POLITICO Nightly: This pivotal county is still standing by Trump

 

By Charlie Mahtesian Presented by the Coalition to Empower Our Future A man wearing a MAGA hat waits to hear Donald Trump speak at the South Texas International airport on Nov. 19, 2023 in Edinburg, Texas. | Michael Gonzalez/Getty Images AS STARR COUNTY GOES — If you’re not yet familiar with Starr County, Texas — and we don’t expect you would be — remember the name. Since President Donald Trump’s November victory, it’s emerged as a key reference point in the debate over the future of the Democratic Party, a potent example of MAGA’s advance among Latino and working class voters. The historically blue border county flipped to Trump in 2024, but that description does a disservice to the stunning nature of what happened. Until last year, Starr County hadn’t voted for a Republican presidential nominee in over a century. As recently as 2016, Hillary Clinton destroyed Trump there, 79 percent to 19 percent. For comparative purposes, that’s roughly the same margin that Trump lost by in Brooklyn that year. While Clinton romped across heavily Hispanic South Texas, by 2020 the cracks in the Democratic wall were beginning to show. The Rio Grande Valley, along the border with Mexico, shifted unmistakably toward Trump in 2020 — and Joe Biden only managed a 5-point victory in 97 percent Hispanic Starr County. Four years later, the dam broke. Aside from Starr County, Trump turned most of the border red. Swings of the magnitude seen in Starr County rarely happen over a short period. And if you examine the voting data over a broader time frame, the numbers are even more stark. Starr County residents went from delivering an 86-13 landslide victory to Barack Obama in 2012 — the highest vote share of any county in Texas — to giving Trump a very comfortable 58-42 win in 2024. Although Republicans have prioritized South Texas in recent years, that kind of voting behavior isn’t a function of better GOP messaging or organizing. It’s a sign of Trump’s appeal with Latino working class voters, but also of something much deeper and more emotional — as in, anger, deep alienation or disgust with the ancestral party. It hardly needs to be said that the Democratic dream of a Blue Texas is a mirage as long South Texas is spiraling away. POLITICO’s David Siders spent some time in Starr County recently to better understand the political tectonic changes and what he found should be disturbing to Democrats as the party plots its path back from the wilderness. He notes that Trump’s victory there in November was motivated largely by frustration with rising prices and Biden’s immigration policies, among other factors. While prices at the grocery store aren’t any better now than before, there’s little sign of buyer’s remorse. Though few said they voted for Trump because of his plans to shrink the size of the federal bureaucracy, many welcomed the slashing cuts anyway. The left-leaning voters Siders spoke with were hopeful the effects of the government cutbacks might eventually increase opposition to Trump, but they weren’t convinced the message is breaking through. “In fact,” Siders writes, “the only thing about Trump’s first month in office that I found near universal opposition to was the administration’s detainment, briefly, of migrants at Guantánamo Bay. But not because of any sympathy for the migrants. It’s because the Texas land commissioner, Dawn Buckingham, has offered Trump 1,400 acres of land just outside Rio Grande City, the county seat, to build a deportation facility. Republicans and even some Democrats want the economic benefits associated with new construction — and a new federal operation — to be located in Starr County, instead.” Starr County isn’t a national bellwether — it’s more like an indicator species that offers clues to the atmospheric conditions of the political ecosystem. And what it’s indicating at the moment is that national Democrats have a long way to go in winning back the voters they’re losing to Trump. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmahtesian@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PoliticoCharlie .   A message from the Coalition to Empower Our Future: With young people experiencing elevated levels of anxiety, hopelessness and loneliness, the Coalition to Empower our Future is seeking to convene a conversation to better understand the many contributing factors surrounding youth mental health. Scientific studies and mental health professionals have found youth wellbeing is a complex and multifaceted issue with several contributing factors. By convening a wide array of perspectives and expertise, the coalition hopes to identify meaningful and comprehensive solutions. Learn more.   What'd I Miss? ****TARIFFS***** — Trump says Canada, Mexico tariffs take effect Tuesday: President Donald Trump reaffirmed plans to impose new 25 percent tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian goods beginning Tuesday, likely triggering a trade war with the United States’ biggest trading partners. There is “no room left for Mexico or for Canada” to make a deal to avoid the tariffs, Trump told reporters at the White House. “They’re all set. They go into effect tomorrow.” Trump also reaffirmed that he intends to raise his most recent tariff on all Chinese goods to 20 percent, from 10 percent currently. ****RFK JR, HHS, MEASLES!***** — Top HHS spokesperson quits after clashing with RFK Jr.: The top spokesperson at the Health and Human Services Department has abruptly quit after clashing with Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and his close aides over their management of the agency amid a growing measles outbreak, two people familiar with the matter told POLITICO. Thomas Corry announced on Monday that he had resigned “effective immediately,” just two weeks after joining the department as its assistant secretary for public affairs. ****MUSK, UKRAINE & PROPAGANDA!