to take control of Congress. Starting with Indiana and Kentucky, where the first polls close on Tuesday, he flags a pair of House elections on deep red turf where the margins are as important as the outcome. Making his way across the country with stops in Texas, Wisconsin, Kansas, and more, Jeff wraps up with Alaska, where a pivotal battle for the Senate could determine who wins the chamber.
And remember to join us live at 6:45 PM ET on Tuesday for our election night livestream with our partners at Strength In Numbers! Click below to save a reminder to your calendar:
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House
CA-13
Two weeks ago, amid reports that the Congressional Leadership Fund had cut more than $4 million from its TV reservations aimed at flipping California’s 13th District, an anonymous GOP operative told Politico that the giant super PAC was “not reducing its spending in the district” but was “instead shifting its millions to other advertising mediums.” That doesn’t seem to be what happened.
The same week that the drawdown became public, CLF spent another $860,000 to support Republican Kevin Lincoln’s bid to oust Democratic Rep. Adam Gray. The following week, though, it spent just $15,000, with its last FEC filing coming on Oct. 23.
While it’s not impossible that the PAC could spend another $3.3 million in the waning days of the race—and all on platforms other than broadcast television—such an expenditure would be its fourth-largest single-week disbursement in an individual race of the entire campaign season.
That kind of last-minute saturation campaign looks unlikely. There’s been no public polling of the race, but CLF’s Democratic counterpart, the House Majority PAC, signaled its confidence last week by canceling $670,000 in ad time that had been intended to help Gray.
Spending
The House Majority PAC is heading back into three conservative districts that it had apparently veered away from while also making its first foray into another GOP seat in deep-red territory.
Over the last two weeks, data from AdImpact revealed that HMP had cut all of its remaining reservations—some $2.5 million in total—in Florida’s 7th District, where Democrat Bale Dalton faces Republican Ryan Elijah. But a spokesperson for the PAC, CJ Warnke, shared a new update from AdImpact on Wednesday showing that the group had made a new booking of more than $500,000 for the final week of the election.
At the same time, HMP also reserved $145,000 for Florida’s 27th District, where Democrat Eliott Rodriguez is hoping to unseat Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar. Previously, the PAC canceled more than $1.6 million that had been intended for the race.
Out west, meanwhile, Warnke told the Colorado Sun that HMP would spend another $2.1 million in its quest to help Democrat Dwayne Romero oust Republican Rep. Jeff Hurd in Colorado’s 3rd District. A day earlier, however, the Sun had reported that HMP intended to spend just $300,000 on the 3rd District while redirecting the remainder of the $1 million it had booked to the swingy 8th District.
Finally, in upstate New York’s 21st District, HMP is spending $1.7 million to help Democrat Blake Gendebien defeat Republican Anthony Constantino, according to AdImpact data relayed by Politico. The move comes after Safety and Affordability PAC, a group aligned with Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc., directed $550,000 to aid the GOP nominee.
Constantino, a wealthy sticker magnate and fanatical Trump supporter, has loaned his campaign $17 million to defend the seat held by retiring GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik. Gendebien, though, has raised almost $7.8 million from donors, making him one of the strongest fundraisers among Democratic candidates for the House.
And while Trump carried the 21st District by an imposing 60-39 margin, three polls conducted in October all found a close race.
Keep tabs on all House race triage with our continually updated tracker.
Poll Pile
All polls must comply with The Downballot’s requirements.
AL-Sen: Blueprint Polling:
Barry Moore (R): 48, Everett Wess (D): 40.
Blueprint, a Democratic firm, says this survey was “not sponsored by any outside campaign or organization.”
KS-Sen: CNN/SSRS:
Adam Hamilton (D): 49, Roger Marshall (R-inc): 45.
ME-Sen: CNN/SSRS:
Troy Jackson (D): 49, Susan Collins (R-inc): 45.
Sept.: 48-45 Jackson.
MI-Sen: Mitchell Research & Communications for WWJ/WKBD:
Abdul El-Sayed (D): 51, Mike Rogers (R): 44, all others 1% or less.
MI-Sen: CNN/SSRS:
El-Sayed (D): 49, Rogers (R): 42.
Sept.: 47-44 El-Sayed.
MN-Sen: Victory Insights for Michele Tafoya:
Peggy Flanagan (D): 48, Tafoya (R): 44.
