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We started Steady almost four years ago, during a challenging time in American life. Donald Trump had just led a failed insurrection, after failing to lead us out of a global pandemic. Back then I promised to pull no punches, play no favorites, and ask questions of those who need to be held accountable. The country needed an attitude of “steady” then as it does now. The need has become even more imperative.
To that end, I suggest taking a collective deep breath and keeping a few things in mind.
Save your sanity. A Washington Post headline this morning proclaimed: “The Election is Uncertain, But It Might Not Be Close.” This takes covering one’s backside to an art form. With equivocation like that, no wonder everyone’s so anxious and exhausted, spiraling in a vortex of doomscrolling. The point is, no one knows anything for certain.
If you’re voting tomorrow, remember who put us here: Donald Trump. And it wasn’t by accident. His modus operandi is to foment division. With the help of right-wing media and MAGA extremists, he has succeeded. We are, sadly, a nation now bitterly divided. That is Trump’s legacy, and it will take all of us to undo the damage that he and his co-conspirators have done to our country. Something to think about as you mark your ballot.
Ignore these blasted polls. One should never put too much stock in polling, and that goes double for any survey coming out now. Don’t do it. Don’t read them. If the pollsters get it wrong again — 2020 being among their worst efforts ever — they may need to look for a new line of work.
Don’t expect quick results. The only measure that matters now is what happens in the voting booth, which we will know soon, though perhaps not as soon as most of us would like. The probability that we will not know who won on election night is high. The counting of mail-in ballots and triggers of automatic recounts if races are close could push the official call by several days at least. This goes for the presidential election as well as the House and Senate.
Early voting was a success. One positive change attributable to the pandemic is that significantly more Americans are able to vote early. Forty-seven states now offer early voting options — that covers 97 percent of the electorate. Sorry, New Hampshire, Alabama, and Mississippi.
It was exactly 72 years ago today, November 4, 1952, that I voted for the first time. Eisenhower won by a landslide. Last week, when I voted in my 19th presidential election, I was filled with the same sense of pride and patriotism as when I filled out my first ballot.
As of this writing, more than 77 million Americans have also voted early. If we use the high-water mark of 2020 as the measure, about half of the electorate will have voted before Election Day. That means shorter lines and potentially less chaos.
Four and a half million people have voted early in North Carolina, where officials were worried that turnout in hurricane-ravaged areas would be low. It has not been. Georgia has set a record for early voting, which could portend very high turnout. The more people who vote, the better.
Election denialism is complete bunk. Trump’s repeated and strident denials of the 2020 results coupled with his peremptory challenge of the 2024 election months in advance have done a number on the psyche of the American voter. Tens of millions don’t believe the results ahead of Election Day. For Trump, who has sown the seeds of doubt since he lost in 2020, this election is his last stand. Either he wins or he may go to prison. At a minimum, a loss means he will spend a lot of time inside a courtroom.
Steel yourself. Tomorrow night, no matter the vote count, Trump will likely declare victory. Then he will contest the results in states he lost — the smaller the margin, the more vociferous his rancor. He will then try to get his cronies in state and local election offices to “help” him. He did this in 2020. That is an important point. He tried, and he failed. Trump has played this hand before, but this time around, folks are ready. The Democratic legal team, assembled to protect voters, is 10 times larger than it was in 2020.
Voting in America is safer than ever. A lot has changed in the past four years to make U.S. elections even safer than they already were. There are plenty of reasons to trust the system — a system that has long been among the most reliable in the world.
Across the country, equipment has been upgraded. Audits have improved. Laws have made it harder to interfere with the appointment of electors and to block election certification. Democratic and Republican governors, who ultimately control the elections in their states, have defied denialism.
In the run-up to the election, some of the systems have already been tested — and they have passed. In Colorado, election officials detected a security breach and fixed it. In Pennsylvania, ballots were not mailed in time in one county, and a bloc of voters was erroneously turned away in another. Officials added extra voting days in both cases.
A blizzard of pre-election litigation from Republicans has yielded little that could disrupt voting. The courts have repeatedly denied claims of interference, which were not supported by evidence. The expected mass challenges to voter eligibility have not materialized. And there have been few reports of voter harassment.
Al Schmidt, the Republican secretary of state in Pennsylvania, has promised to hold a free and fair election in that battleground state. “There’s a lot of noise out there, and because it’s noisy, it gets a lot of attention,” Schmidt told The New York Times. “But that shouldn’t dissuade a single voter from casting their vote, whether it’s by mail, if they’ve applied already, or in person on Election Day.”
If he loses, Donald Trump will melt down and then lash out, loudly. Heed Schmidt’s advice and ignore the noise. Donald Trump is noisy; that’s where he gets his power. The worst thing for a narcissist is being ignored. To the best of your ability, ignore him and ignore his bluster. Listen to the facts. Be patient and let the lawyers fight the inevitable fights.
Finally, here’s how I feel: exhilarated, excited, and cautiously optimistic. Negativity has no home here. I am proud to be an American and proud to be part of the Steady community. Thank you all for continuing to join us on this journey. We are stronger together.
To support my team’s efforts to protect our democracy through the power of independent journalism, please consider joining as a paid subscriber. It keeps Steady sustainable and accessible for all. Thank you.
No matter how you subscribe, I thank you for reading.
Stay Steady,
Dan
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