POLITICO Nightly: Nikki Haley’s big get

 

BY CHARLIE MAHTESIAN Presented by New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu speaks onstage at the 2023 TIME100 Summit at Jazz at Lincoln Center in New York City. | Jemal Countess/Getty Images for TIME STAMP OF APPROVAL — Chris Sununu said he would endorse a presidential candidate before Christmas, and he just delivered on his promise. The New Hampshire governor gave his imprimatur to Nikki Haley this evening, providing an adrenaline shot to Haley’s campaign in the first-in-the-nation primary state. It’s a big get for the former U.N. ambassador, even if the value of Sununu’s endorsement is subject to some hyper-ventilating and overheated analysis. It’s the latest reminder of Haley’s surge in the polls, and a blow to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in the early state most primed for a Trump ambush. Haley’s presidential fortunes are reliant on a strong finish in New Hampshire; having the support of the state’s popular governor is a crucial validation for her campaign. Political endorsements don’t have nearly the same resonance they once had. There are probably less than a dozen across the nation that truly matter in the Republican primary this year — and Sununu’s stamp of approval is one of them. Part of the reason is his state: New Hampshire’s early role in the primary calendar amplifies the significance of the otherwise small state. Independents can vote in the primary there, which distinguishes the state from the political calculus at work in Iowa and South Carolina, where the GOP electorates have higher percentages of social conservatives and evangelicals. Sununu’s personal popularity also changes the equation. Despite being one of the GOP’s leading Trump critics, he retains his viability within the party. He’s coming off a big reelection victory in 2022 where he won more votes than any other candidate on the New Hampshire ballot, and has been a rare statewide bright spot for his party over the past decade — since 2011, Democrats have won every presidential election and Senate contest. The problem, of course, is that there are limits to what Sununu can deliver in a party that remains in thrall to Donald Trump. For all the hype that will attach to his endorsement of Haley, the fact remains that Trump remains the overwhelming GOP frontrunner, both nationally and in New Hampshire. His lead over Haley, who is in second place in Granite State polls, is more than 2-to-1. In one recent poll from Suffolk University/The Boston Globe/USA Today, 86 percent of likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters said a Sununu endorsement would not impact their vote, compared to just 13 percent who said it would. And recent election history suggests gubernatorial endorsements rarely move the dial for primary voters. Other than Charlie Crist’s last-minute 2008 endorsement of John McCain in Florida, there aren’t many standout examples over the past quarter-century. Governors, for their part, have become increasingly reluctant to put skin in the game before any primary votes are cast for fear of blowback or wasting their political capital. (Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, who endorsed DeSantis in November and incurred the wrath of Trump, is a prominent example of a governor who bucked that trend). In Sununu’s case, it’s worth remembering that prior to 2000, one of the more memorable examples of a governor lifting a presidential candidate came from within his own family — his father, former Gov. John Sununu, went all out for George H.W. Bush in the 1988 New Hampshire primary and played a key role in helping Bush defeat Sen. Robert Dole there. Haley isn’t really battling for victory in New Hampshire — she’s engaged in a fight for second place, to claim the mantle as the Trump alternative. She’s playing a longer game, and in that context, Sununu’s endorsement has enhanced value. He may be viewed in some party quarters as a small-state governor and a suspected squish, but as a member of the GOP’s governing wing and a rare Republican who has thrived in the blue killing fields of New England, his voice can’t be easily dismissed. Before endorsing Haley, Sununu spent time squiring both DeSantis and Christie around his home state. In light of DeSantis’ fading prospects in New Hampshire , Sununu’s decision couldn’t have come as much of a surprise. For Christie, who’s staked his entire campaign on a strong performance there, it will leave a bigger bruise . “This is the best day of Nikki Haley’s campaign,” said Jim Merrill, a veteran GOP strategist who ran both of Mitt Romney’s campaigns in New Hampshire, but is not working for a candidate this year. “She’s earning the support of the most popular and successful Republican of his generation up here. It’s going to give her a real shot in the arm in New Hampshire, where she’s already shown some momentum and growth, but it also gives her a national surrogate who I’m sure you’re going to see on the Sunday shows and talking to donors.” Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmahtesian@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PoliticoCharlie .   