“I Know What The Hell I’m Doing” The evidence suggests otherwise Dan Rather and Team Steady Apr 15 Credit: Getty Images Sometimes you read something so unlikely, you just know you’d better bookmark it for further contemplation. At a fundraising dinner six days ago, Donald Trump uttered the sentence, “I know what the hell I’m doing” — and sounded like he was trying to convince himself, as well as the gathered loyalists. Of all his startling comments, this one should arch eyebrows to new heights. In the ensuing days, it has been distressingly clear to everyone but his most diehard sycophants that he not only doesn’t know what he’s doing, but he also doesn’t know how to undo the mess he’s created. There was Trump today, celebrating recent stock market gains. What he didn’t mention was that markets are down 7% since his inauguration. He actually said out loud that “people didn’t understand the intent of the tariffs.” Does he? Oh, people understand. Economists are suddenly tossing around words like recession and default with regularity. If the man who bankrupted a casino, which is essentially a money-printing enterprise, truly knows what he’s doing, then why upend a robust economy complete with low unemployment, inflation in check, and a vigorous stock market? Trump claims a little pain now will be worth it in the end. But what is the end game? Teaching our global trading partners a lesson at the expense of American economic stability? Trump’s neurotic tariff policy — though one can hardly call his on-again-off-again-paused-for-some-increased-for-others tariffs a policy — and the trade war with China are rocking the economy and derailing many of the things he promised the American people. Trump vowed he would bring down grocery prices on “Day 1.” That didn’t happen. In fact, inflation is on the rise, which will make everything cost a little more. And his newly imposed tariffs will make a lot of things cost a lot more. Much of what we expect to find on American grocery shelves is not grown or made here and therefore would be subject to Trump’s new tariffs. A whopping 85% of seafood is imported. So is 80% of coffee. Crops like cocoa beans (to make chocolate), bananas, mangoes, cashews, and avocados do not grow in the U.S. in huge quantities, if at all. Some of the best beer and wine, cheese, and olive oil available at your supermarket is not produced here. All will cost more soon. Other commodities not found in the United States are rare earth metals and magnets. They exist in abundance in China. In all of Trump’s backing and forthing with tariffs, he has maintained the hardest line with China. As of this writing, Trump has imposed a 145% tariff on all Chinese imports. The metals and magnets we have imported from China are a crucial component of everything from cars and planes to smartphones and computer chips to engines and missiles. A global economy means everything is interconnected. So that 145% tariff on Chinese steel will affect U.S. workers making carpet for car interiors in South Carolina. High-priced steel will make cars more expensive, so demand will decrease. And then so will the demand for the carpet. Not to mention that even cars made in America contain components from other countries, which will cost more overnight. The United Auto Workers union is standing by Trump in the hopes that all of this hardship will lead to more manufacturing jobs in the United States. It may, but even so would likely be years down the line. And if it does happen, a U.S. auto worker earns 10 times what a Mexican auto worker does. Who will pay for the additional labor costs? The consumer. Another Trump campaign promise was to “drill, baby drill.” Not so fast. Remember that expensive steel from China? Oil companies need it to build pipelines to move all the new crude. The combination of an increase in the cost of raw materials and a slowing in demand for gasoline is making oil companies rethink plans to expand drilling. “It’s very hard for people to have the confidence to invest when markets are in a state of flux and panic, and that’s where we are now. There’s a lot of uncertainty, and that uncertainty prevents development of a lot of projects,” oil executive J. Nelson Wood told NBC News. Whole industries could be adversely affected by the massive tariff on Chinese imports. The American beauty industry, which according to the Personal Care Products Council adds $2.6 billion to the U.S. economy, imports 25,000 mass-market beauty products from China annually. Are you willing to pay almost $25 for a $10 bottle of shampoo? Probably not. The Wall Street Journal’s quarterly survey of economists conducted last week reveals an increasingly bleak outlook. The 64 economists surveyed said Trump’s tariffs and the ensuing trade war with China have caused them to increase the probability of a recession. They also believe inflation and unemployment will increase, while growth will stagnate. It appears that the American people are not willing to suffer for Trump’s economic whims. The University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment shows a sharp plunge of 11% over the last month. Sentiment is lower than at any time in the 73-year history of the survey, except for one month during the COVID pandemic. “This decline was, like the last month’s, pervasive and unanimous across age, income, education, geographic region and political affiliation,” Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director, said in a statement. A decline in consumer confidence is often the tip of a slide to an economic downturn. As consumers’ economic fears grow, their hold on their wallets tends to tighten. Consumer spending is not something to trifle with. It accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy. The president claims to know what he is doing. Even in the unlikely case that he does know, it’s clear that he doesn’t care about the collateral damage — for which We the People will have to pay. To support my team’s efforts to protect our democracy through the power of independent journalism, please consider joining as a paid subscriber. It keeps Steady sustainable and accessible for all. Thank you. No matter how you subscribe, I thank you for reading. Stay Steady, Dan