Middleboro Review 2: POLITICO Massachusetts Playbook: What's at stake in New Hampshire's primary

Tuesday, January 23, 2024

POLITICO Massachusetts Playbook: What's at stake in New Hampshire's primary

BY MIA MCCARTHY , KELLY GARRITY AND LISA KASHINSKY

Presented by

FINAL COUNTDOWN — It’s Primary Day in New Hampshire. But it doesn’t feel like it.

A Republican field that once included a slate of high profile GOP hopefuls has been whittled down to two after just one nominating contest. By 8 p.m. Monday night, one of those candidates was done campaigning. The other one was just gearing up for his only event of the night.

On the Democratic side , two candidates aren’t running against the incumbent, but a write-in campaign for him.

But the stakes are far higher than the candidates are making it seem. New Hampshire is the anti-Donald Trump movement’s best chance at blunting the former president’s momentum. If Trump gets more than 50 percent of the vote, he’ll be effectively on a glidepath to his third GOP presidential nomination.

But if Nikki Haley pulls off the upset — or at least comes within a few percentage points of Trump — it could breathe new oxygen into a movement that suffered a blow in Iowa. Not to mention what it could do for the former South Carolina governor’s campaign as the primary heads to her home state.

New Hampshire had , until this week, looked like the best chance for a candidate to wound the frontrunner. Trump’s rivals had held him under 50 percent in polling averages. Haley, meanwhile, had surged after standout debate performances plus a well-timed endorsement from New Hampshire’s popular Republican governor, Chris Sununu — bringing her within striking distance of the former president in some polls. And she has absorbed many supporters of former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (and of his anti-Trump message).

But everything changed after the Iowa caucuses . Many of the Republican field's most popular also-rans have coalesced around Trump: Vivek Ramaswamy and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis both dropped out and immediately backed the former president, encouraging their supporters to do the same. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum have also pledged their support in recent days. Trump trotted out Ramaswamy, Scott and Burgum in his primary-eve rally in Laconia, calling them a "great people."

Haley’s closing argument , meanwhile, was aimed at the anti-Trump Republicans and independents she’ll need to turn out in droves today to have any chance at a strong showing. The message: Vote for her to avoid a rematch between Trump and Joe Biden. It’s a pitch she’s made throughout her campaign, but one that’s grown in urgency since the race was pared down to two.

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley speaks in a room of hundreds of people gathered at Tuscan Village to listen to her last big campaign event before the primary in Salem, N.H. on Jan 22, 2024. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO

Here’s where things stand as voting gets underway: Haley won all six votes at Dixville Notch at midnight. But with DeSantis out, Trump has only widened his lead, according the latest Suffolk University/NBC10 Boston/Boston Globe tracking poll .

Tonight’s results will ripple across the state border. Democratic-led efforts to boot Trump from the ballot in Massachusetts have so far proved unsuccessful. The state ballot commission dismissed two 14th Amendment challenges Monday aimed at keeping Trump off the ballot (more on that below).

If Trump is able to effectively lock up the nomination tonight, it will make it far harder for the MassGOP — which notched a key win (for morale, if not political power) in a special state Senate election last year and is looking to be competitive in several legislative races this year — to field candidates and to win. It's a reality many Republicans in the state have already acknowledged while trying to find a challenger to Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side , Biden’s allies on both sides of the state line are hoping to stave off an embarrassment in which the president underperforms or even cedes an early contest to a long-shot challenger. Biden isn’t on the primary ballot, because of the intraparty squabble over the order of this year’s nominating calendar, and the Democratic National Committee won’t count the results toward the convention. But Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) and self-help author Marianne Williamson are on the ballot — and if even one of them overperforms, it’ll be a bad look for Biden.

GOOD TUESDAY MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS . Stay locked on POLITICO’s homepage for live coverage throughout primary day and night!

TODAY — Gov. Maura Healey testifies in support of the HERO Act at 1 p.m. at the State House. Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll speaks at a National Guard send-off ceremony at 10 a.m. in Worcester. Rep. Lori Trahan, Gardner Mayor Michael Nicholson and other state and local elected officials tour the Mount Wachusett Community College’s Automotive Facility at 11 a.m. and attend the Gardner Municipal Airport ribbon cutting ceremony at noon.

