POLITICO Nightly: Putin’s political theater

 

BY GABRIEL GAVIN Presented by the Financial Services Forum According to exit polls, Vladimir Putin was handed a fifth presidential term with around 88 percent of the vote, giving the man who has ruled Russia since the turn of the millennium another six years in office. | Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP FOREGONE CONCLUSION — Russia’s weekend-long presidential election was an act of political theater in every way. Among the long lines of people waiting at polling stations across the country were eager voters dressed up in costumes as Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin, Emperor Nicholas II or even as Barbie. Then there were the fictional results themselves — the outcome was a foregone conclusion. According to exit polls, Vladimir Putin was handed a fifth presidential term with around 88 percent of the vote, giving the man who has ruled Russia since the turn of the millennium another six years in office. The question no longer is whether he can keep his grip on power, but what happens when he finally gives it up. By any measure, this election was neither free nor fair. Serious contenders for the country’s top job were shut out of the contest altogether — like anti-war politician Boris Nadezhdin, who was barred from standing for office. Others were jailed or murdered for standing against the regime, like opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who was killed in prison a month before the vote. Meanwhile, those living in illegally occupied regions of Ukraine including Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Crimea went to cast their ballots in an uncompetitive election effectively at gunpoint under the watchful eye of Russian soldiers. A small number of incredibly brave protesters, who threw dye into ballot boxes or set off fireworks to highlight the absurdity of the spectacle, were immediately detained in cities across Russia. The key figure in the minds of the Kremlin’s inner circle was never how many people would support him — that had been taken care of — but the turnout. Why would anyone bother to get out of bed or cut short their weekend at the dacha to vote in a contest that everybody already knew Putin would win? The illusion of democracy, however, required that large numbers take part to maintain the idea that Russians had made a decision about their future and actively chose the only option made available to them. According to official figures — which are impossible to independently verify — more than 70 percent of eligible voters took part, higher than in any of Putin’s previous elections. Whether that number had been decided in advance or not, monumental efforts were made to give the sham vote an air of legitimacy. To inflate the vote, raffle prizes were on offer by local authorities, state employees were ordered to go to the polling stations and one city in Siberia even promised voters would be able to take a photo with a cardboard cutout of American political commentator Tucker Carlson . The officially sanctioned opposition was unceremoniously knocked down, with none of the procession of Communist politicians and nobodies who had been allowed to stand against the president attracting more than around 4 percent of the vote. Putin’s message was clear: there is no alternative to me. For the world, the implication of his victory seems to be that he will double down on his disastrous invasion of Ukraine, and any hopes that Moscow could take a different course are a very long way off. For Russia, however, the consequences are murkier, aside from the inevitable continued crackdown against domestic dissent. Putin, who has been in power longer than some of the soldiers fighting his war have been alive, has to maintain the appearance that he is there forever. The moment the door opens to the possibility that he might step down, or die in office, it will unleash a wave of infighting and palace intrigue as rivals fight to position themselves to succeed him. Retirement isn’t usually an option for tyrants — but in Putin’s case, it’s unthinkable. The system he has created relies on him to control it; it’s not in place because Russians genuinely want it. This weekend’s election was supposed to paint a picture of Russia as a stable state where politics cannot change. Yet it was just last year that Wagner warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin looked set to take the capital in an all-out coup. And the war only deepens the divide between security officials, army chiefs and the billionaire business elites that Putin has so far managed to keep behind him. All that pressure is building, waiting to explode again, whether Putin himself admits it or not. Only now it’s almost certain he won’t be alive to see it. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at ggavin@politico.eu or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @GabrielCSGavin .   A message from the Financial Services Forum: Americans, especially low- and moderate-income consumers, will bear the brunt of Basel III Endgame. The new requirements would make borrowing more expensive, making it harder for Americans to take out a mortgage, buy a car, or secure a small business loan. Learn more.   WHAT'D I MISS? — Trump can’t post $464M bond in New York civil case, lawyers say: Donald Trump told an appellate court here Monday that he can’t obtain a bond for the full amount of the civil fraud judgment against him — more than $450 million, including interest — raising the possibility that the state attorney general’s office could begin to seize his assets unless the court agrees to halt the judgment while the former president appeals the verdict. Trump’s lawyers said in a court filing that “ongoing diligent efforts have proven that a bond in the judgment’s full amount is a ‘practical impossibility,’” adding that those efforts “have included approaching about 30 surety companies through 4 separate brokers.” — Supreme Court lets ‘insurrectionist’ ban against New Mexico official stand: The Supreme Court has turned away a convicted member of the Jan. 6 mob who was barred from public office in New Mexico under the Constitution’s “insurrection clause” seeking to reverse his disqualification. The justices on Monday denied Couy Griffin’s petition to consider his effort to overturn the rulings of courts in New Mexico that deemed him ineligible from holding office there ever again. Griffin, who was convicted in 2022 of misdemeanor offenses related to his role in the breach of Capitol grounds, was a member of the Otero County board of commissioners until courts ordered him removed later that year. The former Cowboys for Trump founder was an early and vocal advocate of