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Morning Digest: In Scandals v. Trump, Trump takes the L
Cory Mills just became the latest Trump-backed House Republican to fall
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Leading Off
FL-07
Former TV anchor Ryan Elijah decisively defeated Rep. Cory Mills, who had Donald Trump’s endorsement despite numerous scandals, by a 47-34 margin in Tuesday’s Republican primary for Florida’s 7th Congressional District.
Elijah will face former NASA chief of staff Bale Dalton, who had the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s endorsement. Dalton outpaced Navy veteran Marialana Kinter 45-36, while former Rep. Alan Grayson, who long ago morphed into a perennial candidate, took a distant third with 19%.
Elijah’s victory against Mills makes an already tough pickup opportunity for Democrats even tougher. The 7th District, based in the northern Orlando suburbs and part of the Daytona Beach area, favored Trump 56-43 in 2024 after supporting him 52-47 four years earlier.
But Dalton, who raised about $1.4 million through late July, could still put up a tough fight, and he could receive some high-powered support from the House Majority PAC, which has booked close to $4 million in ad time in the Orlando media market. (At least some of those reservations will likely go toward Democratic Rep. Darren Soto in the newly gerrymandered 9th District, however.)
Mills arrived in Congress four years ago after Republicans passed their last gerrymander, which transformed the 7th District from a Democratic-friendly constituency into a seat the GOP was favored to flip.
Those new lines led Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy to retire rather than seek a fourth term, and it quickly became clear that whoever won the eight-person Republican primary would replace her.
Mills, an Army veteran who co-founded a private security company, stood out in this packed race with ads bragging that his tear gas had been used on targets like “Hillary Clinton protesters” and “radical left protesters.”
Mills scored a convincing 38-24 victory over state Rep. Anthony Sabatini, a far-right agitator who was targeted by allies of then-House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, ahead of an easy general election win. The new congressman soon earned national notice the following spring when he announced he would support Trump over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the upcoming presidential primary.
But Mills, who was easily reelected in 2024, would soon become known for being at the center of a seemingly endless number of scandals.
Last year, the police in Washington, D.C., investigated Mills for allegedly assaulting a 27-year-old woman at his home. Separately, Lindsey Langston, a different former partner, successfully sought a restraining order last October, with the judge calling her a “victim of dating violence.”
The House Ethics Committee also revealed last year it was investigating allegations Mills may have illegally entered into contracts with the federal government, and it later began probing “allegations of sexual misconduct and/or dating violence.”
NOTUS further reported last May that five soldiers who served with Mills in Iraq disputed that he’d saved the lives of two troops who’d come under fire—acts for which he was awarded a Bronze Star.
But while Mills, who denied any wrongdoing, didn’t go through with his potential primary campaign against appointed Sen. Ashley Moody, he still sought a third term.
He got some backup in February of this year when Trump took to Truth Social to endorse the congressman, whom he called a “Successful Entrepreneur, and Brave U.S. Army Combat Veteran and Bronze Star recipient.” MAGA’s master remained in his corner even after MS Now reported last month that Trump’s own Justice Department was investigating Mills over an undisclosed matter.
For a time, though, it looked possible that Mills might not even be in office by the time of the primary. Axios reported in April that House members of both parties were frustrated by the unrelated allegations of misconduct surrounding Mills, Texas Republican Tony Gonzales, California Democrat Eric Swalwell, and Florida Democrat Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, and there was talk of expelling all four.
But that quadruple ejection never came to pass. Gonzales and Swalwell, who were both accused of sexual misconduct, wound up resigning on the same day.
Cherfilus-McCormick, who is under indictment for allegedly using stolen taxpayer funds to finance her victorious special election campaign in 2021, resigned later that month only to announce days later that she would run for her old seat. Cherfilus-McCormick’s comeback campaign, though, ended Tuesday when she took a distant fourth place in the 20th District.
Mills refused to go anywhere willingly, but his career will come to an end anyway following his loss. Mills’ defeat makes him the fourth House Republican to lose renomination in a year where seven incumbent Democrats have also lost their primaries.
