The looming Trump-cession Orange man bad (for the economy). Noah Berlatsky Aug 4 Trump with supporters as he leaves the White House on Friday. (Win McNamee/Getty) 🗣️ Paid subscribers keep Public Notice free. If you appreciate our fiercely independent coverage of American politics, please sign up and support us. 👇 The July jobs numbers, released last Friday, could not have been much bleaker. The economy undershot the projection of 100,000 new jobs significantly, adding only 73,000. Even worse, the numbers for May and June were revised down by a ghastly 285,000 jobs. That means that the economy created only 33,000 jobs in May and June combined — anemic growth the likes of which we haven’t seen the final months of President Trump’s first term. In contrast, under President Biden, the economy gained some 420,000 jobs in May and June 2024. Trump’s response was as unhinged and authoritarian as you’d expect. In an unprecedented move, he abruptly fired Erika McEntarfer, the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and as an excuse lied that the jobs numbers were “phony.” Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com REPORTER: Why did you fire the head of the bureau of labor statistics? TRUMP: Because I thought her numbers were wrong Fri, 01 Aug 2025 21:12:05 GMT View on Bluesky Of course, the numbers were not phony. They were actually exactly what you’d expect given Trump’s relentless effort to destroy the robust economy left to him by Biden. The president usually has limited control over the economy, with downturns being caused by events beyond his or her control. In this case, however, Trump’s policies are directly responsible for job losses, rising prices, wavering confidence, and a speedrun towards what looks like stagflation. Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com Meet the Press put together a supercut of Trump being for the BLS jobs numbers before he turned against them Sun, 03 Aug 2025 14:19:00 GMT View on Bluesky Flashing red The jobs report is bad news. But it’s hardly the only sign that the economy is heading to a dark place. The overall unemployment rate last month ticked up to 4.2 percent, but more worrying is the increase in Black unemployment to 7.2 percent. That’s the highest rate since December 2021, when the economy was still struggling to emerge from the covid pandemic. Black workers are often the last hired and the first fired. As a result Black unemployment rates often shoot up first when a serious economic downturn is on the horizon. Trump's hopeless tariffs confusion, explained by a historian Aaron Rupar and Thor Benson · Mar 27 Read full story The economy is also struggling with stubborn inflation that will only be exacerbated by Trump’s inflationary tariff policies. Current inflation indicators are all bad. The personal consumption price index has prices rising 0.3 percent from May to June, which means they’ve risen 2.6 percent from last year. Usually, a hot job market can mean increased inflation, while lower inflation can lead to slower job growth. In the final years of Biden’s presidency, the US managed to achieve both low inflation and record low unemployment. But Trump has reversed that. And now we may be looking at the worst of both worlds — stagflation, when jobs stagnate and prices spike. The last time the US experienced serious stagflation was in the late 1970s under Jimmy Carter — and that’s a big part of what led to Carter’s landslide loss to Reagan in 1980. Most presidents do not want to suffer Jimmy Carter’s fate and so attempt to avoid massive unemployment, high inflation, and especially the combination of the two. Trump, in contrast, has been laser focused throughout his term on killing jobs and jacking up prices. A note from Aaron: Enjoying this article from Noah? Then please sign up to support our work 🚀 Paid subscribers keep PN free for everyone 🚀 While Trump claims that his senseless tariff fetish will somehow lead to awesome trade deals, the truth is that he’s simply imposing massive arbitrary taxes on consumer goods. Taxing goods raises prices. The nonpartisan Yale Budget Lab has concluded that the effective tariff rate under Trump is around 18.3 percent, the highest since 1934. That means that households will be paying an extra $2,400 each in taxes to the government on purchases. Tariffs are a regressive tax — they are hardest to absorb for lower income households, since the taxes are a higher percentage of their income. Even worse, lower income households tend to be especially dependent on imported goods, which are often cheaper than domestic products. Ernie Tedeschi, director of the Yale Budget Lab, told NPR that Trump’s tariffs seem “almost tailor made” to harm lower income workers the most. Medicaid 'gamers' are the new 'welfare queens' Stephen Robinson · Jul 23 Read full story Republican own this There’s been a great deal of discussion about the damaging effect of tariffs on the economy. Less discussed is the extent to which Trump’s massive attack on jobs is likely to increase unemployment. In an effort to purge the federal government of anyone who might disagree with him, Trump has (often illegally) eliminated at least 59,000 federal workers — and the number may be significantly higher than that. The administration has also cut billions of dollars in federal funding for science, the arts, and education. "A gift for China": Daniel Drezner on the fall of US soft power Aaron Rupar and Thor Benson · Aug 2 Read full story Nor is that all. Trump’s pointlessly vicious attacks on visitors to the US — both immigrants and tourists — has frightened away people who don’t want to spend their vacation in an ICE holding cell. A recent estimate suggested that, while tourism is booming around the world, the US industry is likely to lose $29 billion because of Trump’s policies. ICE raids are also damaging US agriculture; employees are afraid to show up to work for fear that they will be hunted, detained, and even killed by government thugs. Again, it’s difficult to measure the impact, but a government assault on agriculture seems designed to slow the economy and raise food prices, adding to the array of economic woes. Trump can deny, but he can’t hide Trump could respond to bad economic