You saw, of course, that Donald Trump reacted to last week’s poor monthly jobs report by firing the person responsible for its creation. It’s an appalling move by a flailing autocrat that heralds the end of trustworthy numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Other government agencies are sure to follow. That makes it all the more critical that we identify and elevate sources of data we can trust. That’s been our stock in trade at The Downballot since day one. Whenever we use someone else’s data, we rigorously investigate to make sure it can be relied on. And when you use our data, you don’t have to take our word that it’s accurate. We don’t just profess our commitment to transparency—we live it. When, for instance, you use our calculations of the 2024 presidential election results by congressional district, you can actually see all of our calculations, spreadsheet by spreadsheet. Every figure, every formula—it’s all there for you to double-check. It goes without saying that the private sector can’t replace an entity like the BLS, but we all have to do our part to keep reliable data flowing. We’d therefore be extremely grateful if you’d support our efforts to produce accurate, open-source data that helps Americans understand our elections by upgrading to a paid subscription today. Thank you, The Downballot team Morning Digest: Why Trumpworld disdains this failed football coach turned Senate hopefulGeorgia's governor has been selling Derek Dooley hard. MAGA isn't buying.
Leading OffGA-SenFormer University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley said Monday that he was joining the Republican primary to face Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff, an announcement that comes after weeks of scrutiny about intervention by his most important ally, his loyalty to Donald Trump, and even his record on the gridiron. Dooley, who is the son of late University of Georgia coach Vince Dooley, launched his campaign with the not-so-quiet support of Gov. Brian Kemp, a childhood friend. Kemp, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes, has been encouraging his donors and allies to help Dooley. That persuasion campaign has been anything but gentle: The AJC said last week that Kemp's side is informing would-be dissidents that their failure to fall in line "could come at a steep political cost." One candidate, state Insurance Commissioner John King, even dropped out of the race last month after Kemp, according to the paper, said he'd back Dooley. Trump's team, though, isn't quite so easy to push around. NOTUS' Reese Gorman reported last week that Kemp's heavy-handed intercession has gone over so poorly that, according to one source, he has "all but guarantee[d] Trump goes against Dooley." That same person said of Dooley that "no one in Trump's operation had anything against him, but Kemp pushing him like this could really sour him with them." Dooley's intraparty critics, though, are doing what they can to give Trump reason to personally dislike him. Rep. Mike Collins, who joined fellow Rep. Buddy Carter in the primary last week, greeted his newest rival with a video accusing Dooley of doing nothing to help Trump in any of his campaigns. "When President Trump took on the establishment in 2016, Derek Dooley just stayed in the locker room," says the narrator. "He didn't even vote." After faulting Dooley for remaining absent in 2020 as well, the narrator claims that he was likewise AWOL following last year's assassination attempt against Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania. "[W]hen Trump rose to his feet in defiant triumph, rallying all patriotic Americans, Derek Dooley was nowhere to be found. Not a word, not a penny of support, didn't lift a finger to help Donald Trump and the America First agenda win the fight." The offensive came just weeks after the conservative Washington Examiner reported that Dooley didn't cast a ballot during Trump's campaigns in 2016, when he was living in Texas, and 2020, when he was registered in New York. The article also noted that campaign finance records show that, while Dooley has donated to Kemp, he's never provided any financial support to Trump. Dooley, for his part, highlighted his coaching background and football heritage in his launch video, but these may not be as much of an asset as he might hope. Dooley's tenure coaching the University of Tennessee Volunteers, which has a long-standing rivalry with UGA, saw him match a century-old record that Vols fans hoped would forever remain a historic relic. After getting hired in 2010, Dooley was fired just two years later when the team racked up the most consecutive losses in school history since 1906. Dooley has since served as a member of the coaching staff for several college and NFL teams, but he has yet to land another position as head coach. The new candidate's athletic lineage could give him an opening with voters, though as both of his parents demonstrated, the