Election Recaps
All race calls and estimates of the proportion of the vote that’s been tabulated come from the Associated Press unless otherwise noted. You can also check out our cheat-sheet that summarizes the outcomes in every key race, as well as any contests that remain uncalled.
Special Elections
PA State House (special) (59-40 Trump)
Pennsylvania Democrat Brandon Dukes flipped a conservative seat north of Pittsburgh that Republicans have held for over 30 years. Dukes’ victory in this contest, the final legislative special election anywhere in the nation before November, gave Democrats their 13th special election pickup since Donald Trump returned to office.
With almost all of the ballots tabulated, Dukes leads Republican Scott Timko 50.3 to 49.7, a margin of 88 votes. While the Associated Press has not called the race, Timko acknowledged to the news site TribLive that he’d fallen short on Tuesday and was preparing for his fall rematch with Dukes for a full two-year term.
Dukes’ win gives Democrats a 103-100 majority in the state House, a chamber they won with a one-seat majority in both 2022 and 2024. All 203 seats will be up in November.
Alaska
Election authorities have until Aug. 28 to tabulate mail-in ballots for Alaska’s top-four primary.
The four contenders with the most votes, regardless of party, advance to a fall general election that will be conducted using ranked-choice voting rules.
AK-Sen (55-41 Trump)
Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan and former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola are waiting to learn which two minor candidates will join them in the fall general election.
With an estimated 80% of the vote tabulated statewide, Peltola leads with 48%, and Sullivan is in second with 43%. Republican Dan J. Sullivan, a teacher whom the GOP argues is only running to confuse voters who might otherwise support incumbent Dan S. Sullivan, is in third with 2.4%. (Dan J. Sullivan has denied he’s running for any reason other than his unhappiness with his namesake.)
Democrat David Leslie and Republican Gerald Heikes each have 1.1% of the vote in the contest for the fourth and final spot, with Leslie holding a 23-vote lead as of Wednesday morning.
Outside groups with Republican ties ran ads to boost Leslie and other Democratic and Green Party candidates with the apparent hope that some voters in the general election would cast ballots for them while failing to rank Peltola. Democrats appear to be behind a similar effort to benefit Heikes.
AK-Gov (55-41 Trump)
Democrats Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and Tom Begich advanced to the general election, while seven Republicans are locked in a close race for the other two spots.
Kreiss-Tomkins, a former state representative, leads with 22%, while Begich, a former state senator, is just behind with 20%.
Both Democrats have discussed the possibility of one of them dropping out so their party can consolidate behind one contender for the general election. The deadline for candidates to remove their names from the general election ballot is Aug. 31.
Bernadette Wilson, a longtime Republican operative and former radio host, is the top Republican with 10.5% of the vote, but the AP has not projected if she’ll advance.
There’s a long line of Republicans behind Wilson:
Former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson: 8.4%
Former Attorney General Treg Taylor: 7.5%.
Former state Sen. Click Bishop: 7.1%.
Former Revenue Commissioner Adam Crum: 5.7%.
Former state Sen. Shelley Hughes: 5.6%.
Former Gov. Bill Walker, an independent, is in ninth place with just 4.4%.
AK-AL (top-four) (55-41 Trump)
Republican Rep. Nick Begich and independent Bill Hill are also waiting to learn which two candidates will move forward to the fall.
Begich, the nephew of the aforementioned Tom Begich, leads with 46%, while Hill, a commercial fisherman, is in second with 31%. Democrat Matt Schultz, a pastor who dropped out last month and endorsed Hill, is in third with 8%.
Several minor candidates are clustered close together in the contest for the fourth spot. Eric Hafner leads fellow Democrat John Williams 3.8 to 2.6, followed by Republican Clay Strickland at 2.4%.
AK Ballot (55-41 Trump)
Alaskans voted overwhelmingly to reintroduce campaign contribution limits for races for state and local office, but it will not take effect until after the fall general election. Donors this year will still be allowed to contribute unlimited amounts to candidates competing for governor, the legislature, and other posts.
