| | |  | BY MYAH WARD | | CRYSTAL BALL — Voters are heading to the polls on Tuesday for the first time since the Supreme Court released its bombshell ruling overturning Roe v. Wade. That historic, precedent-busting ruling paves a path for dozens of states to swiftly ban abortion — and the timing of that decision is throwing the country into uncharted political territory during a midterm year. It’s not clear the role abortion will play in the remaining primaries, or, for that matter, in November, when voters ultimately decide which party holds the power from statehouses to Capitol Hill. But Tuesday’s primaries in Colorado, Illinois, New York, Oklahoma and Utah, runoffs in Mississippi and South Carolina, and Nebraska’s special election will likely provide a glimpse into what’s to come. With that in mind, Nightly checked in with POLITICO’s in-house experts. We wanted to know how the Dobbs decision changed the way they’re watching Tuesday’s races — and what in particular they’ll be keeping an eye on. Here’s what they had to say: “I’m looking for the first concrete signs of how the decision might affect Democratic primaries and the party as a whole going forward this year. In 2018, we saw a powerful swell of interest in female candidates in Democratic primaries all over the country — do we see evidence of anything like that happening this time? Are there any shifts in turnout that we can reasonably categorize as a response to the Dobbs ruling?” — Scott Bland, politics editor “I’ll be watching women candidates in tight races in Illinois. Rep. Marie Newman is trailing Rep. Sean Casten, so if she crosses the finish line, it might indicate that abortion rights supporters gravitated to her — even though Casten holds the same views. The same goes for races in IL-07, in which Justice Democrats-backed Kina Collins is trailing veteran Rep. Danny Davis, an abortion rights supporter who was just endorsed by President Joe Biden. “A Collins victory would indicate that the Roe decision had an impact. And in the newly drawn IL-03, the race is tight between Chicago Ald. Gil Villegas and state Rep. Delia Ramirez. As in the other Democratic races, Villegas and Ramirez both support abortion rights. I’m also watching IL-01 — a race that has 17 Democrats in the primary, including an anti-abortion pastor, Chris Butler, who is backed by former Congressman Dan Lipinski — an anti-abortion Democrat who lost to Newman in the last cycle. Lipinski was on robocalls urging support of Butler. The race is a wild card because there are so many candidates, including Jonathan Jackson, the Rev. Jesse Jackson’s son. The winner could win with as much as 20 percent of the vote. If Butler does well, it will indicate Lipinski’s anti-abortion message sunk in with voters.” — Shia Kapos, reporter and author of Illinois Playbook “With both parties so well-sorted by abortion, primaries aren’t often the place to find major divides on the issue. But one of the races I’m watching: the GOP primary for Senate in Colorado. Businessman Joe O’Dea is the establishment pick there, and he says he supports abortion rights — rare for a Republican, but an electoral asset in a state that’s become a Democratic stronghold. It’s one of the reasons why Democrats have meddled in the primary to elevate O’Dea’s more extreme opponent, state Rep. Ron Hanks, who opposes the right to an abortion in all circumstances. A Democratic-linked outside group has spent just shy of $4 million on ads that either trumpet Hanks’ right-wing credentials or attack O’Dea’s, seeking either to bruise O’Dea ahead of a matchup with Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet — or deny O’Dea the nomination entirely.” — Steven Shepard, senior campaign and elections editor and chief polling analyst “New York passed a series of laws to strengthen abortion rights in advance of the Roe decision, and Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul has highlighted the state’s efforts in a series of ads in the run-up to her primary against Long Island Rep. Tom Suozzi and New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams. “Hochul is a big favorite in the race, and she is expected to use a big win as a springboard for the November elections — when she would look to be the first elected woman governor in state history. “If she wins the primary, she could face a Republican foe who is does not support abortion. Out of the four GOP candidates running in their own primary Tuesday, only businessman Harry Wilson support abortion rights, and he is an underdog. “So if Wilson loses, protecting abortion rights in New York is likely to be a major topic, particularly for Hochul in the coming months.” — Joseph Spector, New York editor Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at mward@politico.com or on Twitter at @MyahWard. Keep reading for more insight from our reporters.
