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Today in Politics, Bulletin 467. 9/25/26

Ron Filipkowski … In another seismic shift, Cook Political just moved 15 more races in their projected ratings of congressional elections in favor of Democrats. Not one race was moved more favorably in the direction of a Republican candidate: NC-11: Lean R → Toss Up TX-15: Lean R → Toss Up FL-22: Lean R → Toss Up NJ-07: Toss Up → Lean D AZ-01: Toss Up → Lean D CO-05: Likely R → Lean R TX-35: Likely R → Lean R MT-01: Likely R → Lean R FL-27: Likely R → Lean R FL-13: Likely R → Lean R WI-01: Likely R → Lean R NV-02: Solid R → Likely R VA-05: Solid R → Likely R NY-21: Solid R → Likely R TX-09: Solid R → Likely R … Political analyst Mark Halperin had one of the most discussed columns in Republican circles in the last 24 hours on the midterms: … “As I sift through my inboxes and social media feeds over the most recent extended news cycle, what I see instead is the possibilities that the wheels are coming off for a political figure who is swimming against the tide of a Blue tsunami as big as CT, not because Ken Martin is suddenly a genius, but because an unpopular war and high consumer prices is no way to win a midterm election. … And, remember, I write this as someone who has been a leading proponent for over a decade of the view that Trump is second only to Bill Clinton over the last 40 years as a political athlete. So, if you are looking for support for the theory that those wheels are coming off the Trump WH bus in the context of the midterms, consider: This new taxpayer-funded and blatantly political TV ad featuring the president is as obviously illegal as it is appalling (including to many Republicans I have heard from). The president is considering spending one of his days on the road between now and Election Day in….Alabama???!! Florida and Kansas are among the many Red places that have sprung a lot of electoral leaks that are going to need to be plugged and fast. The media ban is considered stupid, ill advised, doomed, and counterproductive but way more people than just Peter Baker (including, again, by many of my pro-Trump Republican sources). The diesel export ban morass is an own-goal failure on at least 3 levels, and there is now both no easy answer or route out of the political expectations and policy messes. The rumors have started back up that MAGA Inc. will not spend down its cash pile to help Republican candidates, causing all sorts of finger pointing and teeth gnashing. The efforts of GOP candidates to distance themselves from the president to save themselves are only just getting underway - and while the WH is (mostly) fine with it (‘they gotta do what they gotta do to win’), the defections produce a lot of negative news stories and no one thinks the president will actually be fine with it. Trump’s approval rating are in the toilet, fueled by lost support from key groups like young men, women, Hispanics, and independents. On the Warsh watch, there are swirling interactions between interest rates, the bond market, the size of the debt and deficit, and AI spending dangers that could lead to an economic calamity. Efforts to get an October Surprise deal with Tehran are almost certainly an illusion and a trap for a dozen reasons, including the inconsistencies of US ‘allies’ in the region about what they want. Unless there is some big surprise today, the Xi summit looks like a bunch of pageantry with no prospect of helping Republicans in the midterms (and maybe to the contrary). Peggy Noonan speaks for many when she suggests the president is completely bolloxing up AI for the long term, but/and/also being so pro-AI and data center could go down in history as one of the factors that cost his party majority control of both chambers. … Fox chief political analyst Brit Hume responded to Halperin’s column: “Bleak outlook for GOP and getting bleaker. This from a political analyst I always pay attention to.” … Politico: “James Talarico is doing an extraordinary thing for a Democrat in TX: holding his own in late Sept polls amid a historic deluge of $160 million in Republican spending. When he sat down here at the Texas Tribune Festival yesterday, the moderator ticked through the last 10 public polls. Talarico led in every one.” … “Chuck Schumer is taking notice. Last night, Senate Majority PAC launched an affiliate called Texas Forever. That indicates Democrats are readying to lay some money on the table. The how appears to be a mixture of TX-textured campaigning free from national Democratic Party fingerprints and winning the attention economy - not just nationally, but locally.” … “His attention economy tally is reminiscent of former Barack Obama. Talarico’s latest Jimmy Kimmel exploit garnered 75 earned media stories about censorship and 12 million YouTube views. Yesterday, he did 5 back-to-back interviews with local