| | |  | BY JOANNE KENEN | Presented by McDonald's | With help from Renuka Rayasam and Myah Ward THE MISSING VACCINES AND THE DATA BLACK LAGOON — White House officials say they have had trouble accounting for all the vaccine shots sent to the states . As of this morning, 56 million doses have been delivered, and only about 34 million of them ended up in arms. That’s according to the CDC count at 9 a.m. ET at least — a separate state health organization just a few hours later cited a 36 million-in-arms number. Which is as good as any place to start. Let’s just say straight off that — despite what some on Twitter may think about “missing” doses — there’s no massive nefarious disappearing vaccine plot here. You can call off Nancy Drew. There are no signs of a black market being run out of the Trump hotel. Based on what we’ve heard from health officials, state, federal and local, it’s more mundane.
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A patient receives a Covid-19 vaccination in Federal Way, Wash. | Getty Images | Some hospitals are keeping more shots than they probably need to in the freezer because they aren’t yet confident in the supply line as they book appointments, including for second doses. Some smaller vaccination centers in more rural areas dispense fewer shots per day, running down their stock more slowly. And a data system so byzantine that, as Nirav Shah, director of Maine’s CDC, put it, tracking vaccinations can be like comparing “apples to tires.” So it’s really hard to know where each and every one of those vaccines is — in arms, in freezers, with a few discarded. Somewhere, perhaps something may have in fact gone wrong (unreported spoilage, theft). Knowing as much as possible is important as the country tries to do a better job of tracking who is getting vaccinated, who is not getting vaccinated, is it equitable, and how to do it better. State and local officials bristle at being accused of hoarding or mismanagement, and given any chance at all they’ll turn the subject to the supply line. They say they are delivering shots as fast as they can, and as soon as the spigots open, they’ll deliver even more. They say vaccine sites being too conservative about storage should be easing up now that the Biden administration has told them how much they can expect and when over three weeks. A few told me that some health care facilities had more staff than they initially anticipated turn down the shot — but that more of them are now baring their arms as they’ve watched their coworkers get inoculated without harmful effects. So their inventory gaps are closing. But it’s also clear that the coronavirus vaccine tracking system is barely a system. Sometimes hospital workers enter the vaccination in a patient’s electronic medical record — without understanding that it doesn’t connect to the state vaccine registry. Sometimes second doses are double-counted. Sometimes a vaccine distribution site “batches” the data, meaning they do it every few days, not in real time, so it looks like there are more discrepancies. Some reports are “delayed or missing,” the Association of State and Territorial Health Officers executive director Mike Fraser acknowledged in a press call today. And sometimes it’s just the delivery schedule. Vaccines aren’t delivered to states every day — so, Shah said, if you have appointments scheduled for Monday, but you aren’t getting another shipment until Wednesday, you can’t use them all up on Sunday. The “gap” waxes and wanes. Fixing the data systems isn’t going to happen over night. But as the Biden administration asserts, cautiously, that the vaccination drive is getting better, some of the psychology of vaccine hoarding may have already begun to dissipate. State officials are telling providers not to hold back — more is on the way. “Let me worry about getting you the second doses,” Shah said he tells them. “ Do not keep them on the shelves.” Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out at jkenen@politico.com and rrayasam@politico.com, or on Twitter at @joannekenen and @renurayasam.