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Illinois state Sen. Darren Bailey speaks to the crowd as former President Donald Trump stands behind him at a rally in Mendon, Ill., Saturday, June 25, 2022. | Mike Sorensen/Quincy Herald-Whig via AP | “As an lifelong Illinois resident, I’m looking at the state’s gubernatorial race as a sign for how the statehouse may lean in coming years on national issues like abortion. I’m curious to see how GOP leaders and voters would respond to a more powerful and aggressively anti-abortion party, especially should Darren Bailey win the gubernatorial nomination. One poll showed nearly two-thirds of Republican voters in the state supportedoverturning Roe v. Wade. As the Midwest’s most central abortion sanctuary state, Illinois Democrats would need to maintain the state’s blue stronghold status. “As for other states, Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt in May signed one of the most restrictive abortion laws in the country, while both Oklahoma and Utah’s ‘trigger laws’ went into effect following the fall of Roe last week. In other words, the states already have some of the strongest bans on the books. But both are red states, one with a Trump-endorsed governor, and the top three Republican leaders in Utah are facing primary challenges from even more right-leaning candidates. While there is little more legislators could ban on the abortion front, some say a less-moderate Legislature could signal further action on adjacent issues like birth control or in vitro fertilization procedures — though there there’s little evidence that’s in the works as of now.” — Marissa Martinez, state policy and politics reporter “The big question about Roe is how much it will matter to voters in November. I don’t think we’re likely to learn a ton about that on Tuesday, given the recency of the ruling and the fact that these are party primaries, not general elections. But there are two things that might give us some hints. “The first is turnout, especially in states with big cities full of younger, left-leaning, low-propensity voters. Primary participation is typically a weak indicator of general election turnout, so we shouldn’t read too much into it. But these are also the first elections we’re seeing in a post-Roe world. If turnout does explode, we’ll have our first real sign that Roe could be a base motivator in the fall. “The second thing is what happens late Tuesday night, when the winners give their victory speeches. This is when candidates begin to frame up the general election, and what role Roe plays in that should tell us a lot about the shape of the campaign. For Republicans, the politics of Roe are treacherous. Do the party’s nominees on Tuesday avoid the subject or embrace it? Do they make one quick, base-pleasing mention and then pivot quickly to the economy? “And what about the Democrats? There’s been some debate within the party about how to message on Roe — whether to treat it as a standalone or combine it with guns and other perceived excesses of the right to paint the GOP as ‘extreme.’ We’ll get an early indication of how Democrats will approach that question on Tuesday night.” — David Siders, national political correspondent “Friday’s ruling is, of course, what everyone who works in Congress or on the campaigns is talking about this week. But I’m not convinced we’re going to get a decisive Roe-related takeaway in the dozens of primaries happening on Tuesday. (In primaries, it’s a lot harder for candidates to paint a contrast between themselves and their opponents when they all agree on an issue.) “Still, there’s one race I’m paying closer attention to: It’s a member-on-member race in Illinois, where Democratic Reps. Sean Casten and Marie Newman are battling it out in the Chicago suburbs. Newman — who ousted a sitting Democrat last cycle largely because of his anti-abortion stance — has made abortion one of her signature issues in Congress. The liberal freshman has talked about her own abortion . And she has the backing of key abortion rights groups, such as Planned Parenthood and NARAL Pro-Choice America, as well as the powerful pro-women group Emily’s List. “But any outcome in Illinois’ 6th District might not be so politically clear-cut. Tragically, Casten’s 17-year-old daughter died earlier this month , putting a halt to most campaigning. Both candidates’ spending was largely put on hold, though ad buys have come through, especially from Casten, in the final days. He put out his own ad last week declaring that he is ‘100 percent pro-choice and always will be’ in the days before the Roe was overturned. “Newman is also under the cloud of an ethics probe: Congress’ nonpartisan panel is investigating whether she promised to hire a political rival in exchange for his support. Outside groups have used it as a key attack point in ads against her, including this one from the centrist, pro-Israel group Democratic Majority For Israelcalling her a ‘corrupt politician.’” — Sarah Ferris, congressional reporter
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Learn how Meta is helping build the metaverse. | | | | | HEATING UP — When it comes to protecting abortion rights, Democrats want Joe Biden to get aggressive. And fast. Frustration is building among liberals over what some see as a slow executive response from the president–despite weeks to prepare following POLITICO’s publication of a draft majority opinion. White House officials contend that things are more complicated than they seem, but that’s doing little to turn down the temperature in the party, write Burgess Everett, Sarah Ferris, Adam Cancryn and Jonathan Lemire. “He made a strong statement the day of. I would have liked to see some more specific actions rolled out,” said Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), who leads the Congressional Progressive Caucus. “We all knew this was coming.” It’s not a full Democratic pile-on yet, even as the party’s base rages after the conservative-leaning high court stripped a nationwide right to abortion. That’s in part because Democrats recognize that Biden’s hands are somewhat tied–and Congressional dynamics don’t allow for a robust response. Nonetheless, lawmakers like Jayapal and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) are pressing the president for a more urgent counterattack. Among their ideas: covering expenses for federal employees who need to travel to receive abortion services, helping pay for out-of-state abortions, enshrining abortion access for active-duty military and opening up federal lands to abortion counseling and procedures. Some Democrats are even examining whether tribal governments could help provide abortion services.