rural TV stations about the impacts of imported foreign beef. One of those interviews aired 4 times over 18 hours on a local outlet.” … One veteran Texas GOP operative: “It’s going to take a Herculean effort to hold the seat. The Monday morning quarterbacking is going to be biblical. The hand-wringing and the blaming. Ken Paxton will blame John Cornyn. Trump will blame Paxton. Trump should blame himself.” … Talarico at a campaign event: “Ken Paxton has been dodging debates all year, and it’s why today I’m challenging Ken Paxton to a debate on Fox News. I’ll go into the lion’s den because I know what I believe.” … Talarico then called Ken Paxton’s cell phone on camera and posted the video with this caption after leaving a voicemail: “Ken Paxton keeps dodging debates. So I called his cell to invite him to a debate on Fox News. He didn’t pick up.” … CNN’s Manu Raju asked TX Sen. John Cornyn about the race: Q - “So you're not planning to help Paxton fundraise at all? Cornyn: That's correct. Q - Why? Cornyn: This is the way majority parties become minority parties - by nominating candidates that are less than appealing to a general election electorate. Q - Does he deserve to be a senator? Cornyn: I'll let the voters decide that.” … Ouch. Cornyn might not say it out loud, but he’s voting for Talarico. … NBC: “Texas officials sent tens of thousands of delayed voter registration applications to county election officials this week after discovering an error, sparking a scramble to process them weeks out from the midterms.” … “The TX secretary of state’s office told election officials last week that a problem with the Dept of Public Safety’s system had been uncovered: Certain incomplete voter registration applications that were missing some info were not sent on to election officials, potentially leaving Texans unregistered or with out-of-date voter files.” … “State officials started transmitting the records on Tues. It’s unclear how many voters were affected, but large counties have reported tens of thousands of registration applications and updates that election officials must process in the less than a month before early voting begins on Oct. 19. And more applications are sure to pour in ahead of the Oct. 5 deadline to register to vote in TX.” … Talarico: “Less than two weeks before the voter registration deadline, thousands of Texans are now in the dark about their voter registration status - even more aren’t aware of this error at all. This is what a broken, corrupt political system looks like: Texans follow the rules, register to vote before the deadline, and still risk losing their God-given right to the ballot box because their govt failed to do its job.” … “The Secretary of State said voters might be better off calling their local registrar’s office. Texas’ online system has reportedly had problems this year, with some registrations inaccurately showing up as inactive.” … New NYT/Siena poll is out on multiple key races: NH US Senate: 🟦Chris Pappas 50% 🟥John Sununu 45% NH Governor: 🟥Kelly Ayotte 52% 🟦Cinde Warmington 41% ME US Senate: 🟥Susan Collins 49% 🟦Troy Jackson 46% ME Governor: 🟦Hannah Pingree 47% 🟥Bobby Charles 34% ⬜️Rick Bennett 8% MI US Senate: 🟦Abdul El-Sayed 49% 🟥Mike Rogers 44% MI Governor: 🟦Jocelyn Benson 48% 🟥John James 43% … NBC: “Democrats are heading into the final stretch of the 2026 midterms with their largest lead yet in the race for Congress and Trump’s approval rating at a significant low. A 9 point advantage for Democrats when it comes to control of Congress is part of a steady deterioration of the political environment for Republicans.” … “The parties started the road to this November effectively tied in the weeks after Trump returned to office last year, but independents have gradually begun to prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress. And those voters have soured on Trump and his economic policies in particular.” … Politico: “The leaders of Senate Democrats’ flagship super PAC are ‘actively thinking’ about whether to wade into Kansas and other even redder states as the party looks to leverage an increasingly favorable environment ahead of Nov.” … JB Poersch, the president of Senate Majority PAC: “There’s some good arguments out in not just KS, in 4 or 5 other places. And we’re not just watching - we’re thinking about ways we might get involved if they stay earnestly competitive. We’re actively thinking about what role will we play at that point.” … Adam Hamilton, the Democratic nominee in the KS senate race, is out with a powerful new ad featuring Meischa, one of Sen. Roger Marshall’s former OB/GYN patients: “One evening I see lights. I open the door and it’s a police officer. They arrested me because I didn’t make a $50 payment to Roger Marshall. I was 8 months pregnant. I said, ‘please, do not handcuff me in front of my 2 year old daughter.’ Roger Marshall preyed on low-income families of KS.” … As a graphic on the screen showed that Marshall’s net worth is $10 million, Meischa concluded the ad by saying: “The health care system is broken, but not for Roger Marshall.” Reminder there is no Bulletin tomorrow because I’m off Saturdays. We will be attending our favorite fair tomorrow - the big annual Maine Organic Farmers Common Ground Fair. Farmers, artisans, crafters, artists, home cooks and bakers from all over Maine bring their animals, vegetables and products to present and sell. The key rule is that everything must be made in Maine, which is pretty cool. We are going to attend presentations on beekeeping, growing mushrooms, and native landscapes for homes. I will be back with the next Bulletin on Sunday night recapping all the news from this weekend. If you missed yesterday’s Bulletin, you can find it here. Meidas+ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. … CNN pollster Harry Enten: ““Trump has the highest ‘strongly disapprove’ rating going into a midterm election on record. 50% of Americans now say that they strongly disapprove of the job he’s doing. Trump’s average net approval in the key senate states is 19 points underwater. Look at the individual states. Trump is a drag on the Republican senate candidates.” … Politico: “Trump is not making it easy for Republicans in FL to keep their firewall. The same forces undercutting the GOP in other states - including Trump’s war in Iran and ensuing high gas prices, Hispanic voters turned off by his immigration surges and stubborn concerns over affordability - are hitting Floridians.” … “Now, some polling has shown statewide races inside the margin of error, including for governor and US Senate. Democratic congressional seats seen as flippable after mid-decade redistricting are a question mark while some Republicans have distanced themselves from an increasingly unpopular president.” … “Few top Republicans are publicly panicking about losing statewide seats, especially since Democrats have much less money and a history of electoral missteps. But Politico heard emerging concerns in interviews with nearly two dozen GOP politicians, operatives and consultants - many of whom acknowledged Republicans shouldn’t take a win in FL for granted.” … The Hill: “Trump will headline rallies in two red states next week as Republicans struggle in swing states across the country just over a month out from November’s midterms. Trump will head to Durant, OK, for a rally on Thursday before heading to Mobile, AL, for a campaign event on Friday evening.” … “The president won OK and AL by 34 points and 30 points, respectively, in 2024. Both states’ gubernatorial and Senate races are considered solidly Republican. Durant is located in OK’s 2nd Congressional District while Mobile falls in AL’s 1st District. Both districts are considered safe for the GOP.” … “Trump’s move to travel to the red states comes as a number of toss-up races move into the Democratic column ahead of the midterms. Earlier this week, the nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report shifted the KS and SC Senate races toward Democrats.” … This shows that Republican candidates in swing districts don’t want Trump anywhere near their races, despite the fact that RNC Chair Joe Gruters foolishly thought that was the best strategy for the party. … Politico: “The WH is in triage mode. 6 weeks until the midterm elections, admin officials are pulling policy levers they otherwise might not to help vulnerable Republicans in key congressional races. They’re weighing a 90-day ban on diesel exports, considering backpedaling on a plan to import foreign beef and giving candidates wiggle room to criticize a war with Iran.” … “Trump, never shy about attacking Republicans who disagree with him, has recently swallowed dissent so long as candidates criticize his policies and not him personally. Some campaigns are even giving the WH a heads up before staking out positions different from the president’s.” … “The WH’s latest posture represents a remarkable change for an admin that in its decision making has often put Trump’s priorities ahead of what would be politically advantageous to Republicans in tight elections. But inside the WH, a new reality - informed in part by polling - has taken hold as the admin grapples with far more competitive races than had been expected only a few months ago.” … CNN: “Trump and his allies inside and outside his admin are aiming to blanket polling places with an expanding network of party and federal election monitors this Nov, intensifying scrutiny of the nuts and bolts of voting as Trump hunts for what he claims, without evidence, is widespread cheating and fraud in US elections.” … Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) continues to chirp at Trump on social media since his policies are killing farmers in his state: “A suggestion for