 | By Paul Demko and Liz Crampton | | A woman jogs in front of the State Capitol in Madison, Wisconsin, on January 17, 2021. | Kamil Krzaczynski/AFP via Getty Images
| LOCAL IS NATIONAL — It happened over a decade ago, long before the onset of the Trump era, but Democrats are still trying to recover from the historic drubbing they took in state legislative races in 2010. Republicans won a staggering 680 seats across the country and took control of 22 state legislative chambers in a single night. When President Obama acknowledged that Democrats took “a shellacking” in the midterms, he may have been primarily speaking about congressional races, but it was an even more apt description of the electoral carnage they suffered in state capitals across the country. The ramifications of that GOP wave are still being felt today in state capitals across the map. In states like Wisconsin, North Carolina and Ohio, Republicans seized on their newfound power — and fresh Census data — to craft new legislative maps tilted decisively in their favor and dominate state House and Senate races for a decade. That’s enabled them to push through major conservative policy priorities like toughening voter restrictions, scrapping environmental protections and stoking culture wars over issues like LGBTQ rights and school curriculums. Democrats have made steady inroads in recent cycles, pushing the balance of power in statehouses back in their favor. A huge shift occurred in 2022 when they secured ruling trifectas in Michigan and Minnesota, while flipping the Pennsylvania House. They are counting on taking another important step forward on Tuesday. But Republicans begin with an edge. They currently hold 55 percent of state legislative seats, according to Ballotpedia , and maintain majorities in 56 legislative chambers, compared to 41 for Democrats. While Democratic gains in 2022 were centered mostly on the Midwest, Republicans strengthened their power in the South, widening margins in states like West Virginia, Kentucky, Florida and the Carolinas. There’s also been a hardening of partisan divides in state capitals — increasingly mirroring the rancor on Capitol Hill. More than 80 percent of Americans now live in states where one party has complete control of the government, with a roughly even split among those residing in Democratic and Republican-led states. Those dynamics are certain to change on Nov. 5. Over at POLITICO’s The Fifty, reporters have been traveling to battlegrounds to get a ground view of the most competitive state legislative races, with dispatches from Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Pennsylvania. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee — the main group focused on winning power in the states — points to boosted fundraising and increased collaboration with aligned groups, like The States Project, as reasons for confidence about their prospects. But they also acknowledge that many of these races could be as tight as the presidential contest — and they’re bracing for the likelihood of numerous recounts, which would bring prolonged uncertainty and add to the tense political environment. Two of the biggest opportunities for Democrats to make further inroads are in Wisconsin and Arizona. After the Wisconsin Supreme Court struck down the state’s gerrymandered legislative maps, Democrats have their best chance in a decade to eat into Republicans supermajorities in the Assembly and Senate. Arizona is tantalizing for a different reason: Democrats are currently just one seat short of flipping both the state House and Senate. If they succeed, it would solidify the party’s recent upsurge — including winning the governor’s race and flipping a Senate seat — in the rapidly growing Sun Belt state. New Hampshire is also a top target. Republicans have slim majorities in both chambers, and control has flipped back and forth between the parties for decades. Yet Democrats are also playing defense in states where they’ve made recent inroads. In Michigan and Minnesota, in particular, Republicans are eager to pillory them for veering too far left and pushing through huge spending increases. In Pennsylvania, the only state in the nation with a divided legislature, Democrats are nervous about losing the House. Total Republican control would serve as a strong foil to Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro and possibly impede his national ambitions. The last two years of divided control in Washington have spotlighted the degree to which state lawmakers are driving the country’s policy agenda. On issues like privacy protections, school vouchers and abortion access, gridlock on Capitol Hill has empowered state legislatures to fill the void. While the outcome in Nov. 5 remains up in the air, there’s one thing that is clear: Much of the country’s most important legislative action will remain in the states. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s authors at pdemko@politico.com or lcrampton@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @pauldemko and @liz_crampton.