Tips? Scoops? Birthdays? Email us: lkashinsky@politico.com , kgarrity@politico.com and mmcarthy@politico.com.

A message from Equinor:

The energy transition is the defining opportunity of our time and Massachusetts is helping lead the way. At Equinor, we are determined to use our competence, skills, and innovative spirit to continually search for solutions that will advance the energy transition. Our ambition is to break new ground, create lasting value, and supply energy to a thriving world while achieving net zero by 2050. Discover more about Equinor at www.equinor.com/USA.

DATELINE BEACON HILL

PAGING D.C. — Gov. Maura Healey joined eight other governors — many of them Joe Biden campaign surrogates — in penning a letter to the president and congressional leaders pressuring them to come to an agreement amid slow-moving border and immigration negotiations.

“While political motivations continue to delay the negotiations, our economy, states and localities are bearing the brunt of the shortcomings of the existing immigration system,” the governors wrote in the letter, dated Jan. 22 and addressed to Biden, House Speaker Mike Johnson , House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries , Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell .

In addition to Healey, the list of governors who signed on includes several Biden allies and leaders of key swing states — including California Gov. Gavin Newsom , Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker , Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs , New York Gov. Kathy Hochul , Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore , New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy and New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham.

“I can tell you that the governors are working bipartisan on this. We need D.C. to act, we need Congress to act," Healey told reporters at the State House Monday.

— “Advocates renew push for 'sanctuary' state law,” by Christian M. Wade, The Eagle-Tribune.

— “Healey shelves, for now, a proposal to strip lawmakers of their control of liquor licenses,” by Matt Stout, The Boston Globe: “Just days after first unveiling it, Governor Maura Healey on Monday shelved a proposal that would have allowed local officials — not state lawmakers — to set caps on the number of liquor licenses distributed in their city or town, long a contentious issue among Boston officials. … Karissa Hand, a Healey spokesperson, said Monday that Healey still supports the idea but that the administration needed more time to get the ‘language right.’ She did not indicate when Healey could file the proposal.”

— “Lawmakers open to Healey's bill allowing local tax hikes,” by Katie Lannan, GBH News: “Top Democrats on Beacon Hill have said they don't want to increase state taxes next year, but they're keeping an open mind on a bill from Gov. Maura Healey that could clear the way for some local taxes to rise.”

THERE’S A BILL FOR THAT — Some New Hampshire voters received calls Monday from a fake Joe Biden, encouraging them to sit out today’s primary and “save” their vote until November. The New Hampshire attorney general’s office is investigating the incident, Lisa reports , and New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu slammed the robo calls as illegal “voter suppression.” Meanwhile in Massachusetts, a bill filed by state Sen. Barry Finegold earlier this month would keep “deepfake” media out of campaigns in the last three months leading up to an election.

— “Healey gives members of her Cabinet $15,000 raises amid spending cuts,” by Matt Stout, The Boston Globe.

TRUMPACHUSETTS

CHALLENGE NOT ACCEPTED — The effort to strike Donald Trump ’s name from the state’s Republican primary ballot hit a snag Monday, after the Massachusetts Ballot Law Commission determined it did not have jurisdiction to rule on two challenges, filed by Free Speech for People and prominent Bay State attorney Shannon Liss-Riordan , arguing the so-called insurrection clause of the 14th Amendment disqualifies Trump from the presidential primary ballot. The challengers “will be appealing this ruling soon,” Edward Erickson of Free Speech for People said in an email to Playbook. Liss-Riordan said they would be appealing to the state's top court.

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MEDIA MATTERS

— “Journalists on the ground in New Hampshire report some challenges getting into the room with Trump, Haley,” by Aidan Ryan, The Boston Globe.

FROM THE HUB

— “Mayor Wu makes case for BPDA home rule petition before legislative committee,” by Niki Griswold, The Boston Globe.

