The lead item in today’s Morning Digest, which was written by our managing editor, Jeff Singer, is one of my favorite pieces of writing that I’ve had the privilege of editing this year. Jeff truly captured every facet of Nancy Mace’s endless cycle of cynical reinventions in vivid detail. In many ways, her story is the story of the GOP writ large over the last decade, just extra. But today’s newsletter is also filled with a ton of redistricting news from the nation’s two biggest states, California and Texas. Yet whether it’s a deep-dive profile of an overweening politician, or the broader political ramifications of gerrymandering, we really do it all here at The Downballot. If you appreciate not just the depth but the breadth of our coverage, then I hope you’ll consider supporting our unique work by becoming a paid subscriber today. We ask for just $7 a month or $60 a year: Thank you, David Nir, publisher Morning Digest: Nancy Mace’s favorite person in the world launches bid for governorAnd she wants to take her shitshow from Capitol Hill to the state capital
Leading OffSC-GovSouth Carolina Rep. Nancy Mace, the self-described "proud transphobe" and one of the most infamous members of the House, announced Monday morning that she would enter the Republican primary for the open governorship. Mace, who in 1999 became the first woman to graduate as a cadet from Charleston's famed Citadel military academy, emerged on the political scene in 2014 when she took a distant fifth place in the GOP primary against Sen. Lindsey Graham. Few people looking at her measly 6% of the vote, though, would have guessed at the kind of future Mace had ahead of her. In the ensuing decade, she would emerge in state and national politics as a political chameleon who's eagerly transformed herself based on whatever she perceives to be the prevailing mood, with one single overarching goal: promoting the career of Nancy Mace. The congresswoman, who was elected to represent much of the state's coastline in 2020 by narrowly unseating Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham, has morphed from an early supporter of Donald Trump into an adversary, then back to an enthusiastic MAGA acolyte. Trump hired Mace in the summer of 2015 to aid his fledgling campaign to win South Carolina's early presidential primary, a move that came at a time when few promising Republicans wanted anything to do with the former reality TV star. It was something of a surprise, then, when she took her old boss to task for fomenting the Jan. 6 riots immediately after she was sworn in to represent the 1st Congressional District. "I can't condone the rhetoric from yesterday, where people died and all the violence," she told The State newspaper, one day after she'd been forced to barricade her office. She went even further in her very first floor speech soon after, saying of Trump, "I hold him accountable for the events that transpired." Mace's former staffers say that wasn't even her most dramatic reaction to Jan. 6. Unnamed ex-employees told the Washington Post last year that, as the violence unfolded, she suggested she be filmed getting punched in the face as she confronted rioters, footage she supposedly said would make her one of the nation's most prominent anti-Trump Republicans. Mace's former team said they dissuaded their boss, whom they say described herself as a "never Trumper" that day, from putting herself at risk. The congresswoman did not confirm or deny the account when the paper requested a comment, saying only, "What you write doesn't pass for real journalism." Despite her harsh words following Jan. 6, Mace refused to join the small group of Republicans that voted to impeach Trump, and she stopped trying to pick fights with him not long afterward. Six months after the riot, she told The Atlantic, "I just want to be done with that." Trump, though, wasn't done with the congresswoman he labeled a "terrible person" and "grandstanding loser." In 2022, he endorsed Katie Arrington, a former state representative who had lost to Cunningham in a huge 2018 upset, as she sought to oust Mace in the GOP primary. The incumbent responded by framing the primary as anything other than a fight between her and Trump. Mace reacted to Arrington's launch by posting a video shot in Manhattan across the street from Trump Tower where, after professing her loyalty to Trump, she predicted Arrington would again cost the GOP this seat. That message was released just days after Mace earned the endorsement of former Gov. Nikki Haley, who likewise had a volatile relationship with Trump over the last decade. Mace also enjoyed the backing of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, whose political network also provided her with financial support. In the end, Mace turned back Arrington 53-45, and she cruised to victory in the general election for a constituency that the GOP-dominated legislature had just gerrymandered to ensure it would remain in Republican hands. The congresswoman faced another expensive primary in 2024 against former state cabinet official Catherine Templeton, but the battle lines were completely unrecognizable compared to two years earlier. Mace spent 2023 refashioning herself as a prominent Trump defender on cable news. Later that year, she went on to stun just about everyone when she joined Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz, whom she'd previously blasted as a "fraud", in voting to end McCarthy's brief speakership along with six other Republican renegades. McCarthy made Mace one of his targets during his much-hyped "revenge tour" that followed his ouster, but heavy spending by his allied super PAC didn't go very far. Mace, who endorsed Trump over Haley, got her party's master to return the favor for her contest against Templeton. The incumbent triumphed 57-30 before easily winning a third and final term. Mace prevailed 58-42 in the general election as Trump, according to calculations by The Downballot, carried the 1st District 56-43. Mace's round-trip on Trump was by no means her only political metamorphosis. As recently as 2023, Mace described herself as "pro-transgender rights," but the following year, in