 | BY CHARLIE MAHTESIAN | Presented by Steuben County Industrial Development Agency | | 
Supporters of President Joe Biden greet voters on Jan. 23, 2024 in Loudon, New Hampshire. | Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images | JOE-MENTUM — The New Hampshire primary largely went as expected Tuesday, but we learned a few important things. On the heels of a weak Iowa performance, the architecture of Nikki Haley’s 11-point defeat last night all but confirms there’s no real path forward to the GOP nomination. She remains a formidable candidate, and can continue on through March amassing delegates, but it’s a zombie campaign so long as she’s losing 3 out of every 4 Republican voters to Donald Trump, as she did in New Hampshire. On the Democratic side, we learned something, too — Joe Biden is in better shape, at least within his own party, than many assumed. With close to 12,000 write-in votes still unprocessed, he has won an impressive 56 percent against challenger Rep. Dean Phillips, who could only muster 20 percent. When all the write-in ballots are counted, Biden seems likely to finish with over 60 percent of the vote. In an ordinary primary, a 55 or 60 percent performance by an incumbent would be a sure sign of weakness. But New Hampshire was no ordinary primary this year. Since Biden’s name didn’t actually appear on the ballot, all of his votes are write-ins. That’s an accomplishment in itself, but what makes Biden’s showing all the more impressive is that New Hampshire had good cause to give him a comeuppance. After all, the president eliminated the state’s prized first-in-the-nation primary status and put South Carolina in the lead-off spot this year, largely to suit his own political purposes. When New Hampshire decided to hold its primary anyway, Biden’s campaign shunned the state and the Democratic National Committee dismissed its unauthorized primary as “meaningless.” New Hampshire had never truly embraced him. While he won the state against Trump in 2020, in his unsuccessful 2008 presidential bid, Biden was polling at a mere 3 percent in New Hampshire before he dropped out of the race one week before the primary. In 2020, he finished an anemic 5th there, more than 50,000 votes behind first-place finisher Sen. Bernie Sanders.
THIS IS AN OUTDATED EXIT POLL FROM 2022 Through the 2022 midterm elections, New Hampshire’s electorate continued to hold Biden in low regard: 67 percent said they would not like to see him run for president in 2024 , according to exit polls. (66 percent said that of Trump.) In other words, New Hampshire — even its Democrats — had motive and opportunity to throw a brushback pitch at Biden, not to mention a history of sending bruising messages to wayward or weak incumbent presidents. There was Eugene McCarthy, who won 42 percent against Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968, enough to convince LBJ to announce several weeks later that he would “neither seek nor accept” the Democratic nomination. In 1992, Pat Buchanan’s 37 percent against George H.W. Bush in the GOP primary presaged Bush’s eventual defeat. Phillips, a Minnesota congressman, was a decided longshot, but no pushover. He spent nearly $3 million on TV, radio and digital ads in the state , bolstered by another $2.6 million in spending by super PACs backing him. Unlike Biden, who hasn’t been seen in New Hampshire since April 2022 , Phillips campaigned vigorously in the hopes of a McCarthy-like performance. Yet it hardly mattered. Phillips will finish with somewhere around 20 percent of the vote, respectable enough for a little-known congressman but not nearly enough to sustain a narrative that Biden has lost the support of the Democratic grassroots or that there will be a competitive primary. If anything there were signs of a rallying effect around Biden, enabling him to execute a clean pivot to the general election. The result was a news cycle featuring accounts of a decisive victory, followed by additional momentum for Biden’s campaign this morning — a key endorsement from the United Auto Workers union. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmahtesian@politico.com on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PoliticoCharlie .
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| | A message from Steuben County Industrial Development Agency: President Biden, Buy America is not just policy, it’s real jobs in places like Hornell, part of Steuben County in upstate New York where we’re busy building America’s high-speed trains. We’re counting on your support to ensure that we retain hundreds of jobs and add new ones to build the new trainsets for Brightline West. Don’t allow a waiver to build trainsets overseas. Let’s build the trains and keep those jobs here in America. | | | | | — Arizona GOP chair resigns following leaked recording: Arizona GOP Chair Jeff DeWit resigned today amid controversy over a leaked audio recording in which he appeared to attempt to bribe former gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake to not to run for Senate. DeWit, who had served in the role since January 2023, said in a statement that Lake’s team had issued him an ultimatum: “resign today or face the release of a new, more damaging recording.” — Dems intensify their pushback against Netanyahu with public defense of Palestinian state: Congressional Democrats today delivered their latest rebuke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu , aligning behind a symbolic declaration that the U.S. remains staunchly supportive of a Palestinian state as part of any ultimate resolution to unrest in the Middle East. As the Senate prepares to take up a potential emergency spending package with funds for Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan and border security, a group of 49 Senate Democratic caucus members led by Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) offered an amendment reiterating that U.S. policy favors a two-state solution. The proposal is a clear pushback against Netanyahu’s recent rejection of that approach, giving Democrats a fresh opportunity to channel their frustration with his conservative government.
WATCH THE MONEY! DON'T BE FOOLED! — Uber to counter California’s labor muscle with $30M political spend: Uber, the ride-hailing and delivery giant that launched in San Francisco, is prepping a massive cash infusion to shake up politics in California , according to plans revealed first to POLITICO. The company is dropping $30 million into its existing state committee — called the Uber Innovation PAC — all of which it plans to spend on candidates and causes in 2024, people familiar with its plans said.
