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| With help from Renuka Rayasam and Myah Ward WAIT ‘TIL NEXT YEAR — The joy at the near-arrival of the first coronavirus vaccines has been tempered this week by warnings that the U.S. could run into a “vaccine cliff” this spring, when shortages could delay getting the shots to people who don’t fall into high-risk groups. How close will we get to the vaccine cliff? The answers are likely to come early next year, when Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca report results from their late-stage U.S. vaccine trials. Johnson & Johnson is likely to report results in January, but there’s no way to predict what the data will look like. The timing on AstraZeneca’s results is less clear. So far, only two vaccines are in the pipeline for authorization in the U.S. And their makers — Moderna and Pfizer — have inked contracts with multiple nations, all of whom are trying to lay claim to the companies’ limited initial production runs. The U.S. purchased 200 million doses — 100 million from each firm. But because both vaccines require two doses per person, that means that the U.S. orders are enough to vaccinate just 100 million people. The Trump administration says this is by design . It purchased a total of 800 million doses of vaccine from six manufacturers — an approach designed to minimize risk, in case one or more of those shots failed in clinical trials. But the strategy’s success depends on more than just Moderna and Pfizer making it past the finish line. The U.S. preordered 100 million doses of J&J’s shot, and it does have some major potential advantages over its competitors: The vaccine is given as one dose, and can be stored long-term in a refrigerator. It’s based on technology used in vaccines already on the market, and it’s relatively easy to make. By contrast, the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines used mRNA technology that has never before been employed in a successful vaccine, and which requires specialized equipment to manufacture. Pfizer’s shot also requires ultra-cold freezers or dry ice for storage. Even so, there’s no word yet on how J&J’s vaccine is performing in its ongoing trial. And its competitor AstraZeneca — which has agreed to supply the U.S. with 300 million doses of its vaccine — released early data last month that raised as many questions as it answered. Some participants in a U.K. clinical trial mistakenly received a lower first dose than intended — but that lower dose, combined with a standard-strength second dose, proved 90 percent effective in early data. The intended regimen of two standard doses proved just 62 percent effective, for reasons scientists can’t yet explain. The company is now working to collect additional data on the more effective lower dose that could prove whether the early result was a true measure of the vaccine’s strength or a statistical fluke. That leaves those in the U.S. watching the vaccine race play out with an all-too-common answer in the age of Covid-19: The vaccine is on the way. We don’t know exactly when. And don’t throw away those masks just yet. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out at lmorello@politico.com or rrayasam@politico.com, or on Twitter at @lmorello_dc or @renurayasam.
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| | A message from the American Petroleum Institute: Reducing emissions and providing affordable, reliable energy shouldn’t be a choice. We can and must do both. Today, America is leading the world in CO2 emission reductions. As we look toward tomorrow and the future, America’s natural gas and oil companies are working with the country’s brightest minds and organizations to continue that progress while reliably delivering essential energy. Join us to create real, lasting progress – together. | | | | 
President-elect Joe Biden arrives at St. Joseph’s on the Brandywine Roman Catholic Church for Mass in Wilmington, Del. | Getty Images | | | FIRST ON POLITICO: FUDGE HEADS TO HUD — Biden has selected Rep. Marcia Fudge to lead the Department of Housing and Urban Development , according to two people with knowledge of the decision. If confirmed, Fudge would be the first Black woman to run the $50 billion department. Fudge, a member of the House Agriculture Committee, and her allies in the Congressional Black Caucus had lobbied openly to become the first Black female Agriculture secretary, Katy O'Donnell, Tyler Pager and Megan Cassella write. Biden instead chose former Obama Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack. 100 MILLION, 100 DAYS — Biden vowed today to administer 100 million coronavirus vaccinations and reopen most schools during his first 100 days in office , while repeating his promise to mandate face coverings on airplanes, in federal buildings and other places under the government’s control, health care reporter Alice Miranda Ollstein writes. The new pledges came as Biden introduced his picks to lead key health agencies and coordinate the federal response to a pandemic that’s infected almost 15 million people in the U.S. SILENT MAJORITY — Without comment or noted dissent, the Supreme Court rejected a bid by Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Pa.), two other House candidates and GOP activists to overturn Biden’s win in Pennsylvania. BLM VS. BIDEN — Biden hasn’t kept his promise to create a diverse administration, Black Lives Matter co-founder Alicia Garza told Anna Palmer today. “It is really more than unfortunate that we’re not seeing more people who reflect the soul of America, but also reflect the wide range of experiences and frankly the grief and pain that folks have been living under,” said Garza.