news by adjusting his policies. He could stop targeting tourists. He could lower tariffs. He could release billions in congressionally allocated funding. He could rehire federal workers. All of those would directly address unemployment, inflation, or both. But of course Trump is doing none of those things. Instead, he just uses bad news as an excuse to whine and rage and get more and more fascist. Again, he has fired the head of the BLS. He’s also demanding that Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, lower interest rates. That’s an ugly attack on the Fed’s independence. It also ignores the fact that, while lowering interest rates can reduce unemployment, it can increase inflation. Ron Filipkowski @ronfilipkowski.bsky.social The demented psychopath is up. Fri, 01 Aug 2025 11:04:16 GMT View on Bluesky Among other things, Trump’s attacks on government data and the Fed hurt the economy by creating uncertainty. The markets have plunged after some of Trump’s attacks on Powell. The chaos is also weakening the dollar. Trump seems to believe that if he falsifies jobs numbers, bullies the Fed, and generally seizes all power and prevents criticism, he can make Americans believe that prices are low and jobs are plentiful. But no matter how much he rants and threatens, people are going to notice when prices at the grocery store go up and when they are fired from their jobs. And they are very likely to blame Trump and Republicans — especially when they boast about cutting jobs and throwing people out of work in sectors they’ve decided they don’t like. We don’t know how bad the economy will get. Nor can we know how much a recession or stagflation will harm Republicans at the ballot box. One thing is clear, though — no administration in history has done so much so quickly to immiserate the American people. And no administration since Herbert Hoover’s seems less willing to change course as it barrels over a cliff. Thanks for reading Public Notice. This post is public so feel free to share it. That’s it for today We’ll be back with more tomorrow. If you appreciate today’s newsletter, please do your part to keep Public Notice free by signing up for a paid subscription. Thanks for reading, and for your support.

Stephen Colbert and I — 15 years ago and tonight In 2010, I made a prediction on “The Colbert Report.” Tonight Colbert and I will meet again, on “The Late Show,” to discuss my new book, “Coming Up Short,” and perhaps that prediction, too. Robert Reich Aug 4 Friends, In 2010, I made a prediction on Stephen Colbert’s “The Colbert Report.” You can see it by clicking above. Tonight, he’s invited me on his “Late Show” to talk about my new book, Coming Up Short: A Memoir of My America. I wouldn’t be surprised if he wanted to revisit my prediction from 15 years ago. The interview will be on the CBS network; check your local listings for the time. Hope you can join us.

This is How We Win!!! MeidasTouch Network and Ben Meiselas Aug 4 By Ben Meiselas It’s Ben Meiselas. As you know, I am the co-founder of the MeidasTouch Network. As a reminder, before getting into my post, I just wanted to say at the outset that the MeidasTouch Network has grown with zero investors thanks to your subscriptions to this Substack. Please help the network continue to beat Joe Rogan and Fox News by subscribing now. Let’s get into the post. This is how we win the hearts and minds of the people. Yesterday, the MeidasTouch Network was the media sponsor of an event in Phoenix, Arizona, which featured Congresswoman Crockett, Congresswoman Ansari, and Senator Murphy. MeidasTouch Gen Z reporter Adam Mockler was the host of the event. The great team at MoveOn organized the event. Later this month, we will be in Omaha, Nebraska. The event was packed. The energy was electric. I want to start having these events in every county in the United States . It’s great that the MeidasTouch Network beats Fox News and all cable news in views. Now we need to do more in-person events and strengthen our relationships and trust one handshake at a time. We need to be at all different types of venues and on college campuses and energize people of all ages. We know our message is resonating on digital media, and we lead all news media on digital. Let’s do the same in live events as well. Let’s make it fun. Let’s make it interactive. Let’s make it exciting. Let’s showcase the best of humanity. As we get closer to announcing Meidas Canada, and then Meidas Australia, a major factor there will also be live events. I think it’s important we build links not just in this country but across the world to recognize our shared humanity. The online trolls who festered in their basements and seethed with hate and retribution have turned physical spaces into toxic dumps. We need to be the remedy and spread good vibes and love and empathy and intelligence. We can be the solution. We can be the answer. As Trump gets weaker and more desperate by the day, we need to intensify the pressure. That means we will have to be innovative and find ways to continue our expansion and strengthen this movement. Yesterday in Phoenix was a major breakthrough on that front, and it gave us a template we can repeat. Let’s gear up for another week of fighting this regime. Whatever this regime throws our way, let’s be prepared. More importantly, let’s keep going on the offense. That’s the MeidasTouch Network way. As I noted at the outset, we need your help. I am never afraid to ask for help when we need it. Your subscriptions to this Substack have made the reach and expansion of the MeidasTouch Network possible. So, if you aren’t a subscriber, please subscribe now if you are able. Meidas+ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Dispatches of alarm and hope, on politics and society, democracy and justice. Because silence is not an option. We may read and write alone, but we drive change together. The Intensified Assault on Factual Reality Firing the messenger who delivered bad economic news is the latest sign that Trump is failing. He'll manipulate more data as the economy worsens. Steven Beschloss Aug 4 Pinocchio sees Trump. (Trump photo by Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images) Don’t like that the