California
CA-14 (special) (66-30 Harris)
State Sen. Aisha Wahab holds a 51-49 lead over fellow Democrat Melissa Hernandez, the president of the board of Bay Area Rapid Transit, with an estimated 62% of the vote tabulated. Alameda County, which makes up the entire 14th District, anticipates counting more ballots on Friday.
The two Democrats will face off again in the fall for a full two-year term.
Florida
FL-Sen (D) (56-43 Trump)
In an upset, state Rep. Angie Nixon defeated former National Security Council advisor Alex Vindman 56-44 and will take on Republican Sen. Ashley Moody for the final two years of Marco Rubio’s term.
Vindman, who rose to prominence during Trump’s first impeachment, raised more than $16 million versus less than $1 million for Nixon, who would be the state’s first Black senator. Limited polling has shown Moody ahead by around 8 to 10 points.
FL-Gov (D & R) (56-43 Trump)
Republican Rep. Byron Donalds will face off against former Rep. David Jolly, a Republican-turned-independent-turned Democrat, in the race to replace term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis after both men easily won their respective primaries.
As soon as both races were called, the Democratic Governors Association blasted out a recent survey from Hart Research showing Jolly ahead 46-45. While most other polling has been more favorable to Donalds, the release is a sign that national Democrats may invest in this contest.
FL-02 (R) (59-41 Trump)
Attorney Austin Rogers, a former general counsel for Sen. Rick Scott, won the GOP nod for north Florida’s open 2nd District by a 30-16 spread against wealthy businessman Keith Gross, his nearest opponent in the eight-way contest. An outside group ran ads calling attention to the fact that Gross, Rogers’ best-funded rival, is gay.
FL-06 (R) (65-35 Trump)
Rep. Randy Fine, Congress’ most infamous Islamophobe, turned back a challenge from social media influencer Dan Bilzerian, a notorious antisemite, by a wide margin in the Daytona Beach-based 6th District. However, Fine’s 57% of the vote was soft for an incumbent and could open the door for a stronger rival in two years’ time.
FL-09 (R) (58-41 Trump)
Dan Green, a Navy veteran and former Defense Department official during the first Trump administration, leads dairy farmer Ben Butler 25.4 to 24.4 with almost all of the votes tabulated, but the Associated Press has not called the race.
The Republican nominee will face Democratic Rep. Darren Soto in the 9th District, an Orlando area constituency the GOP radically transformed from a Democratic-leaning and predominantly Latino constituency into a conservative seat whose eligible voting population is majority-white.
FL-11 (R) (57-42 Trump)
Wealthy businessman Joe Strada holds a 33.5 to 33.0 advantage over Carey Baker, a former Lake County property appraiser backed by retiring Rep. Dan Webster. The Associated Press, which estimates 98% of the vote has been tabulated, has not called the GOP primary.
FL-12 (D) (57-42 Trump)
Former Hillsborough County Commissioner Kimberly Overman earned the right to take on GOP Rep. Gus Bilirakis in the Tampa-area 12th District after defeating Air Force veteran Darren McAuley by a 53-47 margin in the Democratic primary.
FL-14 (R) (55-44 Trump)
Former state Rep. Mike Beltran won the Republican nomination to take on Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor in a Tampa-area constituency the GOP dramatically overhauled as part of its new gerrymander.
Beltran, a wealthy ex-legislator who has called for the state to replace its six-week ban on abortions with a total ban, scored a decisive 45-30 victory over former state Rep. Kevin Steele. Both had self-funded their campaigns.
FL-16 (R) (56-43 Trump)
Former college development director Sydney Gruters, who is also the wife of Republican National Committee chair Joe Gruters, had no trouble winning the GOP nod in the open 16th District, which includes Tampa’s southern suburbs and the Bradenton area. She’ll go up against former Sarasota Mayor Kelly Kirschner, the Democratic nominee.
FL-19 (R) (65-35 Trump)
Wealthy businessman Jim Schwartzel scored a 29-22 victory over Catalina Lauf, a two-time congressional candidate in Illinois whom Trump endorsed Thursday, in a packed primary where four other candidates also began their political careers outside Florida.