| | ****RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA! DON'T BELIEVE IT!****
IT'S ALL RUSSIAN LIES! IT'S NOT HAPPENING! IT'S NOT IN GEORGIA! IT'S NOT HAITIAN IMMIGRANTS! RUSSIA IS JUST STOKING HATE & DIVISIVENESS! — Russia to blame for election misinformation video targeting Georgia, officials say: U.S. intelligence officials today blamed Moscow for manufacturing a widely circulated video that purported to show Haitian immigrants voting illegally in Georgia — the second effort to call out Russian disinformation in a swing state in the last week. It comes after U.S. authorities said last Friday that the Russians had also fabricated a separate viral video that appeared to show someone ripping up ballots in Pennsylvania. Like too many MAGA GOP, they depend on making statements WITH NO FACTS! PENNSYLVANIA's GOP VOTER SUPPRESSION has been misrepresented....REPUBLICANS have failed to update their VOTING LAWS, including preventing MAIL-IN BALLOTS from being counted until POLLS close. It's time to insist that MAGA GOP provide evidence, information & sources. CRYPTO SCAMMER JOHN DEATON is conducting a similar DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN in Massachusetts! — Hugh Hewitt resigns from Washington Post after storming out of live interview: Conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt resigned today from his columnist position at The Washington Post , he confirmed to Fox News, after walking out on a live interview on the paper’s video platform — the latest blow to the Post after facing widespread blowback over halting presidential endorsements. Hewitt stormed out during a live broadcast of the Post’s show “First Look” during a discussion this morning about former President Donald Trump is laying the groundwork to potentially contest the election, leaving host Jonathan Capehart and fellow guest Ruth Marcus stunned.
excerpt: “We are newspeople, even though we have opinions, and we have to report the whole story if we bring up part of the story,” Hewitt said during a heated exchange over a GOP Pennsylvania voting lawsuit he reminded viewers “was successful.” “I don’t appreciate being lectured about reporting when, Hugh, many times you come here saying lots of things that aren’t based in fact,” Capehart replied. — White House altered Biden transcript: Late Tuesday, as Joe Biden’s comment referring to Donald Trump’s supporters as “garbage” created a firestorm, top communications aides inside the White House broke with protocol, amending the official transcript of his comment — without waiting for sign-off from the stenography office. The edit was a single apostrophe — but one freighted with political and electoral implications.
| | THE POLLING CASE FOR HARRIS — For eight years, pollsters have been striving to accurately capture former President Donald Trump’s level of support among voters. Even today, on the eve of his third campaign for the presidency, there’s no confidence they’ve nailed it. It raises a question that not enough people are asking: If it’s taken that long to adjust for Trump, is 100 days enough to accurately poll potential Vice President Kamala Harris voters? It’s not just an academic question. There’s reason to believe that, just as proved to be the case with Trump, there is a fuller range of Harris voters who aren’t being measured. THE BREAKING OF AN AMERICAN FAMILY — The Johnson Brothers of Centralia, Illinois haven’t always been this divided, but then again neither has America. POLITICO Magazine spent the last few months with Ted and Fred Johnson, two estranged brothers with opposite political beliefs (Fred despises former President Donald Trump, while Ted is all in on MAGA), which had fractured them even before 2016. Although they shared similar beginnings in the same house with the same parents, both basketball players and army men, their paths diverged with age, impacted by their individual trauma and politics. Their story is a tale of love and betrayal, hope and distrust — themes all too familiar to those covering the splintering of America over the past eight years. FATES INTERTWINED — In 2020, Stacey Abrams and Kamala Harris were on the top of Joe Biden’s list of vice presidential choices, and Abrams was fired up: “As a young Black girl growing up in Mississippi, I learned that if I didn’t speak up for myself, no one else would, so ... ‘Yes, I would be willing to serve,’” she declared on NBC in April of 2020. Now, Harris’ fate is again intertwined with Abrams, as the vice president tries to replicate Biden’s surprise victory in Georgia — a victory largely credited to Abrams’ vision and fundraising prowess. But compared to 2020, when she was at her political peak, Abrams is something of a diminished figure, and there are doubts about whether her legacy is strong enough to rouse voters and help Harris eke out a victory — even if she makes a real effort. RFK JR has no science education, has LIED repeatedly...maybe it's the BRAIN WORM. Contradicts himself in his comments that can be documented...claimed COVID was BIO-ENGINEERED...claimed vaccines caused autism & when that was discredited, blamed it on 5G WITH NO EVIDENCE! Stupid people don't belong in charge of HEALTH! RFK’S BIG HEALTH CARE ROLE — Donald Trump said today that if he wins the presidency, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will “have a big role in health care.” When asked if he is comfortable with Kennedy taking an unspecified health care position despite his views on vaccines, Trump said “he has some views I happen to agree with strongly and I have for a long time.” Kennedy, who ran for president in the Democratic primary and then as an independent before endorsing Trump this summer, has made false claims about the safety of vaccines, as well as founding — and taking leave from — the anti-vaccine group Children’s Health Defense. Trump’s comments today come after the former president told former Fox News host Tucker Carlson during an Arizona rally that Kennedy “can do anything he wants” with regard to health care and vaccines. DEMO GROUPS TO WATCH — In an election that appears as close as this one, any segment of that electorate — no matter how small — could be decisive. The roughly 150 million citizens who will vote in this year’s presidential election can be divided up into any number of geographic and demographic subgroups. But some are more likely to tip the scales than others. So here are five subgroups to watch— and where in the battleground states you can find them.