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| | LISTEN TO THE NEW SEASON OF GLOBAL TRANSLATIONS PODCAST: Our Global Translations podcast, presented by Citi, examines the long-term costs of the short-term thinking that drives many political and business decisions. The world has long been beset by big problems that defy political boundaries, and these issues have exploded over the past year amid a global pandemic. This podcast helps to identify and understand the impediments to smart policymaking. Subscribe for Season Two, available now. | | | | | | | Welcome to Bidenology, Nightly’s look at the president-elect and what to expect in his administration. Tonight, Biden’s pick of retired Army Gen. Lloyd Austin for Defense secretary. The choice is already facing headwinds, with Democrats on Capitol Hill previewing a potentially rocky confirmation process, and a new generation of national security women disappointed in Michèle Flournoy getting passed over yet again. But the connections between the president-elect and former CENTCOM commander run deep, as shown in an excerpt from Lara Seligman and Bryan Bender’s piece running Wednesday: Austin also developed a close relationship with Biden’s late son, Beau, when he served on Austin’s staff in Iraq in 2008 and 2009, said one source close to the discussions, who asked not to be named to discuss private matters. Austin and the younger Biden attended Mass together, sitting side-by-side almost every Sunday, and they kept in touch after Beau returned from his deployment. Check out politico.com Wednesday morning to read the rest of Lara and Bryan’s piece on Austin’s relationship with Biden, his role in the Middle East and the Syria training debacle.
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17 The number of Senate Democrats who opposed a waiver to exempt Jim Mattis from a law intended to preserve civilian control of the military when Trump nominated him for Defense secretary. |
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| | | | | HOPE … FOR AN HOUR — It took barely an hour for the latest coronavirus relief offer to get shot down: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell suggested today that the best way to reach a stimulus deal in the lame duck is to drop discussions over state and local aid and liability provisions, as Congress remains deadlocked over those two issues, Marianne LeVine and Burgess Everett write. “We cannot leave without a Covid package,” McConnell said. “I have a suggestion to make, which is that the two most contentious items be set aside.” Democrats were unimpressed. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer accused McConnell of “sabotaging” ongoing bipartisan talks and several Democrats said they don’t support his idea. McConnell has long called a liability shield his “red line,” while Democrats have rejected legislation that hasn’t included assistance for state and local governments. The GOP leader suggested those fights can continue next year, given the likely need for another package, first telling his members his view in a conference call and then delivering remarks to the press about a possible compromise. But Schumer warned that leaving out state and local aid would lead to sweeping public sector layoffs and scoffed at the idea McConnell was trying to compromise. NDAA HEADS TO WHITE HOUSE — The House overwhelmingly passed annual defense policy legislation today in the face of a veto threat from Trump, Connor O’Brien writes. Members easily approved the annual National Defense Authorization Act in a blowout 335-78 vote. The total far exceeds the two-thirds majority needed to overturn Trump, who is threatening to nix the $741 billion bill because it doesn’t include a repeal of legal liability protections for social media companies. The bill now heads to the Senate, which is expected to soon vote and send the measure to Trump’s desk. Leaders in both parties have been bullish that the bill will get a strong vote, but there may be some headwinds on an override. The top House Republican leader has said he won’t vote to override a veto and a bloc of conservative Republicans staked out their opposition to the bill.
| | CEO OF NYC? Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang is calling elected officials to gauge support for a possible bid to become New York City’s next mayor, several people involved in the talks tell Sally Goldenberg. Yang, who championed a plan to provide all Americans a $1,000 monthly stipend, is also in talks with Tusk Strategies, the consulting firm that worked on Mike Bloomberg’s 2009 mayoral campaign, the people said. “It sounds like Andrew Yang is running for mayor and seems excited about his path to win,” said one person who spoke to Yang, who has gone to Georgia to volunteer for the U.S. Senate races of Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff. As POLITICO recently reported, Yang’s team conducted a poll testing whether he could succeed as a third-party candidate, but a person familiar with his thinking said he would instead join the crowded field of Democrats vying to win the primary in June 2021. SIM CITY 2021 — We’ve been talking about teleworking for years, but companies resisted, worried it would lower productivity. Then came 2020. “And as a consequence, the way we organize our cities in terms of residences and offices, I think, has changed forever,” said Carlo Ratti, professor of urban technologies at MIT. Nightly’s Myah Ward breaks down the changes: Transportation: Say goodbye to rush hour. Yes, some people will return to their morning sprint to get through the doors at 8 a.m. But others will be in the office only a few days a week, while some will work from home forever. Other employees will head to the office later in the day after a morning meeting or answering emails from home. And cities have a big challenge ahead when it comes to public transit, said Marlon Boarnet, chair of the department of urban planning and spatial analysis at the University of Southern California. Public transit ridership may not return to pre-pandemic levels, and even if it does, riders might not have the services they’re used to as transit officials cut services to survive the financial crisis facing the country’s mass transportation systems. Office Space: Businesses won’t need as much room for hundreds of cubicles. An office will no longer be a place for employees to respond to emails or do other online tasks they could have completed at home. The pandemic has reminded employers that social interaction is important, Ratti said, and businesses need to design these spaces for face-to-face contact and collaboration that Zoom can’t replicate. Residential areas: We’re used to 2020 WFH shenanigans: A messy, makeshift office in the bedroom you’re sick of looking at, a cute kid popping into a meeting or a cat walking across a keyboard. Architects and builders will need to expand homes, Ratti said, with home office spaces a must-have part of the floor plan. Communal workspaces: Restaurants and coffee shops will expand their role as temporary offices for remote workers. In Tokyo, a new Starbucks has an entire floor for people to reserve individual booths or space for group work. Ratti is working on a project to design coworking spaces at the neighborhood level, so that a quiet workspace could just be a walk away from your front door. Outdoor space: Without as many cars on the road, some cities have realized how much space they’ve reserved for cars. Milan and Oakland are just a couple of cities that have made room for walkers and bikers. And your newfound love for curbside pickup or outdoor dining? Those are most likely here to stay too. Policy changes: Cities will have to adapt for workers who can’t telecommute, too. For retail and service workers, Boarnet said, that could mean a higher minimum wage, portable health care that workers can take from job to job, or more flexible hours. The problem, he said, is that cities have been in survival mode as they manage a pandemic, unable to tackle these questions as they try to stay afloat. “I salute what they’re doing, but I don’t think cities have been able to be imaginative in this moment,” Boarnet said.