Dooley name only carries so much weight in politics. Dooley's mother, Barbara Dooley, found this out the hard way in 2002 when she lost a tight Republican primary for the 12th Congressional District, which at the time was home to UGA's campus in Athens. (Collins today represents the school as the congressman from the 10th District). Vince Dooley, for his part, flirted with running for the Senate in 1986 and for governor in 1990—both times as a Democrat—but he never placed his name on the ballot. He did, though, lend his support in 2022 to Republican Senate nominee Herschel Walker, who won the 1980 Heisman Trophy as UGA's star running back. "There is need in this state for somebody like Herschel, he will make a great United States senator," the elder Dooley said in a commercial that began airing just days before he died at the age of 90. Walker continued airing the ad, a decision he said he made after Barbara Dooley urged him to do so, but he still went on to lose to Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock. David Nir here, publisher of The Downballot! We love bringing you the Morning Digest each day, but it takes a ton of work. If you’d like to help make sure we can keep publishing each day—and support independent media—we’d be extremely grateful if you’d become a paid subscriber. Thank you so much! Election NightSpecial ElectionsAfter a six-week summer break, special elections are back on the calendar this week, with a pair of races for Democratic-held seats on the East Coast. Delaware's 20th House District near Rehoboth Beach hosted an extremely close election last year, won by Democrat Stell Parker Selby by just a 51-49 margin, even though Kamala Harris prevailed 54-45 on the same night, according to calculations from The Downballot. That makes it a rare district to move to the left in 2024, however, since Joe Biden carried it by a 53-46 spread. Parker Selby resigned in June following a stroke in December that caused her to miss this year's legislative session, but her opponent from last time, former high school principal Nikki Miller, is back for a second try. She faces Alonna Berry, a charter school founder. Democrats have spent heavily to keep this seat in their column. Meanwhile, in Rhode Island's 4th Senate District, Democrat Stefano Famiglietti, a town councilman in North Providence, is squaring off against Republican Alexander Asermely, a personal injury attorney. The seat became vacant in April after the death of longtime Senate President Dominick Ruggerio. Ruggerio, a conservative Democrat, hadn't faced a contested general election in years. However, after a progressive primary challenger held him to a 55-45 win in 2020, Democrats in the legislature stripped left-leaning areas out of the district during the last round of redistricting. That helped Ruggerio easily prevail in a primary rematch, but it also made the district several points redder. In addition, like most of the country, it moved to the right last year: After supporting Biden 58-40, it went for Harris by a smaller 55-44 margin. Famigletti, however, has enjoyed an edge in spending. Both elections will fill seats in chambers where Democrats are in firm control. Delaware Democrats hold a 26-14 edge in the 41-member House, while their counterparts in Rhode Island enjoy an overwhelming 33-4 supermajority in the 38-person Senate. Detroit, MI MayorDetroit voters will winnow their field of mayoral candidates from nine down to two in Tuesday's officially nonpartisan primary for this open seat. The top two contenders will face off again in the Nov. 4 general election to succeed incumbent Mike Duggan, a former Democrat who decided to run for governor as an independent rather than seek reelection. Detroit, unlike some municipalities, does not allow candidates to avoid a second round of voting by winning a majority of the vote in the first round. Polls show City Council President Mary Sheffield far ahead of her rivals, but there's more uncertainty about who will claim the second spot. The only survey we've seen in the last month was a mid-July poll from the Michigan-based firm Target Insyght that found Sheffield taking 34% as former Council President Saunteel Jenkins edged out pastor Solomon Kinloch 17-16. City Councilman Fred Durhal and former police chief James Craig, who is the lone notable Republican running, were far back with 6% each, while three other candidates trailed still further. FOX 2 reported weeks later that Kinloch pleaded guilty to assaulting his then-wife in 1993. We have not seen any subsequent polling. WashingtonThe Evergreen State is hosting officially nonpartisan top-two primaries on Tuesday, with several races in and around Seattle taking center stage. Voters will be deciding which candidates advance to the November general election rather than electing anyone outright. The most high-profile contest is the race for mayor of Seattle, where Democratic incumbent Bruce Harrell faces seven opponents.