**** — Musk accuses Zelenskyy of pushing ‘forever war’ with Russia : Elon Musk took a fresh shot at Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday, accusing the embattled Ukrainian president of wanting a “forever war” with Russia . Musk, a close adviser of President Donald Trump who leads his efforts to pare down the federal government, often weighs in on U.S. foreign policy and European politics via his social media platform, X. In the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Musk was hailed as one of Ukraine’s most important allies after donating thousands of Starlink satellite internet system terminals to replace communications services destroyed by Moscow’s forces. But that changed after he began spreading what Kyiv said was pro-Russian propaganda. — Melania Trump lobbies Congress to combat 'revenge porn': On the eve of her husband’s address to a joint session of Congress, Melania Trump made her second-term debut on Capitol Hill, using her first public comments on policy since October 2019 to take on deep fake “revenge porn.” The first lady sat down on Monday with members of Congress, advocates and teenage victims to push the House to advance the “TAKE IT DOWN Act,” which would criminalize “non-consensual intimate content” — otherwise known as “revenge porn” — including compromising images generated by AI. ***WATCH FOR MAGA GOP BUDGET**** — Spending bill text expected over weekend: GOP congressional leaders are aiming to release text of a government funding stopgap this weekend , according to lawmakers and other Republicans involved in the ongoing talks. Republican leaders said in private meetings on Monday that they’re aiming to release the text Saturday, according to three people familiar with the conversations. The release, they added, could slip into Sunday. House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole told a small group of reporters later Monday that “sometime this weekend” would likely be the case, given the need to put the bill on the House floor next week ahead of the March 14 deadline.   A message from the Coalition to Empower Our Future:     AROUND THE WORLD French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou leaves the first cabinet meeting of the new government on Jan. 3, 2025 at the Elysee Palace in Paris. | Thomas Padilla/AP INDECENT PROPOSAL — French Prime Minister François Bayrou on Monday declared the alliance with the U.S. is seriously wounded and called President Donald Trump’s attitude toward Ukraine “an indecency. ” “On Friday evening, a staggering scene unfolded, marked by brutality and a desire to humiliate, the aim of which was to threaten Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy into surrendering to the demands of his aggressor,” Bayrou said in a speech to the National Assembly, referring to Trump’s verbal assault on Zelenskyy at the White House after weeks of growing alignment with Russian President Vladimir Putin. While Bayrou has limited weight on foreign affairs, which are under the president's remit, his words contrast with carefully calibrated comments from Emmanuel Macron and other leaders, who are trying to salvage what’s left of the transatlantic alliance. SOUND OF MUSIC — Austria’s President Alexander van der Bellen swore in the country’s new three-party government Monday , ending five months of political deadlock that followed the far right’s election victory last September. Conservative People’s Party (ÖVP) leader Christian Stocker will be the prime minister, with the center-left Social Democrats (SPÖ) and the liberal Neos party also part of the coalition government. “Good things come to those who wait,” Van der Bellen said at the beginning of his speech, as he thanked the parties for “stepping out of their comfort zones for the good of the whole country” to form the coalition. With this alliance, the centrist parties prevented the far-right, pro-Russian Freedom Party (FPÖ) from coming to power despite it winning the most votes in the election. TESLA TROUBLES — Elon Musk's political meddling in Europe is cratering Tesla's sales — and that's putting at risk its revenue from selling credits to other automakers looking to avoid paying penalties for not meeting European Union emissions targets. European automakers face fines should they fail to meet this year's carbon dioxide reduction goals, but those selling too many CO2-emitting cars can dodge the fee by pooling with a company doing better than the EU demands. That's been a lucrative earner for all-electric Tesla. Since its founding, the electric vehicle company has brought in billions from such schemes. In 2024, it made $2.76 billion on emissions deals, a 54 percent year-over-year increase, its annual financial earnings report shows. That revenue stream is now in jeopardy as consumers across Europe shun the brand after Musk, a key adviser to United States President Donald Trump, threw his support behind far-right parties and made incendiary remarks about Germany letting go of its Nazi past.   A message from the Coalition to Empower Our Future: To move closer toward meaningful solutions, we must work collaboratively to better understand youth mental health and wellbeing in its full complexity. Economic hardships and poverty, overuse of devices and social media, food and housing insecurity, fear of violence, social isolation, bullying and more should all be taken into account. The Coalition to Empower our Future is working to bring together mental health experts, parents, youth, nonprofit representatives, industry leaders, educators, policymakers and others in a coordinated and urgent manner. Without a fulsome approach, we may lose an opportunity for fully informed solutions that address all the factors impacting young people’s mental health. Identifying well-informed solutions can also help support and equip parents and communities with the tools and resources needed to enhance support for young people. We must meet this moment for our children and their futures. Watch our new ad and join us.   Nightly Number $100 billion The additional amount Taiwanese chip giant TSMC announced Monday that it will invest in the U.S. for three new advanced semiconductor manufacturing plants, a new infusion on top of the manufacturer’s existing plans. RADAR SWEEP CONNECTION SEEKERS — Gen-Z is, by many metrics, the unhappiest generation alive. This has been largely studied — members of Gen-Z are lonelier, more anxious and more depressed than others. So, the magazine Dazed asked many young people, through an extensive survey, what actually would make them happy . The answer, overwhelmingly, was more community. It’s somewhat ironic, given that most of Gen-Z is hanging out with each other much less than previous generations. But as broad swaths of young people sit at home, they say they want to build stronger, more durable communities. Halima Jibril reports. Parting Image On this date in 1984: President Ronald Reagan addresses the Conservative Political Action Conference. “Fellow citizens, fellow conservatives, our time has come again,” Reagan said after renewing his pledge of support for proposed Constitutional amendments on abortion and permitting prayer in public schools. | Scott Stewart/AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   Follow us

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