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Friday Afternoon Updates: Trump’s Gulf of Tonkin Moment? — 7/10/26
Is Trump manufacturing a crisis in the Strait of Hormuz?
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Hi all, Ben here. It’s Friday afternoon, and there is a lot to get through, so let’s dive right in.
Here’s what we’re tracking today:
Trump has gone dark, canceling all public events at the White House for the next three days
New satellite tracking shows U.S. aircraft carriers positioned closer to Iran than at any point in this war
WSJ reports Israel warned the U.S. of a fresh Iranian assassination plot against Trump
Gas prices are climbing, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is nearing a genuine crisis point
Diplomatic efforts out of Qatar, Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are trying to pull everyone back from the brink
The White House is quietly renovating and scaffolding sections of the building, including near the West Wing
The West Palm Beach airport was just renamed….after Trump
A new bridge in Tennessee was unveiled bearing…Trump’s name
The family of Lorenzo Salgado Araujo is demanding answers after ICE killed him in Houston, and it’s getting worse
USDA had to walk back its own beef export numbers by 90 percent
Rubio is inviting 60 countries to a meeting about antifa, of all things
New polling shows Trump underwater almost everywhere, including states he just won in 2024
Pennsylvania has lost food assistance for nearly 100,000 people due to GOP bill
The White House is bragging about a “Freedom Fuel” gas station, and it is getting torched for it
Smotrich is quoting Witkoff making a wild comment about Gaza
And Trump says he won’t sign the bipartisan Housing Bill, out of pure spite
Before I go any further, if you haven’t yet joined as a paid subscriber, consider doing so now by clicking here to support our work. This is how we grow. It will give you access to all recaps like this, our exclusive Ask-the-Editor series, and more. Plus, it is the best way to help support the growth of this network.
Okay. Let’s get into it.
Is Trump Manufacturing His Own Gulf of Tonkin?
I want to start with the thing that worries me most, because I think it explains almost everything else going on right now.
Trump has canceled every public event at the White House for the next three days. Closed press, closed press, closed press. That follows him shutting things down yesterday too. At the same time, satellite trackers have spotted the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS George H.W. Bush parked closer to the Iranian coast than they’ve been at any point since this war started over four months ago, a war Trump himself promised would wrap up in a matter of weeks. Here’s my read on what’s happening, and I could be wrong, but the pattern is hard to ignore. Trump is running out of runway on this war. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is approaching what analysts are calling functional tank bottom, meaning the country’s emergency supply cushion is nearly gone. Gas prices just broke an eight week streak of declines and are now climbing toward $3.85 a gallon nationally. He bombed Iran hoping that would force a surrender. It didn’t. And now, with the reserves running thin and the economy at risk, he needs an excuse to escalate further, or an excuse to be seen as the one who was attacked rather than the one attacking.
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That is exactly the shape of the Gulf of Tonkin incident from 1964, when the U.S. claimed North Vietnamese boats attacked American destroyers, an attack that turned out never to have happened, and used it to justify years of war. I’m not the only one raising this. Watching two of America’s largest carriers parked within 250 kilometers of Iran’s coast, with virtually no shipping traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz right now, sure looks like a setup for something.
Meanwhile, Trump posted this morning claiming Iran asked to resume talks and that he agreed, but that the ceasefire is over regardless. Iranian officials are directly denying that any such request was ever made, calling it fake news. So somebody is lying, and it isn’t hard to guess who.
There is a real diplomatic effort underway too. Qatari negotiators have traveled into Iran, and officials from Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have been burning up the phone lines trying to walk this back from the edge. Whether that succeeds before Trump gets his pretext is the question keeping me up at night.
Renovating While Rome Burns
While all this plays out overseas, Trump is still finding time to obsess over White House aesthetics. Scaffolding has gone up, a tarp was dropped over part of the structure near the West Wing, and Trump proudly announced new signage. Our very own Scott MacFarlane caught the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool still fenced off and still that same swampy green color it’s apparently going to stay. There’s also video from our other reporters showing brown water filling a fountain renovation project. Next up on the list, reportedly, are the White House columns.
Speaking of monuments to himself, the West Palm Beach airport was officially renamed after him this week. Eric Trump said his father put Palm Beach on the map. Perhaps from his days partying there with Jeffrey Epstein. Travelers weren’t shy about their reactions, calling it absurd and a waste of taxpayer money to celebrate someone currently sitting in the White House who is an adjudicated sexual abuser. There’s also now a Donald J. Trump Bridge in Tennessee, unveiled by Treasury Secretary Bessent this week. Republicans are sure focused on the important stuff! Definitely not a cult!
The Houston ICE Murder
I have to talk about Lorenzo Salgado Araujo. This is the man who was shot and killed by ICE agents in Houston while driving to work, a 35 year U.S. resident with a wife and three sons. His son Ronaldo has been out demanding an independent investigation, saying his father deserved to live his life, not be reduced to a headline or another statistic.