| | Nightly asks you: Every December, the news media reflects on the lives we lost this year, and 2020 has been especially deadly. Tell us who you’ll miss the most — a family member, a civic leader, a celebrity — and how you’ll remember them. Send us your answers in our form, and we’ll publish select responses this week.
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| | JOIN WEDNESDAY - BATTLING INFORMATION CHAOS IN A PUBLIC HEALTH CRISIS: The extraordinary pace which scientists, doctors, epidemiologists, and hospital staff are working to fully understand the coronavirus can sometimes lead to the wrong information getting published and more accurate information being buried. Join POLITICO for a virtual deep-dive conversation on strategies for improving the flow of accurate and timely findings during a public health crisis. Tune in and hear the executive conversation between POLITICO CEO Patrick Steel and Surescripts CEO Tom Skelton. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | CEOS JOIN VATICAN IN PUSH FOR ‘SYSTEM CHANGE’ — The Roman Catholic Church and more than 100 of the world’s largest investors and companies launched a Council for Inclusive Capitalism at the Vatican seeking fundamental economic change, Ryan Heath emails us. Organizations with $10.5 trillion in assets under management, $2.1 trillion of market value and around 200 million workers in 163 countries are participating, “under the moral guidance of His Holiness Pope Francis,” the council said in a statement. Council founder Lynn Forester de Rothschild told Ryan the body is focused on measurable actions for “true system change,” connected to the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals. Rothschild decried today’s forms of capitalism, where some workers need welfare assistance. “Are you kidding me? You’re a Fortune 500 company and your employees are on the public dole?” she said. “God didn’t create the corporation. The corporation is an invention by society to give limited liability to shareholders. But why should society give that if the shareholders mistreat workers or poison customers or degrade the planet?” Rothschild asked. Mark Carney, a former central banker and now U.N. special envoy for climate action and finance, said in a statement that the council was fundamentally about the “basic social contract” and ensuring “fairness across generations.” The group includes chief executives from “every part of the economic ecosystem,” according to Rothschild. “Guardians” of the project include Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan, Visa’s Alfred Kelly, Mastercard’s Ajay Banga, the International Trade Union Confederation’s Sharan Burrow and Marcie Frost of CalPERS, America’s biggest pension fund, as well as Angel Gurría of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Founding commitments range from expanding loans to low-income families to planting trees on a large scale. “We’re going to fail,” Rothschild said. “We’re not going to just turn on a switch and make greed go away. But one thing that’s nice about being connected to the Vatican is a Christian principle of redemption and forgiveness.”
| | YOU’RE SAYING THERE’S A CHANCE — The overwhelming majority of Americans continue to think Trump stands little chance of overturning his electoral defeat, even after Trump and his legal team spent weeks trying to do so, according to a POLITICO/Morning Consult poll released today. Nearly three-fifths of respondents — 58 percent — said a reversal was “very unlikely” and another 12 percent said it was “somewhat unlikely” that Trump’s endeavor would prevail, for a total of 70 percent. Only 11 percent of those surveyed said it was “very likely” that the 2020 presidential election results would be overturned, and an even smaller cohort — 8 percent — thought it was “somewhat likely.” Ten percent of those surveyed did not express an opinion on the issue. Those figures have shrunk somewhat in recent weeks as the president’s legal challenges have been dealt a string of defeats in court and state legislatures — including a number of scathing rebukes in the form of court decisions — and as the transition effort to carry out a transfer of power has commenced. About 24 percent of respondents said overturning the presidential election was either “very” or “somewhat” likely in a Nov. 17 survey that asked the same question.
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| | A message from the American Petroleum Institute: Even as CO2 emissions have dropped, the U.S. has reduced dependence on foreign energy and became one of the world’s top energy exporters thanks in part to natural gas. Natural gas has helped provide electricity to millions around the world for the first time. All while American families have enjoyed relatively flat household energy costs over the past 15 years while other costs have jumped. We don’t have to choose between making lasting, tangible climate progress and reliable energy; we can and must do both. Join us to learn how we can do even more – together. | | | Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. | |
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