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| | A message from McDonald's: Yenis started as a crew member at McDonald’s speaking limited English. After taking free English language courses through McDonald’s, Yenis improved her fluency and boosted her career opportunities. Today, she is the training manager for 19 restaurants. Learn how Yenis and others succeed at McDonald’s. | | | | | THE LONG-TERM JOBLESS — Millions of Americans are staring at the reality of long-term unemployment, a precarious and worsening situation that threatens to drag on the economic recovery even after the pandemic begins to subside, Megan Cassella writes. More than one in three jobless Americans — or nearly 4 million people — are now classified as long-term unemployed, which the Labor Department defines as being out of work for six months or more. And that total, which is expected to rise again when January jobs data is released on Friday, is likely an undercount: Combined with another 4 million who have stopped searching for work entirely, roughly one in 20 people who were working a year ago have now been shut out of the labor market for more than six months or dropped out altogether. The phenomenon poses an obstacle to the recovery, because the more time a worker spends out of a job, the longer it takes to return to employment, studies show. The fear among many policymakers is that the swelling ranks of the long-term unemployed will have trouble finding jobs even after the vaccine is distributed because they have spent so much time out of work — contributing to a prolonged period of heightened joblessness and, in turn, jeopardizing Biden’s goals of turning the economy around quickly. The growing problem runs counter to the idea that the U.S. economy and labor market will be able to bounce back quickly to pre-pandemic levels once shutdown orders are lifted and consumers flood back to restaurants and retail stores. And some recent economic forecasts reflect that: The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projected this week that unemployment will remain above pre-pandemic levels through the end of the decade.
| | MTG OUT — The House took the extraordinary step tonight of stripping Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) of her committee posts over a series of incendiary comments and actions by the controversial GOP lawmaker, including endorsing the assassination of Speaker Nancy Pelosi. It is extremely rare for one party in the House to intervene in another’s personnel affairs. But the vote, which occurred mostly along party lines, came after GOP leaders refused to act on their own. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy has denounced Greene’s past actions but rebuffed calls to take away her committee assignments, only offering to reassign her. Eleven Republicans joined all Democrats in voting to remove Greene from the House Education and Budget committees.
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| | TRACK FIRST 100 DAYS OF THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION: The Biden administration hit the ground running with a series of executive orders his first week in office and continues to outline priorities on key issues. What's coming down the pike? Find out in Transition Playbook, our scoop-filled newsletter tracking the policies, people and emerging power centers of the first 100 days of the new administration. Subscribe today. | | | | | | | UPI (UNIVERSAL PARENT INCOME) — A child tax-credit plan from Sen. Mitt Romney got bipartisan support today, with White House chief of staff Ron Klain tweeting that it was "an encouraging sign.” Like the Democrats $1.9 trillion stimulus bill, Romney’s plan would send monthly cash payments to millions of low-income families. But unlike the Democrats’ plan, Romney’s proposal would pay for itself by ending a few existing benefits, including the child tax credit and a program called Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, which provides families with childcare and work assistance. But among experts from across the political spectrum who study poverty, the reception to the plan was less enthusiastic, if for very different reasons. By moving assistance from TANF into direct cash payments, Romney’s plan would promote family instability and discourage people from working, argues Scott Winship, director of poverty studies at the American Enterprise Institute. “Part of being serious about safety net policy is being concerned about unanticipated consequences and perverse incentives,” he told Nightly. “It is the job of caring policy researchers to think about currently struggling people, but also about longer-term outcomes and about the world we create for future people.” He added, “We need to worry that being more generous in the short-term worsens our poverty and opportunity problem in the long run.” Yet Olivia Golden, executive director at the Center for Law and Social Policy, said that Romney’s direct cash benefit would not discourage work or family stability. The opposite is true, she said. People are better able to work if they aren’t worried about their kids going hungry or getting evicted. Still, she prefers the Democratic stimulus bill to Romney’s plan because it adds cash payments without taking away benefits. “It’s important to keep other pieces of the safety net,” Golden said. “We shouldn’t be paying for reducing child poverty by cutting other things that help the wellbeing of low-income people.” Golden also said she’s happy to see a focus on child poverty from both parties. “The status quo is untenable for a lot of reasons,” she said. “In this moment there is so much devastation.”
