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Morning Digest: Why Georgia (almost certainly) won't host any runoffs this year
Democrats have won three enormous overtime wins in recent years
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Leading Off
Georgia
The Libertarian Party of Georgia announced Friday that it had failed to gather the roughly 72,000 signatures necessary to place its candidates on the Nov. 3 statewide ballot, a development that dramatically lowers the chances that any race will need to be settled with a Dec. 1 runoff.
Georgia is the rare state that requires downballot candidates to earn a majority of the vote in the general election to avert a second round of voting—a practice that wound up having national consequences in 2020.
That fall, Republican Sen. David Perdue outpaced Democrat Jon Ossoff 49.7 to 47.9, a showing that would have ensured Perdue’s reelection in almost any other state. But while Libertarian Shane Hazel drew just 2.3% of the vote, that was just enough to prevent Perdue from securing the majority he needed to win outright.
As a result, Perdue and Ossoff squared off again in January of 2021 on the same evening that appointed GOP Sen. Kelly Loeffler and Democrat Raphael Warnock fought it out in a special election for the state’s other U.S. Senate seat.
(Georgia special elections operate under a different set of rules. All candidates run on a single ballot rather than in separate party primaries. If no one earns a majority of the vote, the top two contenders, regardless of party, proceed to a second round. Warnock led Loeffler 33-26 in a 20-candidate battle royale in November.)
Yet history offered Republicans reason to be optimistic that they would have an easier time turning out their voters in the runoff.
Republican Paul Coverdell had famously won a 1992 runoff against Democratic Sen. Wyche Fowler after trailing in the first round. More recently, in 2008, Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss initially led Democrat Jim Martin by only 3 percentage points in November, but he turned in a 15-point landslide just four weeks later.
Democrats across the country, though, had become considerably more eager to vote in non-presidential elections after Donald Trump won his first term in the White House. Trump’s ongoing effort to overturn his defeat against Joe Biden—the Jan. 6 riots happened the very next day—also motivated liberals to cast ballots early in the new year.
This time, Ossoff scored a 50.6 to 49.4 victory over Perdue as Warnock unseated Loeffler 51-49. Those twin come-from-behind victories gave Democrats control of the Senate.
Georgia’s GOP-dominated state government responded to the debacle by cutting the time between the general election and a potential runoff from nine weeks to just four. That modified law immediately came into play the very next cycle, when Warnock, who was seeking a full six-year term, edged out Republican Herschel Walker 49.4 to 48.5 in the first round, with Libertarian Chase Oliver securing the balance.
Again, Republicans hoped they’d benefit from the race going into overtime, but the opposite happened. Warnock instead doubled his margin from the first round and again prevailed 51-49.
No statewide runoffs were needed in 2024, but another contest that year wound up having major implications for future elections.
That’s because, to automatically secure a spot on future ballots, Georgia requires third parties like the Libertarians to receive votes equal to at least 1% of the number of eligible, registered voters in at least one statewide race in the most recent election. Libertarians had hit that mark continuously for more than three decades.
However, the only statewide race on the ballot in 2024 was for president, and as it so happened, Oliver was the Libertarian nominee. Yet despite hailing from Georgia, he secured just 0.4% in his home state—the same as his nationwide showing. That weak performance cost his party its guaranteed ballot access in the Peach State.
To restore their status, the Libertarian Party had to collect about 72,000 signatures, a figure that represents 1% of the total number of registered voters who were eligible to vote “in the last election for the office sought.”
The party first made its way onto Georgia’s ballot in 1988 through this method, back when only around 26,000 signatures were needed, and had maintained access ever since by ensuring at least one of its statewide candidates reached the necessary threshold in each election.
Last week, though, the party acknowledged that it had failed to regain access via the signature route. In a statement, it noted that the last time a third party petitioned its way onto the ballot in Georgia was in 2000. That year, far-right commentator Pat Buchanan qualified under the banner of the Reform Party, which had been founded by Ross Perot.
As a result, Georgia’s statewide elections this fall will almost certainly be limited to Democrats and Republicans, which makes it unlikely that anyone will fail to secure the majority needed to win in November. However, it’s not impossible: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes that runoffs would still be needed if write-in candidates prevent anyone from exceeding 50%.
The development comes during a pivotal election year. Ossoff is trying to fend off Republican Rep. Mike Collins for a second term, while former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, who is aiming to be the first Democrat elected governor since 1998, faces wealthy Republican Rick Jackson.
