| | |  | BY RENUKA RAYASAM | Presented by |  |
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| With help from Myah Ward NOT YET — It feels like we are entering a new stage of the pandemic: an inflection point when we attempt to feel our way through how to restart our old lives in less-than-perfect circumstances. Vaccinations are rolling out, more states are relaxing restrictions, businesses are opening up. An end to the acute phase of the pandemic seems to be within sight, even as the threat of a variant-driven surge is lurking. But how will we know when it’s safe to go outside again? What’s the best way to measure the pandemic’s end? Some level of Covid is tolerable. A #CovidZero scenario is extremely unlikely — the virus won’t be completely eradicated, at least not anytime in the next year or so. But at the moment, Covid is still a big risk in most places around the country. Cases, hospitalizations and deaths are coming down from January peaks, but they are still high and might be rising again. The country is recording about 2,000 Covid deaths a day. We’re not in the clear yet. “I think it is a reasonable goal to get Covid-19 numbers down to double or triple digits in terms of new daily cases,” Abraar Karan, an internal medicine physician at Harvard Medical School’s Brigham and Women’s Hospital, told Nightly. “From there, you’re faced with the ‘last mile’ problem, which is elimination — I don’t think that is achievable.”
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Lorraine Harvey, an in-home care worker, receives her first dose of the Covid-19 vaccine from registered nurse Rudolfo Garcia at a clinic at Martin Luther King Jr. Community Hospital in South Los Angeles. | Getty Images | What level of viral spread is considered an acceptable level of risk? “You’d probably get 100 different answers from 100 different public health folks,” Saskia Popescu, an epidemiologist with George Mason University and the University of Arizona, told Nightly. For Popescu, a tolerable level, when we can start resuming normal life, would be around three to five new Covid cases a day per 100,000 people. Right now, we’re at 21 new daily cases per 100,000 in the U.S. according to the Covid Tracking Project. She said to also look for positive test rates at below 3 percent and a transmission rate of below .5. Nationally, the positive test rate is more than 5 percent, according to the CDC. The Covid threat will pass when the U.S. hits about 500 cases a day and about 40 percent of the population has been vaccinated, said Jeffrey Shaman, a professor of environmental health sciences at Columbia University. Right now we’re at 70,000 cases a day. Nearly 14 percent of the population has been vaccinated, according to NPR’s vaccine tracker. But it won’t be epidemiologists who determine our new normal. “This is not a question of science, it’s a question of values,” Arthur Caplan, a bioethics professor at NYU’s Grossman School of Medicine, said. We take risks every day, all the time: when we get into our car, when we sip a drink, when we buy houses with pools and apparently when we use vinyl shower curtains. During this new pandemic stage we are entering, people will start making individual judgments about when their pandemic is over. Do you go to your best friend’s wedding if not everyone in attendance has been vaccinated? See your favorite band if cases are lower, but not low? Send your kids to school without a vaccine approved for children? Hop on a plane as soon as you get your second shot? Not everyone is going to be tracking the seven-day rolling averages of cases, hospitalizations and deaths as they make these determinations. “It’s not numbers-driven anymore,” Caplan said. “It’s a function of guilt, responsibility, shame, exhaustion of lifestyle, feeling like you gotta be rewarded for being good.” “Big changes are coming in what normal means,” Caplan said. We can’t completely go back to the way our lives were a year ago when we were unaware of Covid’s risks. We also can’t live in lockdown forever. Part of the calculation is about how vulnerable we are to Covid versus the benefit of the activity. But we must also consider the risks we force on others. Opening up schools is better for kids, but riskier for teachers. And evidence is mounting that Covid vaccinations prevent transmission, but it’s still uncertain. Caplan is worried that vaccinated people may engage in even riskier behaviors before the pandemic is completely under control because they think they are now safe. Such unintended consequences are known in public health as the Peltzman Effect — the idea that we drive faster when we have better brakes. It will be hard to convince vaccinated people to hold off on wild parties a little longer or to continue wearing masks until cases and deaths come down even more. Shaman thinks we could get to about 500 cases a day by this summer, which would allow people to let their guard down. But one of the biggest threats to that timeline is how people act now. He sees even people who haven’t gotten vaccinated taking more risks as they see others resuming normal life. “I am worried about premature exuberance,” he said. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Kelly Loeffler no longer owns the WNBA’s Atlanta Dream. Reach out with news and tips at rrayasam@politico.com, or on Twitter at @renurayasam.
