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John Cornyn searches for an upset in brutal Republican primary runoff
We preview a Texas-sized election night across the Lone Star State
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Texas voters return to the polls on Tuesday for primary runoffs in contests where no candidate took a majority of the vote in the first round of voting on March 3, and the Republican battle for U.S. Senate once again occupies center stage.
The conclusion of the contest between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, though, is far from the only major race to watch in the Lone Star State. Both parties will finalize their nominees for the U.S. House under the new congressional gerrymander that Donald Trump pressured Republicans to pass last summer, as well as for key statewide offices.
Below, you’ll find our guide to the top races to watch in Texas. You can find an interactive map from Dave’s Redistricting App for the new congressional map.
When it’s available, we’ll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each contest, but if we don’t mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.
Polls close in most of the state at 8 PM ET/7 PM local time in the portion of Texas located in the Central time zone, which includes about 97% of the state’s population. Polls close in the rest of the state (a much smaller region in the El Paso area that’s in the Mountain time zone) one hour later.
And please join The Downballot on our private Discord server to discuss the election returns with fellow community members as they come in on Tuesday night!
TX-Sen (R) (56-42 Trump)
Republican Sen. John Cornyn was already the underdog against Attorney General Ken Paxton even before Trump endorsed the challenger a week ahead of the runoff, and the incumbent’s prospects are bleak going into the second round.
While Senate leaders have long feared that Paxton, a far-right extremist who has survived numerous scandals, could give Democrats a better chance to win their first statewide race in Texas since 1994, Trump did not heed their calls to endorse Cornyn.
Cornyn’s well-funded allies, though, are still hoping their huge spending advantage and attacks on Paxton will give the veteran senator, who has long had an uneasy relationship at best with his state’s conservative base, the chance to pull off a surprise.
The incumbent’s side is continuing to hammer the many scandals surrounding Paxton, with one recent ad warning, “This man cheated on the mother of his children.” Texas’ right-wing voters, though, have shrugged off these sorts of attacks against Paxton over the years and remained loyal to their attorney general.
The winner will take on state Rep. James Talarico, who won the Democratic nomination outright in March, in what will be a closely watched—and very expensive—general election.
TX-09 (R) (59-40 Trump)
Trump and Gov. Greg Abbott are backing opposing candidates in the Republican primary runoff for an open Democratic-held seat that the GOP radically gerrymandered to make it a near-certain flip.
Trump’s choice is Army veteran Alex Mealer, who lost a tight 2022 race to lead Harris County and then spent the better part of a year unsuccessfully challenging the result in court. Abbott is pulling for state Rep. Briscoe Cain, who chairs the state’s branch of the nihilistic Freedom Caucus in the Texas House.
Mealer finished first with 37% in the first round of voting for this Houston-area constituency, while Cain outpaced former U.S. Rep. Steve Stockman 31-17 for second. Stockman subsequently endorsed Cain for the second round.
Mealer, though, remains the favorite on Tuesday. Outside groups, including the hardline anti-tax Club For Growth, have spent over $3 million to boost her or attack Cain during the runoff, while Cain’s backers have spent just a fraction of that. A University of Houston poll conducted in early May also showed Mealer ahead 50-41.
TX-18 (D) (77-22 Harris)
The Democratic runoff is a choice between incumbents with very different resumes: Rep. Al Green, who is 78 and has represented the Houston area since 2005, and Rep. Christian Menefee, a 38-year-old who just won a special election in January.
While Green represents far more of the overhauled 18th District than his new colleague, Menefee narrowly led him 46-44 in the first round. The University of Houston’s poll early this month showed Menefee winning 50-43.
Menefee has benefited from over $4 million in runoff spending from a super PAC funded by the crypto sector, and its ads have called for Green to “pass the torch” to his younger rival. Green, who has not received any support from major outside groups, has pushed back by focusing on his record in office and touting himself as “unbought, liberated, unafraid Democrat, unbought by crypto cash.”
TX-19 (R) (75-24 Trump)
Tom Sell, the founder of a prominent lobbying firm, led conservative activist Abraham Enriquez 40-19 in the primary for this dark red constituency around Lubbock, and Sell remains the frontrunner to replace retiring GOP Rep. Jodey Arrington.
Sell released an internal poll in April showing him with a 58-17 lead over Enriquez, who has Abbott’s endorsement. Neither Enriquez nor anyone else has responded with contradictory numbers.
TX-33 (D) (65-33 Harris)
Rep. Julie Johnson is the underdog against former Rep. Colin Allred, her immediate predecessor in Congress, in a Dallas-based district that’s largely new to her.
Allred, who left the lower chamber to wage an ultimately unsuccessful campaign against Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024, unexpectedly announced last December that he was abandoning his campaign for the state’s other Senate seat and would instead try to return to the House. Allred outpaced Johnson 44-33 three months later, and he has since received endorsements from the third and fourth-place finishers.
Johnson is arguing that Allred, who portrayed himself as a moderate during his campaign against Cruz but is now highlighting his liberal positions, is a “flip-flopper” who is only now running for the House because he couldn’t win statewide.
Allred, who has brought in considerably more cash than the incumbent, has in turn gone after Johnson for buying and selling stock in Palantir, the mass surveillance firm that’s sold tools to ICE.