non-partisan Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has found rising unemployment and a struggling economy? Shoot the messenger and claim she’s politically motivated and can’t be trusted. Next plan to replace this highly respected BLS commissioner with a sycophant who will deliver the statistics you want. Then: Nothing but good news! The economy is hot! America is winning! The loser, of course, is all of us. Democracy depends on an informed public. A successful economy depends on reliable data so policymakers can make informed decisions. Introduce untrustworthy information into the equation, expect an increasingly troubled economy. When facts are replaced with bloviating and propaganda, expect more chaos and confusion. But that doesn’t matter to a narcissistic despot whose main interest is to convince the public he’s succeeding at his job. Every day is a chance to prove that he is right and his enemies are wrong. Untethered from reality, he is not about to let any agency of the government doubt his fantasies. None of us should be surprised that Donald Trump on Friday fired Erika McEntarfer, the BLS commissioner who was confirmed last year with 86 senate votes. This respected labor official has had a long career at the Census Bureau and elsewhere in government—and has served under Republicans and Democrats. Vice President JD Vance was one of the senators who confirmed her as commissioner last year. But McEntarfer had to go after releasing data that displeased Trump. The July jobs report indicated slowing labor market growth with only 73,000 jobs added and an unemployment rate that rose to 4.2 percent. The report also provided another economic warning sign by revising downward the data from the previous two months—a common practice following seasonal adjustments and additional information. The report noted that the economy had added 258,000 fewer jobs in May and June than previously reported. The thin-skinned tyrant could not bear the bad news. He was not about to let facts get in the way of his delusions and lies. “In my opinion, today’s Jobs Numbers were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad,” he posted, insisting that the country is “doing GREAT!” Then one of Trump’s propagandists was sent out to spew more lies justifying his decision to fire yet another respected public servant. The BLS’ “data has been historically inaccurate and led by a totally incompetent individual,” said Taylor Rogers, a White House spokesperson. “President Trump believes businesses, households and policymakers deserve accurate data when making major policy decisions, and he will restore America’s trust in this key data.” Folks, this is the latest evidence that we have exited the world of democratic governance that depends on reliable data to make responsible decisions. Instead, we are now being held hostage by a walking, non-stop talking malignancy who refuses to let facts get in the way of his imaginary picture of winning leadership. This dangerous degradation—this war on legitimate measurement—follows an ongoing pattern of attacking researchers, agencies and watchdogs that produce disagreeable findings: Firing analysts who deliver intelligence reports he dislikes; rejecting the findings of the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office when it makes projections that don’t support his inflated boasts about the Big Beautiful Bill; firing Department of Education staff that collect data about student performance; cutting public health teams that report on substance abuse, mental health and maternal mortality; ending grants and firing scientists throughout the government; and stopping the collection of greenhouse gas emissions statistics as a precursor to cutting the regulations intended to slow the impact of climate change. As I noted in an April On-Target conversation, “This disappearance of data undermines evidence-based assessments and policymaking and increases the authoritarian regime’s control as the public lacks facts to hold them accountable.” Again, none of this is surprising. Trump has always depended on pushing propaganda. His constant repetition of lies ever since he descended his golden escalator is intended to degrade the public’s capacity to know what’s right and wrong, what’s true and false. With an increasingly ill-informed electorate, an authoritarian ruler’s power increases. You can’t trust the data, he insists, so trust what I tell you. We have not yet felt the full force of this demolition of factual reality, although we got a massive indication of it with his success at convincing his cult followers to distrust the outcome of the 2020 election and believe that the violent insurrectionists on Jan. 6 were actually peace-loving patriots who don’t belong in prison. But this latest undermining of trust in the essential data by which businesses, investors and the general public make decisions is another step toward full-fledged authoritarianism in which only the ruler’s word matters. We have every reason to worry that Trump will do his utmost to wrest control from the independent BLS and manipulate its data, causing more honest public servants to exit government. This portends increasingly turbulent days for the economy, already roiled by Trump’s moronic tariff policies. The best way through this is straight ahead. That requires expanding media literacy, supporting independent journalism that relies on facts, backing endangered public media, and holding accountable government officials who are participating in this desecration of our systems and databases. We cannot give in to this regime’s goal of convincing us that we are powerless to fight back. We must not allow ourselves to ignore what our eyes, ears and brains are telling us. We should take this latest firing as a reminder that Trump is failing—that he can only survive by stripping away the people and the information that reveal the truth. He may win a battle here and there, but this is a war that he will lose. I remain certain that the truth will ultimately prevail, but it depends on this America, America community and millions of others dedicated to democracy and factual reality—Americans who are not about to let a two-bit conman and pathological liar decide our fate.