I gotta admit, this graph is a bummer: It’s a chart reflecting paid subscriptions here at The Downballot. In mid-August, when we hit the one-year mark, you can see that we experienced a sizable dip. It was to be expected—some folks prefer not to renew, while others just don’t have up-to-date credit card information on file. And thanks to a special promotion we ran to celebrate our first anniversary, that figure rose again. But it’s since dropped further—and keeps on going down. It’s tough because we’re still only halfway where we need to be to achieve long-term financial sustainability, but that goal is only growing more distant. To get back to our recent peak and resume growing, we need 49 new subscribers. If you upgrade, you’ll not only be supporting independent journalism about elections at a time when we need it most. You’ll also unlock subscriber-only content (like our new analysis of Texas’ new congressional map) and features (including access to our private Discord server)—all for just $7 a month or $60 a year. Thank you so much, David Nir, Publisher Morning Digest: House Republican bullied out of Senate bid hasn't committed to reelection And the GOP is already looking to alternatives to defend an at-risk seat David Nir and Jeff Singer Sep 5 Republican Rep. Bill Huizenga of Michigan (credit: Bill Huizenga Facebook) Leading Off MI-04 The White House and Senate Republicans may have succeeded in pressuring Rep. Bill Huizenga not to run for the Senate earlier this summer, but their counterparts in the House have not yet persuaded him to seek reelection in Michigan's potentially competitive 4th District. Morning Digest: Trump just got two congressmen to give up their dreams of higher office David Nir and Jeff Singer · Jul 24 Read full story Semafor reports that House leaders have asked Huizenga "what they can do to entice him" to run again in the 4th, a southwestern Michigan constituency that Donald Trump carried by a relatively close 52-46 spread last year. The article, though, notes that leadership might not have much to offer him. While Huizenga is a vice chair on the House Financial Services Committee, he's unlikely to take the gavel anytime soon: His campaign to lead the influential panel late last year ended with a loss to Arkansas Rep. French Hill, who has less seniority. It would not be the last time that Huizenga had his dreams crushed by his own party. The eight-term congressman soon began looking to leave the House by running to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, but the National Republican Senatorial Committee worked overtime to keep him out of the race. Axios reported in April that the NRSC told donors that the only Michigan Republican they should contribute to was former Rep. Mike Rogers. Huizenga stubbornly continued to plan his statewide run. According to the Associated Press, he was "ready to launch" in late July and just needed a "blessing" from Trump. He didn't get it. The GOP's supreme master was determined to persuade House members in vulnerable seats to seek reelection rather than run for higher office, and he reportedly urged Huizenga to be a team player and defend the 4th District. The congressman announced that he'd decided "in consultation with President Trump" to stay out of the Senate race, but he conspicuously did not commit to running again. More than a month after his humiliating climbdown, Huizenga still hasn't revealed his plans—and Semafor reports that his fellow Republicans are now looking at alternative candidates. The outlet says that recruiters have spoken to two state senators about potentially running if the incumbent decides not to. While the piece did not identify those potential recruits, one local legislator hasn't been shy about making his interest known. State Sen. Roger Victory told the Detroit News in May that he would consider running for the House if Huizenga waged what still looked like a likely Senate campaign. Data from The Downballot shows that two other Republicans represent a portion of the 4th District in the state Senate: Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt, who is running for governor, and Thomas Albert. Democrats are hoping to put the 4th, which includes Battle Creek and Kalamazoo, in play no matter what Huizenga decides to do. The main candidates in next August's primary are state Sen. Sean McCann and attorney Jessica Swartz, who lost to Huizenga 55-43 last year. If you’re already a paid subscriber to The Downballot, you have our immense gratitude—and you can stop reading this message right here! If you haven’t yet upgraded your subscription, though, we hope you’ll consider supporting our work. You’ll unlock access to subscriber-only content and features, and you’ll also be helping independent media at a time of unprecedented attacks on our freedoms. Unlock subscriber-only features The Downballot Three huge retirements Labor Day weekend was anything but slow on the news front, with three giant retirements dominating the political headlines. On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, we examine all three, starting with longtime Democratic Rep. Jerry Nadler's selfless embrace of generational change. Things were less happy on the other side of the ledger, though, … Listen now a day ago · 2 likes · David Nir and David Beard Senate KY-Sen CNN commentator Scott Jennings informs Barrett Media that he still hasn't ruled out running to succeed his former boss, retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell. Kentucky's candidate filing deadline is Jan. 9, so Jennings has just over four more months to deliberate. Governors CA-Gov & Los Angeles, CA Mayor Billionaire developer Rick Caruso tells Bloomberg News that he'll decide "soon" if he'll run for governor of California or wage a second campaign for mayor of Los Angeles, though he didn't indicate which option he was leaning toward. Caruso lost the 2022 open-seat race