A recent survey from the Democratic pollster Change Research for the Northwest Progressive Institute found there isn't much of a question who will move forward: Harrell and progressive organizer Katie Wilson, a fellow Democrat, secured 33% and 31%, with no one else breaking 3%. Observers, though, will still be watching Tuesday's results for clues about how vulnerable Harrell might be going into the general election. It's a similar situation in the race for executive in King County, an open seat that has jurisdiction over Seattle and many nearby communities. A pair of Democrats on the County Council, Claudia Balducci and Girmay Zahilay, are poised to advance over several unheralded opponents, and they're each hoping to leave the first round as the frontrunner. Another high-profile contest is the race for Seattle city attorney, where Republican incumbent Ann Davison is hoping to repeat her surprise 2021 victory in this dark blue city. All three of her opponents are positioning themselves as liberal alternatives to Davison, explains Bolts. Change Research's mayoral poll also found Davison ahead with 31% as Erika Evans, a former prosecutor, took second with 18%. Attorney Rory O'Sullivan and public defender Nathan Rouse were well behind with 5% and 2%, respectively. One question that will be decided on Tuesday, though, is whether Seattle voters will renew the city's "Democracy Voucher" program for another decade. If a majority votes "yes" on Proposition 1, Emerald City residents will continue to receive four $25 vouchers that they can donate to candidates who agree to participate in the program. SenateIA-SenA third Democratic lawmaker could soon join Iowa's Senate race: State Rep. Josh Turek plans to enter the contest this month, according to three current and former legislators who all spoke on the record to the Des Moines Register. Turek, who won two gold medals and a bronze as a wheelchair basketball player at the Paralympics, did not comment about his intentions. He first entered the legislature by winning a red-leaning district in the Council Bluffs area in 2022 by just six votes following a recount. The level of interest among Democrats in taking on Sen. Joni Ernst is unusually high, given Iowa's Republican lean. Already seeking the nod are state Rep. J.D. Scholten, state Sen. Zach Wahls, and military veteran Nathan Sage. OH-SenFormer Sen. Sherrod Brown, who's been targeted for a comeback bid by Democratic recruiters, is interviewing campaign managers for a Senate bid, according to three unnamed sources who spoke with Axios. Brown said earlier this year that he was interested in running for either governor or the Senate. TX-SenRepublican Sen. John Cornyn has received an endorsement from former Gov. Rick Perry, whose tenure from 2000 to 2015 makes him the longest-serving governor in Texas history. It remains to be seen, however, whether there are any primary voters or influential GOP figures who still care what Perry, whose subsequent career as Donald Trump's secretary of energy ended in 2019, has to say about this race. GovernorsCA-Gov & Los Angeles, CA MayorBillionaire developer Rick Caruso has said little in months about his plans for next year, but Politico reports he remains interested in either running for governor of California or seeking a rematch against Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass. Caruso, though, doesn't appear to be in any rush to make up his mind: An unnamed ally tells the publication that "in terms of a plan, it's going to be a while." He may, however, have answered one important question about his potential campaign. While the developer, who changed his party affiliation several times before running for mayor as a Democrat in 2022, told Puck back in February he might wage his next race as an independent, he seems to have drifted back to the Democratic fold. Politico says that stopping by his office has become a "rite of passage" for any potential Democratic presidential candidates when they visit L.A. CT-GovRepublican state Sen. Ryan Fazio, who's been considering a bid against Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont, has set up an exploratory committee, though he cautioned CT Insider that "it's not the big shebang." While a few other Republicans are also in various non-shebang modes, none have yet actually launched campaigns. Lamont hasn't either, though he sounds inclined to seek a third term. The one candidate who has formally entered the race is Democratic state Rep. Josh Elliott. FL-GovFormer Democratic Rep. Al Lawson, who lost his seat in Congress in 2022 after Republicans tore up his district and made it much redder, says he's considering a bid for governor next