MT-Sen: Concord Public Opinion Partners for Democrats For Education Reform:
Seth Bodnar (I): 39, Kurt Alme (R): 38, Alani Bankhead (D): 10, Kyle Austin (L): 2.
Early Oct.: Bodnar: 37, Alme: 35, Bankhead: 13.
DFER has not made an endorsement in this race.
TX-Sen: YouGov Blue for 254 Labs:
James Talarico (D): 51, Ken Paxton (R): 43.
254 Labs is a Democratic group.
TX-Sen: Texas Southern University:
Talarico (D): 49, Paxton (R): 47, Ted Brown (L): 3.
Sept.: 47-46 Talarico.
TX-Sen: CNN/SSRS:
Talarico (D): 49, Paxton (R): 43.
AL-Gov: Blueprint:
Tommy Tuberville (R): 48, Doug Jones (D): 45.
AZ-Gov: KStrat for American Encore:
Katie Hobbs (D-inc): 48, Andy Biggs (R): 43.
Aug.: 45-40 Hobbs.
American Encore is a conservative organization.
KS-Gov: CNN/SSRS:
Ty Masterson (R): 50, Cindy Holscher (D): 45.
ME-Gov: CNN/SSRS:
Hannah Pingree (D): 53, Bobby Charles (R): 39.
Sept.: 52-39 Pingree.
The poll did not include independent Rick Bennett as an option.
MI-Gov: CNN/SSRS:
Jocelyn Benson (D): 53, John James (R): 41.
Sept.: 50-41 Benson.
MN-Gov: Victory Insights:
Amy Klobuchar (D): 50, Lisa Demuth (R): 43.
TX-Gov: YouGov Blue:
Gina Hinojosa (D): 49, Greg Abbott (R-inc): 46.
TX-Gov: TSU:
Abbott (R-inc): 50, Hinojosa (D): 47, Pat Dixon (L): 2.
Sept.: 49-45 Abbott.
TX-Gov: CNN/SSRS:
Abbott (R-inc): 48, Hinojosa (D): 46.
WI-Gov: Marquette University Law School:
David Crowley (D): 51, Tom Tiffany (R): 44.
Sept.: 49-46 Crowley.
WI-Gov: Wick for the League of American Workers:
Crowley (D): 48, Tiffany (R): 45.
The League of American Workers is a conservative organization.
AL-02: Remington Research Group:
Rhett Marques (R): 48, Shomari Figures (D-inc): 46.
Remington, a Republican firm, did not say if this poll was done on behalf of a client.
CA-04: Fulcrum Strategy Group for Eric Jones:
Jones (D): 53, Mike Thompson (D-inc): 40.
MN-08: Public Policy Polling for Trina Swanson:
Pete Stauber (R-inc): 49, Swanson (D): 43.
TX-AG: YouGov Blue:
Nathan Johnson (D): 47, Mayes Middleton (R): 45.
TX-AG: TSU:
Middleton (R): 49, Johnson (D): 45, Tom Oxford (L): 2.
Sept.: 47-42 Middleton.
TX Railroad Commissioner: YouGov Blue:
Jon Rosenthal (D): 47, Bo French (R): 43.
TX Railroad Commissioner: TSU:
French (R): 47, Rosenthal (D): 46, Arthur DiBianca (L): 3.
Sept.: 44-42 French.
MI Ballot - Proposal 1 (hold constitutional convention) - The Glengariff Group for WDIV/the Detroit News:
No: 49, Yes: 34.
Sept.: 47-31 “Yes.”
TX-LG: YouGov Blue:
Vikki Goodwin (D): 48, Dan Patrick (R-inc): 45.
TX-LG: TSU:
Patrick (R-inc): 49, Goodwin (D): 45, all others 2% or less.
Sept.: 47-41 Patrick.
TX Comptroller: TSU:
Don Huffines (R-inc): 50, Sarah Eckhardt (D): 44, all others 1% or less.
Sept.: 47-39 Huffines.
TX Land Commissioner: TSU:
Dawn Buckingham (R-inc): 50, Benjamin Flores, (D): 44, Neill Snider (L): 2.
Sept.: 47-39 Buckingham.
TX Agriculture Commissioner: TSU:
Nate Sheets (R): 48, Clayton Tucker (D): 44, Austin Kelly (L): 2.
Sept.: 45-39 Sheets.
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