Now the New York Times is reporting that DHS has admitted Salgado Araujo wasn’t even the person ICE agents were looking for. Agents without body cameras killed him while searching for two other men who weren’t even in the vehicle. There were three other witnesses in that van, and according to a representative for the families, the government is now pressuring those witnesses to self-deport. Kamala Harris, NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani, and others have all spoken out. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is reportedly pursuing criminal charges over the deaths of 17 Mexican nationals in ICE custody. ICE claimed originally that Araujo rammed into them with his car. Multiple eyewitnesses say that’s a lie. Completely made up. The officers say they didn’t have body cameras on. How convenient. This story is not going away, and it shouldn’t.
Data You Can No Longer Trust
Speaking of other agencies you can’t trust… Buried in all the chaos is a smaller story that matters more than it might seem. The USDA had to revise its own beef export numbers down 90 percent this week, after publishing numbers that were simply wrong. 90%. Reuters reports this follows serious staffing losses at the agency and comes after USDA already underestimated corn acreage last year and delayed a trade report that would have shown tariffs contributing to a bigger agricultural trade deficit. When you gut the people who collect the data, you lose the ability to trust the data. That’s not an accident. And it makes every piece of data that comes from this regime suspect.
Freedom Fuel, or Just Expensive Gas With a Slogan
The White House bragged this week about a “Freedom Fuel” gas station in the Philadelphia area selling gas at $3.47 a gallon, as if that were some kind of victory. Except gas averaged $3.12 when Biden left office, and Google Street View shows this exact station selling gas for $3.05 back in April of last year. Commentators didn’t hold back, with one calling it an arsonist bragging about putting out a fire he started himself. Congressman Jim McGovern summed it up about as well as anyone: government subsidized grocery stores are apparently communism, but government branded gas stations are freedom.
The Housing Bill and the Midterms
Trump also announced he will not sign the bipartisan Housing Bill that Congress worked together to pass, saying he’s protesting the Senate’s failure to pass his voter suppression legislation instead. It’s worth remembering the bill still becomes law automatically at midnight unless he formally vetoes it, so this is mostly theater. But it’s also revealing. When Congress actually works together on something as basic as housing affordability, Trump would rather sabotage it than let it happen.
New polling from YouGov and The Economist shows just how unpopular all of this has made him, with negative approval numbers spreading even into states he won in 2024. Pennsylvania alone sits at negative 21 points, and that’s also the state where nearly 100,000 people just lost SNAP benefits as a direct result of the tax bill Republicans passed last year.
Meanwhile RNC Chair Joe Gruters is out there talking about Trump Derangement Syndrome and America Derangement Syndrome like those are real diagnoses, begging supporters for money and volunteer hours because, in his own words, the whole country is apparently under siege from socialism and the solution is to give your “treasure” to the Republican Party.
A Poem From Our Own Dina Doll
Before I sign off, I want to leave you with this poem from MeidasTouch legal contributor Dina Sayegh Doll. It’s called “Freedom,” and I hope you find is as powerful as I do. Please feel free to share it.
Freedom
“You are free to do as you want.” Just do this first.
“We are born free.” In the right country, state, city, neighborhood, house, family.
“We have freedom of speech.” Just watch what you say.
“Freedom of Religion.” As long as it’s the same.
“Our press is free.” Unless you disagree, in which case it is fake.
“Freedom to organize.” Not too many of you though.
“You are free to walk across a street.” When you are allowed.
“Freedom to picket.” As long as you don’t disturb anything important.
“We fight for Freedom.” But we’re not free not to.
“We are free to make money.” And our employers are free to take too much.
“Freedom of choice.” Of the choices left.
“Freedom to listen to all words.” That don’t offend any.
“Everyone gets a free education.” At first you’re forced to learn, then you can’t afford to.
“Freedom to educate.” Whatever politicians allow.
“You are free to write.” What the algorithm will accept.
“We are free to love.” Finally, maybe, until the Court says otherwise.
“We are free to vote.” For whoever raised the most money.
“There are freedoms around us.” Underneath somewhere.
“Democracy is free.” For the highest bidder.
“We are free to wear what we want. “ As long as we wear something.
“You are free to control your life.” But not your death.
“You are free to get on an airplane.” With the proper ID.
“You have the freedom to drive.” At a certain speed.
“We are free to carry guns.” Without regard to sex, race, religion or mental state.
“We are free to own property.” When we finish paying the bank.
“We are free to enjoy our beaches.” If we pay for parking.
“Nature is free.” And everywhere it is being destroyed.
“We have the freedom to think.” In the mainstream.
“You are free to express yourself.” In the proper way.
“We are free to live our lives.” If we can survive.
“We are free to enjoy our liberty.” If we can find it.
“We are free to be happy.” If we know what it is.
“We are free to pursue the freedoms our country was founded on.” If they still exist. Or ever did.
By Dina Sayegh Doll
Thanks again for reading and thanks to Dina Doll for her poignant poem. Keep checking back to this Substack for more content throughout the day, including a new episode of Meidas Defense and a new bulletin from Ron Filipkowski. Thanks to all those who have shared and gifted this Substack to a family member or friend. I’ll see you soon.
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