We're likely to avert a shutdown, but the clown show continues Democrats are playing the adults, coming to the aid of Republican juvenile delinquients ROBERT REICH SEP 30 Make no mistake: The force propelling a shutdown has been Donald Trump. Why? Because Trump calculates that a shutdown would play to his advantage. Because he’s no longer president, he wouldn’t be blamed — whereas Biden is viewed by the public to be in charge of government, and if the government falls into chaos, Biden will take the hit . Which is why Trump has done everything he could to shut the government down. He pushed his faction of radical MAGA Republicans to vote against any compromise. He signaled to his puppet, Speaker Kevin McCarthy, that his speakership would depend on satisfying the MAGAs. He signaled to House Republicans that the GOP was still his. But this afternoon — just hours before the government ran out of funds — House Democrats came to the aid of House Republicans and reached a deal to keep the government going for another 45 days (including funds for disaster, an extension of a federal flood insurance program, and FAA reauthorization). But in a bow to MAGA Republicans (and Trump), the deal does not include aid for Ukraine. It’s a huge symbolic victory for Putin. At this moment, it’s not clear that the Senate will go along. A procedural vote on the stopgap measure has yet to be called. (I’ll update this letter as I learn more, and try to give you background to make sense of what’s going on.) But for now, my betting is that a shutdown will be averted, mainly because House Democrats genuinely want to avoid it — not just because they understand it will hurt Biden but because most are concerned about what it will do to the economy and to vulnerable Americans. And I think the adults in the Senate will agree, despite the failure of the agreement to include aid for Ukraine. But of course this just kicks the can down the road for the next 45 days. It also elevates the issue of American support for Ukraine into a major point of contention between MAGA Republicans and the rest of the U.S. government (as well as most of the American population, if polls are to be believed). Kevin McCarthy is safe for now. No obvious replacement could attract a majority of House votes. Yet the House GOP looks awful, at least to those of us who are paying attention. Its absurd effort to impeach Biden on the basis of zero evidence of wrongdoing, its eleventh hour desperate outreach to House Democrats to keep the government running, its abject failure to do the public’s business — all of this must be remembered when it comes time to elect a new Congress next year. More to come. RR