A message from bp: bp added more than $70 billion to the US economy last year. We did it by making investments from coast to coast – like almost doubling our capacity to produce biodiesel in Washington state and bringing a new platform online in the Gulf of Mexico. See how else bp is investing in America.   WHAT'D I MISS? — Johnson almost certainly has votes to formalize Biden impeachment inquiry: House Republicans almost certainly have the votes needed to formally launch an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden this week . Nearly all GOP members either plan to or lean towards supporting a vote to formalize their investigation into the Democratic president and his family’s business dealings, according to a POLITICO whip count, while all House Democrats are expected to unanimously oppose. It was a tricky whip operation for Speaker Mike Johnson, who can only afford to lose three GOP votes assuming full House attendance. The Louisiana Republican, top investigators and his leadership team worked to win over Republicans in battleground districts who for months had been loath to support such a vote but, so far, only one GOP lawmaker seems likely to oppose the resolution to greenlight the inquiry on Wednesday. — New York’s top court orders new House district lines: New York’s top court is giving Democrats another shot at drawing congressional lines in 2024 , smoothing the path for pickups for the party in a state where they underperformed in 2022 and helped hand House control to Republicans. A 4-3 decision by the Court of Appeals today ordered a bipartisan commission that deadlocked last year to reconvene and produce new draft plans by the end of February. — Judge: Giuliani may have defamed Georgia election workers again: Rudy Giuliani’s defiant public statements outside a Washington, D.C., federal courthouse — just minutes after he departed the first day of his civil trial for defaming two Georgia election workers — may have defamed them yet again , the judge presiding over the proceedings said today. “Was Mr. Giuliani just playing for the cameras?” wondered U.S. District Judge Beryl Howell, who has already found Giuliani liable for lying about the workers, Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss, by accusing them of manipulating ballots in the 2020 election. After the first day of his trial, when jurors began to hear evidence to determine just how much Giuliani must pay for defaming the two women, Giuliani approached television cameras outside the courthouse and reiterated his attacks on them. — Claudine Gay holds on as Harvard president, rebuffing lawmakers: Harvard University’s highest governing board released a statement today standing by President Claudine Gay amid calls from Capitol Hill seeking her removal after responses she gave at a House Education committee hearing on antisemitism. “In this tumultuous and difficult time, we unanimously stand in support of President Gay,” the Harvard Corporation wrote in a statement. “At Harvard, we champion open discourse and academic freedom, and we are united in our strong belief that calls for violence against our students and disruptions of the classroom experience will not be tolerated.”   Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here .     NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024 CHRISTIE COOKED? — It was a win for Nikki Haley, but a blow for Chris Christie — today, Chris Sununu, New Hampshire’s popular governor and a longtime friend of Christie, endorsed the former U.N. ambassador. Christie couldn’t even land the support of the guy who once called Trump “fucking crazy.” Not even in the state in which he’s staking his campaign, writes POLITICO. Christie seemed to know it was coming. He sought to downplay the importance of Sununu’s endorsement as Haley’s polling surge made it increasingly unlikely he was going to get it. And his campaign did much the same today. THE OTHER MENENDEZ — Rep. Rob Menendez (D-N.J.), son of indicted Senator Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), is getting a primary challenger for his New Jersey House seat in 2024 , POLITICO reports. Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla announced his bid to unseat the junior Menendez today. The election will test whether the son can avoid being dragged down by his father, who faces federal charges for being a foreign agent and accepting bribes in cash and gold bars. The senator already faces his own series of primary challengers, among them Rep. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) and New Jersey’s first lady Tammy Murphy. Menendez questioned Bhalla’s jump into the race in a statement: “it seems the only reason Ravi has entered the race after endorsing me in 2022 and publicly applauding our work this year is because a week after losing control of the city council, he sees no political future for himself in Hoboken.” FAMILY MATTERS — Democrats fear Hunter Biden’s prolonged scandals could impact his father’s chances at reelection, The Messenger reports . Democratic strategists described the Hunter Biden mess as a “distraction” with the ability to ruin President Joe Biden’s 2024 campaign. Republicans have continued to villainize Hunter Biden, especially ahead of a possible impeachment inquiry into the president tomorrow. Biden allies have claimed the problems have been overblown — but still worry about the effect Hunter Biden may have in his reelection. To many of the strategists, Hunter Biden’s legal and personal troubles resemble the emails that kept Hillary Clinton from the presidency. While the president still faces plenty of other challenges ahead of 2024 — his age, most notably — strategists worry the Hunter Biden troubles could be an effective detractor.   A message from bp:     AROUND THE WORLD A view of a phone tower of Ukrainian mobile telephone network operator Kyivstar seen in the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine, on Nov. 30, 2022. | Andrew Kravchenko/AP GETTING OFFLINE — Ukraine’s largest telecom operator was targeted by a cyberattack today that severely impacted internet services in portions of the country, with government agencies blaming Russia, reports POLITICO. The attack comes as experts are warning that Russia is likely to intensify its cyberattacks on Ukraine in the winter months and marks one of the largest cyberattacks against a Ukrainian company since the beginning of Russia’s invasion early last year. Ukrainian telecom group Kyivstar posted in a translated statement on X on this morning that the company was “the target of a powerful hacker attack” which caused “a technical failure” that led to the company’s telecom and internet access networks collapsing. The company, with about 26 million customers in Ukraine, wrote on X that “our enemies are insidious, but we are ready to face any difficulties, overcome and continue working for Ukraine.” The Security Service of Ukraine opened a criminal investigation into the incident, according to a translated statement from the agency, and the SSU suspects that “Russian special services” are behind the attack. The SSU, which is working with Kyivstar to recover from the attack, sent a team to the company as soon as the attack was reported. But not every agency is rushing to blame Russia. Ukraine’s State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection, the nation’s cybersecurity agency, said in a statement sent to reporters that “it is too early to draw conclusions,” and noted that specialists from Ukraine’s Computer Emergency Response team are involved in responding to the attack.   POLITICO AT CES® 2024 : We are going ALL On at CES 2024 with a special edition of the POLITICO Digital Future Daily newsletter. The CES-focused newsletter will take you inside the most powerful tech event in the world, featuring revolutionary products that cut across verticals, and insights from industry leaders that are shaping the future of innovation. The newsletter runs from Jan. 9-12 and will focus on the public policy-related aspects of the gathering. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage of the show .     NIGHTLY NUMBER 0.1 percent The amount that the consumer price index, a measure of the average change in prices over time, rose from October to November , according to a report released today from the Labor Department. That’s a miniscule number that spells good news for future inflation. At the same time, the latest data on consumer inflation showed that prices in some areas — services such as restaurants, used cars and auto insurance — continued to rise uncomfortably fast. RADAR SWEEP DEPT. OF RETURNS — From grabbing the gift receipts to mailing back Amazon purchases that came too late, consumers are constantly making returns. But what happens to these returned items after they’re shipped back? Amanda Mull recently looked to answer that question and figure out what happens to the unwanted stuff people return every day . She shadowed a worker at a Pennsylvania returns processing facility, where she looked at the lifespan of returned merchandise. She watched workers sort through returned clothes using everything from fabric type to smell to determine whether it can be resold — or thrown away. In a story for The Atlantic, Mull explores what happens to the items we return, whether it’s back on the shelf or (more likely) left in a landfill. PARTING IMAGE On this date in 1987: Two Israeli soldiers run towards a group of Palestinian youth, background, who had been hurling rocks and bottles at them in Nablus — a city in the West Bank — during demonstrations throughout the city and other parts of the region. The demonstrations, termed the first Palestinian Intifada, began after an Israeli truck driver struck a car and killed four Palestinian civilians on Dec. 9, 1987, and lasted through the Madrid Conference of 1991. | Max Nash/AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   A message from bp: bp supports more than 275,000 US jobs. Jobs keeping oil and gas flowing and jobs developing more lower carbon energy. It’s and, not or. See what doing both means for energy nationwide.     Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   FOLLOW US

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