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A message from the National Hispanic Council on Aging (NHCOA): Our current rebate system is broken. Ensuring discounts are passed on to patients will lower out-of-pocket costs, improve adherence, and address health disparities. The National Hispanic Council on Aging is urging the Biden Administration to support patients and move forward with rebate reform. Learn more. | | | | | REPLY HAZY, TRY AGAIN — Days after the 2020 election, House Democrats convened to address some of the party’s most surprising losses, and Democratic Congressional Campaign Chair Cheri Bustos name-checked one in particular: Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a freshman from South Florida. Party data missed a huge surge to the right in her Miami-based district, where voters backed Hillary Clinton by 16 points in 2016 — and then voted for President Donald Trump by 5 points in 2020, after he rebounded with Cuban Americans and other Latino groups. The 21-point swing toward Trump in the Miami district, which once appeared to be trending deep blue, epitomizes the chaotic, fast-changing political trends of the last four years, which also saw major metro areas from Atlanta to Orange County swing hard toward Democrats, Ally Mutnick and Elena Schneider write. Now, those big shifts are complicating life for both parties, as they try to figure out what those results really meant in preparation for the once-in-a-decade redistricting process. Traditionally, state legislators and political mapmakers rely heavily on recent election results for clues about how communities will vote in the future — baselines they use to gerrymander advantageous districts for their party. But the rapid swings in Trump-era elections make drawing conclusions from those results more complicated this year. And both parties’ strategists know that if they make bad bets, drawing districts based on elections were driven more by Trump’s singular personality than by trends that will persist until 2030, those mistakes could swing control of the House against them over the next decade.
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| | NEW - “THE RECAST” NEWSLETTER: Power dynamics are changing. “Influence” is changing. More people are demanding a seat at the table, insisting that all politics is personal and not all policy is equitable. “The Recast” is our new twice-weekly newsletter that breaks down how race and identity are recasting politics, policy and power in America. And POLITICO is recasting how we report on this crucial intersection, bringing you fresh insights, scoops, dispatches from across the country and new voices that challenge “business as usual.” Don’t miss out on this important new newsletter, SUBSCRIBE NOW. Thank you to our sponsor, Intel. | | | | | | | — FDA panel endorses J&J vax: The shot now becomes a crucial third option to speed up vaccination efforts. Because the vaccine is given as a single dose and is easy to ship, it presents an appealing profile for public health officials struggling to vaccinate hard-to-reach or skeptical populations. — United agrees to $49M fine for mail scan fraud: The Justice Department announced today that United had entered into a non-prosecution agreement and agreed to pay $17 million in criminal penalties and to return funds that were received through a fraud scheme perpetrated by former employees of United’s Cargo Division. — Trump shares plans for new super PAC in Mar-a-Lago meeting: The former president told political advisers Thursday that he’s chosen longtime ally Corey Lewandowski to run a yet-to-be-formed super PAC as part of his expanding post-presidential political apparatus, according to multiple people familiar with the discussion. Trump will speak Sunday at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Orlando. — U.S. diplomat openly calls for Christian nation-states, rails against Jews: A State Department official for several years has been publicly calling for the establishment of Christian nation-states, warning that white people face “elimination” and railing against Jews as well as Black Lives Matter. — Trump endorses primary rival challenging GOP impeachment supporter: Trump threw his support to Max Miller, a former White House aide who launched a campaign against Rep. Anthony Gonzalez of Ohio. Gonzalez, a second-term congressman and former professional football player, said Trump didn’t do enough to quell the Jan. 6 Capitol riot when he voted for the former president’s impeachment a week later.
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| | | | | Nightly asked you: What moment marked the beginning of the pandemic for you? Lightly edited responses are below. We’ll include more of your responses next week. “The cancellation of the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo. The largest event of its kind in the world, the Rodeo engulfs the region for a month. When it got shut down halfway through its run in 2020, I knew we were in trouble.” — Ross Michael, marketing, Houston “After spending 12 days on safari in South Africa and Zimbabwe, my husband and I arrived home in New Jersey on March 19. Although two couples on our tour elected to fly back early, the severity of what we were facing upon our return to the U.S. did not really hit us until we began our lockdown. I now realize we had been blissfully semi-aware (and in semi-denial) of Covid-19 while on a trip of a lifetime.” — Rebecca Harlan, retired, Ventnor, N.J. “My teammates and I (I play Division I golf) were in our hotel room after a practice round for a tournament in St. George, Utah, when CNN exploded with coronavirus news. I recall Rudy Gobert joking about having Covid and touching all of the microphones. We played the first day of our tournament — down one team because their university had recalled the players — and we were uncertain if we’d get another day. We didn’t. That was how my senior season ended and the pandemic started. Oh well.” — Teigen Avery, student, University of Montana, Missoula, Mont. “The National League of Cities’ Congressional Cities Conference, which took place at the Marriott Wardman Hotel in Washington March 7-11. While at the conference, many municipal leaders started to head home because they were hearing about cases coming back at home. Hand sanitizer was being handed out everywhere (and becoming increasingly difficult to find in stores), elbow bumps were common instead of handshakes, and after the conference was over, we learned of two attendees who soon after tested positive.” — Patrick Wojahn, mayor, College Park, Md. “A friend and I were signed up to be volunteer ushers at a performing cats show. Being the cat lovers that we are, we planned to dress up in cat costumes! I was already dressed in my cat ears headband and fake fur vest when we got the call that the show had been cancelled due to the pandemic. That was a year ago.” — Mary Delaplane, costumer, Bogart, Ga. “The postponement of the Céline Dion concert scheduled in Washington for March 11. As bummed as I was/am, it’s probably for the better that unmasked 20,000 fans were not in the Capital One Arena singing that evening.” — Justin Margolis, public affairs attaché for the Government of Québec, Washington, D.C. “St. Patrick’s Day. It was my last day in the office for what turned out to be months. I remember wearing my green shirt while packing up my laptop and papers.” — David Bowsher, attorney, Birmingham, Ala. “Right after our office went from a suggested work from home policy to a mandatory work from home policy, we got the notification that all of Massachusetts would essentially be shutting down after St. Patrick’s Day. My husband and I decided to stock up on essentials to prepare … like beer and wine. Only then, in that strange week that followed, did I realize something was missing … and took a pregnancy test. Yadda yadda yadda … we now have a beautiful, happy and healthy 3 month old.” — Meaghan Carroll, executive assistant, Norwood, Mass.