for mayor to Karen Bass, a fellow Democrat, 55-45. While Bass currently doesn't face any serious opposition in her campaign for a second term, the packed race to succeed termed-out Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom has already turned negative. Just this week, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa launched what Politico reports is a $500,000 opening ad buy with almost nine months to go before the June top-two primary. Most of the commercial consists of Villaraigosa pledging to make the state less expensive to live in, but he also takes a shot at two other Democrats. "I'll veto any billion-dollar tax hike on working families, like the one they'll sign," Villaraigosa tells the audience as the audience sees images of former Rep. Katie Porter and former state Attorney General Xavier Becerra and the words "single-payer insurance." Villaraigosa launched his ad just a few weeks after businessman Stephen Cloobeck, who is also a Democrat, became the first candidate to take to the airwaves. But while Cloobeck's opening buy, which focused entirely on Donald Trump's ties to Jeffrey Epstein, didn't mention any of his rivals, the wealthy timeshare magnate was quite happy to trash the rest of the field in a TV interview last month. Morning Digest: A billionaire hoping to lead California just trashed nearly all his fellow Democrats David Nir and Jeff Singer · Aug 6 Read full story TN-Gov Sen. Marsha Blackburn has received the endorsement of the Club for Growth, the radical anti-tax group that's long been one of the biggest outside spenders in Republican primaries. Blackburn, who is running for Tennessee's open governorship, is the favorite to defeat Rep. John Rose for the GOP nomination. House CA-07 Elk Grove Vice Mayor Sergio Robles is considering challenging veteran Rep. Doris Matsui, a fellow Democrat, Politico reports. The news comes days after another Democrat, Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang, set up a fundraising committee for a potential campaign for California's 7th District. Politico relays that Elk Grove Mayor Bobbie Singh-Allen "was also rumored" to be interested, but she instead endorsed Matsui. The congresswoman, who has served since 2005 and turns 81 later this month, has said she'll run again. FL-19 Former North Carolina Rep. Madison Cawthorn is "preparing to run" for Congress again—albeit in a different state than the one he briefly represented. Cawthorn was discussed as a likely candidate for Florida's open 19th District back in February, but Axios' new report is the first sign we've seen in months that he's still planning a comeback. Cawthorn, a Republican who lost renomination in 2022, would join the race to succeed GOP Rep. Byron Donalds, who is giving up this safely red constituency in the Fort Myers area to run for governor. Cawthorn's sole term in the House was defined by various scandals, embarrassing videos, unhinged rhetoric, and run-ins with the law, but Donalds is open to giving him another chance. Morning Digest: Like snowbirds, pols from across the country are eyeing this Florida district David Nir and Jeff Singer · Feb 27 Read full story "He was 25 years old when he came to Congress," the congressman told Axios of his one-time colleague. "Everybody has an opportunity to grow and mature." Cawthorn, who is now 30, would compete in a busy primary that includes two other former elected officials from states other than Florida. The field features Chris Collins, who served both as a U.S. representative from New York and as an inmate in federal prison, as well as former Illinois state Sen. Jim Oberweis, a dairy magnate whose many failed campaigns back in the Land of Lincoln long ago earned him the nickname "Milk Dud." FL-25 Businessman Michael Carbonara this week became the first notable Republican to challenge Democratic Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz in Florida's 25th District. Carbonara, who is active in the cryptocurrency world, tells Florida he'll run whether or not the GOP passes a new gerrymander that weakens Wasserman Schultz. Morning Digest: Florida Republicans prepare to re-gerrymander their map, too David Nir and Jeff Singer · Aug 8 Read full story The current incarnation of the 25th District, which includes South Florida communities like Pembroke Pines and Hollywood, is a longtime Democratic bastion that, like the state as a whole, has moved hard to the right in recent years. Kamala Harris carried this constituency 52-47, a big comedown from Joe Biden's 60-40 performance in 2020. IL-08 Former Rep. Melissa Bean is considering making a late entry into the busy Democratic primary for Illinois' open 8th District, Politico's Shia Kapos reports. A source tells Kapos that Bean, who lost reelection during the 2010 red wave, will decide "in the next week or two" whether she'll run to replace Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, a fellow Democrat who is running for the Senate. Candidates have until Nov. 3 to turn in signatures to qualify for the March 17 primary ballot. Bean first won office in 2004 in a previous version of the 8th by ousting longtime GOP Rep. Phil Crane, and she quickly established herself as a vocal centrist. Bean, though, narrowly lost her bid for a fourth term to unheralded tea partier Joe Walsh in one of the biggest upsets of the cycle. Walsh's tenure was brief, however: Democratic map-makers redrew the district to make it safely blue, leading to his ouster after just one term. A pronounced shift to the left throughout the Chicago suburbs has kept the district in Democratic hands ever since (even Walsh became a Democrat this year). Bean, however, never sought to return to office. Instead, says Kapos, she's spent the time since her defeat working in the private sector, including at the financial giant JPMorgan Chase. NY-12 New York Assemblymember Micah Lasher set up a fundraising committee on Thursday for a