Democrats are also trying to flip several other GOP-held offices, including the pivotal posts of attorney general and secretary of state, as well as win a majority on the Public Service Commission, the powerful body that regulates public utilities.
2Q Fundraising
This is the final batch of early fundraising numbers we’re rounding up in the Digest. Be on the lookout for our second-quarter fundraising charts for Senate and House candidates, which we’ll publish shortly after Wednesday’s reporting deadline.
NH-Sen: Chris Pappas (D-inc): $3.5 million raised, $5.1 million cash on hand
OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown (D): $14.1 million raised
TN-Gov:
Marsha Blackburn (R): $2.8 million raised, $6 million cash on hand
John Rose (R): $259,000 raised, additional $4 million self-funded, $1.5 million cash on hand
Monty Fritts (R): $80,000 raised, $62,000 cash on hand
CA-45: Derek Tran (D-inc): $1.1 million raised, $3.2 million cash on hand
FL-08: Mike Haridopolos (R-inc): $680,000 raised
NC-01: Don Davis (D-inc): $1.1 million raised, $3.5 million cash on hand
NE-02: Denise Powell (D): $1.2 million raised, $980,000 cash on hand
NJ-09: Nellie Pou (D-inc): $415,000 raised, $1.8 million cash on hand
NY-17: Mike Lawler (R-inc): $1.4 million raised, $4.85 million cash on hand
PA-08: Paige Cognetti (D): $2 million raised, $3.3 million cash on hand
PA-10: Janelle Stelson (D): $2 million raised, $4.5 million cash on hand
VA-07: Eugene Vindman (D-inc): $2.3 million raised, $6.6 million cash on hand
Senate
MI-Sen
Retiring Sen. Gary Peters endorsed Rep. Haley Stevens on Monday in the race to succeed him, a decision that comes less than a month before Stevens’ closely watched Democratic primary against Abdul El-Sayed, Wayne County’s former health director.
Peters, who unexpectedly announced last year that he would not seek a third term, said as recently as May that he would not take sides in the Aug. 4 nomination contest.
The senator, though, told the Detroit News that he sees Stevens as “someone who can do that job from day one.” Peters added that the Senate is “not a place for on-the-job training,” a remark the paper interpreted as directed at El-Sayed.
El-Sayed, who has not previously held elected office, sought to use the development to bolster his image as an outsider. A spokesperson told the paper, “This is the establishment backing the establishment.”
SC-Sen
South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster announced Monday that he was appointing Darline Graham Nordone, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, to serve out the remaining months of his term, which ends in January.
Nordone, whom Donald Trump earlier that morning called for McMaster to select as an “interim Senator,” did not say whether she would run in next month’s GOP primary for a full term. Politico, though, writes that state Republicans anticipate that Nordone won’t place her name on the ballot.
If they’re right and Nordone, who will be the first woman to represent the Palmetto State in the upper chamber, doesn’t run this year, South Carolina would host its first Senate race without an incumbent since a pair of back-to-back contests in the early 2000s.
That turnover unfolded in short order after Republican Strom Thurmond and Democrat Fritz Hollings, who had combined for more than 85 years of service, chose not to run again in 2002 and 2004, respectively.
Graham was elected in 2002 to replace the arch-segregationist Thurmond, while fellow Republican Jim DeMint won the 2004 contest to succeed Hollings. DeMint later resigned in early 2013 to begin a turbulent tenure as head of the hardline Heritage Foundation. To fill the vacancy, then-Gov. Nikki Haley appointed Tim Scott, who, unlike the oft-besieged Graham, has never had trouble holding his seat.
Several South Carolina Republicans have been publicly or privately eyeing what could be a once-in-a-generation race for an open Senate seat, and the list grew still larger on Monday.
Puck’s Peter Hamby writes that Rep. Russell Fry “is making moves” for a potential bid. Fry, who secured renomination without opposition last month in the 7th Congressional District in the Myrtle Beach area, has not publicly expressed interest in seeking a promotion.
America’s most famous hiker, meanwhile, may have yet one more campaign trail left to conquer. Meg Kinnard of the Associated Press reports that former Gov. Mark Sanford is thinking about submitting his name ahead of the July 28 filing deadline. Sanford, who unexpectedly launched yet another campaign for Congress in March only to drop out a month later, has not talked about his plans.
