POLITICO NIGHTLY: One way that Covid’s origin doesn’t matter

BY JOANNE KENEN AND RENUKA RAYASAM Presented by THE VIRUS NEXT TIME — The headlines about “Chinese Lab Leaks” sound sinister and alarming. It would be reassuring to know the truth, one way or another. Understanding how the coronavirus arose, whether from a bat or a lab, could bolster defenses against the next pandemic. Yet at the same time, there’s a way that the origin of the virus doesn’t matter. Whether it spilled over from animal to human in nature, or via a leak from a Wuhan lab, the monumental challenge for scientists and governments and the global public health network is to do better in the next pandemic. And one inevitably will come, either from the wild or a lab. To Esther Krofah, executive director of FasterCures at the Milken Institute, who has been working with top global health experts on a soon-to-be released report on lessons learned from the pandemic, the challenge is to stay focused on how to stop the next pandemic, even as we struggle with unanswered questions about the current one. “Whether it’s zoonotic or from a lab, it’s exposed our gaps in response,” she told Nightly. “Collectively, as a global community, we were unprepared.” “We were significantly underinvesting and we had a false sense of safety and preparedness,” even after brushes with pandemic flu, Zika, Ebola, SARS and MERS, Krofah said. And no matter Covid’s origins, lab safety needs to be more of a priority, said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. Viruses have escaped from labs before, though they had never ignited a global pandemic. Covid gives new impetus to make sure there are fewer accidental lab leaks “What role the Wuhan lab may have played, it doesn’t matter,” he said. The issue is “needing to beef up lab-based safety for future potential agents that might escape.” Given that it’s now been a year and a half since the coronavirus emerged, there’s no guarantee that there will ever be a conclusive finding about the origins of SARS-CoV-2, even if President Joe Biden has ordered a 90-day review of what U.S. intelligence agencies have been able to glean, which he said today he’d make public. Even if this one did escape from a lab, viruses are likely to spill from animals to humans in the future, and more frequently, as humans encroach on formerly uninhabited lands, and the climate changes. Krofah wants to improve surveillance of these viruses and help public health systems worldwide respond more nimbly to them when they emerge. Still: “It is important to understand the origin,” said Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. If this coronavirus did jump from a bat to another unknown animal to humans, identifying that chain could help change how humans interact with those animals and reduce future risks. And if there were lapses in a laboratory, it’s important that they are discovered and addressed. Many labs around the world work with dangerous viruses, and even send samples through the mail. Accidents and mistakes happen — including here in the U.S. The World Health Organization and other international bodies have begun to wrestle with how to get better at early detection of threats and dangers. The incentives should promote disclosure and openness, not trying to sweep a dangerous new disease under the rug.   A message from Emergent BioSolutions: At Emergent, we make things you never thought you’d need — until you do. Until you need to counteract an opioid overdose. Or need protection against smallpox, anthrax, cholera, or botulism. And now, we’re in the fight against COVID-19. At Emergent, we take on public health challenges and work to help protect public health. And that’s why We Go.   Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. We’re off on Monday, May 31, for Memorial Day! Reach out with news, tips and ideas for us at rrayasam@politico.com, or on Twitter at @renurayasam. FIRST IN NIGHTLY “I think that I have opened the door to people not being afraid to talk about it. I know that when I first got involved in this, people in the military were afraid to mention it for fear of it hurting their promotions.” — FORMER SENATE MAJORITY LEADER HARRY REID TO SENIOR NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT BRYAN BENDER IN “THE HIDDEN HISTORY OF HOW WASHINGTON EMBRACED UFOS,” COMING FRIDAY IN POLITICO MAGAZINE FROM THE HEALTH DESK HAPPY HOLIDAY — Last year, heading into Memorial Day weekend, the U.S. was recording about 21,000 new Covid-19 cases a day. Now heading into Memorial Day 2021, the U.S. is recording about 23,000 new daily cases, a slightly higher level than last year — two months before last July’s surge and six months before a winter spike that killed thousands of Americans a day. But the national mood around the pandemic has brightened considerably, thanks to vaccines. About half of all adults in the country are fully vaccinated, and fewer people are dying of the disease. Deaths have dropped to fewer than 600 a day, compared with about 1,000 a day this time last year. “A national surge has been taken off the table,” University of Minnesota epidemiologist Michael Osterholm told Nightly. Osterholm has been this pandemic’s doomsayer. Just last month he warned of a “fourth surge.” For the first time since Covid hit the country, he’s optimistic. Still, he said, with so many people refusing vaccines he predicts that the country will hover around 20,000 cases a day for the foreseeable future. Heading into the summer, states with high populations of unvaccinated residents could see new surges and localized outbreaks. Right now in many states the level of spread among unvaccinated people is the same as throughout the country this winter, according to a Washington Post analysis.   SUBSCRIBE TO "THE RECAST" TODAY: Power is shifting in Washington and in communities across the country. More people are demanding a seat at the table, insisting that politics is personal and not all policy is equitable. The Recast is a twice-weekly newsletter that explores the changing power dynamics in Washington and breaks down how race and identity are recasting politics and policy in America. Get fresh insights, scoops and dispatches on this crucial intersection from across the country and hear critical new voices that challenge business as usual. Don't miss out, SUBSCRIBE . Thank you to our sponsor, Intel.     