Schwartzel, whose company owns several conservative radio and TV stations, used his ads to declare he was different from his main rivals because he’d “lived here his entire life.” Schwartzel is now on track to replace Rep. Byron Donalds, the GOP nominee for governor, as the congressman for the Cape Coral and Naples areas.
FL-20 (D) (68-31 Harris)
Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz defeated four intraparty opponents in the Democratic primary for the new 20th District, a plurality Black constituency in Broward County that includes just 2% of Wasserman Schultz’s constituents in the 25th District.
Wasserman Schultz, the only non-Black candidate in the race, took first with 45%. Former Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness was a distant second with 23%.
FL-22 (R) (55-44 Trump)
Businessman Casey Askar, the owner of numerous fast food franchises, snagged the Republican nomination 31-19 over crypto businessman Michael Carbonara in a busy race in the overhauled 22nd District. Askar will go up against businesswoman Pia Dandiya, a strong fundraiser who easily won the Democratic primary.
The revamped district bears virtually no resemblance to its predecessor with the same number, which had been located along the Atlantic Ocean in Palm Beach County. The new iteration, by contrast, moves inland, stretching all the way to the Gulf Coast across deep-red turf, including sparsely populated parts of the Everglades.
Republicans deliberately redrew the lines to make it much easier to flip, but Democrats have taken some succor in the fact that Joe Biden would have narrowly carried the district in 2020.
FL-23 (D) (56-43 Harris)
Rep. Lois Frankel turned back a challenge from retired attorney Victoria Doyle in a 75-23 landslide, making her the favorite to win an eighth term in the Palm Beach County-based 23rd District. Republicans largely left Frankel’s constituency unchanged under their new map.
FL-24 (D) (69-30 Harris)
Miami-Dade County Commissioner Oliver Gilbert narrowly defeated state Sen. Shev Jones 34-32 in the Democratic primary for the Miami-area 24th District. Gilbert had the endorsement of Rep. Frederica Wilson, who announced in May she would not seek reelection.
FL-25 (D & R) (54-45 Trump)
Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz turned aside union organizer Oliver Larkin, who’d been running with the support of the Democratic Socialists of America, 63-37. But Moskowitz will face a much tougher challenge in November against former Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer, who beat out former state Rep. George Moraitis 31-27 for the GOP nod.
That’s because Republicans redrew the South Florida-based 25th to make it considerably redder. It’s also now home to just half of Moskowitz’s current constituents. But as with the neighboring 22nd, it, too, narrowly would have gone for Biden six years ago.
FL-27 (D) (57-42 Trump)
Former local news anchor Eliott Rodriguez defeated attorney Robin Peguero 54-46 for the right to take on GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, the rare Florida Republican who’s potentially vulnerable in the House this fall. While Trump won this southern Miami constituency comfortably in 2024, he carried it by just a fraction of a point in 2020.
Orange County Mayor (nonpartisan race) (56-42 Harris)
Democrat Tiffany Moore Russell and Republican Chris Messina will compete in November’s officially nonpartisan general election to lead Orange County, home to Orlando and many of its suburbs, while former Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy narrowly failed to secure a berth in the second round.
Moore Russell, who serves as the county’s clerk of courts, led with 32%. Messina, a businessman and the only Republican in the race, edged out Murphy, a prominent centrist during her three terms in Congress, 28-26.
The winner will replace Mayor Jerry Demings, a Democrat who cannot seek a third term.
St. Petersburg Mayor (nonpartisan race) (59-39 Harris)
Charlie Crist begins the November general election as the frontrunner against St. Petersburg Mayor Ken Welch, a fellow Democrat who came close to being eliminated in the first round.
Crist, a former governor and later congressman, led with 35%. Welch edged out Republican Jim Large, a former city fire chief, 21-18 for second place.
Miami Ballot (50-49 Harris)
Miami voters approved a ballot measure to move elections for city-level offices like mayor and the City Council to even-numbered years starting in 2034.
Under Referendum 1, which passed 60-40, the next two mayor races will take place as scheduled in 2029 and 2033, respectively. The latter contest, however, will be for an abbreviated three-year term to realign the calendar.