response to Delaware Democrat Sarah McBride's election as the nation's first trans member of Congress, she refashioned herself as an unabashed transphobe. According to a tally by Newsweek, Mace tweeted about bathrooms 326 times during a 72-hour period not long after McBride's victory, and she's repeatedly used anti-trans slurs in her official capacity. The late Virginia Democrat Gerry Connolly called her out during a February committee hearing, but Mace reacted by repeating the slur three times, adding, "I don't really care." Mace has also been the subject of many other unflattering stories. To take just one example, Wired ran a headline in May reading, "Nancy Mace's Former Staff Claim She Had Them Create Burner Accounts to Promote Her." Mace is now seeking to replace Republican Gov. Henry McMaster, who cannot run again because of term limits, as the leader of this conservative state. First, though, she'll face off against several opponents in next year's primary—including one she began attacking months before she even launched her campaign. That rival is Attorney General Alan Wilson, whom Mace, according to a February story in the Charleston Post & Courier, said she would leave "in a body bag" in the primary. Mace generated national attention that same month when she claimed on the floor of the House that the attorney general had failed to prosecute four men she accused of rape. Wilson responded by calling the claim "categorically false" and said that he hadn't even previously heard about the case, but that did not stop Mace from continuing to level attacks at him. (Mace is now being sued for defamation by one of the men she accused.) The GOP field also includes Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, state Sen. Josh Kimbrell, and Rep. Ralph Norman. South Carolina requires primary candidates to win a majority of the vote next June to avert a runoff, something that's unlikely to happen in a field this large. Wriggly politicians who try to change their stripes count on the traditional media to have a short memory. At The Downballot, our memories are very, very long—as the item above vividly shows. If you appreciate the deep knowledge we bring to our coverage of overlooked elections, we hope you’ll consider becoming a paid subscriber. SenateFL-Sen, FL-GovDemocratic state Rep. Angie Nixon is floating the possibility of running for a couple of different offices, telling Florida Politics, "I like Congress. I like governor. Maybe Senate. I dunno. Wherever the people want me." The publication concludes, however, that the former is more likely, with one unnamed consultant saying, "Angie said she is going to be announcing for Senate extremely soon." NC-SenThe first nonpartisan poll of North Carolina's open Senate race, courtesy of Emerson College, finds former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper defeating RNC chair Michael Whatley 47-41. A Republican firm, Victory Research, previously found the two tied at 44 apiece. HouseCA RedistrictingCalifornia Gov. Gavin Newsom indicated at a Thursday press conference that he'd like to hold a special election in November to ask voters to adopt a new congressional map as part of an effort to counter the freshly gerrymandered districts that Texas Republicans are planning to pass. Newsom declared that his state would not " sit back any longer in a position—the fetal position, in a position of weakness—when, in fact, California can demonstrably advance strength." Instead, he said that "maps will be made available in a transparent way" and voters would be asked "to consider the new circumstances" and "new realities" created by Donald Trump's efforts to "rig the game." He also stressed that his proposal would not eliminate the state's independent redistricting commission, saying his ultimate goal is to "go back in 2030 to original form with our independent redistricting intact." Newsom further promised to share additional details over "the next week or two."
CA-45Former Republican Rep. Michelle Steel, who lost a nailbiter to Democrat Derek Tran last year, tells Fox News that she won't seek a comeback next year. Steel had filed paperwork with the FEC shortly after her 653-vote defeat in November, but as we always stress, such filings do not guarantee a campaign. With Steel out, though, it's an open question as to which Republicans might step up in her place. Orange County Supervisor Janet Nguyen was mentioned as a possible contender in December, but she has yet to say anything, possibly because she's been waiting to see whether Steel might run again. Tran will likely face a competitive race for reelection in California's 45th District, a slice of western Orange County that voted for Kamala Harris by a skinny 49-48 margin. He's already raised massive sums for his next campaign, wrapping up the second quarter with more than $1 million in his war chest. FL-06Palm Coast City Councilor Charles Gambaro announced Thursday evening that he was launching a primary campaign against Florida Rep. Randy Fine, who antagonized fellow Republicans before, during, and after his victory in April's special election for Florida's 6th District. Gambaro, a brigadier general in the Army Reserve, argued that voters in this Daytona Beach-based constituency should be served by "a leader that actually lives in the 6th Congressional District." Fine was a state senator from Brevard County, which is located entirely in GOP Rep. Mike Haridopolos' neighboring 8th District, when he decided to campaign for Congress earlier this year. Donald Trump's endorsement allowed Fine to breeze through his primary with only minimal opposition, but his 57-43 general election victory represented a huge underperformance from Trump's 65-35 margin last year. Fine has long showcased a talent for drawing negative attention, including last week when Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene rebuked him for, among other things, responding to a photo of Palestinians urgently seeking food in Gaza by writing, "Release the hostages. Until then, starve away." There is no indication, though, that Trump has soured on the Florida congressman he helped elevate to the House.
