One week from today, Americans will finish voting. I can’t tell you how good it feels to type that.
I’ve got some big news for you, but before we jump in, be sure to hit the like button and restack. That’s how we put this edition in front of your followers.
Over the next seven days we will continue to release investigations into Republican Senate candidates. We’ll also keep dominating the trends on social media with coordinated messaging in support of progressives and against MAGA. Our pressure campaigns on members of Congress haven’t slowed down a bit. After the election, we will keep the pressure on the Congress still in office through December. And then on the new one the day it’s sworn in. We will make sure they do what they promised.
We proudly do it all completely independent of advertisers and corporate influence, which means we rely only on this amazing community here for every bit of our funding.
So if you’ve yet to, join us as a paid subscriber now to keep us going strong. You’ll unlock exclusive member benefits like my daily campaign briefing, and a seat with me live on election night to watch the returns come in. Join us.
Last Tuesday, George W. Bush’s younger brother Neil Bush did something he rarely does. He posted a political message on Facebook. “I voted early today, and I voted for James Talarico for the United States Senate,” he wrote. “I have been a Republican for most of my life,” he added, but “character matters more than party affiliation.”
One reason he gave for his support was Ken Paxton’s 2020 lawsuit, in which Paxton asked the Supreme Court to block election results in four states Joe Biden won. The court threw it out just four days later. Bush called the lawsuit “an affront to our democratic institutions and the peaceful transfer of power.”
Earlier that year, eight of Paxton’s top aides reported him to the FBI. He fired four of them. In April 2025 a Texas judge ordered $6.6 million to be paid to those former employees. Paxton dropped his appeal three months later.
Neil is the second Bush to back Talarico. FEC filings show that George W.’s daughter Barbara gave $2,500 to a group working to elect Talarico.
The race is neck and neck. Of the two newest polls, taken in mid-October, one had Talarico up 51 to 47. The other had it tied at 49. Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988—next Tuesday, Texans can end that streak.
In the spring of 2020, reporter Matthew Cole got a call from one of his trusted sources, claiming that Dutch intelligence was watching Jared Kushner’s phone.
Cole reports that Russian military intelligence hacked Kushner’s iPhone while he was working as a senior adviser in Trump’s first term. He added that the Dutch then gained access as well. Cole writes that the Dutch watched Kushner log into a Dubai bank account. A source told Cole that Kushner appeared to send money from the account to a warlord, a mercenary, and a former hitman.
Kushner says the claims are “outrageous fabrications.”
If Cole’s right, Kushner couldn’t even keep Russian spies out of his own phone. Now he’s sitting across the table from Russia, Iran, and others—negotiating for America. Earlier this month, the ethics watchdog CREW sued to block Kushner from the envoy job until he discloses his finances. The White House calls him a volunteer.
Whatever Jared Kushner is, he should be nowhere near America’s secrets. A Democratic Congress can put him under oath and get actual answers. A Republican one would never do that. Remember that when you vote.
On Monday, October 19—the first day of early voting—104,660 people voted in person in Harris County, Texas. The previous midterm record for day one was 63,188, set in 2018. By Sunday, more than 620,000 people there had voted, according to the county elections office. That’s about 22.6% of the county’s registered voters. At the same point in 2022, it was 15.5%.
In Dallas County, turnout jumped from 14.9% to 24.9%. Across Texas, about 4.5 million people had voted by Sunday, according to the Texas Secretary of State, and in-person turnout was running about 58% ahead of four years ago.
In Georgia, more than 188,000 people voted on the first day, a midterm record, and more than a million had voted within a week. ABC News found the early vote in Georgia and Iowa is running about 18 points more Democratic than it was in 2024.
We’re seeing these trends in states all over the country. According to an Associated Press analysis, more than 13 million people had voted nationwide by October 20, compared with 9 million at the same point in 2022.
This kind of massive early turnout is exactly why Trump has been attacking voting for so long. Trump wanted empty polling places. He got lines out the door instead.
In 2007, Barack Obama drove to Greenwood, South Carolina, on a rainy day to meet a small crowd. A Greenwood County councilwoman named Edith Childs stood up and started a chant: “Fired up! Ready to go!” Before long the whole room was chanting with her. He carried those words all the way to the White House.
On Saturday, he brought them to Cleveland, where he filled the Public Auditorium for Sherrod Brown and Amy Acton. As president, Obama struck a deal that capped Iran’s nuclear program—before Trump tore it up in 2018 and started a war this year. “I didn’t have to fire a missile to do it,” Obama reminded the crowd. Then he joked that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is “very focused on important matters like the jaw lines and testosterone levels of our troops.” The place roared. Obama didn’t mince words: “These are not serious people.”
