Morning Digest, sponsored by FiftyPlusOne: Will Trump's endorsement save this candidate from Laura Loomer's wrath? MAGA diehards are deeply unhappy with their leader's pick for a swingy Arizona seat David Nir and Jeff Singer Oct 21 Gina Swoboda (right), the chair of the Arizona Republican Party and Trump-backed candidate for Congress (credit: Gina Swoboda X) Leading Off AZ-01 Gina Swoboda, the chair of the Arizona Republican Party, entered the race for the open 1st Congressional District with Donald Trump’s endorsement on Monday. But Swoboda, who is the first notable Republican to announce a bid for this extremely swingy seat, is about to find out whether this stamp of approval can keep her hardline critics at bay. “During her time as Chairwoman, she has a record of working against MAGA grassroots activists,” far-right influencer Laura Loomer tweeted earlier this month after chatter began that Swoboda could run for Congress. Loomer also accused Swoboda of “going on podcasts badmouthing” Turning Point USA, the Arizona-based organization led by the late Charlie Kirk. A message from our sponsor, FiftyPlusOne.news: Who’s ahead in the NJ and VA governors’ races? We’re a new website for aggregating public opinion polls. Building on past models of sites such as FiveThirtyEight and HuffPost Pollster, our goal is to be faster, more comprehensive, and more methodologically transparent than the competition. We adjust for factors like partisanship and pollster “house effects” that can lead noisy data to pollute other averages—and the conventional wisdom. For an unbiased look at the polls, check out our new site at FiftyPlusOne.news → The state branch of the nihilistic Freedom Caucus re-upped that message and added its own commentary about Swoboda, who served under Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs as an election official back when Hobbs was secretary of state. (Swoboda previously worked for Hobbs’ Republican predecessor.) “Gina Swoboda has undermined MAGA legislators and the MAGA agenda at every turn,” the group wrote. “This is what happens when you put a recent Hillary Clinton supporter in charge of the AZGOP. She’s undermined the nation’s preeminent school choice program and hurt Republicans for 2026. BAD FOR AZ!” The offensive didn’t deter Trump from granting Swoboda his “complete and total endorsement.” However, her enemies already notched one success earlier this year by ensuring that a different Trump endorsee in Arizona would have to share his blessing with a rival. Last year, after Trump endorsed businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson in the GOP primary to take on Hobbs, Loomer and the state Freedom Caucus responded with disgust, with Loomer griping that “[t]his vetting crisis needs to be addressed.” While Trump never walked away from Robson, he announced a few months later that he was also endorsing Rep. Andy Biggs, a prominent member of Congress’ Freedom Caucus. Late last month, Rep. David Schweikert also joined the race to take on Hobbs, a decision that set off an open-seat contest to succeed him in the 1st District. State Sen. Jake Hoffman, a Biggs ally and a founder of state Freedom Caucus, was none too happy with this development, and he knew just who to blame. Morning Digest: How will Trump feel as another swing-seat congressman leaves to run for governor? David Nir and Jeff Singer · Oct 1 Read full story “Gina Swoboda coaxed David Schweikert into exiting his re-election in an attempt to derail Andy Biggs’ incredible momentum,” Hoffman tweeted. “Schweikert was the only Republican capable of winning CD-1 and holding the congressional majority for President Trump. Thanks to Gina Swoboda’s scheme to get Schweikert out of the CD-1 race, the district is now largely considered to be unwinnable for any Republican other than a unicorn conservative with celebrity appeal.” Hoffman added, “Making the whole situation worse, we now know that Gina Swoboda’s entire scheme was designed to clear the CD-1 field for her own congressional run!” The lawmaker did not provide evidence to back up his allegations about Swoboda, who tells Axios she’ll remain state party chair until a successor is chosen in January. Several Democrats were already running to flip the 1st District before Schweikert bailed, and they’re hoping GOP infighting will give them an opening. Calculations from The Downballot show that Trump carried this constituency, which is based in northeastern Phoenix and Scottsdale, 51-48 last year; Joe Biden prevailed here by an even narrower 50-49 margin in 2020. This week, we’re marking 22 years since the launch of the Swing State Project—the site that became The Downballot—and we’re celebrating by offering 22% off our normal subscription price! If you’d like to help sustain us for many more years to come, we hope you’ll take advantage of this special offer today! The Downballot How Dems are fighting back—state by state Looking to see more “fightback” from Democrats? It’s happening all the time—at the state level. Joining us on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast is Gaby Goldstein, the founder of State Futures, a new organization devoted to organizing Democratic state lawmakers. Gaby explains how her group fills a major infrastructure gap by helping Democrats… Listen