| | | Lebanese army soldiers stand guard in front of a car. | Mohammed Zaatari/AP
| DEADLY ATTACK — Rocket barrages from Lebanon into northern Israel killed four foreign workers and three Israelis today, Israeli medics said, the deadliest cross-border strikes in Israel since it invaded Lebanon. Israel kept up airstrikes it says targeted Hezbollah militants across Lebanon, where health authorities today reported 24 people killed. U.S. diplomats were in the region pushing for cease-fires in both Lebanon and Gaza, hoping to wind down the wars in the Middle East as the Biden administration enters its final months. Pressure has been building ahead of the U.S. election next week. GREEN ON GREEN — Green politicians from across Europe today called on U.S. Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein to withdraw from the race for the White House and endorse Democrat Kamala Harris instead.
JILL STEIN WAS NOT READY FOR PRIME TIME WHEN SHE RAN FOR GOVERNOR & THE SAME HOLDS TRUE! SHE IS UNABLE TO ACCOMPLISH ANYTHING OR ORGANIZE BEYOND TRASHING DEMOCRATS. DOES NOT WORK WELL WITH OTHERS! JILL STEIN PROMOTED A RECOUNT IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION & SHE NEVER FOLLOWED THROUGH. JILL STEIN STILL HASN'T LEARNED! “We are clear that Kamala Harris is the only candidate who can block Donald Trump and his anti-democratic, authoritarian policies from the White House,” Green parties from countries including Germany, France, Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, Ireland, Estonia, Belgium, Spain, Poland and Ukraine said in a statement, which was shared with POLITICO ahead of publication. BIG BRAWL — Hundreds were involved in a shootout and brawl over drug trafficking that seriously injured five in the French city of Poitiers, Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau said today. What began as a shooting outside a restaurant on Thursday night descended into a massive fight between rival gangs involving “between 400 and 600 people,” Retailleau told BFMTV/RMC radio, though BFM said it hadn’t yet been able to confirm the figures. The outlet reported that among those hurt was a 15-year-old who sustained serious wounds to the head. Mayor Léonore Moncond’huy said that the incident was “unacceptable” in a statement on X. She added that the “youth of those involved” was “particularly worrying.”
| | | |
MUST READ!
Harris’ takeover for Biden marked an inflection point for Democratic giving. Through Oct. 16, the most recent data available, the Biden-turned-Harris operation had accumulated more than 7 million donors, up from about 5.3 million that the Biden campaign had at the same stage in 2020.
| | | WATERMARKED — People are mistaking artificial intelligence-generated text and photos for real ones at an alarming rate. The newest idea to stop that problem is an old-fashioned one: watermarking AI-generated images and text. The idea wouldn’t necessarily look exactly like the Getty Images watermarks of old, but there would be a way to discern easily whether something had been AI-generated. The concept comes from DeepMind, Google’s AI Research Lab, which has now made the tool widely available. There remain ways to circumvent it — but it’s a potentially game-changing tool. Sarah Grevy Gotfredsen reports for the Columbia Journalism Review.
| | | On this date in 1983: A People's Revolutionary Army suspect is escorted across the tarmac at Point Salines Airport in St. George’s, Grenada. The U.S. military invaded the small island out of fear of Cuban-Soviet militarization. | Pete Leabo/AP
| Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. | |
|
| | Follow us on Twitter | | | Follow us | | |
| |
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.