NJ-07Attorney Vale Mendoza, who would be the second trans member of Congress, has joined the exceptionally crowded Democratic primary for New Jersey's swingy 7th Congressional District. Mendoza, who would also be the Garden State's first LGBQT representative on Capitol Hill, is one of half a dozen Democrats seeking to oust second-term Republican Rep. Tom Kean, several of whom have already raised sizable sums. PA-07Lehigh County Controller Mark Pinsley has entered the race for Pennsylvania's competitive 7th Congressional District, making him the fourth notable Democrat looking to take on first-term Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie. Pinsley has won two terms as controller, but he's fared less well in seeking other offices: He's lost two races for state Senate and lost the Democratic nomination for state auditor last year by a 65-35 margin. SC-05State Sen. Wes Climer just became the first Republican to enter the race for South Carolina's newly open 5th Congressional District, which far-right Rep. Ralph Norman is leaving behind to pursue a bid for governor. Climer won a seat in the legislature in 2016 by unseating a longtime GOP incumbent, Wes Hayes, who had been in office a quarter century. Climer received major assistance in that Wes-on-Wes battle both from the archconservative Club for Growth and a super PAC connected to then-Gov. Nikki Haley. The lawmaker returned the favor by endorsing Haley's failed presidential bid, however, which could cause him grief in next year's primary. Climer insisted to reporters at his campaign kickoff that he's "a strong supporter of the president" and would "fight hard for the 'America First' agenda." TX RedistrictingDemocrats in the Texas House left the state on Sunday and traveled to Illinois in an effort to block Republicans from further gerrymandering the state's congressional map by denying the chamber a quorum to conduct business. Though Republicans hold comfortable majorities in both houses of the legislature, Texas' constitution is unusual in requiring that two-thirds of lawmakers be present to achieve a quorum, amounting to 100 in the House and 21 in the Senate. (Only Indiana, Oregon, and Tennessee have similar rules, though some other states have heightened requirements for bills on specific topics.) As a consequence, without at least 12 members of the 62-strong House Democratic caucus in attendance for the ongoing special session called by Gov. Gregg Abbott last month, Republicans can't pass their new map, which would target five Democratic-held congressional districts by making them redder. It's not clear precisely how many Democrats have made the trip; at a press conference on Sunday night outside of Chicago, the caucus' chair, Rep. Gene Wu, declined to say. The New York Times also reported that some Democrats were headed to New York and others to Massachusetts. Wherever they may be, the question now for Democrats is how long they can hold out. Following the last time Democrats tried to break quorum in 2021—an unsuccessful attempt to thwart a GOP voter suppression bill—Republicans pushed through a new rule in the House imposing a fine of $500 per day on each lawmaker who goes "absent without leave for the purpose of impeding the action of the House." That same rule also forbids members from using their campaign accounts to pay for any fines. The Texas Tribune reported last week that "[d]eep-pocketed donors within the party appear ready to cover these expenses," with unnamed sources saying that "their legal teams have found a way to disburse the funds," though they declined to explain how. Absent legislators are further subject to civil arrest, a procedure designed to compel members to show up at the state capitol. It's for that reason that Democrats chose to leave Texas and head to states with friendly governments, since the powers of the chamber's sergeant at arms end at the state line. In a statement released on Sunday night, Abbott threatened to begin proceedings to expel from the House any Democrats who don't return by Monday afternoon. Citing an opinion by state Attorney General Ken Paxton, Abbott said that the question of whether any lawmakers had "abandoned" their offices—and could therefore have their seats declared vacant—would ultimately fall to the courts. However, he also noted that he'd have the power to fill any resulting vacancies. Abbott further warned that Democrats and their supporters could face criminal liability under state bribery laws regarding any funds they might receive or give to help pay their fines. And by departing their home state, Democratic lawmakers are also leaving behind their lives and their livelihoods. Service in the Texas legislature is a part-time job that pays just $600 a month. Members therefore routinely hold other jobs—for instance, Wu, the caucus leader, is a practicing attorney. How long they can leave their workplaces behind will be an ongoing concern. While quorum-busting in Texas goes back to the 1870s, as the Tribune has detailed, it's rarely succeeded in actually stopping legislation from getting passed. A key reason is that, even though special sessions are limited to a maximum of 30 days, the governor can keep calling new sessions after the current one concludes on Aug. 20. However, time is not entirely on the GOP's side, either. Texas' March 3 primary is one of the earliest in the nation, and its candidate filing period begins on Nov. 8. Republicans could seek to delay those dates, but any legislation to alter the political calendar would also require a quorum. In our item on Illinois' 2nd Congressional District in our last Digest, we incorrectly stated that former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.'s team would start collecting signatures to qualify for the ballot on Sunday, Aug. 3. He announced an event for Sunday. By law, campaigns are permitted to start gathering signatures on Tuesday, Aug. 5. Thank you so much for being a free subscriber to The Downballot! To support our work, we’d be grateful if you’d become a paid subscriber. |
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