Trump: Since you are hearing from Big Oil about diesel prices and the problems with an embargo, tell Big Oil to reduce their prices for Americans and not charge the global price. This is an America First issue. WHY BE ENERGY INDEPENDENT IF WE AREN’T GOING TO USE IT WHEN WE NEED IT.” … Gas market analyst Patrick De Haan responded to Grassley’s post: “Diesel trades on a world market, just like corn. Farmers don’t sell cheaper to Americans, and refiners can’t either since they buy crude at global prices. Force a lower price and they’ll make less diesel. Less supply means higher prices, not lower.” ... Sen. Majority Leader John Thune was in GA today campaign for Mike Collins despite reports that the national party has basically given up on the race against Sen. Jon Ossoff. AJC reporter Patricia Murphy: “As John Thune looks to visibly boost Rep. Mike Collins in GA today, one Republican told me the reality is grim. ‘At this point, it’s about making the patient comfortable.’” … Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) defended Democratic AK senate nominee Mary Peltola after reports of rude behavior were published in a NYT story: “I do acknowledge that while she was here in her first term, she was not only thrown into a very challenging situation immediately running for campaign, but then to lose her husband in that airplane crash and to deal with all of that. That’s pressure that is hard for anybody to bear.” … Ukraine is ignoring Trump’s demand that they stop bombing Russian refineries. Ukrainian journalist Anton Gerashenko with an update this morning: “Ukrainians strikes hit on a Russian oil refinery, the Iskra missile defense plant. 15 Russian airports closed down in the process: Ulyanovsk: A strike hit the Iskra plant, part of the Almaz-Antey group. It manufactures defense electronics, including components for Kh-59 missiles. Perm and Rostov Region: Lukoil’s Perm refinery (capacity: 13 million tons/year) and the Novoshakhtinsk refinery were targeted. Voronezh: The Voronezhsintezkauchuk plant is on fire in Voronezh.” … MarketWatch: “The 30-year mortgage rate jumped 28 basis points in two days to 7.45% on Thursday, the highest level since April 2024. The 30-year rate jumped higher in response to the 10-year Treasury yield 5.220%, hitting its highest level since 2007. Bond investors are worried about inflation, particularly because of higher oil prices but also for a slew of other reasons.” … “Mortgage rates rise due to economic and political uncertainty. They don’t directly follow the Federal Reserve’s benchmark short-term interest rate, which was raised last week to a range of 3.75% to 4%. Instead, they tend to move in tandem with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note.” … CNBC: “The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is rising to levels not seen in years. But it’s not necessarily the outright level that’s most concerning for those on Wall Street, it’s the speed of the move. When rates climb at such a rapid pace, history tells them something bad tends to happen.” … The 10-year yield saw its most rapid one-day increase since April 7, 2025, on Wed, rising further on Thursday to top 5.17%, quite a move considering two weeks ago it was below 4.8% and at one point in Aug, it was below 4.6%. Economist John Roque said that every time rates have risen this quickly in the past, “something always breaks.” … “Roque pointed out on a chart of the 10-year Treasury yield going back the last 5 decades 16 instances where it experienced a rapid advance like it is now. During each and every move, some sort of financial calamity resulted.” … During his lavish black-tie state dinner with Chinese President Xi last night, Trump got up to give a brief (for him) speech: “If I could go off script just for a second—as a special treat in honor of President Xi, I’d like to invite everyone in the room to visit through that beautiful curtain in the back. It’s one year away from completion—the new ballroom that you’ve heard about. So in honor of you, you’ll be the first people to step foot on that. This is in honor of President Xi.” … Then this morning, Trump posted: “Very productive meeting with President Xi for both the USA and China. Tremendous things will be happening. Like almost everyone else, he seemed to like calling the poorly and inaccurately named Artificial Intelligence to a far more accurate and important name, SUPER INTELLIGENCE. That would be ‘SUPER!’ Everyone last night agreed, also.” … Xi will never call it that. He quite obviously thinks Trump is a clown. … Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) previewed the State Dinner on Fox: “I won’t be a bit surprised if he decides at one point to say, ‘President Xi, let’s go visit Panda Express and see what you think of their broccoli beef.’ I’d love to see that happen.” … These people are the worst of America. … David Perdue, US Ambassador to China, on Fox: Q - “Will Beijing stop in their aid and assistance to Iran after Trump’s meetings with Xi? Perdue: They assured us yesterday they are not doing that.” … US intelligence says they are. But once again, just like with Putin, Trump believes an autocrat over our own intel agencies and sides with countries helping Iran rebuild their military and target our troops. … CBS: “The US Army Reserve is examining whether it can provide the military’s Southern Command with police forces, medical personnel and other support units within the next 4 months. Though the message makes no reference to Cuba, the request is for continued military planning aimed at Cuba.” … “There is no indication in the document that any units have received deployment orders. But the planning comes as the Trump admin puts intense economic pressure on Cuba and urges the island nation to make political reforms.” … “The document says Army Reserve HQ is seeking feedback from subordinate commands on the possible availability of 6 types of formations that would fall under the authority of Southern Command. The units would ‘possibly be needed in 90-120 days,’ according to the message, which directs commands to provide feedback to Army Reserve HQ by Sept. 25.” … State Dept. spokesperson Tommy Pigott was asked about the report on CBS: Q -”The Army is requesting military planning aimed for Cuba. Is the US preparing for military action? Pigott: We're always going to guided by the national interest of the US. The president has a wide array of options.” … CNBC: “The CEO of credit union Family First is no longer with the company, days after she posted an allegedly AI-edited photo of her family with ‘Lake America’ sweatshirts.” … “A statement posted on the credit union’s website revealed that Jane Smith was no longer with Family First ‘effective immediately, with COO Jason Acosta serving as interim CEO. It was signed by Maurice Patterson, chairman of the Family First Credit Union board, and Acosta.” … "Family First did not state that if the reaction was the reason for Smith leaving, even though the credit union posted on Thursday that “we sincerely apologize for the concern, disappointment and pain this situation has caused our members and community.” … Family First is based in Michigan, a state that borders Canada. Smith on Sept. 11 had posted the photo on Facebook with the caption: “Like our sweatshirts? Not sure Canada will. Lol lol.” … In an earlier statement to ABC12 News, Family First had said it “unequivocally disapproves and rejects the content of the social media post involving our CEO, Jane Smith.” … Statement from TX Cattle Feeders Assn, KS Livestock Assn and OK Cattlemen’s Assn regarding the ongoing ICE operations in TX, OK and KS: “Our organizations respect the responsibility of federal agencies to enforce the law. At the same time, cattle producers, feedyards, dairies, livestock markets, processors, and other rural businesses depend on a stable workforce to care for animals, protect food safety, and keep the supply chains operating. Sudden workforce disruptions can create immediate animal-welfare, operational, and economic consequences that extend well beyond an individual business. These ICE operations are having a massive chilling effect on the legal, documented, skilled workers that put beef on the table and keep the cattle supply chain moving. Additionally, these types of disruptions will lead to higher beef prices for consumers. Reported impacts to our organizations throughout the past few days have been thousands of fed cattle slated for shipping to processors now delayed, resulting in millions of dollars in lost revenue and additional costs, and workforce disruptions at numerous supply chain chokepoints such as feedyards, dairies, processors, feed and grain companies, transportation hubs, and community services. These disruptions come at a time of enhanced focus and pressure on the cattle and beef supply chain. They are a costly and unnecessary impact to cattle producers already suffering from unwelcome political interference to both the markets as well as the physical supply chain. Frustratingly, the harm these actions cause to cattle producers last for days and weeks after such operations conclude. We urge federal officials to conduct enforcement actions in a lawful, orderly, and transparent manner; respect due process; and communicate clearly with affected employers and communities.” … These people overwhelmingly voted for Trump. Now they are upset because he’s deporting their workers. … And by the way, if Republican farmers and ranchers are saying that Trump’s deportation policy has caused food to be more expensive this year, why doesn’t the media ever ask Republicans about that? … Senate Judiciary Democrats: “Special Counsel Jack Smith will testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee next Tuesday.”