POLITICO Nightly: The GOP’s big-donor problem

 

BY CALDER MCHUGH Former President Donald Trump attends an election-night watch party at Mar-a-Lago on March 5. | Win McNamee/Getty Images CASH IS KING — The Republican Party has been transformed since former President Donald Trump became its standard bearer. So, too, have its donors. Forget about the party of the country club. Republicans — and in particular, Trump — have in recent election cycles relied increasingly on small-dollar donations to power their campaigns. In an inversion of their donor bases, Democrats have built a significant large donor advantage that’s powered their local, state and national election prospects. In the 2020 cycle, big donors — those who gave $100,000 or more — who contributed only to Democrats contributed $5.2 billion, according to FEC data analyzed by OpenSecrets . Only-Republican big donors chipped in $3.3 billion, a huge number that nevertheless left them trailing by almost $2 billion. At the presidential level in 2020, 45 percent of Trump’s cash came from small donors (those giving $200 or less) while just 38 percent of Biden’s haul came from that group. The evolution of the fundraising bases is another sign of the transformation of the major parties during the Trump era, with the Republican coalition becoming more populist and working-class oriented , and Democrats picking up the affluent suburbs and voters with higher levels of educational attainment. Some of it can be attributed to Trump himself. Many traditional Republican big donors are Trump skeptical, donating huge sums to his erstwhile primary rivals and now, in part, pivoting to supporting down ballot Republicans at the expense of the billionaire who will head the GOP ticket. And while Trump has secured some big money backers and made overtures to others, CNBC reports that some donors are hesitant to give cash even to the Republican National Committee , amidst concerns that their money will be used to pay for the former president’s legal defenses rather than campaigns. There are signs that GOP billionaires who are concerned Biden would try to raise their taxes in a second term are coming around to Trump . His allies are planning a fundraiser in Palm Beach on April 6 that they are hoping will raise $33 million — an event designed to top Biden’s eye-popping $26 million March 28 New York fundraiser. In that event, Biden’s campaign combined the star power of the last three Democratic presidents with entertainers like Stephen Colbert in order to attract cash from high-powered New York finance and tech types. Trump is trying to do something even bigger in Florida, with the help of billionaire investor John Paulson, who is hosting. Still, with Trump unlikely to match Biden’s large donor advantage overall, he is relying on a small donor online fundraising operation that was humming in 2020 — but is currently lagging, with worries from Republicans that small donors are burnt out . Biden has a big fundraising advantage this year in part due to his large donor advantage, but he’s also beating Trump among small donors. This cycle, Biden has outraised his rival among those donating under $200 by $60 million to $34 million, and small donors also make up a larger percentage of the president’s overall fundraising total, at 47 percent to Trump’s 36 percent. Last year, small donations were down across the board compared to 2020 , but the problem is currently affecting Trump more acutely — his campaign has $33.5 million cash on hand compared to Biden’s $71 million according to March’s FEC reports. In December, AdImpact projected that total spending on political advertising could top $10 billion for the first time ever. And while there’s only so many airwaves and websites that can carry ads, an overall fundraising advantage for Biden’s joint fundraising committee can allow Democrats to direct spending to other areas of need as well, from Senate races to attempts to win back statehouses. Trump’s ability to attract small donors has been essential to his electoral prospects in the past, and will continue to be important as small donations are becoming a larger percentage of overall spending. But if he and his Republican allies are unable to continue to juice small donations to close the overall fundraising gap to Biden, that’s an ominous development in 2024.   Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh .   SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, the newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world, including WEF in Davos, Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to UNGA in NYC and many more. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW .     WHAT'D I MISS? — Florida Supreme Court issues major rulings on abortion: The Florida Supreme Court has upheld the state’s ban on abortion at 15 weeks of pregnancy but also ruled that a ballot initiative seeking to protect the procedure can go before voters in November. The state high court’s ruling upholds the state’s previous abortion laws but also could deliver a stunning blow to Gov. Ron DeSantis and state Republicans by giving voters a say on abortion in the upcoming election. — Johnson eyes Russian assets in Ukraine funding fight: Congress is gearing up to give President Joe Biden a powerful new financial tool to strengthen Ukraine, in a move that could redefine modern economic diplomacy. At issue is bipartisan legislation approved by House and Senate committees that would let the administration confiscate around $5 billion to $8 billion in Russian sovereign assets under U.S. jurisdiction and use the money to help finance Ukraine’s recovery. Discussions on the plans are expected to ramp up in the coming weeks as Congress hashes out a new Ukraine aid bill. — U.S. weighs selling new fighter jets, missiles and guidance kits to Israel: The U.S. government is considering major new weapons sales to Israel of fighter jets, air-to-air missiles and guidance kits , as calls grow for the U.S. to withhold arms if Israel won’t do more to limit civilian casualties in Gaza. The Biden administration is weighing selling Israel up to 50 new F-15 fighter jets, 30 AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles, and