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| | A message from McDonald's:  
| | | | | — Dems ask Trump to testify, Trump declines: The House asked Trump to testify under oath next week as part of the former president’s second impeachment trial in the Senate. In response, Bruce Castor and David Schoen, Trump’s lawyers for the trial, all but rejected the House’s request. Castor and Schoen called Raskin’s letter a “public relations stunt” and said it confirms that “you cannot prove your allegations” against Trump. — Trump quits SAG-AFTRA: Trump parted ways with the Screen Actors Guild in a bombastic letter as he was facing disciplinary measures with the union. — Pence joins Heritage: Former Vice President Mike Pence is joining the Heritage Foundation as a distinguished visiting fellow, the conservative think tank announced today. — Booker revives “baby bonds”: Sen. Cory Booker introduced legislation today that would create a federally funded savings account for every newborn in the United States, an idea he first proposed several years ago and promoted during his unsuccessful run for president in 2020. — Hunter Biden announces memoir: Hunter Biden, son of President Joe Biden and an ongoing target for conservatives, has a memoir coming out April 6. The book is called Beautiful Things and will center on the younger Biden’s well publicized struggles with substance abuse, according to Gallery Books, an imprint of Simon & Schuster.
| | THE BEGINNINGS OF A BIDEN DOCTRINE — Biden gave his first foreign policy speech as president today from the State Department, where he announced that the United States is pulling back its participation in the war in Yemen and taking steps to aid refugees and members of the LGBTQ community worldwide, Natasha Bertrand, Lara Seligman and Nahal Toosi write. “This war has to end,” Biden said, referring to the conflict in Yemen where Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have been fighting Saudi-led forces. Biden said the U.S. would be ending support for offensive operations there, “including relevant arms sales,” but would continue to help Saudi Arabia “defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity.” It was not immediately clear whether the Yemen announcement was much more than a symbolic move, as the U.S. military currently plays an extremely limited role in the conflict. The Trump administration, under Congressional pressure, ended the practice of providing aerial refueling support to the Saudi-led coalition. Currently the U.S. military’s role is limited to conducting training for the coalition on reducing civilian casualties, and sharing some intelligence related to the defense of Saudi Arabia. Defense officials said they had not yet been given clear guidance by the administration on whether or how these operations will change moving forward. A Pentagon spokesperson declined to comment.
| | COVID COURT IN SESSION — Are you in the middle of a Covid safety argument? Do you have an unresolved disagreement over Covid risk management with a relative or colleague? Ask Renu to issue a ruling! Email your pandemic disputes to nightly@politico.com.
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| | KEEP UP WITH CONGRESS IN 2021: Get the inside scoop on the Schumer/McConnell dynamic, the debate over the filibuster and increasing tensions in the House. From Schumer to McConnell, Pelosi to McCarthy and everyone in between, new Huddle author Olivia Beavers brings the latest from Capitol Hill with assists from POLITICO's deeply sourced Congress team. Subscribe to Huddle, the indispensable guide to Congress. | | | | | | | THE OPEN QUESTION ON REOPENING — The CDC says vaccinations aren’t a necessity for safely reopening schools. But many teachers unions aren’t backing down. In the latest POLITICO Dispatch, California education reporter Mackenzie Mays reports on the fight over reopening schools.