That night, about 4,000 people crowded into Cass Technical High School in Detroit for Abdul El-Sayed and Jocelyn Benson. There, Obama warned that Republicans might use El-Sayed’s name and faith to scare people. “We have seen this movie before. I starred in it. I’ve got a long-form birth certificate to prove it.”
Trump has spent years trying to erase Obama, and Obama is still the one packing the rooms. On Wednesday he’s in Atlanta with Jon Ossoff and Keisha Lance Bottoms. We’re fired up, and we’re ready to go.
Republicans are spending to save seats they used to take for granted.
The Senate odds keep climbing. Nate Silver’s forecast now gives Democrats a 76% chance of winning the Senate, with an average projection of 52 seats. In Ohio, a Fox News poll taken October 15 to 19 had Democrat Sherrod Brown ahead of GOP Sen. Jon Husted, 52% to 47%. Obama rallied with Brown in Cleveland on Saturday.
Republicans are defending Mississippi. Trump won the state by 23 points in 2024. It’s been 44 years since a Democrat was elected to the Senate from there. But the Senate Leadership Fund, a top GOP super PAC, started buying ads to protect GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith against Democrat Scott Colom. Trump even flew to Mississippi to rally for her on Monday.
Every House change is going our way. On Friday, October 23, the Cook Political Report moved 19 House races toward Democrats. Since July, the three main election forecasters changed their House calls 95 times—every one in our favor. Forecaster Nate Silver now gives Democrats a 95% chance of winning the House.
Democrats are fighting on red turf. Trump won GOP Rep. Eli Crane’s Arizona district by 15 points, but Cook now rates it as Lean Republican. House Democrats’ campaign arm put TV ads on air there last week. Cook gave the same rating to GOP Rep. Nick Begich’s Alaska seat. Trump won that by 13 points. The same happened to an open Nevada seat he won by 14.
The early vote surges. As of Tuesday morning, more than 32.5 million Americans had already voted. Michigan shot past 986,000 ballots on Friday—that’s 13.3% of active voters. North Carolina neared 1.5 million early ballots, with more than 207,000 of them coming from people who waited until Election Day four years ago. And in Nevada, Democrats led Republicans by at least 19,400 ballots as of Sunday night.
The Bottom Line: Forecasters favor Democrats to win both chambers, and Republicans are spending to hold a state Trump won by 23 points. Now we must sprint through the finish, no matter what.
A week from today the returns start coming in. Every second between now and then I will be working like we’re behind. When the results are announced, we’ll be ready to launch our new and updated pressure campaign on Congress. Because if Democrats win the House, Senate, or both, someone still has to make sure they keep the promises they campaigned on. That somebody is us.
This is why we stay independent. No advertisers. No billionaires. No one who can water down or kill a story. It allows us to continue running the biggest social media operation against Trump and his accomplices that has ever existed—and lets us keep confronting MAGA lies with the receipts.
But we need all hands on deck. Join us as a paid subscriber and you’ll get my campaign briefing every morning through Election Day. Plus a seat with me live on Substack starting at 8:30 PM Eastern on election night as returns come in.
Fuel our sprint through November 3—and the work that starts after—by becoming a paid subscriber today:
Before you go, smash the ❤️ like button and restack this edition so the people who follow you see those turnout numbers too. Thanks for all you do.
Onward!
Scott
Has anyone in your life surprised you this year by crossing party lines? What changed their mind?
If you’re voting in the US, have you already voted, or are you going early or on Election Day?
/ meidastouch
Add the MeidasTouch Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...
Buy MeidasTouch Merch: https://store.meidastouch.com
Follow MeidasTouch on Twitter: 
/ meidastouch
Follow MeidasTouch on Facebook: 
/ meidastouch
Follow MeidasTouch on Instagram: 
/ meidastouch
Follow MeidasTouch on TikTok: 
/ meidastouch 
Seven days left, and John Roberts is 144 letters from 43,500. Start there, then grab the others:
Push John Roberts to 43,500:
https://actionnetwork.org/letters/tell-congress-impeach-supreme-court-chief-justice-john-roberts/
Keep Trump’s armed agents away from our polls:
https://actionnetwork.org/letters/tell-congress-stop-trump-from-sending-troops-to-our-polling-places/
Stop Trump’s grab for your state’s elections:
https://actionnetwork.org/letters/tell-congress-stop-trumps-move-to-take-over-state-elections/
Make Pete Hegseth resign:
https://actionnetwork.org/letters/tell-congress-demand-the-resignation-of-secretary-of-defense-pete-hegseth/
Tell me below which ones you sent.