now 5 days ago · 1 like · David Nir and David Beard Senate MN-Sen Former NBA player Willie Burton is the latest Republican to rule out running for Minnesota’s open Senate seat, a development that leaves his party without a viable candidate more than eight months after Democratic Sen. Tina Smith unexpectedly announced her retirement. A couple of names, though, could still step forward for what would be a challenging race. State Rep. Jim Nash tells the Minnesota Star Tribune’s Sydney Kashiwagi he’ll decide by the end of the year, while Kashiwagi adds that real estate agent Kathleen Fowke is “being encouraged to run.” Fowke, whose loss in a close race for the state Senate last year kept the chamber in Democratic hands, did not respond to the reporter’s inquiries. For now, the GOP contest remains a duel between two flawed candidates: Adam Schwarze, a Navy SEAL veteran who has struggled to raise money, and far-right extremist Royce White, another one-time NBA player who badly lost a bid for the state’s other Senate seat last year. The August Democratic primary between Rep. Angie Craig and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan has attracted considerably more attention. Craig ended September with nearly $3 million in the bank, which was more than three times the $836,000 that Flanagan reported having available. The lieutenant governor, however, is hoping she can overcome her deficit by rallying progressive voters. NH-Sen Former Sen. John Sununu is “expected” to announce a bid for New Hampshire’s open Senate seat this week, reports Politico. Sununu, a Republican who held this seat for a single term from 2003 to 2009, recently said he’d decide by the end of the month. Governors ME-Gov Nirav Shah, who served as Maine’s health director during the COVID pandemic, announced Monday that he was joining the busy Democratic primary for governor. “The challenges facing our state require a leader with a different skill set to bring Mainers more than they have today,” said Shah, who left the Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention in 2023 to take a post with the federal CDC. “I’ve run organizations with tens of thousands of employees and managed multi-billion dollar budgets by being curious, asking tough questions, and demanding accountability.” Shah, who is the son of immigrants from India, would be the first person of color elected to lead the Pine Tree State if he were to win. Shah joins four other notable Democratic candidates in the June primary: Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, former state Senate President Troy Jackson, former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, and businessman Angus King III, who is the son of the senator of the same name. Republicans also have a packed primary to get through before what promises to be a closely watched general election. The presence of so many candidates in each primary makes it likely that ranked-choice voting will be used to determine one or both nominees, though it will take only a plurality to win the general election. NM-Gov Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull just announced for the third time that he’s seeking the Republican nomination for New Mexico’s open governorship, but political writer Joe Monahan is skeptical he’ll see the race through to the end. Monahan flags a line from the Albuquerque Journal’s writeup of Hull’s latest launch noting that the mayor, who is still the only notable Republican in the race, “has not decided whether he will seek another term as he also pursues his gubernatorial campaign.” While Monahan writes that Hull is free to run in the March mayoral election before competing in the June statewide primary, he concludes that such a move would be “completely unserious.” Conservative donors also don’t seem impressed by Hull, who first said he was running for governor in April only to then abruptly postpone his planned early June kickoff event until the end of July. The mayor raised just over $120,000 from April 8 through Oct. 6, and he finished the period with $200,000 in the bank. Hull, though, tried to inject new energy into his campaign last Monday when he debuted a video in which he began, “People have asked why I’ve waited to announce.” Those people presumably missed his earlier announcement video in July. Other Republicans are publicly or privately eyeing the contest to replace Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, who is termed out, though none have jumped in yet. The Democratic field formed months ago, and it’s already a high-dollar affair. Former U.S. Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland outraised Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman about $4 million to $2.5 million during this time, and she ended Oct. 6 with a $2.8 million to $1.5 million cash on hand advantage. A third Democrat, former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima, had just over $10,000 available. House AK-AL Pastor Matt Schultz on Monday became the first notable Democrat to announce a campaign against freshman Republican Rep. Nick Begich for Alaska’s sole U.S. House seat. Schultz, who serves a Presbyterian congregation in Anchorage, is the former cohost of a podcast that sought to demonstrate “how progressive clergy can serve their community.” The Anchorage Daily News writes that Schultz has also been active in efforts to raise the minimum wage and provide food to the needy. Begich won a spot in Congress last year on his third attempt by narrowly unseating Rep. Mary Peltola 51-49 as Donald Trump was carrying Alaska by a wide 55-41 margin. While Peltola is keeping her fellow Democrats in suspense about whether she’ll run for governor or Senate, she doesn’t appear to be interested in trying to return to the lower chamber. KY-04 Donald Trump is pushing former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein to challenge Rep. Thomas Massie in next year’s GOP primary, and Gallrein seems interested. “I hope Ed gets into the Race against Massie,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “Unlike ‘lightweight’ Massie, a totally ineffective LOSER who has failed us so badly, CAPTAIN ED GALLREIN IS A WINNER WHO WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN.” Gallrein, though, was not a winner in his first and only prior bid for office. Last year, he lost a close primary for a state Senate seat to Aaron Reed, who was also at one point a target of Trump’s ardor. After a meeting with Trump, though, Politico says the White House came away unimpressed with Reed. But Gallrein, said Trump, would have his “Complete and Total Endorsement” should he run against Massie. In response, Gallrein promised he would “make an announcement on what’s next soon!” MA-06 Democrat Drew Russo, who serves as personnel director for the city of Lynn, says he’s considering a bid for Massachusetts’ newly open 6th Congressional District. Russo ran for the state House in 2018 but lost the primary 48-37. NY-12 Assemblymember Alex Bores is the latest Democrat to enter the busy primary for New York’s open 12th District, a safely blue seat in Manhattan that Rep. Jerry Nadler is leaving behind. Bores, 34, first won office in 2022 and framed his bid along generational lines, telling the New York Times, “What we’re seeing right now is the president running a 21st-century version of authoritarianism while the Democrats run a 20th-century playbook.” Three other notable Democrats are already running: private equity firm fundraiser Alan Pardee, nonprofit executive Liam Elkind, and Assemblymember Micah Lasher, who is close to Nadler. Many others are also eyeing the race. Unlike in municipal elections, though, primaries for federal office in New York City are not conducted using ranked-choice voting. VA-02 Physician Nila Devanath announced on Tuesday that she was entering the Democratic primary to take on Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans in Virginia’s swingy 2nd District. “In our hospitals, I see every day what happens when Washington fails to act,” Devanath said as she launched her campaign. “Rep. Jen Kiggans and I both swore to care for our patients, but in Washington she’s turned her back on that promise. As a doctor, I can’t stand by while families suffer.” Devanath joins Navy Reserve veteran James Osyf and Marine veteran Michael Williamson in the June primary for a Virginia Beach-based constituency that’s one of the most competitive House seats in the country. Donald Trump carried the 2nd District by an extremely slender 49.5 to 49.3 margin four years after Joe Biden won it by a not-much-bigger 50-48 spread. Attorneys General VA-AG Democrat Jay Jones has launched what The Hill says is his first new ad since his text message scandal emerged a little more than two weeks ago, and he uses it to link Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares to Donald Trump. “This election, Jason Miyares is the only candidate that has Trump’s ‘complete and total endorsement,’” says the narrator. The audience then sees a clip from last year’s presidential campaign in which Trump proclaims, “Come on Jason, let’s go!” Poll Pile AK-Sen: Alaska Survey Research (D): Mary Peltola (D): 48, Dan Sullivan (R-inc): 46 (Aug.: 47-42 Sullivan). OH-Sen: Bowling Green State University/YouGov: Sherrod Brown (D): 49, Jon Husted (R-inc): 48 (April: 49-46 Husted). NJ-Gov: KAConsulting (R) for Change NJ (pro-Jack Ciattarelli): Mikie Sherrill (D): 47, Jack Ciattarelli (R): 44 (July: 47-42 Sherrill). OH-Gov: Bowling Green: Vivek Ramaswamy (R): 49, Tim Ryan (D): 47 (April: 51-44 Ramaswamy). OH-Gov: Bowling Green: Ramaswamy (R): 50, Amy Acton (D): 47 (April 50-45 Ramaswamy). OH-Gov (D): Bowling Green: Acton 50, Ryan 41 (April: 52-38 Acton). (Acton is currently running for governor, while Ryan is still considering.) VA-Gov: Co/efficient (R): Abigail Spanberger (D): 49, Winsome Earle-Sears (R): 44 (Sept.: 49-43 Spanberger). VA-LG: Co/efficient (R): Ghazala Hashmi (D): 47, John Reid (R): 42 (Aug.: 43-43 tie). VA-AG: Co/efficient (R): Jason Miyares (R-inc): 46, Jay Jones (D): 42 (Aug.: 45-44 Jones). AZ-06: Public Policy Polling (D) for House Majority PAC: JoAnna Mendoza (D): 42, Juan Ciscomani (R-inc): 41. WI-03: Public Policy Polling (D) for House Majority PAC: Rebecca Cooke (D): 44, Derrick Van Orden (R-inc): 42. New York, NY Mayor: Gotham Polling for AARP New York: Zohran Mamdani (D): 43, Andrew Cuomo (I): 29, Curtis Sliwa (R): 19. Thank you so much for being a paid subscriber to The Downballot! If you’d like to further support our work, you can donate on our ActBlue page.