a number of Joint Direct Attack Munition kits, which turn dumb bombs into precision-guided weapons, according to a congressional aide and a person familiar with the discussions. NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024 GEORGIA ELECTION RULES — Republican-backed legislation headed to Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s desk would establish new rules for challenging voters’ eligibility and make it easier to qualify for the presidential ballot – changes that could have consequences in this fall’s elections in a closely watched battleground state, CNN reports. Late last week – just before wrapping up their legislative session – state lawmakers approved a broad elections measure that would allow “any political party or political body” that has obtained ballot access in at least 20 states or territories to qualify for Georgia’s presidential ballot. That could benefit third-party or independent presidential candidates in a state that Joe Biden narrowly carried over Donald Trump in 2020. SUBSTANCE-FREE — The ambiguity of Donald Trump’s rhetoric about the Israel-Hamas war has let different audiences hear what they want in his public statements , writes the New York Times. He has said nothing of substance about what he would do differently from Joe Biden on Israel policy if he were president, and his team again refused to get into specifics when questioned by The New York Times. Given that void, right-wing supporters of Israel are parsing every utterance from Trump, worried that in a second term he might not be as reliable an ally as he was in his first term, when he gave Netanyahu nearly everything he wanted, including moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem and recognizing Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights. AROUND THE WORLD Emergency and security personnel inspect the site of a building annexed to the Iranian embassy in Damascus today. | Louai Beshara/AFP via Getty Images ESCALATING QUICKLY — An explosion in the Syrian capital, Damascus, has leveled an Iranian diplomatic mission and killed a senior commander in Tehran’s armed forces , Syrian and Iranian media claimed today. In what could be a dramatic escalation in the conflict in the Middle East, Iran said the blast resulted from a strike by Israeli warplanes. Six people are reported to have died, including Mohammad Reza Zahedi, an officer in Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards Corp. According to Iranian state media, several diplomats were also killed, although the ambassador, Hossein Akbari, is reported to have been unharmed. Photos and videos from the scene appear to show the building flattened, with emergency services personnel sifting through the rubble. Responding to the news, Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad “strongly condemned” the alleged attack and said “the Israeli occupation entity will not be able to impact ties between Iran and Syria.” Tehran has provided military support to the Syrian regime since the start of the country’s civil war in 2011. BLOW TO ERDOGAN   — Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan suffered a major blow on Sunday , with initial results showing the country’s main opposition party notched up regional election victories around the country, POLITICO EU reports. The opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) held onto or captured the country’s five biggest cities in Sunday’s vote, which had been seen as a make-or-break moment for a movement still reeling from Erdoğan’s victory in the Turkish presidential contest in May 2023. The CHP saw its biggest triumph in Istanbul, where Ekrem Imamoğlu was reelected mayor. Europe’s biggest city, Istanbul accounts for 18 percent of Turkey’s population and a third of its economy. In his victory speech delivered late Sunday, Imamoğlu said the local election results would have big implications for the country’s political future. “Turkey will blossom into a new era in democracy as of tomorrow. March 31, 2024 is the day when democratic erosion ends and democracy begins to recover,” he told a big crowd in Istanbul. Imamoğlu is seen as a future challenger to Erdoğan, and winning the city which catapulted the current president to national prominence when he won the mayorship 30 years ago is a symbolic achievement. Erdoğan conceded defeat and promised to listen to the message delivered by Turkish voters. “March 31 is not an end for us, but a turning point,” he said.   Access New York bill updates and Congressional activity in areas that matter to you, and use our exclusive insights to see what’s on the Albany agenda. Learn more .     NIGHTLY NUMBER 1 The number of avian flu cases discovered in humans today , raising concern among health officials that one person infected could lead to a larger outbreak, though there’s no current evidence that the disease is being spread person to person. RADAR SWEEP MARKET RATES — Does the best vodka brand cost between $10 and $25 at Costco? Industry experts seem to agree that the Kirkland brand vodka is as good, if not better, than far more expensive items. So why are people still interested in vodkas that can run over $100 for a bottle? According to Scott Nover , who reported on the phenomenon for Slate, and experts he spoke with, vodka prices are almost entirely determined by marketing . No matter what it is, every brand is in some ways a product of its marketing department. But vodka, due to the fact that companies that make it regularly emphasize how “smooth” (or tasteless) it is, making it a good spirit to mix with something else, is particularly susceptible to a good marketing campaign. Vodka brands do taste much different from one another. But those differences in taste rarely correlate directly to value. It’s an interesting lesson in how we appreciate — and internalize — a marketing campaign. PARTING IMAGE On this date in 1990: More than 20,000 Ukrainians defied an official ban and rallied at the Republican Stadium Square in Kyiv to voice their support for the Lithuanian independence. | AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   FOLLOW US

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