discredited theories about election fraud. — Major Rafah operation would be ‘mistake,’ Biden told Netanyahu: President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke Monday for the first time in a month , during which Biden seemingly offered his strongest warnings against an all-out Israeli attack on Rafah. The prospect of fighting in Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city, was the main focus of the conversation. National security adviser Jake Sullivan, briefing reporters at the White House after the call, said Biden requested Israel send a team to hear the administration’s concerns about Rafah and brief his aides on their planning. Netanyahu agreed, and that discussion is scheduled to happen in the coming days. NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024 NO TO NO LABELS — Former Georgia Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, a leading contender in No Labels’ push to recruit a presidential nominee, has ruled out a 2024 bid , the Associated Press reports. Duncan, a Republican, had been in communication with the centrist group in recent weeks about running for the White House under the No Labels banner this fall. The well-funded organization has already secured ballot access in more than a dozen states. The former Georgia leader becomes the latest would-be candidate to turn down No Labels, a list that includes Republican former presidential candidate Nikki Haley, Republican former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan and Democratic retiring West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin. HE’S BACK — Former president Donald Trump is expected to enlist Paul Manafort, the former campaign manager he pardoned, as a campaign adviser later this year, according to the Washington Post. The job discussions have largely centered around the 2024 Republican convention in Milwaukee in July and could include Manafort playing a role in fundraising for the presumptive GOP nominee’s campaign, according to these people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private deliberations. While no formal decision has been made, the four people described the hiring as expected and said Trump was determined to bring Manafort back into the fold. Manafort worked for Trump in 2016 before being ousted and later convicted of tax and bank fraud felonies as part of Robert S. Mueller III’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election. He served time in prison before receiving a pardon in the final days of Trump’s time in office.   JOIN US ON 3/21 FOR A TALK ON FINANCIAL LITERACY: Americans from all communities should be able to save, build wealth, and escape generational poverty, but doing so requires financial literacy. How can government and industry ensure access to digital financial tools to help all Americans achieve this? Join POLITICO on March 21 as we explore how Congress, regulators, financial institutions and nonprofits are working to improve financial literacy education for all. REGISTER HERE .     AROUND THE WORLD Displaced Palestinians gather to receive food at a donation point in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on March 7, 2024, after more than four months of ongoing battles between Israel and the militant group Hamas. | Yasser Qudihe/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images BRINK OF FAMINE   — Half of the population in Gaza is on the brink of famine , an international early warning system set up by governments and NGOs said on Monday, reports POLITICO Europe. Under the most likely scenario, in which Israeli forces launch a ground offensive against Rafah, 1.1 million people will face “catastrophic” conditions by mid-July, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) said in its latest analysis. That represents a 92 percent rise since the last IPC forecast in December. TOWERING INBOX — Wales has a new leader. Now for the towering in-tray. Vaughan Gething will formally become First Minister on Wednesday , after narrowly winning a ballot of Labour Party members, making the 50-year-old Europe’s first Black head of government, write POLITICO Europe. As the plaudits fade, attention will turn to what it means for the three million-strong country’s relationship with the U.K. government based in Westminster — especially Labour Leader Keir Starmer, who polls predict will win a general election later this year. Gething also inherits rows over the lowering of many road speed limits from 30 to 20 mph, the performance of the NHS, and protests against subsidy reforms that will require farmers to hand back some land to nature. Planned reforms would also raise the number of members of the Welsh parliament, the Senedd, from 60 to 90.   A message from the Financial Services Forum:     NIGHTLY NUMBER 70% The percentage of Americans who believe U.S. presidents shouldn't be immune from criminal prosecution . Donald Trump claims that, as a former president, he is immune from criminal prosecution for conduct alleged to involve official acts during his tenure in office. RADAR SWEEP IPO ANXIETY — Reddit moderators, or mods, play a crucial role on the social media platform and online community. While the company has overarching content policies regarding acceptable content, the volunteer mods are responsible for, and have significant editorial discretion over, the individual subreddits they oversee. With Reddit slated to make its initial public offering (IPO) this week, Wired does a deep dive into whether this army of more than 60,000 unpaid moderators can coexist with Wall Street’s expectations for sales and user growth.   Easily connect with the right N.Y. State influencers and foster the right relationships to champion your policy priorities. POLITICO Pro. Inside New York. Learn more .     On this date in 1983: New York Mayor Edward Koch, wearing a traditional Irish sweater, gives his "thumbs up" at the start of the Saint Patrick's Day parade. Koch did not walk alongside the Grand Marshall, Irish Republican Army supporter Michael Flannery. | Marty Lederhandler/AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   A message from the Financial Services Forum: State pension fund management systems like CalPERS have warned that regulators' current proposal is likely to reduce returns for people saving for retirement. With Americans still recovering from steep prices for gas and groceries, now is not the time to raise costs further. It's no wonder a bipartisan group of lawmakers, former policymakers, business groups, academics, and nonprofit leaders have raised concerns over the proposal's potential impacts. See the cost.     Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   FOLLOW US

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