POLITICO NIGHTLY: Ohio’s Senate primary tests the Trump bump

 

BY NATALIE ALLISON Presented by VISA Inc. J.D. Vance, a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Ohio, speaks at a campaign rally in Cuyahoga Falls, Ohio. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images BUCKEYE BOOST VS. BOOMERANG — It’s Primary Election Day Eve, perhaps a holiday observed only by POLITICO reporters and readers, in Ohio. In roughly 24 hours, the messiest, most expensive primary we’ve seen this midterm cycle — the one most likely to result in a debate-stage fist fight — will be close to settled. A field as splintered as Ohio’s would force a runoff election in other states, including the upcoming primaries in North Carolina, Georgia and Alabama. But not in the Buckeye State, where, once polls close and the ballots are tallied, there will be a Republican nominee for Senate, even though the leading candidates are polling in the 20s. (A last-minute write-in campaign for “J.D. Mandel” could slow this process down.) As you’ve surely been told, the outcome will offer a degree of insight into the power of Donald Trump’s endorsement — particularly whether it has decisive sway over voters in the final days of a race that has inundated Ohio residents with $70 million in GOP advertisements. (The spending spree among Pennsylvania’s Republican Senate candidates is far lower, just shy of $50 million, with two weeks to go.) Trump took a risk in endorsing J.D. Vance in mid-April, despite Vance having never led the crowded field of candidates vying for the former president’s support. Now, Vance has been first in at least five publicly released polls that were conducted after the Trump endorsement. Real Clear Politicsnotes that his lead averaged to 3.5 points in two surveys that were in the field the last several days. But right behind him is Matt Dolan, who is testing whether it’s possible to win a Republican primary without hitching yourself to Trump. The state senator lingered at the very back of the pack at the start of the race. A new poll out today by the Trafalgar Group, which specializes in GOP races, put Dolan in second place behind Vance. Those results are similar to a survey released last weekshowing Dolan in first place, though Dolan’s opponents privately dismissed those results, noting that Blueprint Polling is a Democratic firm. Trump’s big entrance into the Ohio Senate primary seems to have boosted two candidates, then: Vance, the candidate he endorsed – and Dolan, the candidate who has gone out of his way to distance himself from Trump. Dolan has unapologetically denounced Trump’s claims that the 2020 election was stolen, and he suggested that Trump’s “failure of leadership” led to the Jan. 6 Capitol attack. Trump also attacked Dolan just after he announced his Senate bid in September — lambasting him for the name change of Major League Baseball’s Cleveland Indians to the Cleveland Guardians, a franchise his family owns. Dolan has also stayed out of the monthslong fight among Vance, state treasurer Josh Mandel, businessman Mike Gibbons and former Ohio GOP chair Jane Timken to determine who is the truest MAGA candidate. Instead, his TV ads — $9 million worth — focus on his own record and platform, touching on issues like funding police, closing the southern border and fighting to keep open Toledo’s Line 5 pipeline. All the while, Dolan’s campaign has been quick to push back on labels of being anti-Trump or a Never Trumper, saying Dolan voted twice for Trump and has committed to do so again if Trump is the party’s 2024 nominee. He has said throughout the campaign he agreed with Trump’s policies. Dolan’s surge at the end of the campaign comes as Gibbons and Timken seem to have lost their appeal to some Republican voters, several polls show, and as undecideds are forced to pick a candidate before Election Day. Even before the Trump endorsement, Gibbons’ slip coincided with lackluster debate performances (includinghaving to explain why he said womenwere never oppressed), while Timken’s advertising budget appeared to run out in recent weeks. A Mandel win is certainly not out of the question. But neither is a win by Vance, the candidate Trump endorsed late in the game, as he was trailing in polls — or a win by Dolan, the candidate who said he didn’t need Trump’s support at all. And it’s the Dolan-mentum that has come as the biggest shock to political observers both in the state and in D.C., who, for months, saw his bid as little more than a wealthy man’s vanity project while he polled in the single digits. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at nallison@politico.com, or on Twitter at @natalie_allison.   A message from VISA Inc.: Digital Payments are a lifeline to small businesses. Visa is taking action now to help small businesses by making it less costly to accept digital payments. Visa extends additional support to small businesses | Visa |   WHAT'D I MISS? — Aid groups: Biden’s $33B for Ukraine skimps on humanitarian needs: Leading aid groups want Congress to ramp up funding for food and other global humanitarian needs exacerbated by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, saying not enough of President Joe Biden’s new $33 billion request is devoted to such concerns . The aid groups are drafting a letter laying out their worries to senior U.S. lawmakers who oversee appropriations. They calculate that less than 6 percent of Biden’s latest funding request is directly aimed at relieving an immediate humanitarian crisis that has rippled well past Ukraine’s borders. At least $5 billion is urgently needed for food and nutrition assistance, some say. — Blinken to unveil ‘no surprises’ China strategy pre-Asia push: Multiple sources say that Secretary of State Antony Blinken will underscore the administration’s existing policy toward China modeled on that inherited from the Trump administration . The speech will render a topline overview of the strategy rather than details on its mechanics, which along with the complete text of the document itself won’t be made public. But the speech will provide needed clarity to government agencies, foreign governments and the ruling Chinese Communist Party that the administration’s China-focused policy and regulatory moves align with a cohesive blueprint — with specific foreign policy objectives. — Jan. 6 committee asks three pro-Trump GOP lawmakers for testimony: The Jan. 6 select committee requested testimony from three more House Republicans who are connected to the push by Donald Trump and his allies to overturn the 2020 election that ultimately metastasized into the Capitol riot . Congressional investigators sent requests for voluntary interviews to Reps. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), Ronny Jackson (R-Texas) and Mo Brooks (R-Ala.). It’s not clear if the three lawmakers will comply, but there’s ample precedent for them to decline: Three other Republican lawmakers previously targeted by the panel for questioning all rejected the requests, including House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, and Jan. 6 committee members have expressed hesitancy to subpoena their congressional colleagues. — DeSantis says he ‘rejected’ invite to White House Correspondents’ Dinner: The Florida Republican, who criticizes all things perceived to be part of the political establishment, said today that his office “rejected” an invite to Saturday night’s White House Correspondents’ Association annual dinner. He said it was a “lie” for event organizers to in any way associate his name with the event. — Supreme Court rules against Boston in Christian flag case: A unanimous Supreme Court ruled today that Boston violated the free speech rights of a conservative activist when it refused his request to fly a Christian flag on a flagpole outside City Hall. Justice Stephen Breyer wrote for the court that the city discriminated against the activist, Harold Shurtleff, because of his “religious viewpoint,” even though it had routinely approved applications for the use of one of the three flagpoles outside City Hall that fly the U.S., Massachusetts and Boston flags.   INTRODUCING DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED:  Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today.     AROUND THE WORLD MOSCOW GETS SHARP BRUSHBACK FROM JERUSALEM — Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid today condemned comments by his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov that Hitler had Jewish blood as “unforgivable and outrageous,” Louis Westendarp writes. During an interview on Italian television Sunday night, Lavrov claimed that Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy being Jewish does not negate his country having a Nazi element — a line pushed by Moscow to justify its lethal invasion. “I believe that Hitler also had Jewish blood; some of the worst anti-Semites are Jews,” Lavrov added. Israel was quick to hit back and summoned the Russian ambassador. “Foreign Minister Lavrov’s remarks are both an unforgivable and outrageous statement, as well as a terrible historical error,” Lapid said in a statement. “The lowest level of racism against Jews is to accuse Jews themselves of anti-Semitism,” he added.   A message from VISA Inc.:     NIGHTLY NUMBER 68 percent The share of American adults who say they would feel comfortable going to a museum, the highest since Morning Consult began tracking, in a new survey.   HAPPENING NOW - MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: Go inside the 25th annual Milken Institute Global Conference with our special edition Global Insider newsletter, featuring exclusive coverage and insights from one of the world’s most influential gatherings. Stay up to speed with the latest from #MIGlobal, which brings together 3,000 of the world’s most powerful leaders and features 700+ speakers representing more than 80 countries. Don’t miss out, subscribe today.     PARTING WORDS People gather at a UFO-themed mural in Hiko, Nev. | Mario Tama/Getty Images HILL TO NATSEC COMMUNITY: THERE’S STILL SOMETHING OUT THERE — Lawmakers receiving the latest secret briefings on UFOs say national security agencies aren’t taking seriously the reports of highly advanced aircraft of unknown origin violating protected airspace, Bryan Bender writes. Members of the Senate Intelligence and Armed Services committees received classified progress reports in recent weeks on a series of new data collection efforts the Pentagon and spy agencies are now required to pursue to more rigorously investigate reports of UFOs, three people with direct knowledge confirmed. But some leading sponsors of recent legislation want more analysts and surveillance systems dedicated to determining the aircrafts’ origin — and not just more reports of their existence. One of those lawmakers is Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), a member of both committees who has called the phenomena “an urgent issue” and for the first time is expressing her public dissatisfaction at the response. “Senator Gillibrand believes that the DoD needs to take this issue much more seriously and get in motion,” said one of her aides, who requested anonymity in order to discuss private conversations. “They have had ample time to implement these important provisions, and they need to show us that they are prepared to address this issue in the long-term.”   A message from VISA Inc.: Looking to the future to help small businesses succeed. The prosperity of small businesses is not only important for the health of the global economy during periods of uncertainty, but for the everyday strength and vibrancy of our local communities. As the future of money continues to evolve, it is critical that small businesses have the resources and support they need to succeed and keep up with big retail in the increasingly digital economy. Visa extends additional support to small businesses | Visa|   Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Chris Suellentrop @suellentrop Tyler Weyant @tweyant Myah Ward @myahward   FOLLOW US

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