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| | JOIN 1/31 FOR A TALK ON THE RACE TO SOLVE ALZHEIMER’S: Breakthrough drugs and treatments are giving new hope for slowing neurodegenerative diseases like Alzheimer’s disease and ALS. But if that progress slows, the societal and economic cost to the U.S. could be high. Join POLITICO, alongside lawmakers, official and experts, on Jan. 31 to discuss a path forward for better collaboration among health systems, industry and government. REGISTER HERE . | | | | | | | NOT HELPFUL — A Russian-American businessman based in Miami is suspected of making nearly $23 million from alleged insider trading involving former President Donald Trump’s media company , according to the Miami Herald. The businessman, Anton Postolnikov, is the owner of a Caribbean bank that caters to the porn industry and also reportedly loaned $8 million to Trump’s media company. Postolnikov, who owns a few residences on exclusive Fisher Island in Miami, is the nephew of a former high-ranking Russian government official who at one time was a staffer for Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to media reports. START YOUR ENGINES — The United Auto Workers endorsed President Joe Biden for reelection today, after holding off a decision for months despite historic support from the White House for the union’s agenda, POLITICO reports. EVERY DELEGATE COUNTS — Before the race for the Republican nomination reaches Super Tuesday, on March 5, contests will be held in Nevada and South Carolina. And yet the next chance for Donald Trump and Nikki Haley to scoop up delegates will not come in any of those places, but somewhere that won’t even get to vote in the November presidential election: the U.S. Virgin Islands. Republicans in the U.S. territory will hold caucuses on Feb. 8, the same day as Nevada , although that state is in a later time zone. The contest might not be circled on many calendars, but Trump and Haley are not overlooking it, writes the New York Times. Haley addressed a meeting of Republican leaders in the territory virtually today, a day after finishing second to Trump in New Hampshire. Trump will send Rep. Wesley Hunt of Texas, a member of the House committee that oversees U.S. territories, to campaign there this week. SOFT SUPPORT — Two members of Senate Republican leadership today offered Donald Trump soft support as the party’s likely presidential nominee — but also urged him to view his New Hampshire victory as a nudge to do more to court independent voters, POLITICO reports. Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), the conference’s No. 2 leader, said that he’d support Trump if the former president wins the party’s nod, but gave no hint he’ll endorse before the primary is officially over. Thune, who faced tension with Trump ahead of his 2022 reelection bid to the Senate, acknowledged after Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary that voters are “breaking heavily” for Trump, who is “in a commanding position.”
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| | A message from Steuben County Industrial Development Agency: In 2015 there were 250 train manufacturing jobs at Alstom’s plant in Hornell, NY. Today, thanks to strong Buy America provisions there are nearly 700 men and women building high-speed trains. Today the Biden-Harris administration has a decision – keep supporting Buy America and creating more jobs in upstate New York and small towns across the country, or allow trains for Brightline West to be made in Germany. The choice should be clear. Buy America works for places like Steuben County but only when it is upheld consistently. Steuben County workers stand ready to build high-quality high-speed trains for Brightline West and deliver them in an ambitious timeframe to meet the goals of Brightline West and the nation. Let’s build America’s high-speed trains in America, not overseas. | | | | | | 
A tractor with a banner that reads "angry farmer" blocks a section of the A64 highway in France. | Valentine Chapuis/AFP via Getty Images | PROTEST RISING — Farmers in France are demanding the government take action to reduce regulation and taxes on fuel they say are making margins in their sector razor thin, reports POLITICO EU. They want other French workers — including truckers and medical workers — to join in. They’re aiming to start a movement like the massive Yellow Jacket protests that rocked France in 2018. They’ve begun to blockade highways in protest, and despite the illegality of some of the blockades, French police have not moved in to break them up. The farmers enjoy widespread support. The movement is backed by 82 percent of people in France, according to one poll; seven out of 10 people said they support the blockades and would oppose police intervention. This is likely the reason why French President Emmanuel Macron has sounded sympathetic to the farmers. Earlier this month, he vowed to help them make the transition to more environmentally friendly practices and promised to ensure “they are never left without a solution.” Macron’s cabinet members have also voiced understanding for the farmers; the president is considering a pro-farmer lead candidate for his liberal party ahead of the European election in June. By showing his support, Macron is likely also hoping to ward off a challenge from the far right, which is seeking to co-opt the farmer protests. More radical protests have been staged in cities across France, many of which have been dominated by members of Coordination Rurale, a farmers’ union close to the French far right. Those protestors, many of whom wear signature yellow hats, have set hay and tires on fire in front of government buildings and banks.
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| | | HOUSTON, WE HAVE A PROBLEM — NASA finally opened a canister containing asteroid collections after being unable to open the capsule for four months. The canister — which contains asteroid rock and dust collections from the asteroid Bennu — landed back on Earth in September after launching in 2016. NASA had already analyzed “bonus” material attached to the outside of the capsule, but remained unable to open the part containing the main asteroid sample due to two stuck fasteners. Will Sullivan writes for Smithsonian Magazine the story of researchers developing new tools and working for months to get asteroid samples from a mission almost eight years in the making — and where the asteroid collections will go from here.
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On this date in 1989: The body of mass murderer Ted Bundy arrives at the medical examiner's office in Gainesville, Fla., after electrocution. | Mark Foley/AP | Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here . | |
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