| | | | BIDEN’S MODEST PRISON REFORM — In a move to fulfill a key campaign promise, Biden signed four executive actions last week to address racial inequity — with one order directing the DOJ not to renew contracts with private prison operators. John Pfaff, a law professor at Fordham and the author of Locked In: The True Causes of Mass Incarceration and How to Achieve Real Reform, talked with Nightly’s Myah Ward about the politics of criminal justice reform and what reform might look like in the Biden era. This conversation has been edited. What was your reaction to the executive actions Biden signed — specifically the DOJ order? The direct impact of the executive orders is going to be very small. It applies only to the federal Department of Justice. It doesn’t even apply to all other federal agencies at this point, so it doesn’t cover ICE, for example. The feds hold about 11 percent of all prisoners. About 15 percent of fed prisoners are in private prisons, so that’s about 1.5 percent of the prison population impacted by this order. It doesn’t change the population size. It’ll just change where they're housed. In fact, it was very telling to me that the day Biden announced his order, one of the groups that was most vocally supportive of it was the public sector union that represents the correctional officers in public federal prisons. Because they understood what this order does — that this is not an order that decarcerates. It’s just an order that makes their public sector jobs more secure. My bigger concern is that we focus on this fairly minor actor, the private prison. My argument is that all the pathologies of private prisons, like profiting off people in prison, all of those pathologies exist for the public prisons as well — just at a far vaster scale. So what should Biden do instead? There’s not much policy-wise that Biden can do to change things, certainly at the state and local level. His ability to shape the national conversation is by far his most important power, and to think carefully about how he uses things like executive orders and commutations to shape that discussion. But he’s going to be able to appoint the 93 U.S. attorneys who run the 93 federal districts. And who he chooses as his U.S. attorneys will matter, and they will also matter for local politics. There’s evidence that Department of Justice investigations into police departments can be effective ways of reining in problematic departments. And Biden during the campaign actually suggested he might expand these kinds of DOJ investigations from the police department to also include prosecutor’s offices, which would be something we haven’t really seen that I think could really have an impact. Is there a place you point to as a success with the decarceration effort? The biggest decarceration success in this country has been California. For a while, almost half of the national decline was just California. What caused California to have this huge impact was that they paid attention to the financial incentives of the public sector, not the financial incentives of the private sector. And one of the more perverse incentive issues is that prosecutors are elected and paid for by the county. Prisons are run and funded by the state. So when a prosecutor decides to send someone to prison, it has no fiscal impact on his office. It goes to the state’s budget. Making things worse, if the prosecutor charges someone with a misdemeanor rather than a felony — the lower charge rather than the higher charge — that person’s going to spend his time either in jail or probation. Those are county expenses. So if he’s lenient and charges the misdemeanor, it gets paid for by the same county that pays his budget. They might not be happy about that. Charge with a felony, send them state prison, and now it comes off of your books and goes on to someone else’s. So it’s actually politically safer and financially cheaper. It’s a huge moral hazard problem. California actually told the counties, “Look, for this wide range of offenses, you can still charge them with a felony, but if you charge them with a felony, they have to serve their time in the county jail, not the state prison. We’re going to make you pay for these lower level charges.” And all of the sudden, counties stopped sending people to prison, stopped charging these kinds of cases.
| | HOW TO DRAW 46 — Matt Wuerker has drawn presidents since the Carter administration, and has seen many of the pitfalls and tricks of presidential cartooning. So he asked three fellow cartoonists in the latest Punchlines to share their secrets to drawing Joe Biden.
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| ASSEMBLING THE CABINETRY — Biden has assembled, by some accounts, a history-making Cabinet: If all members are approved, it would be the most diverse array of presidential counselors ever. Can he get them confirmed by the Senate? Democrats’ narrow control of the chamber has made the process far smoother for Biden’s nominees thus far, and the majority have won strong bipartisan support. But Republicans have managed to slow-walk others, who could prove more contentious. If the confirmation battles the Trump and Obama administrations endured in 2017 and 2013 are any indication, there’s no guarantee Biden will have a full bench by the close of his first month. Check out POLITICO’s new Cabinet tracker and follow each of Biden’s picks from nomination to a final floor vote below.
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| | A message from McDonald's: Yenis started working at McDonald’s with big ambitions — but limited English skills. So she seized opportunities to take free English language courses from McDonald’s, helping propel her from crew member to training manager. Today she leads hundreds of training sessions for restaurant employees. And uses her bilingual skills to help others succeed.
There are thousands of stories like Yenis’ at McDonald’s, where restaurant employees can develop skills that are useful throughout their career, helping them learn, grow, and achieve their goals. In addition to resources that support restaurant employee’s development, like English Under the Arches, McDonald’s offers the opportunity to develop work readiness skills sought after by hiring managers across the nation — teamwork, customer service, time management, and responsibility.
Learn how Yenis and others build careers at McDonald’s. | | | Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. | |
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