A message from Equinor:

DAY IN COURT

— “In Mass. brothel case, lawyers for suspected sex buyers argue to keep magistrate hearings private,” by Danny McDonald, The Boston Globe: “Attorneys for 13 people suspected of buying sex at brothels in Cambridge and Watertown argued in legal filings Monday that the court should reverse course and make ‘show cause’ hearings in the case private. A clerk-magistrate is slated to hold hearings in Cambridge District Court to determine whether there is enough evidence to support a request by police to bring state criminal charges against 28 people allegedly linked to the brothel ring during a federal investigation.”

— “Court hearing scheduled on Newton teachers’ strike that canceled school Monday,” by Juliet Schulman-Hall, MassLive: “Newton educators are continuing their strike on Monday despite court pressures to end it. … Newton Mayor Ruthanne Fuller said in an email to the community on Friday that a Middlesex Superior Court judge granted an injunction against the teachers union to ‘immediately cease and desist from engaging or threatening to engage in this strike or work stoppage, slowdown or other withholding of services and the employees shall immediately return to their assigned work locations on [Monday] January 22, 2024."

WARREN REPORT

THE ANNIVERSARY THAT WASN’T — “Today should have been the 51st anniversary of Roe v. Wade . Instead, too many people can’t get the medical care they need where they need it when they need it,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren writes in a Glamour op-ed out Monday. As Biden's campaign looks to ramp up its abortion rights messaging, Warren argues the Biden-Harris administration “has stepped up to vigorously protect reproductive freedom,” and warns what electing a Republican president in November could mean for abortion rights.

DATELINE D.C.

— “In D.C. speech, Cardinal Sean O’Malley denounces physician-assisted suicide,” by Danny McDonald, The Boston Globe: “Cardinal Sean P. O’Malley, the head of the Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Boston, condemned physician-assisted suicide at a conference concerning the value of human life over the weekend in Washington, D.C., according to a Catholic news service.”

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2024 WATCH

DIEHL is an EXTREMIST LOSER!

Just another MASS GOP Whack-A-Ding!

DIEHL WATCH — Former Senate and gubernatorial candidate Geoff Diehl has loaned his campaign $5,500, campaign finance records show . Diehl told Playbook in December he’s exploring a run for state Senate, setting up a potential redux of the race he lost to Democrat Michael Brady in a 2015 special election.

THE LOCAL ANGLE

— “State funds boost affordable housing projects in region,” by James Pentland, Daily Hampshire Gazette: “Affordable housing projects in 19 communities, including Northampton, South Hadley and Holyoke, will benefit from subsidies and tax credits announced Monday by Gov. Maura Healey. … The money comes from subsidies and the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit program, which saw a $20 million increase in the tax package Healey signed in October.”

— “On deck for [Worcester] City Council: Opioid overdoses, a rough intersection and the city budget,” by Marco Cartolano, Telegram & Gazette.

— “Developers of affordable housing in Gloucester have shot at $1.5M in ARPA money,” by Ethan Forman, Gloucester Daily Times.

A message from Equinor:

The energy transition is the defining opportunity of our time and Massachusetts is helping lead the way. Our world needs energy to keep moving forward — but it must be affordable reliable, and sustainable. We all have a role to play. At Equinor, we’re using our competence, skills, and innovative spirit to continually search for solutions that will advance the energy transition. Our ambition is to break new ground, create lasting value, and supply energy to a thriving world while achieving net zero by 2050. We're delivering safe, secure, and reliable energy while creating jobs and investing in a more sustainable US energy system. But this is only the beginning. Discover more about Equinor at www.equinor.com/USA.

HEARD ‘ROUND THE BUBBLAH

TRANSITIONS — Lora Pellegrini, president and CEO of the Massachusetts Association of Health Plans, has been named president of the Massachusetts Women’s Political Caucus.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY — to Kristen Lepore, former chief of staff to former Gov. Charlie Baker. and Harvard Institute of Politics’ Amy Howell.

Want to make an impact? POLITICO Massachusetts has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Bay State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness among this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com .

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