TX-35 (D & R) (55-44 Trump)
An obscure group with links to Republicans is meddling in the Democratic runoff by promoting Maureen Galindo, a sex therapist who has drawn widespread condemnation for her antisemitism, in an effort to block the candidate that Democratic leaders have rallied behind.
That candidate is Johnny Garcia, a Bexar County Sheriff’s deputy whom Democrats are hoping can win a Democratic-held open seat that Republicans aggressively gerrymandered. Garcia has the support of a wide cross-section of politicians and groups, including Talarico, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Galindo led Garcia 29-27 in March in a contest that attracted little money or attention. But things are very different in the runoff for this constituency, which includes part of San Antonio and rural areas to both the east and south of the city. Lead Left, an outfit that just about everyone agrees is a Republican front, has spent around $1 million on ads portraying Galindo as an ardent progressive, while Garcia’s backers have deployed even more money to counter.
The Republican runoff is a choice between Carlos De La Cruz, an Air Force veteran and the brother of Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz of the 15th District, and state Rep. John Lujan. Trump endorsed De La Cruz ahead of the first round, while Abbott threw his support behind Lujan.
Lujan led 33-27 in March, but he’s received relatively little outside help for the second round. De La Cruz’s allies, by contrast, have spent well over $1 million to aid him.
TX-38 (R) (60-39 Trump)
Mortgage broker Jon Bonck, who is Trump’s endorsed candidate, is the frontrunner to replace Rep. Wesley Hunt, a fellow Republican who gave up this seat north of Houston to wage a failed campaign for the Senate.
Bonck took 48% of the vote in March, which was almost enough for him to win outright, while former FAA official Shelly deZevallos was a distant second with 19%. Bonck’s allies released a poll early this month showing him with a similar 47-16 advantage for the runoff.
TX-AG (R & D) (56-42 Trump)
Both parties have runoffs for the race to replace incumbent Ken Paxton as attorney general, a powerful post that’s open for only the third time this century.
The Republican side pits U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, a prominent member of the nihilistic House Freedom Caucus, against state Sen. Mayes Middleton, a wealthy oil businessman who bankrolled the bloc’s state affiliate during its early years.
Roy spent the entire first round as the frontrunner, so it was a surprise when Middleton, who aired ads highlighting the congressman’s past clashes with Trump, led him 39-32 in March.
Middleton has reason to feel good going into the runoff. Aaron Reitz, who took fourth place with 14%, backed him in April (The third-place finisher, Joan Huffman, has remained neutral), and a subsequent poll from the University of Houston gave Middleton a 48-39 advantage.
But Roy, who has bashed Middleton as “a trust fund kid, who has never been in a courtroom,” remains a stubborn foe. Roy got some welcome news late in the campaign when businessman Alex Fairly donated several million dollars to his campaign, an injection that’s allowed Roy to compete with the well-heeled Middleton on the airwaves.
The Democratic contest is a choice between state Sen. Nathan Johnson and former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski, who unsuccessfully sought this office in 2022. Johnson led Jaworski 48-26 in March, though no one has released polls of the second round.
TX-LG (D) (56-42 Trump)
State Rep. Vikki Goodwin and union activist Marcos Velez are competing for the right to take on Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, a three-term Republican who holds one of the state’s most powerful posts. The Democratic nominee will have a challenging time in part because of the candidacy of Mike Collier, the 2018 and 2022 Democratic nominee who left his old party and is now running as an independent.
Goodwin led 48-31 in March, which left her in a good position going into the second round. Velez, however, is hoping his labor allies will help him mobilize voters in a runoff that will have considerably lower turnout now that the Democratic Senate and governor primaries have been resolved.
TX Railroad Commissioner (R) (56-42 Trump)
The Republican runoff for a seat on the Railroad Commission, the powerful three-member body that regulates the oil and gas industry, has attracted national notice because of the candidacy of a notorious far-right extremist.
That extremist is Bo French, a former Tarrant County GOP chair and ardent Islamophobe who has called for the deportation of 100 million people. French is challenging Republican incumbent Jim Wright, who only led 32.1 to 31.7 in March.
Abbott backed Wright after the first round, and the governor used his endorsement to warn that French “doesn’t know anything about oil and gas” and would devastate the state’s vital industry. French, though, has two of Texas’ most influential donors, Tim Dunn and Farris Wilks, in his corner.
The winner will go up against Democratic state Rep. Jon Rosenthal.
Harris County Judge (D & R) (52-46 Harris)
Both parties will choose their nominees to replace County Judge Lina Hidalgo, a Democrat who is not seeking a third term as leader of America’s third-largest county. (In Texas, the position of county judge is not judicial but rather is the equivalent of county executives elsewhere.)
The Democratic race is between former Houston Mayor Annise Parker and Letitia Plummer, a former member of the Houston City Council.
Hidalgo last year implored Democrats not to nominate Parker, but they don’t seem inclined to listen: Parker led Plummer 47-37 in March, and the University of Houston’s poll placed her ahead 54-36 earlier this month.
The Republican candidates are former County Treasurer Orlando Sanchez, who lost reelection in 2018 and came up short in the 2019 and 2023 contests for Houston controller, and Air Force veteran Warren Howell, who earned little support in the 2022 primary for the same post he’s seeking now.
Abbott had backed a third option, Houston’s firefighters union leader Marty Lancton, in the runoff, but the governor’s choice fell just short. Sanchez led with 26%, while Howell edged out Lancton 20.8 to 20.6. There have been no public polls of the GOP runoff.
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