potential campaign to succeed retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler, a fellow Democrat whom Lasher once worked for. Political observers have long believed that Lasher is Nadler's preferred successor in the Manhattan-based 12th District, though the congressman has yet to make an endorsement. Former Rep. Carolyn Maloney, meanwhile, confirmed Wednesday that she's interested in a comeback after badly losing to Nadler in an incumbent vs. incumbent primary in 2022. While Nadler, 78, said Monday that he was retiring because he recognized the "necessity for generational change in the party," the 79-year-old Maloney sees things differently. "We don't need someone who needs an intro to Congress 101," she told a radio show hosted by conservatives John Catsimatidis and Rita Cosby. TN-05 Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder announced Thursday that he would seek the Democratic nomination to oppose Tennessee Rep. Andy Ogles, a scandal-plagued Republican who is one of the far right's loudest voices in Congress. Molder, who launched his campaign by accusing the incumbent of "chasing national headlines for the wrong reasons instead of local headlines for the right reasons," joins Nashville Metro Councilor Mike Cortese in next August's primary. Last year, Donald Trump carried the 5th District, which the GOP gerrymandered after the 2020 census, by a wide 58-40 margin. Democrats, though, are hoping that Ogles has become toxic enough at home to cost him a seat that Republicans tried to ensure would remain secure no matter what. Support The Downballot Texas Democratic Rep. Julie Johnson tells the Dallas Morning News that, if the courts uphold the Texas GOP's new gerrymander, she's "going to run in Congressional District 33" in the Dallas area. Johnson had previously said that she would not oppose Rep. Marc Veasey, who represents the current seat with that number, if he runs here. Now, however, in her recent interview with reporter Gromer Jeffers, she no longer appears to be ruling out the possibility. Morning Digest: The GOP's new gerrymander prompts a massive scramble in Texas David Nir and Jeff Singer · Aug 25 Read full story Johnson, whose current 32nd District became all but unwinnable for Democrats under the new map, said last month that she might challenge Republican Rep. Beth Van Duyne in the revamped 24th District. Johnson's new comments, though, indicate that she's decided not to campaign for a constituency that Donald Trump would have carried 57-41 last year. Veasey, whose Tarrant County base was excised from the 33rd, still has yet to decide what he'll do. The congressman told Jeffers that he'll wait for the new map to go before the courts (a hearing is scheduled to start on Oct. 1) and "see what happens." Veasey did not close the door on seeking the revamped 32nd, which would have favored Trump 58-40, though he acknowledged it would be difficult to win. He also once again stated that "all options are on the table," including leaving the House to seek a different office. Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett, meanwhile, says she's still deliberating between running for the new 30th District, which shares a number with her current Dallas-based constituency, and the 33rd, which includes her home. The revamped 30th includes some of Tarrant County, which Jeffers notes could give Veasey an opening should Crockett head elsewhere. Former state Rep. Domingo Garcia also expressed interest this week in seeking the 33rd, and he may not be the only Dallas Democrat eyeing that race. Jeffers mentions state Rep. Rafael Anchia and former state Rep. Victoria Neave as possible candidates, though neither appears to have spoken publicly about the contest. Secretaries of State GA-Sos Gabriel Sterling announced Thursday that he would run to succeed Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a fellow Republican and Sterling's former boss, in next year's election to be Georgia's top election official. Sterling's launch is the strongest sign yet that Raffensperger, who opposed Donald Trump's efforts to steal Georgia's electoral votes from Joe Biden in 2020, will not seek a third term. The secretary of state, who has made numerous enemies within the GOP, has talked about running for Senate or governor. Sterling was serving as Raffensperger's chief operating officer in 2020 when Trump and his fellow election deniers spread conspiracy theories about his loss in the state. Sterling joined in the campaign to rebut Trump's lies and defend the state's electoral system, including from people who threatened election workers. "Someone's going to get hurt. Someone's going to get killed," he said that December. "Mr. President, you have not condemned these actions or this language." Sterling has remained close to Raffensperger, who won reelection in 2022 months after he turned aside a Trump-backed primary challenge. He remained COO until two weeks ago, when he stepped down to prepare his campaign. Sterling faces two notable opponents in next May's Republican primary: state Rep. Tim Fleming, a former chief of staff to Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, and businessman Kelvin King. King is married to Janelle King, a far-right extremist who serves on the state's Election Board and has come into conflict with Raffensperger's office. Candidates need to win a majority in the primary to avert a runoff. Democrats are awaiting their first major candidate as they try to take back a post that Republicans have held since the 2006 elections, though several names have been mentioned. Editor's note: In yesterday's Morning Digest, we incorrectly stated that Scott Colom would be Mississippi's first Black senator. He would be the state's first Black senator since Reconstruction. Thank you so much for being a free subscriber to The Downballot! To support our work, we’d be grateful if you’d become a paid subscriber.