WHAT'D I MISS? — Senate Dems reject GOP infrastructure counteroffer: Senate Democrats panned the Republicans’ latest counteroffer on infrastructure today, signaling a bipartisan agreement remains far out of reach. The Democratic opposition was in response to Republicans’ new $928 billion infrastructure proposal this morning. There’s a wide gulf between the GOP and the White House on top lines, with Republicans proposing $257 billion in new spending and the White House’s last proffered number at $1.7 trillion. — Senate GOP ready to filibuster Jan. 6 commission: Senate Republicans are ready to filibuster a proposed independent commission to investigate the Capitol riot, as GOP opposition swelled in the final days before the vote expected later tonight. Several undecided Republicans came down against advancing the commission ahead of the vote, despite efforts by Sen. Susan Collins of Maine to broker a compromise — BLM’s Patrisse Cullors to step down from movement foundation: The co-founder of Black Lives Matter announced today she is stepping down as executive director of the movement’s foundation after what she has called a smear campaign from a far-right group and recent criticism from other Black organizers. — California to hand out prizes as vaccine incentives: California will hand out $116.5 million in Covid-19 incentives — including $1.5 million prizes — to get more shots in arms before its June 15 reopening date, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced today. Other states have offered big payouts — New York is giving out scratch-off tickets for the chance to win up to $5 million — but California’s is the largest to date. — Bipartisan deal salvages bill aimed at countering China: The bill, set for a vote later tonight, sets aside billions of dollars in new funding for science and technology grants. Its goal is to counter China’s economic rise and develop a strategy to deal with national security challenges emanating from Beijing. The bill could be the final major bipartisan victory the Senate can achieve this year, with several cross-aisle negotiations on other major issues stalling. — Biden: Republicans are promoting a recovery plan they voted against: Biden mocked Republicans today for voting against the coronavirus recovery package and then touting the bill to voters. “I’m not going to embarrass anyone, but I have here a list of how back in their districts they’re bragging,” he said during a visit to Northeast Ohio, holding up a list of 13 Republicans. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the economy today at the Cuyahoga Community College Metropolitan Campus in Cleveland. | AP Photo/Evan Vucci ASK THE AUDIENCE Nightly asks you: News stories come out seemingly every day bemoaning a lack of items from Chick-fil-A sauce to gasoline. What pandemic shortages have you seen in your community? Send us your answers on our form, and we’ll include select responses next week.   A message from Emergent BioSolutions:     AROUND THE WORLD ‘A BIG AND LONG SPIRAL OF SANCTIONS’ — German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas warned Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko today that his authoritarian-leaning regime would face a barrage of sanctions if it did not start releasing political prisoners — including a recently detained journalist and his partner. Maas said a new set of targeted sanctions against individuals and companies close to Lukashenko’s regime would only be the beginning of an economic and financial crackdown on the regime if it did not change course. Belarus authorities intercepted a commercial flight Sunday in order to arrest dissident journalist Roman Protasevich and his partner. EU leaders said Monday they would hit Belarus with sanctions in response. “The first signal that we expect is that the more than 400 political prisoners that are there will be released,” the German foreign minister said. “And as long as this is not the case, there can be no relaxation on the part of the European Union when it comes to imposing new sanctions.”   SUBSCRIBE TO WEST WING PLAYBOOK: Add West Wing Playbook to keep up with the power players, latest policy developments and intriguing whispers percolating inside the West Wing and across the highest levels of the Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.     NIGHTLY NUMBER 12 The number of hours pipeline operators have to report cyber incidents to DHS’ Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Agency, the Transportation Security Administration ordered today, in the Biden administration’s first effort to harden U.S. critical infrastructure after hackers disrupted the East Coast’s gasoline supply three weeks ago. PARTING WORDS THE SHAPE OF THE NEXT CONGRESS — The word “gerrymandering” prompts an image: district maps that look less like a tangible community than a Rorschach blot — perhaps one that suggests a “broken-winged pterodactyl,” as one federal judge referred to Maryland’s 3rd district, writes Zack Stanton in the introduction to his Q&A with Moon Duchin, a mathematician at Tufts University and expert on gerrymandering. Read a line like that, and a certain intuition kicks in: There must be something wrong here. The problem is that our intuition isn’t necessarily correct. “While badly shaped districts are a fairly successful flag that somebody was trying to do something, they don’t really tell us what their agenda was, or whether it was nefarious or benign,” Duchin says. “Bad shapes are not necessarily bad, and good shapes are not necessarily good.” Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   A message from Emergent BioSolutions: At Emergent, we make things you never thought you’d need — until you do. Until you need to counteract an opioid overdose. Or need protection against smallpox, anthrax, cholera, or botulism. And now we’re in the fight against COVID-19. At Emergent, we take on public health challenges. For over 20 years, we have produced therapies and vaccines to help protect public health. And that’s why We Go.     Follow us on Twitter Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam Chris Suellentrop @suellentrop Tyler Weyant @tweyant Myah Ward @myahward   FOLLOW US

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