| | BIDEN’S NO-WIN SITUATION — Progressives say he isn’t going far enough. Moderates in border districts worry he’s going too far. And Republicans see a clear line of attack. On the latest POLITICO Dispatch , immigration correspondent Sabrina Rodríguez reports that when it comes to immigration policy, Biden can’t win.
| | | | KHASHOGGI REPORT OUT, BUT NO MBS PENALTIES — The Biden administration today released a long-secret intelligence report concluding that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman approved the operation that led to the killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018. But the White House chose not to penalize the crown prince directly, with one senior administration official noting that to do so would put the U.S. in an extremely “hostile” position in relation to Saudi Arabia, a key security partner in the region. “We assess that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman approved an operation in Istanbul, Turkey to capture or kill Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi,” the report reads, deeming it “highly unlikely that Saudi officials would have carried out an operation of this nature without the Crown Prince’s authorization.” The release of the report, which was drafted by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, was the first time the U.S. government publicly blamed MBS for Khashoggi’s brutal murder. DEMS PUSH BACK ON BIDEN SYRIA STRIKE — The Biden administration is taking heat from fellow Democrats as lawmakers pressure the White House to provide a legal justification for an airstrike launched Thursday against Iran-backed militia groups in Syria. The White House is pledging to provide a classified briefing early next week and argued the airstrike was consistent with Biden’s constitutional authority to defend the U.S. But the attack has given new ammunition to lawmakers who want to roll back broad presidential war powers authorized two decades ago. Two Senate war powers critics — Democrats Tim Kaine of Virginia and Chris Murphy of Connecticut — argued today that lawmakers need to know why Biden ordered the attack without first consulting them. “The American people deserve to hear the administration’s rationale for these strikes and its legal justification for acting without coming to Congress,” said Kaine, who sits on the Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees.
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| | TUNE IN TO GLOBAL TRANSLATIONS: Our Global Translations podcast, presented by Citi, examines the long-term costs of the short-term thinking that drives many political and business decisions. The world has long been beset by big problems that defy political boundaries, and these issues have exploded over the past year amid a global pandemic. This podcast helps to identify and understand the impediments to smart policymaking. Subscribe and start listening today. | | | | | | | THE WEEK THAT WAS — Matt Wuerker has the best in political satire and cartoons in the Weekend Wrap, including the Mars rover, CPAC and the ongoing vaccination push.
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| | | HELP THE SAUDIS ANYWAY — It is easy to frame the release of the intelligence report on the murder of Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul as an attempt by Biden to “reset” the U.S.-Saudi relationship. Yet, like so many aspects of his nascent presidency, Biden’s approach to Saudi Arabia so far is mostly a reversion to the pre-Trump status quo, rather than an overdue and fundamental shift in policy, Annelle Sheline writes in POLITICO Magazine. But the status quo in Saudi Arabia is unsustainable. As the world shifts away from reliance on Saudi oil, leaders in Riyadh can no longer afford to pay male citizens to sit in an office and female citizens to sit at home, while the real work is done by expat laborers. MBS has accelerated an economic and social transition that is necessary and should be encouraged. Eventually moving toward “normality” will mean either revolution in Saudi Arabia, or a less authoritarian government. Biden should help support Saudi Arabia in this transition. But to avoid the Iran model, i.e., Saudi Arabia going through a violent revolution and 40 years of hostility toward the U.S., Biden should support Saudi normalization, despite MBS’ murderous despotism. Oil and the U.S. military are what keep Arab dictators in power. The global economy is slowly scaling back its addiction to the fossil fuels that are killing the planet. The U.S. can and should stop propping up Arab dictators with weapons sales and instead help wean their economies off of oil. While many rightly consider engagement with MBS distasteful, for the sake of Saudi and American citizens as well as the global climate, Biden should help MBS achieve his more admirable goals while constraining his malignant inclinations.
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A message from the National Hispanic Council on Aging (NHCOA): The National Hispanic Council on Aging is urging the Biden Administration to move forward with rebate reform. Communities of color are disproportionately impacted by chronic disease but lowering out of pocket costs can increase medication adherence and reduce health care disparities in our system. This is done by ensuring rebate dollars are passed on to patients so they can afford essential medication. We need rebate reform today! Learn more. | | | Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. | |
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