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| Read more of POLITICO’s coverage on where the abortion fight goes next: — The Supreme Court has chipped away at the Voting Rights Act for 9 years. This case could be the next blow — Pelosi lays out Roe options — The major abortion news in the 4 days since Roe v. Wade was overturned — In states that allow abortion for rape and incest, finding a doctor may prove impossible — Top Biden officials press insurers on contraceptive coverage — Will health insurers continue to cover abortion now that Roe has been overturned?
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| | DON'T MISS DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED: Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today. | | | | | | | — Jan. 6 committee announces surprise Tuesday hearing: In an unexpected announcement with about 24 hours’ notice, the select committee scheduled a Tuesday hearing “to present recently obtained evidence and receive witness testimony.” What’s not clear: who’ll be called to testify or what evidence will be presented. The shift was particularly jarring after the panel had foreshadowed a two-week hiatus to assess and analyze a flood of new evidence. — Eastman says phone seized by federal agents: John Eastman, the attorney who developed former President Donald Trump’s last-ditch strategy to seize a second term, said in court today that he had his phone seized by federal agents last week. In a court filing in federal court in New Mexico, Eastman indicated he was confronted by agents when leaving a restaurant. He’s moving for a judge to order his phone returned. — U.S. envoy headed to Qatar to revive Iran nuclear talks: The likelihood of a breakthrough is low, but these are the first such talks in months. They are coming together following efforts by European officials to get both sides, but in particular Iran, back on board. Up to now, most of the discussions on reviving the deal had been held in Vienna, Austria; they’ve stalled since March. Iran, meanwhile, has advanced its nuclear program significantly. — Supreme Court sides with high school coach over 50-yard-line prayers: The Supreme Court today ruled in favor of a Washington state football coach who was suspended over his on-field prayers. The decision, largely breaking 6-3 along the Court’s usual ideological lines, found that the school system infringed on the coach’s religious freedom and free-speech rights. The school district had told the justices that his actions were coercive, and players’ parents complained their children on the team felt compelled to participate. The Court’s ruling is in line with a series of recent decisions in favor of religious litigants. — American basketball star Brittney Griner ordered to trial in Russia: WNBA star Brittney Griner was ordered to stand trial Friday by a court near Moscow on cannabis possession charges, about 4 1/2 months after her arrest at an airport. The Phoenix Mercury center and two-time U.S. Olympic gold medalist also was ordered to remain in custody for the duration of her criminal trial. Griner could face 10 years in prison if convicted on charges of large-scale transportation of drugs. Fewer than 1 percent of defendants in Russian criminal cases are acquitted, and unlike in the U.S., acquittals can be overturned.
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| | | | | ZELENSKYY REQUESTS AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy today urged G-7 leaders to supply his country with sophisticated missile defense systems and additional aid that would tilt the war against Russia in Ukraine’s favor as quickly as possible, writes David M. Herszenhorn. Zelenskyy also requested greater financial assistance for his war-ravaged country, as well as additional sanctions against Russia to continue punishing the Kremlin for its invasion, according to a summary of Zelenskyy’s remarks issued by his office and according to Western officials who listened to his comments. Speaking by video link to the leaders of the world’s major democratic economic powers, who are gathered in the Bavarian mountains of Germany for a summit, Zelenskyy described a missile attack that struck Kyiv, his capital, on Sunday. Jake Sullivan, the U.S. national security adviser who is attending the summit with Biden, told reporters in Elmau that Washington is preparing to grant Zelenskyy’s request on air defense systems, and also working with allies to funnel additional weapons and funds. NATO FORCES BALLOON — NATO will boost its high-readiness forces to more than 300,000 troops, the alliance’s chief announced today, in part of plans that he described as “the biggest overhaul of our collective defense and deterrence since the Cold War.” The current NATO response force comprises approximately 40,000 troops, writes Lili Bayer. Under new plans, set to be endorsed at the NATO leaders’ summit in Madrid later this week, allies will place more weapons in the east — and designate forces that will be responsible for defending the area. Many of these forces will not be permanently stationed on the eastern flank, instead rotating through the region for training.
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| | Industry Leaders at One-Day Tech Event on July 21: The American dream is a MerITocracy – powered by policy and technology as they relate to education and workforce, global competitiveness, security and privacy, and citizen services. On July 21, join tech industry visionaries from Dell, Google Cloud, DocuSign, and Consumer Technology Association, in addition to Hill and Biden Administration leaders as they discuss the future of tech innovation, regulation, and outcomes for America at MeriTalk’s MerITocracy 2022: American Innovation Forum. Sign up here. | | | | | | | | |
62 percent The percentage of voters who said it was “very” or “somewhat important” for a candidate in the 2022 midterms to support abortion access, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll taken after the Supreme Court’s landmark ruling on Friday. |
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Argentine women protest today against the U.S. Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade, in Buenos Aires, Argentina. | Natacha Pisarenko/AP Photo | | |
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