Governors
KY-Gov
Former state House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins will announce next Tuesday that he’ll seek the Democratic nomination for Kentucky’s open governorship in 2027, FOX 56 reports.
The news came shortly before Gov. Andy Beshear, who cannot seek a third term, announced that Adkins had just stepped down after serving as his senior adviser for more than six years.
Adkins would join Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman, who launched her campaign in April, in the primary. Beshear has not publicly expressed a preference between the two longtime members of his administration.
No prominent Republicans have joined the race yet, though several have expressed interest.
WI-Gov
Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez announced Sunday evening that she’d fired her campaign manager, Kara Spencer, for what the candidate called “serious mismanagement and inaccuracies in campaign finance filings she prepared.”
Rodriguez, one of five Democrats competing in next month’s primary for Wisconsin’s open governorship, accused Spencer of including the same contributions twice in finance reports, which led the candidate to believe she had considerably more money to spend than she actually did. She told reporters the following day that she grew suspicious last week after ads didn’t air for what was supposed to be a $1 million buy.
Rodriguez, who said her campaign only has $200,000 on hand, said she would continue her campaign despite this “bump in the road.”
House
MI-07
For the first time, climate activist William Lawrence is on the receiving end of attack ads ahead of the three-way Aug. 4 Democratic primary to take on Republican Rep. Tom Barrett in Michigan’s swingy 7th District.
Until late last week, Lawrence had remained unscathed as diplomat Bridget Brink and former Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam ran commercials slamming one another while ignoring him. An outfit called Crush MAGA, however, has now spent about $660,000 against Lawrence, according to the group’s FEC filings.
“What do we really know about Will Lawrence?” the narrator asks at the start of Crush MAGA’s ad. “He says he’ll stand up to corporate interests, but financial records show he’s invested thousands in Wall Street, Big Oil, and data centers.”
Lawrence quickly pushed back.
“I had $11,000 in a retirement 401(k) fund for me and my wife,” he said in a response video. “We knew all along that the super PACs would come for us. It happens all around the country to candidates who are fighting to get big money out of politics.”
Lawrence also used his message to denounce the ad as the work of an “AIPAC-linked super PAC.”
An affiliate of Crush MAGA received at least $100,000 from AIPAC’s United Democracy Project in May. The deep-pocketed organization, though, has typically spent much greater sums when seeking to thwart a candidate it dislikes.
The offensive from Crush MAGA, which has not expressed a preference between Brink and Maasdam, began just before HuffPost reported that Lawrence had accused Black leaders of taking actions that “defangs the white left” in 2024.
“The extent to which the older generation of Black political leadership are such a pillar, frankly, for establishment, capitalist, imperialist American power through their role as this kind of traditionalist, establishment-ist pillar of the Democratic Party, it’s a big problem,” Lawrence said in an episode of his podcast.
“It’s a big problem for left politics in this country,” he continued. “And it gets us every single time. It really defangs the white left and puts us in impossible positions, really.”
Lawrence did not apologize for the remarks but expressed regret for the manner in which he made them.
“I have tremendous respect for Black community leaders, who have been at the forefront of the fight for freedom for centuries,” Lawrence told HuffPost when asked for comment. “I regret how this specific point was expressed.”
Poll Pile
MI-Sen: Data for Progress for the Working Families Party (pro-Abdul El-Sayed):
El-Sayed (D): 47, Mike Rogers (R): 46.
Rogers (R): 46, Haley Stevens (D): 45.
NC-Sen: Public Policy Polling:
Roy Cooper (D): 48, Michael Whatley (R): 44.
March: 47-44 Cooper.
NH-Sen: Peak Insights for the NRSC:
Chris Pappas (D): 43, John Sununu (R): 42.
AZ-04 (D): Braun Research for A Fight Worth Having (pro-Kai Newkirk):
Greg Stanton (inc): 46, Newkirk: 38.
WA-03 (top-two primary): Emerson College for the Northwest Progressive Institute:
John Braun (R): 26, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-inc): 25, Brent Hennrich (D): 11, John Roco (R): 5, other candidates 2% or less, undecided: 26.
WA-03: Emerson for NPI:
Braun (R): 45, Gluesenkamp Perez (D-inc): 44.
NC Supreme Court: PPP:
Anita Earls (D-inc): 44, Sarah Stevens (R): 42.
March: 43-40 Earls.
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