year and plans to decide by the end of November. According to an email the 76-year-old Lawson recently sent to supporters that was obtained by NBC's Matt Dixon, the ex-congressman is unhappy that the only major Democratic candidate running so far is former Rep. David Jolly, who used to be a Republican. "I think it sad that we are asking a republican to run as a Democrat for governor," Lawson wrote. "They African-American community all over the state is not happy with this decision." HouseIL-07Labor leader Anthony Driver announced Monday that he was entering the already packed Democratic primary for Illinois' 7th Congressional District, where longtime Rep. Danny Davis recently said he would not seek reelection. Politico's Shia Kapos writes that Driver, who is the SEIU Illinois State Council's director, successfully advocated for Chicago's $15 minimum wage and its civilian-led police oversight board. Former Chicago Alderman Walter Burnett, however, tells Crain's Chicago Business he's decided not to wage his own campaign. MO Redistricting, NH RedistrictingTwo more Republican states could join Texas in attempting to push through mid-decade gerrymanders that would target Democratic-held seats in the House. In Missouri, Senate President Pro Tem Cindy O'Laughlin told KSSZ that it's "likely" that Republicans would pursue a remap, which has reportedly been pushed by Donald Trump. O'Laughlin was open about the purely partisan aims of such an effort, saying that "it's alarming to think of Congress with just a very small majority and perhaps losing that." Separately, in New Hampshire, Republican state Sen. Dan Innis says he's introducing legislation that would redraw the Granite State's congressional map, presumably to make one of its two districts redder. It's not clear, though, whether this proposal has any juice behind it, and it may chiefly be aimed at bolstering Innis' profile as he runs for the state's open U.S. Senate seat. Late last month, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis also said he wanted to revisit his state's map, but there've been no further developments since. Mayors & County LeadersJackson County, MO ExecutiveA Missouri judge has set Sept. 30 as the date for the recall election against Jackson County Executive Frank White. Last month, the county legislature scheduled the contest for Aug. 26, but administrators sued because they believed it would be "almost impossible" to hold a vote so quickly. Recall organizers in the Kansas City area say they want White, a Democrat who was an All-Star second baseman for the Royals before entering politics, removed from office because of rising property taxes. The executive, though, has argued that "dark money groups" are trying to punish him for successfully opposing a ballot measure last year that would have extended a sales tax to fund stadiums for the Royals and the Kansas City Chiefs. Voters next month will be presented with a "yes" or "no" question asking whether they want to remove White. If the "yes" side prevails, it would be up to the county legislature to choose a new executive, who would have to be a Democrat. The post will again be on the ballot next year for a full four-year term, whether or not White is recalled. St. Paul, MN MayorState Rep. Kaohly Her announced Monday that she'd oppose St. Paul Mayor Melvin Carter, a fellow Democrat whom she previously worked for, in the Nov. 4 race to lead Minnesota's capital city. Her told Axios that, while she has only three months to campaign, she believes voters are open to an alternative to Carter. "Our city is not doing well," said the challenger, who was Carter's policy director from 2018 to 2021. "I've had challenges getting return phone calls from City Hall in the seven years I've been a state legislator, and I have been told that that is not an uncommon story." But Her, who kept her role as policy advisor for several years after she was elected to the legislature in 2018, still spoke well of the incumbent. She told the Minnesota Star Tribune in a separate interview, "I consider him my friend. He is my mentor." Her is the first notable candidate to oppose Carter and, with only a week to go before the Aug. 12 filing deadline, she'll probably be the last. Anyone who files will compete on a single nonpartisan ballot, and ranked-choice rules will be used if no one takes a majority in the first round of tabulations. Her's campaign comes at a time when the contest to lead neighboring Minneapolis is attracting outsized attention. Democratic Mayor Jacob Frey faces an intra-party challenge from state Sen. Omar Fateh in a race that will also use ranked-choice rules. |
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.