Wyoming
WY-Sen (R) (72-26 Trump)
Rep. Harriet Hageman easily beat rancher Sam Mead, the nephew of former Gov. Matt Mead, 65-28 in the Republican primary for the Senate seat currently held by retiring incumbent Cynthia Lummis. Hageman, a prominent far-right politician who picked up Trump’s endorsement early in her campaign, is all but assured to win the general election in what’s long been the nation’s most Republican state.
WY-Gov (R) (72-26 Trump)
State Sen. Eric Barlow won the Republican nomination for the open governor’s office 45-30 against Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder, who had Trump and Rep. Harriet Hageman on her side.
Barlow, who, like outgoing Gov. Mark Gordon, has come into conflict with the state’s branch of the far-right Freedom Caucus, is now the fourth Republican to defeat Trump’s pick for governor this year.
WY-AL (R) (72-26 Trump)
Secretary of State Chuck Gray, a conspiracy theorist who has insisted the 2020 presidential election was “clearly rigged,” won a packed and expensive Republican primary for the statewide House seat that Rep. Harriet Hageman is giving up to run for the Senate.
Gray scored a 25-20 victory over conservative activist Steve Friess, the son of the late Republican megadonor Foster Friess, in what proved to be a rare high-profile win for a candidate backed by the state Freedom Caucus. Army veteran Kevin Christensen, who brought in little money, was just behind with 18%.
WY State Legislature
The state Freedom Caucus suffered what Cowboy State Daily calls a “Near-Total Massacre” in Republican primaries for the state legislature and statewide offices.
The far-right bloc, which was aiming to expand its majority in the state House into a two-thirds supermajority and take control of the state Senate, instead saw many of its incumbents lose renomination. WyoFile writes that 13 of its members and allies in the state House are trailing on Wednesday morning, while state Sen. Bob Ide also lost his primary.
The Freedom Caucus’ attempts to gain new seats in both chambers also largely fell apart, including in a contest that attracted notice well outside Wyoming.
State Sen. Ogden Driskill, who last week told the New York Times, “I hate the Freedom Caucus and how they do business,” holds a 52-48 lead over state House Speaker Chip Neiman, the first Freedom Caucus member to hold that position. While the AP has not called the race, Neiman told his supporters he’d lost.
The group’s candidates also largely came up empty in statewide races. The list of losers includes caucus chair Rachel Williams, a state representative whose campaign for secretary of state ended with a 46-33 loss against Converse County Commissioner Robert Short. Short spoke last month at a “Buck The Freedom Caucus” rally organized by a group called the “Rational Republicans.”
Poll Pile
AR-Sen: J.L. Partners:
Tom Cotton (R-inc): 51, Hallie Shoffner (D): 35.
MA-Sen (D): Suffolk University for the Boston Globe:
Ed Markey (inc): 52, Seth Moulton: 38.
April: 47-30 Markey.
MN-Sen: SurveyUSA for KSTP:
Peggy Flanagan (D): 46, Michele Tafoya (R): 41.
RI-Sen (D): Embold Research for Salve Regina University:
Jack Reed (inc): 61, Connor Burbridge: 12.
AR-Gov: Hendrix College for Talk Business & Politics:
Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R-inc): 45, Fredrick Love (D): 40, Colt Shelby (L): 7.
MA-Gov: UMass Amherst/YouGov:
Maura Healey (D-inc): 51, Brian Shortsleeve (R): 32.
Healey (D-inc): 53, Michael Minogue (R): 33.
MN-Gov: SurveyUSA:
Amy Klobuchar (D): 51, Lisa Demuth (R): 36.
Jan.: 49-34 Klobuchar.
RI-Gov (D): Embold:
Helena Foulkes: 48, Dan McKee (inc): 28.
RI-Gov (R): Embold:
Elaine Pelino: 37, Aaron Guckian: 17.
VA-05: Expedition Strategies for Tom Perriello:
John McGuire (R-inc): 47, Perriello (D): 44.
MN-AG: SurveyUSA:
Keith Ellison (D-inc): 43, Ron Schutz (R): 43.
Early Aug.: 44-36 Ellison.
MA Ballot: Replace party primaries with top-two primary: Yes: 51, No: 32.
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